Some extra build up quality at the expense of game saving saves is not acceptable for me. If we can find a keeper as good as DDG and much better on the ball, then I'm all for it. But a bit more quality on the ball at the expense of saves, no thank you.
Who are the best ball playing goalkeepers that are attainable?
- Thread starter kaku06
- Start date
Disagree. A goalkeeper with ball playing abilities helps a team control games and keep possession. At times a team need to reset the play all the way back to the goalkeeper and said keeper has to be able to distribute it back to his own teammates accurately and not just hoof it mindlessly at the slightest sight of pressure.
I've seen many games where we keep the ball for a bit, get force to reset all the way back to DeGea and the next play is him losing possession with his hoofing and inaccurate distribution which robs us of more sustained control of games especially against good teams who know how to pressure other teams.
It's not just about improved distribution though. For example, standing on your line shouting "Away!" as the ball is pinged into your 6 yard box, doesn't really cut it for me.
Diogo Costa is easily the no brainer obvious choice to be our future goalkeeper has a release clause. Depends on new owners if we can afford the 60m or so.
I agree while I think that we still have major issues with AWB, Fred, McTom in possession. I am just as worried about the ball going to one of them in our 3ed as the GK so, let's first address that I say. It is AWB that is being targeted by pressing, and also Fred before the GK. It is silly imo to expect the GK to be better while outfield players are being credited for making some simple passes.
In just the past week I have seen numerous examples of goalkeepers trying to play out from the back, including some of the so called best at this particular attribute, only to end up looking like complete clowns.
3 of them lead to goals.
As more and more teams use a high press we will see this happen more often. Playing out from the back will invite more pressure, leading to more calamitous goals. Then there will be a keeper who starts throwing the ball long and launching counter attacks, which will be heralded as a new dawn and a groundbreaking moment in the game, completely redefining the role of a goalkeeper.
We'll definitely need one of those keepers if we want to challenge for honours.
3 of them lead to goals.
As more and more teams use a high press we will see this happen more often. Playing out from the back will invite more pressure, leading to more calamitous goals. Then there will be a keeper who starts throwing the ball long and launching counter attacks, which will be heralded as a new dawn and a groundbreaking moment in the game, completely redefining the role of a goalkeeper.
We'll definitely need one of those keepers if we want to challenge for honours.
Playing out from the back is great but how many keepers are single-handed ly keeping us in that Leicester match. Is it worth giving that up for sth David can work to improve on?
I trust EtH, if he wants that replacement then Raya is a no brainer. I also like the look of meslier. Or we could Henderson a chance, would cost us nothing money wise
I trust EtH, if he wants that replacement then Raya is a no brainer. I also like the look of meslier. Or we could Henderson a chance, would cost us nothing money wise
Don't think he has the spine for the big stage. Was terrible during the world cup and looked like a nervous wreck.
He's been great in the Champions League. Judging players for making a mistake at the world cup has always been nonsense (especially someone young like him). He's the best young goalkeeper in the world.
Absolutely not true with Ten Hag trying to implement a vertical positional play.
Pressing starts from the front and building up starts from the back.
We will always be hampered with De Gea because of his poor distribution.
The GK has to be adequate on the ball.
If we're judging players based on one World Cup then the same applies to our current 520+ appearances goalkeeper. Which is why we don't judge players based on one World Cup.
It was the whole tournament he looked nervy. He is playing in a league outside the top five where the pressure is much lower. Especially the premier league gives players much less time on the ball.
He is talented but calling him the best young goalkeeper in the world is premature.
It hasn't really till now under ETH, right? Sure, maybe we build up into a couple of more attacks per game, but build play really has not been our issue this season.
The issue has been, other than revitalised Rashford, we our forward line is not clinical in front of goal. Address that first.
A highly competent DDG, who has been brilliant in goal for years, saves us points and wins time and again; is not really an issue currently.
Has Big Dave inked a new contract yet?
It clearly has at times, particularly when teams have 0ressed us. He was very fortunate to get away with a terrible pass against barca. Also, while he has been good for the majority of time he has been with us he has also gone through some prolonged poor periods. I suspect ETH might want us to play a higher line next year and if so, we might also need a keeper who is more willing to leave their line.
I would take raya over him but that would also be somewhat of a risk
It has been a problem in plenty of games and De Gea by all metrics out there is an average shot stopper now too.
We can buy more than one player in the summer window.
Also De Gea almost gave a goal away with his poor ball playing in the most recent Barca match, so let's not pretend like ball playing is irrelevant to goal prevention.
I think whoever takes over united will obviously consult ETH and he may say to the new owners we must have , Target A Priorities, Target B and Target C. Looking in from the outside we can safely say the CFW Position and another Midfield 8/10 position are Priority A. The Goalkeeper with good feet and an attacking Right Back Priority B and New Young CB, back
Up 10 and back up CDM priority C.
So assuming we have £150m plus player sales and some sales are taken out of the club hands; Maguire(35)Mctominay (35) E Bailey(10) , DVB(20)A Teles (10), M Greenwood (25), B Williams (7), A Elanga (13), P Jones (F), A Tuanzebe.(F), The club receive 100-125m in player sales then we can assume ETH probably has about £250-275m as a budget, this could easily go up to £400m with the Qataris but FFP is still an a obstacle which is why we need to sell players. If you go and buy Osimhem and valverde or Kane and Bellingham the club has spent its budget.
The two players the club and manager may be undecided on are AWB and Dean Henderson, both young valuable assets. ETH has got AWB playing much better and probably worth £30-35m, the same value as D Henderson. Henderson for all his mouth is a winner and will look at what ETH is doing and think he can force DDG out plus he’s a great pen stopper and decent with his feet, he’ll get a chance. I see United leaving this decision with these two players unless Qataris take over and then there will be stupid front ended investment and both Henderson and AWB sold and replaced/upgraded by Denzil Dumfries and Diogo Costa added to probably Valverde, Osimhen,M Kudas, D Rice or Caciedo, Bellingham, Sabitzer or or Y Tielemans and J Gvardiol.in other words a stupid influx of players that will probably make the club players rostra top heavy but genuinely make united’s squad frightening.
I see under Qatar with ETH in charge two teams at his disposal ;
Team A ;
D De Gea, Dumfries*, Varane, Martinez, Shaw, Casemeiro, Bellingham*, Bruno, Antony, Osimhem*, Rashford
Team B
D Costa*, D Dalot, V Lindelof, J Gvardiol*, T Malacia,D Rice*, Ericssen, M Kudas*, Sancho, Martial, Garnaucho
Squad players T Heaton, Sabitzer, Fred, A Dialo, K Mainoo, T Mengdi
*Either Mason Greenwood or Antony Martial is getting sold and whoever stays will be the back up to a new number 9, I can see the new owners leaving this incredibly difficult and sensitive decision to the Coach ETH and if Martial wants to stay he really needs to be on the field of play for the last 3 or 4 Months of the season. I would say get rid of both and bring in two number nines but not even the Qataris could stretch to that. David De Gea will still be number one, gradually improving his kicking but should he make a mistake, Diogo Costa will take his place.
Up 10 and back up CDM priority C.
So assuming we have £150m plus player sales and some sales are taken out of the club hands; Maguire(35)Mctominay (35) E Bailey(10) , DVB(20)A Teles (10), M Greenwood (25), B Williams (7), A Elanga (13), P Jones (F), A Tuanzebe.(F), The club receive 100-125m in player sales then we can assume ETH probably has about £250-275m as a budget, this could easily go up to £400m with the Qataris but FFP is still an a obstacle which is why we need to sell players. If you go and buy Osimhem and valverde or Kane and Bellingham the club has spent its budget.
The two players the club and manager may be undecided on are AWB and Dean Henderson, both young valuable assets. ETH has got AWB playing much better and probably worth £30-35m, the same value as D Henderson. Henderson for all his mouth is a winner and will look at what ETH is doing and think he can force DDG out plus he’s a great pen stopper and decent with his feet, he’ll get a chance. I see United leaving this decision with these two players unless Qataris take over and then there will be stupid front ended investment and both Henderson and AWB sold and replaced/upgraded by Denzil Dumfries and Diogo Costa added to probably Valverde, Osimhen,M Kudas, D Rice or Caciedo, Bellingham, Sabitzer or or Y Tielemans and J Gvardiol.in other words a stupid influx of players that will probably make the club players rostra top heavy but genuinely make united’s squad frightening.
I see under Qatar with ETH in charge two teams at his disposal ;
Team A ;
D De Gea, Dumfries*, Varane, Martinez, Shaw, Casemeiro, Bellingham*, Bruno, Antony, Osimhem*, Rashford
Team B
D Costa*, D Dalot, V Lindelof, J Gvardiol*, T Malacia,D Rice*, Ericssen, M Kudas*, Sancho, Martial, Garnaucho
Squad players T Heaton, Sabitzer, Fred, A Dialo, K Mainoo, T Mengdi
*Either Mason Greenwood or Antony Martial is getting sold and whoever stays will be the back up to a new number 9, I can see the new owners leaving this incredibly difficult and sensitive decision to the Coach ETH and if Martial wants to stay he really needs to be on the field of play for the last 3 or 4 Months of the season. I would say get rid of both and bring in two number nines but not even the Qataris could stretch to that. David De Gea will still be number one, gradually improving his kicking but should he make a mistake, Diogo Costa will take his place.
It's been a massive issue this season.
As a team our current biggest weakness beyond not having a centre-forward is how weak we are (at least relative to some other top sides or ETH's Ajax) at keeping and progressing possession. That isn't just on De Gea, but it starts from the back with De Gea and moves up the pitch from there.
And because ETH isn't unaware of this weakness, it means we've spent the season going long far more often than one of his teams ideally would, especially when we face high level teams who press us.
In other words we're currently more of a long ball team than is ideal. For example, last season 23.3% of Ajax's goal kicks were lauched 40+ yards, with an average length of 29.5 yards. This season 60.6% of our goal kicks have been lauched 40+ yards, with an average length 45.9 yards. This despite Ajax having had a more obvious target for long balls in Haller than we've had for most of the season. A side who went long the least often in their league versus a side who went long 13th-least.
A massive difference in approach from ETH, which reflects the limitations of the team he inherited and the compromises he's pragmatically had to make. And chief among those limitations is a goalkeeper who simply cannot play the sort of football that Ajax side did. As long as De Gea is in the side, ETH has to keep making those compromises.
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I'd not give up De Gea at this moment unless the keeper who comes in can replace his goalkeeping abilities. He has been insane this season. He has this skill of being out of the game for long periods and still pull out amazing clutch saves, he is a big club keeper.
His only real weaknesses besides penalties is aerially and passing, but I see improvement in both. Also, he truly deserves to be along for the ride and snap up more trophies for his cabinet. He deserves that, no doubt. Great goalkeeper but we should have an actual competitor that offers better ball playing abilities, and penalty saves.
His only real weaknesses besides penalties is aerially and passing, but I see improvement in both. Also, he truly deserves to be along for the ride and snap up more trophies for his cabinet. He deserves that, no doubt. Great goalkeeper but we should have an actual competitor that offers better ball playing abilities, and penalty saves.
Which would we prefer a better GK who plays out from the back and with better passes but not so good at shot stopping or the complete opposite which we have right now… someone who saves us time and time again with his quality shot stopping, he may make the odd mistake by trying to play out from the back but surely that the coaching team have to work on this in training and improve DDG on it. If we can improve that in his game then we’ve got the complete GK.
As good as DDG? Why are you implying like he's some sort of elite shot stopper?
Under every shot stopping metric, he's AT BEST average. It has been that way for about 5 years now. The last season he has been genuinely good in is 17/18.
So DDG is;
1) An average shot stopper
2) An extremely poor sweeper
3) An extremely poor cross claimer
4) Poor to below average ball playing ability
5) Poor to below average long distributor
You seriously think we can't get someone better than that for 1/3 of his wages?
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Great use of Stats!
If you're being ironic, there are numerous analysis done comparing him other GKs across Europe. This one a few pages back for example.
DDG is literally elite at nothing. Nostalgia of the 17/18 season won't change that.
Even if we want just a pure shot stopping keeper (which we wouldn't), we can still do much better than DDG.
https://www.redcafe.net/threads/who...at-are-attainable.475285/page-4#post-30057162
The purpose of this thread is to discuss ball-playing keepers as it’s considered to be one of De Gea’s limitations. He’s (now) a below average shot stopper, and can easily be improved upon in this area as well as all others.
I said I'd do this earlier so here it goes:
Starting with goals saved relative to the average keeper:
- Using FBRef, I've compiled a table of data for every goalkeeper in the top five leagues over this season and the previous 4.
- This has been done as in my previous analysis it was identified that due to small sample sizes, unexpected results (like Kepa being amazing) were being thrown up. Due to the low scoring nature of football, players can look great over a short period of time and large samples are required to draw conclusions.
- By using Post-shot xG (sometimes referred to as xGOT, or expected goals on target), we normalise for the difficulty of shots faced. If you're unfamiliar, it's not like xG, it's a measure of the quality of a shot. It takes into account power, location and proximity of the shot to the corners of the goal. A shot rated 1 would be impossible for a goalkeeper to save, whereas one of 0 would be a guaranteed to be saved. In reality, neither of these are possible but it demonstrates how the metric works; it's a probability that the average goalkeeper would have saved a particular shot.
- I've excluded any goalkeepers who have faced less than 50 post-shot xG (works out to about 200 shots), to create reasonable sample sizes.
- Subtracting actual goals conceded from post-shot xG results in goals saved greater or less than what the average keeper would have.
- Dividing goals saved by post-shot xG faced normalises for the size of sample and also the number and quality of shots faced.
Yes, that's right, De Gea has conceded 13.4 goals more over the last five years than a statistically average goalkeeper, based on the number and quality of shot he's faced. This only takes into account shots he’s faced, so the errors against Everton or the hospital pass against Brentford aren’t considered here, making the situation even worse.
Now in fairness to him, he's played more minutes and therefore faced more shots than the majority of keepers in the list and may well have faced higher quality shots (he hasn't by the way). So let's normalise for that:
Anyone in blue has outperformed the "average goalkeeper", red means underperformance.
Takeaways:
Limitations:
- The myth of De Gea is built around his performances up to and including the 2017-18 season, he's been well below average since (he was the best shot-stopper in Europe according to PSxG that year, in case you're thinking there's something wrong with the metric).
- Maignan, Courtois, Oblak and Alisson all match the eye test as exceptional shot stoppers and their reputation is deserved.
- Whilst Kepa looks good this season, he is almost certainly on a hot streak as his longer-term performance is atrocious.
- Pau Lopez and David Raya are pretty ordinary shot-stoppers, having better seasons than their longer-term trends would suggest.
- Meslier is an average shot-stopper despite underperformance this season.
- We should stay far away from Robert Sanchez, average with his feet and a consistently awful shot-stopper
- Despite high profile errors, Lloris is an objectively decent shot stopper
- Brice Samba stands out again!
- Sample sizes could be bigger
- Trends over time aren't taken into account, a player that is regressing (Lloris?) will be propped up by previous good performances and an improving player is held back by previous performances.
- Top 5 leagues only, so sorry Diogo Costa
Excellent analysis. Especially abt Raya being above average this season. That gives me pause cuz I was thinking it's a no brainer.
That's also a great analysis.
Definite no brainer to replace DDG with another GK.
We literally lost a Europa League final where De Gea managed to concede eleven penalties in a row and missed a penalty himself. That actually happened unlike your 'maybe out of a few cups'. We also have one of the worst records for defensive set pieces in the league for years. The defensive personnel and even set piece coaches have changed but ask yourself what is the common denominator.
I meant this season not years ago ? Wierd
So I thought I'd have another play with the data and see if I could come up with something more useful. I've scored every keeper in three areas, each one is a comparison to the best in that category, 100% would be the best at that particular metric.
Caveats:
- Shot Prevention - percentage of crosses stopped and sweeping distance
- Ball Playing - accuracy of launched passes, open play passes attempted and preference for shorter passes
- Shot Stopping - Goals prevented as a percentage of post-shot xG faced, this normalises for keepers that face a lot of shots
- Score - an average of the above three scores
- Non shot stopping score - an average of shot prevention and ball playing, indication of a "modern" keeper
Top 20 for shot prevention:
- Top 5 leagues only - no Diogo Costa
- This season only - shot stopping can be quite a streaky thing, especially given that a couple of Superman saves can heavily influence this with small sample sizes, ideally this would go back further, but I can't be arsed.
- Must have played at least 10 90s - anything less and it's probably the cup keeper and as such might be against weaker opposition, plus small sample sizes are less useful. This means no Maignan
- Based on freely available data - Passes under pressure and errors leading to goals would be very useful and would add some more nuance to the "Ball Playing" metric
- Small differences in scores shouldn't be taken too seriously, the available data and analysis isn't comprehensive enough, big differences are notable in my view.
Top 20 for ball playing:
Top 20 for shot stopping:
Non shot stopping score:
Overall score:
Complete list:
Takeaways:
- There's a reason Pep bought Ederson
- Alisson has been unbelievable (despite a big drop in his claiming of crosses), imagine where they'd be now if he was average?
- We should stay far away from Meslier, the links earlier this season are a bit concerning
- DDG and Oblak are carbon copies of each other, poor at shot prevention and ball playing, and therefore look terrible when they're having a down season on shot stopping
- Sanchez and Bazunu are having pretty terrible seasons
- Rulli looks a great pickup by Ajax
- Look at our former Academy player Vanja Milinkovic-Savic!
Samba looks a superstar, but Lens only signed him in the summer, so he may be difficult to land.
I'd go with Raya, as he scores very well on the non-shot stopping stuff, claiming crosses, sweeping and ball playing, whilst still being a decent shot stopper. Combine this with only having a year left on his Brentford contract, he should be a cheap pick-up that leaves the budget for CM and ST.
Thoughts on Yehvann Diouf?
The Spanish goalie at Brentford, Raya we could get cheap. Think hes turned down a new contract and only has another year on the present one. 20-25 mill should get him.
I've mentioned this before but his distribution is the best I've seen at Old Trafford.
I haven't really watched him closely enough to see how good he is in the buildup but his long passing is obscenely accurate.
I think he'd get Rashford in behind 3 or 4 times a game.
Name a better shot stopper in world football?
On the one hand I wouldn't be surprised if ETH went after Onana now getting back his form at Inter but on the other hand I also believe ETH hasn't forgotten how Onana treated Ajax after his suspension in which Ajax completely supported him.
You've not been reading this thread closely, have you?
Has finishing been an issue this season really? Can you elaborate on that? Because I strongly disagree.
Apart from Wout, a guy who is a running body and tackling machine (no disrespect, he does a good job) missing a few chances (that didn't cost us in the end), I think we're rather overperforming considering the chances we had.
Gawd that is so unrealistic. Keep dreaming.
Then run into the crowd and scream into a baby's face.
Exactly my point. Ter Stegen used to make saves like DeGea , but looks mediocre now.
The stats posted above fail to show what is really going on.
If you read my post in full, you’ll see that it is acknowledged that using a 5 year time span broadens the sample but also blunts the ability to see if a keeper is improving or regressing. That being said, there isn’t a keeper in the world that doesn’t have up and down seasons. Given that the number of shots per game and therefore relatively small sample sizes, variance from the mean is possible over individual seasons. Flip a coin 10 times and you might get 10 heads, it’s unlikely but possible. Doesn’t mean the coin is dodgy. That being said the really good keepers, like Alisson, are merely average in their down seasons.
You should be aware that this is league performances only. Given that Barca have conceded 7 league goals all season, it’s not surprising that Ter Stegen comes out looking good. The same stats show him looking below average in the Champions League this season, which would support your assertion.
We can debate the usefulness of the metric, but let’s look at it another way. As far as I can tell, the good keepers are at the top and the poorer ones are at the bottom. Lloris is the obvious exception, and he’s being propped up by incredible form from 2018-20, and his collapse over the last two seasons, (this season especially) on this metric supports the eye test but isn’t enough to offset his earlier form yet.
Aside from De Gea, who else do you think is in the wrong place in the list according to your eye test? Given that I can’t see one, I’d say these stats show pretty well how these keepers have performed over the last five years and your perception of De Gea’s shot stopping is flawed, not the metric.
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He’s only got data for this season, so I’d be wary of taking his shot stopping this season purely at face value. Seems to be pretty average at the other stuff, but he could be someone to keep an eye on for the future.