Who are the best ball playing goalkeepers that are attainable?

[sifi36]

Eh? We've not even conceded the 3rd fewest in the PL.

3rd best defense in the continent, and you don't think the goalkeeper plays a part in that. Okay.

We’ve the third most clean sheets in Europe in all competitions, which is somewhat distorted by playing in the Europa group stages, where other clubs of our size and budget are playing in the champions league and lots of smaller clubs play fewer games, so fewer opportunities to accrue them.

If De Gea was keeping clean sheets whilst the team were giving up a lot of high quality shots (think 2017-18), is he better or worse now we’re keeping a similar number of clean sheets despite conceding half the number of shots. Or is it that the defence has got better and he’s got worse?

 

[Ladron de redcafe]

Eh? We've not even conceded the 3rd fewest in the PL.

Don't let facts get in his way

 

[Tigersam]

I apologise if this has not already been said, but could there not be a totally different way of looking at this? Instead of ball playing goalkeepers, why not convert a skillful outfield player into the actual first team keeper?

I would suggest Phil Jones at Man United. He is the right age, a tall fella and in goals is less likely to get injuries.

We don't see it much anymore (because of so many subs nowadays) but back in the day it was great when a keeper got sent off and there were no more subs available, so an outfield player would have to put the keepers shirt on, so exciting.

But seriously, at a top club like United in most matches the keeper doesn't have much to do anyway, so having a defender in goals would make some sense, would it not?

 

[stefan92]

I apologise if this has not already been said, but could there not be a totally different way of looking at this? Instead of ball playing goalkeepers, why not convert a skillful outfield player into the actual first team keeper?

I would suggest Phil Jones at Man United. He is the right age, a tall fella and in goals is less likely to get injuries.

We don't see it much anymore (because of so many subs nowadays) but back in the day it was great when a keeper got sent off and there were no more subs available, so an outfield player would have to put the keepers shirt on, so exciting.

But seriously, at a top club like United in most matches the keeper doesn't have much to do anyway, so having a defender in goals would make some sense, would it not?

Or a striker. I'll always remember Jan Koller calmly catching a ball and then totally messing up throwing it (at 2:45):

 

[Tigersam]

Or a striker. I'll always remember Jan Koller calmly catching a ball and then totally messing up throwing it (at 2:45):

Yes a striker would have advantages, especially in penalty shootouts.

Didn't Niall Quin at Man City have to go into goals following a sending off and then saved a penalty against Liverpool from.... I can't remember.

I just think a defender playing in nets would be a better fit as they are used to passing it around the back & playing out from the back which is common in the modern game.

 

[Red in STL]

Yes a striker would have advantages, especially in penalty shootouts.

Didn't Niall Quin at Man City have to go into goals following a sending off and then saved a penalty against Liverpool from.... I can't remember.

I just think a defender playing in nets would be a better fit as they are used to passing it around the back & playing out from the back which is common in the modern game.

So maybe there's hope for Maguire then

 

[Tigersam]

So maybe there's hope for Maguire then

Well actually yes, particularly in those cup games where United need a goal and the keeper goes up in injury time for a corner, it hardly ever works, but if it was Maguire - well it would be great wouldn't it.

Google Jimmy Glass if you don't believe me.

 

[Red in STL]

Well actually yes, particularly in those cup games where United need a goal and the keeper goes up in injury time for a corner, it hardly ever works, but if it was Maguire - well it would be great wouldn't it.

Google Jimmy Glass if you don't believe me.

I don't recall him but Schmeichel scored one once and I've seen a few others of the years

 

[croadyman]

Well actually yes, particularly in those cup games where United need a goal and the keeper goes up in injury time for a corner, it hardly ever works, but if it was Maguire - well it would be great wouldn't it.

Google Jimmy Glass if you don't believe me.

Scored Carlisle goal to keep them up in 99

 

[Red in STL]

Scored Carlisle goal to keep them up in 99

Ah yeah I remember that one now

 

[croadyman]

Who is the best all round keeper (forget price for now) out of

Raya
Costa
Maignan

 

[V.O.]

Who is the best all round keeper (forget price for now) out of

Raya
Costa
Maignan

Can't say I've watched massive amounts of any of them, but based on the bits I've seen, surely it's Maignan by miles, isn't it?

 

[UNITED ACADEMY]

We've conceded the third fewest goals in all of Europe, yet some people are convinced De Gea is the problem.

It’s not problem if the manager doesn’t want to evolve us to next level but it’s a problem if we want to elevate our playing style to the way how ten Hag wants us to play to play from the back in dominant and progressive way and capable to retain/recycle possession even against high press opponents, which will allow us to go toe to toe with arsenal and city.

ten Hag: good isn’t good enough.

 

[croadyman]

Can't say I've watched massive amounts of any of them, but based on the bits I've seen, surely it's Maignan by miles, isn't it?

Yeah sounds like he would be the best option if that was our only issue in first XI but we have bigger ones at progressive CM & ST

 

[sifi36]

So I thought I'd have another play with the data and see if I could come up with something more useful. I've scored every keeper in three areas, each one is a comparison to the best in that category, 100% would be the best at that particular metric.

• Shot Prevention - percentage of crosses stopped and sweeping distance
• Ball Playing - accuracy of launched passes, open play passes attempted and preference for shorter passes
• Shot Stopping - Goals prevented as a percentage of post-shot xG faced, this normalises for keepers that face a lot of shots
• Score - an average of the above three scores
• Non shot stopping score - an average of shot prevention and ball playing, indication of a "modern" keeper

Caveats:

• Top 5 leagues only - no Diogo Costa
• This season only - shot stopping can be quite a streaky thing, especially given that a couple of Superman saves can heavily influence this with small sample sizes, ideally this would go back further, but I can't be arsed.
• Must have played at least 10 90s - anything less and it's probably the cup keeper and as such might be against weaker opposition, plus small sample sizes are less useful. This means no Maignan
• Based on freely available data - Passes under pressure and errors leading to goals would be very useful and would add some more nuance to the "Ball Playing" metric
• Small differences in scores shouldn't be taken too seriously, the available data and analysis isn't comprehensive enough, big differences are notable in my view.

Top 20 for shot prevention:

Top 20 for ball playing:

Top 20 for shot stopping:

Non shot stopping score:

Overall score:

Complete list:

Takeaways:

• There's a reason Pep bought Ederson
• Alisson has been unbelievable (despite a big drop in his claiming of crosses), imagine where they'd be now if he was average?
• We should stay far away from Meslier, the links earlier this season are a bit concerning
• DDG and Oblak are carbon copies of each other, poor at shot prevention and ball playing, and therefore look terrible when they're having a down season on shot stopping
• Sanchez and Bazunu are having pretty terrible seasons
• Rulli looks a great pickup by Ajax
• Look at our former Academy player Vanja Milinkovic-Savic!

Samba looks a superstar, but Lens only signed him in the summer, so he may be difficult to land.

I'd go with Raya, as he scores very well on the non-shot stopping stuff, claiming crosses, sweeping and ball playing, whilst still being a decent shot stopper. Combine this with only having a year left on his Brentford contract, he should be a cheap pick-up that leaves the budget for CM and ST.

 

[The White Pele]

Diogo Costa. £65m release clause. I say pay it and get him here for the long-term

 

[stefan92]

So I thought I'd have another play with the data and see if I could come up with something more useful. I've scored every keeper in three areas, each one is a comparison to the best in that category, 100% would be the best at that particular metric.

• Shot Prevention - percentage of crosses stopped and sweeping distance
• Ball Playing - accuracy of launched passes, open play passes attempted and preference for shorter passes
• Shot Stopping - Goals prevented as a percentage of post-shot xG faced, this normalises for keepers that face a lot of shots
• Score - an average of the above three scores
• Non shot stopping score - an average of shot prevention and ball playing, indication of a "modern" keeper

Caveats:

• Top 5 leagues only - no Diogo Costa
• This season only - shot stopping can be quite a streaky thing, especially given that a couple of Superman saves can heavily influence this with small sample sizes, ideally this would go back further, but I can't be arsed.
• Must have played at least 10 90s - anything less and it's probably the cup keeper and as such might be against weaker opposition, plus small sample sizes are less useful. This means no Maignan
• Based on freely available data - Passes under pressure and errors leading to goals would be very useful and would add some more nuance to the "Ball Playing" metric
• Small differences in scores shouldn't be taken too seriously, the available data and analysis isn't comprehensive enough, big differences are notable in my view.

Top 20 for shot prevention:

Top 20 for ball playing:

Top 20 for shot stopping:

Non shot stopping score:

Overall score:

Complete list:

Takeaways:

• There's a reason Pep bought Ederson
• Alisson has been unbelievable (despite a big drop in his claiming of crosses), imagine where they'd be now if he was average?
• We should stay far away from Meslier, the links earlier this season are a bit concerning
• DDG and Oblak are carbon copies of each other, poor at shot prevention and ball playing, and therefore look terrible when they're having a down season on shot stopping
• Sanchez and Bazunu are having pretty terrible seasons
• Rulli looks a great pickup by Ajax
• Look at our former Academy player Vanja Milinkovic-Savic!

Samba looks a superstar, but Lens only signed him in the summer, so he may be difficult to land.

I'd go with Raya, as he scores very well on the non-shot stopping stuff, claiming crosses, sweeping and ball playing, whilst still being a decent shot stopper. Combine this with only having a year left on his Brentford contract, he should be a cheap pick-up that leaves the budget for CM and ST.

Great post, lots of work.

And it's surprising how some numbers make players look good or bad that you feel much different about when you watch them play. Noticed that with Marvin Schwäbe - everytime I watch Köln play, he looks like an excellent keeper, yet the numbers here make him look like he can only pass the ball and is shit at everything else a keeper should do. I just don't get why his stats look this bad here.

 

[sifi36]

Great post, lots of work.

And it's surprising how some numbers make players look good or bad that you feel much different about when you watch them play. Noticed that with Marvin Schwäbe - everytime I watch Köln play, he looks like an excellent keeper, yet the numbers here make him look like he can only pass the ball and is shit at everything else a keeper should do. I just don't get why his stats look this bad here.

Another poster brought up Ramsdale scoring poorly and it’s really interesting how some well regarded players appear at the top, like Alisson, Ederson, Raya, Lopes, Ter Steven and Donnaruma. They back up the eye test, yet there are examples that do not.

On Schwabë, he’s saved a penalty and looks to be very good with his feet, though he’s average on crosses (4.4% is on the low side) and sweeping (1 every two games is low) and is having a poor season on shot stopping. That being said, he was absolutely elite at shot stopping last season, which speaks to one of the caveats I mentioned in my last post. Perhaps this is why you perceive him to be better than this data suggests?

https://fbref.com/en/players/87436846/scout/365_m1/Marvin-Schwabe-Scouting-Report

 

[croadyman]

Diogo Costa. £65m release clause. I say pay it and get him here for the long-term

Could understand doing that IF it was only problem is the first XI that needed addressing

 

[NoPace]

So I thought I'd have another play with the data and see if I could come up with something more useful. I've scored every keeper in three areas, each one is a comparison to the best in that category, 100% would be the best at that particular metric.

• Shot Prevention - percentage of crosses stopped and sweeping distance
• Ball Playing - accuracy of launched passes, open play passes attempted and preference for shorter passes
• Shot Stopping - Goals prevented as a percentage of post-shot xG faced, this normalises for keepers that face a lot of shots
• Score - an average of the above three scores
• Non shot stopping score - an average of shot prevention and ball playing, indication of a "modern" keeper

Caveats:

• Top 5 leagues only - no Diogo Costa
• This season only - shot stopping can be quite a streaky thing, especially given that a couple of Superman saves can heavily influence this with small sample sizes, ideally this would go back further, but I can't be arsed.
• Must have played at least 10 90s - anything less and it's probably the cup keeper and as such might be against weaker opposition, plus small sample sizes are less useful. This means no Maignan
• Based on freely available data - Passes under pressure and errors leading to goals would be very useful and would add some more nuance to the "Ball Playing" metric
• Small differences in scores shouldn't be taken too seriously, the available data and analysis isn't comprehensive enough, big differences are notable in my view.

Top 20 for shot prevention:

Top 20 for ball playing:

Top 20 for shot stopping:

Non shot stopping score:

Overall score:

Complete list:

Takeaways:

• There's a reason Pep bought Ederson
• Alisson has been unbelievable (despite a big drop in his claiming of crosses), imagine where they'd be now if he was average?
• We should stay far away from Meslier, the links earlier this season are a bit concerning
• DDG and Oblak are carbon copies of each other, poor at shot prevention and ball playing, and therefore look terrible when they're having a down season on shot stopping
• Sanchez and Bazunu are having pretty terrible seasons
• Rulli looks a great pickup by Ajax
• Look at our former Academy player Vanja Milinkovic-Savic!

Samba looks a superstar, but Lens only signed him in the summer, so he may be difficult to land.

I'd go with Raya, as he scores very well on the non-shot stopping stuff, claiming crosses, sweeping and ball playing, whilst still being a decent shot stopper. Combine this with only having a year left on his Brentford contract, he should be a cheap pick-up that leaves the budget for CM and ST.

Nice work!

Samba cost Lens 5M, so one would think we could sign him for 15-20M and since he played 3 full Champo seasons he's used to English football.

Raya is a good passer, but sometimes I watch him and think he's just average at shot stopping. Went on the Brentford forum and they rate him really highly but think he'll probably go this summer. They say he's good at everything but penalties, and we have a Dutch coach now so we can probably just bring in a giant backup who can come off the bench and save them in cup competitions.

 

[elmo]

I apologise if this has not already been said, but could there not be a totally different way of looking at this? Instead of ball playing goalkeepers, why not convert a skillful outfield player into the actual first team keeper?

I would suggest Phil Jones at Man United. He is the right age, a tall fella and in goals is less likely to get injuries.

We don't see it much anymore (because of so many subs nowadays) but back in the day it was great when a keeper got sent off and there were no more subs available, so an outfield player would have to put the keepers shirt on, so exciting.

But seriously, at a top club like United in most matches the keeper doesn't have much to do anyway, so having a defender in goals would make some sense, would it not?

I reckon your team should try out Saliba at goalkeeper first.

 

[sifi36]

Nice work!

Samba cost Lens 5M, so one would think we could sign him for 15-20M and since he played 3 full Champo seasons he's used to English football.

Raya is a good passer, but sometimes I watch him and think he's just average at shot stopping. Went on the Brentford forum and they rate him really highly but think he'll probably go this summer. They say he's good at everything but penalties, and we have a Dutch coach now so we can probably just bring in a giant backup who can come off the bench and save them in cup competitions.

Samba has outperformed post shot xG for four out of the last five seasons, sometimes by a lot. Saved three penalties in last season’s championship playoff semi-final too right?

Combine that with his all round ability, if he were to be available for that amount, we should be biting their hand off!

Raya has performed at or around post shot xG over the last few years, with this season being his best. That would back up the average shot stopper perception. I’d also be wary of calling him a better than average shot stopper on that basis.

I might crunch the numbers for shot stopping with previous seasons data for a larger sample to weed out some of the over-performers.

 

[MyOnlySolskjaer]

So I thought I'd have another play with the data and see if I could come up with something more useful. I've scored every keeper in three areas, each one is a comparison to the best in that category, 100% would be the best at that particular metric.

• Shot Prevention - percentage of crosses stopped and sweeping distance
• Ball Playing - accuracy of launched passes, open play passes attempted and preference for shorter passes
• Shot Stopping - Goals prevented as a percentage of post-shot xG faced, this normalises for keepers that face a lot of shots
• Score - an average of the above three scores
• Non shot stopping score - an average of shot prevention and ball playing, indication of a "modern" keeper

Caveats:

• Top 5 leagues only - no Diogo Costa
• This season only - shot stopping can be quite a streaky thing, especially given that a couple of Superman saves can heavily influence this with small sample sizes, ideally this would go back further, but I can't be arsed.
• Must have played at least 10 90s - anything less and it's probably the cup keeper and as such might be against weaker opposition, plus small sample sizes are less useful. This means no Maignan
• Based on freely available data - Passes under pressure and errors leading to goals would be very useful and would add some more nuance to the "Ball Playing" metric
• Small differences in scores shouldn't be taken too seriously, the available data and analysis isn't comprehensive enough, big differences are notable in my view.

Top 20 for shot prevention:

Top 20 for ball playing:

Top 20 for shot stopping:

Non shot stopping score:

Overall score:

Complete list:

Takeaways:

• There's a reason Pep bought Ederson
• Alisson has been unbelievable (despite a big drop in his claiming of crosses), imagine where they'd be now if he was average?
• We should stay far away from Meslier, the links earlier this season are a bit concerning
• DDG and Oblak are carbon copies of each other, poor at shot prevention and ball playing, and therefore look terrible when they're having a down season on shot stopping
• Sanchez and Bazunu are having pretty terrible seasons
• Rulli looks a great pickup by Ajax
• Look at our former Academy player Vanja Milinkovic-Savic!

Samba looks a superstar, but Lens only signed him in the summer, so he may be difficult to land.

I'd go with Raya, as he scores very well on the non-shot stopping stuff, claiming crosses, sweeping and ball playing, whilst still being a decent shot stopper. Combine this with only having a year left on his Brentford contract, he should be a cheap pick-up that leaves the budget for CM and ST.

Raya is really pushing a strong case and seems attainable too. Was surprised how poor Robert Sanchez and Ramsdale are in comparison of these stats to Raya.

 

[stefan92]

That being said, he was absolutely elite at shot stopping last season, which speaks to one of the caveats I mentioned in my last post. Perhaps this is why you perceive him to be better than this data suggests?

https://fbref.com/en/players/87436846/scout/365_m1/Marvin-Schwabe-Scouting-Report

Good point, that's probably it. Especially considering that Köln in general had a run before the winter break that was just perceived as being unlucky/not fit as a team due to injuries and amount of matches, while not actually being bad. That ruins the numbers while the "eye test" says it's just not the usual level.

 

[UNITED ACADEMY]

DDG is on £19.5m per year salary.

On contrary, if we sign David Raya on 5 years contract, assume he cost 20m max and we triple his 25k pw salary, it will only cost us total fees and salary of £7.9 per year.

Not only we’re getting ball playing keeper who can handle crosses, it also has potential to save us lot of penny.

 

[mav_9me]

DDG is on £19.5m per year salary.

On contrary, if we sign David Raya on 5 years contract, assume he cost 20m max and we triple his 25k pw salary, it will only cost us total fees and salary of £7.9 per year.

Not only we’re getting ball playing keeper who can handle crosses, it also has potential to save us lot of penny.

Add to that money from selling Henderson.

 

[mav_9me]

Nice work!

Samba cost Lens 5M, so one would think we could sign him for 15-20M and since he played 3 full Champo seasons he's used to English football.

Raya is a good passer, but sometimes I watch him and think he's just average at shot stopping. Went on the Brentford forum and they rate him really highly but think he'll probably go this summer. They say he's good at everything but penalties, and we have a Dutch coach now so we can probably just bring in a giant backup who can come off the bench and save them in cup competitions.

That sounds genuinely realistic. Has to be between Raya and Samba. We may actually end up saving money while improving.

 

[MadDogg]

England gets a new manager and Pickford will be the 3rd choice behind Pope and Ramsdale, but let's sign him to replace De Gea. Then again, we did replace Schmeichel with Bosnich, so why not I guess.

Bosnich was a good keeper, arguably the third best in the league at that time we signed him (behind Schmeichel and Seaman). Injuries destroyed him pretty much immediately after he joined us, with him seemingly barely able to kick the ball anymore without his hamstring going. Ultimately seemed to lead to depression, which led to drugs, and he just spiralled completely out of control for quite a few years. Definitely question marks on his mentality and professionalism, but he had the ability.

 

[GueRed]

Bosnich was a good keeper, arguably the third best in the league at that time we signed him (behind Schmeichel and Seaman). Injuries destroyed him pretty much immediately after he joined us, with him seemingly barely able to kick the ball anymore without his hamstring going. Ultimately seemed to lead to depression, which led to drugs, and he just spiralled completely out of control for quite a few years. Definitely question marks on his mentality and professionalism, but he had the ability.

Yeah Bosnich was great on his line, great shot stopper, cat-like reflexes etc

he was linked to a lot of top clubs around Europe during his time at Villa.

kicking wasnt his strength, evident during his time at United.

but yeah his mentality by all accounts was questionable to say the least.

I remember he got arrested and spent a night in a cell a few days after signing for United for attacking a photographer!

Retired quite young if i remember

 

[colombianmancunian]

We've conceded the third fewest goals in all of Europe, yet some people are convinced De Gea is the problem.

We are living, apparently, on a world where keepers have to play with their feet instead of stoping goals.

We need a keeper than first and foremost stop shoots, other attributes are second.

 

[lex talionis]

We are living, apparently, on a world where keepers have to play with their feet instead of stoping goals.

We need a keeper than first and foremost stop shoots, other attributes are second.

Surely you must be joking. A keeper who foremost stops shots, other attributes being secondary??? Insanity.

 

[wolvored]

Although I don't mind if De Gea is leaving but none here seems expecting to get rid De Gea. We still need 3 keepers (someone, DDG, and Heaton). Signing Raya for 15m to upgrade De Gea and kind of signing to prepare for De Gea leaving in 2024 (contract expired) is sensible transfer with low consequences.

You cant have de gea as backup on his wages even if they are reduced by half. He would still probably be the 2nd highest paid goalie in the world

 

[STaphouse]

We are living, apparently, on a world where keepers have to play with their feet instead of stoping goals.

We need a keeper than first and foremost stop shoots, other attributes are second.

De Gea doesn't even stop shots very well, compared to other keepers, anymore though. He's also quite comfortably the highest paid goalkeeper in world football.

 

[Trequartistry]

Blows my mind that we’re in 2023 and we still don’t understand how much De Gea holds us back

We've conceded the third fewest goals in all of Europe, yet some people are convinced De Gea is the problem.

like come on man. Do you not watch games and see all the crosses skim his nose and he has no intention of claiming, or all the times we try play football from the back and it ends in a complete mess when being pressed because our GK loves putting defenders under pressure.

The whole ‘goals conceded’ stat, it feels like you’re essentially saying De Gea is consistently making saves that no other goalkeeper in the world can make, which is blatantly false. He just loves being extravagant with his saves which look better on the camera

 

[JB7]

We are living, apparently, on a world where keepers have to play with their feet instead of stoping goals.

We need a keeper than first and foremost stop shoots, other attributes are second.

Maybe we should sign a goalkeeper who isn't a net negative PSxG most seasons then?

 

[JB7]

The whole ‘goals conceded’ stat, it feels like you’re essentially saying De Gea is consistently making saves that no other goalkeeper in the world can make, which is blatantly false. He just loves being extravagant with his saves which look better on the camera

People genuinely believe this btw.

 

[UNITED ACADEMY]

You cant have de gea as backup on his wages even if they are reduced by half. He would still probably be the 2nd highest paid goalie in the world

I agree. DDG salary is 19.5m per year. Selling him would be great idea because we are currently limited to sign more than a 55m transfer fees and 200k p.w wages (before sell) due to new rule of FFP. Ideally will be selling DDG. I don’t think we can find buyers though so we will have to wait another year until his contract expired in 2024 expired. So signing Raya is about preparing for DDG’s departure regardless.

 

[Pronewbie]

Blows my mind that we’re in 2023 and we still don’t understand how much De Gea holds us back



like come on man. Do you not watch games and see all the crosses skim his nose and he has no intention of claiming, or all the times we try play football from the back and it ends in a complete mess when being pressed because our GK loves putting defenders under pressure.

The whole ‘goals conceded’ stat, it feels like you’re essentially saying De Gea is consistently making saves that no other goalkeeper in the world can make, which is blatantly false. He just loves being extravagant with his saves which look better on the camera

De Gea is many things but making his saves look extravagant is not it.

 

[sifi36]

The purpose of this thread is to discuss ball-playing keepers as it’s considered to be one of De Gea’s limitations. He’s (now) a below average shot stopper, and can easily be improved upon in this area as well as all others.

I said I'd do this earlier so here it goes:

• Using FBRef, I've compiled a table of data for every goalkeeper in the top five leagues over this season and the previous 4.
• This has been done as in my previous analysis it was identified that due to small sample sizes, unexpected results (like Kepa being amazing) were being thrown up. Due to the low scoring nature of football, players can look great over a short period of time and large samples are required to draw conclusions.
• By using Post-shot xG (sometimes referred to as xGOT, or expected goals on target), we normalise for the difficulty of shots faced. If you're unfamiliar, it's not like xG, it's a measure of the quality of a shot. It takes into account power, location and proximity of the shot to the corners of the goal. A shot rated 1 would be impossible for a goalkeeper to save, whereas one of 0 would be a guaranteed to be saved. In reality, neither of these are possible but it demonstrates how the metric works; it's a probability that the average goalkeeper would have saved a particular shot.
• I've excluded any goalkeepers who have faced less than 50 post-shot xG (works out to about 200 shots), to create reasonable sample sizes.
• Subtracting actual goals conceded from post-shot xG results in goals saved greater or less than what the average keeper would have.
• Dividing goals saved by post-shot xG faced normalises for the size of sample and also the number and quality of shots faced.

Starting with goals saved relative to the average keeper:

Yes, that's right, De Gea has conceded 13.4 goals more over the last five years than a statistically average goalkeeper, based on the number and quality of shot he's faced. This only takes into account shots he’s faced, so the errors against Everton or the hospital pass against Brentford aren’t considered here, making the situation even worse.

Now in fairness to him, he's played more minutes and therefore faced more shots than the majority of keepers in the list and may well have faced higher quality shots (he hasn't by the way). So let's normalise for that:

Anyone in blue has outperformed the "average goalkeeper", red means underperformance.

Takeaways:

• The myth of De Gea is built around his performances up to and including the 2017-18 season, he's been well below average since (he was the best shot-stopper in Europe according to PSxG that year, in case you're thinking there's something wrong with the metric).
• Maignan, Courtois, Oblak and Alisson all match the eye test as exceptional shot stoppers and their reputation is deserved.
• Whilst Kepa looks good this season, he is almost certainly on a hot streak as his longer-term performance is atrocious.
• Pau Lopez and David Raya are pretty ordinary shot-stoppers, having better seasons than their longer-term trends would suggest.
• Meslier is an average shot-stopper despite underperformance this season.
• We should stay far away from Robert Sanchez, average with his feet and a consistently awful shot-stopper
• Despite high profile errors, Lloris is an objectively decent shot stopper
• Brice Samba stands out again!

Limitations:

• Sample sizes could be bigger
• Trends over time aren't taken into account, a player that is regressing (Lloris?) will be propped up by previous good performances and an improving player is held back by previous performances.
• Top 5 leagues only, so sorry Diogo Costa

 

[redcucumber]

I'd be more than happy with Mike Maignan or Brice Samba.