All of your posts in this thread have been excellent. Thanks for posting. You deserve to be promoted from these posts alone.
Who are the best ball playing goalkeepers that are attainable?
- Thread starter kaku06
- Start date
What better way to expose the 'myth' of De Gea making great saves than to come out with a claim like this...
Yeah, I don't think it's fair to say that.
I think De Gea makes a lot of really great saves from medium to long range shots. His short range and 1v1 shot stopping isn't as good. Especially 1v1. 1v1's are going to be difficult, but I feel like other keepers do a much better job than De Gea does at them. His lack of proactivity sees him stay too deep and he also seems scared to go in and get hurt. I don't have stats to back it up. Just my eye test.
I feel like the best example for his problems was last season against Bern (I think).
They attacked on the break by hitting a long ball, de Gea was standing near the edge of the box, retreated to his goal while the ball was in the air and then lost the 1v1 against the striker.
If you watch that situation carefully you see that he would have gotten the ball before the striker if he hadn't moved at all (the striker's first touch was closer to the goal than DDG's initial position). A more proactive keeper likely would have left the box and had enough time to clear the ball without any problem, but just not moving would have allowed him to catch the ball right in front of the striker.
19.5m salary. If we manage to get rid that value, it can open more space in our transfer limitation for additional 45m transfer fees (9m per year of 5 years installment) and 200k p/w wages (10.4m salary).
The one I was thinking of was against Atalanta. I remember most of the fanbase were blaming Maguire, but De Gea allowed their striker to run into his 6 yard box and score. He backs off to his line and basically lets them score. He banks on trying to make a reflex save in his 6 yard box. The vast majority of PL keepers never let that happen. They might still concede, but they won't let the opposition striker close in like that.
De Gea has so many flaws, and it baffles me how so many people still consider him to be an elite level keeper in 2023.
Thanks for the compliment! I enjoy seeing what data can show, though football isn’t quite like cricket or baseball, which have discrete events that are easy to draw conclusions from. That being said, goalkeeping is probably the closest to those other sports in how they can be analysed. I just wish there was more freely available underlying data; Opta charge thousands for one season for a given league.
So I thought I'd have another play with the data and see if I could come up with something more useful. I've scored every keeper in three areas, each one is a comparison to the best in that category, 100% would be the best at that particular metric.
Caveats:
- Shot Prevention - percentage of crosses stopped and sweeping distance
- Ball Playing - accuracy of launched passes, open play passes attempted and preference for shorter passes
- Shot Stopping - Goals prevented as a percentage of post-shot xG faced, this normalises for keepers that face a lot of shots
- Score - an average of the above three scores
- Non shot stopping score - an average of shot prevention and ball playing, indication of a "modern" keeper
Top 20 for shot prevention:
- Top 5 leagues only - no Diogo Costa
- This season only - shot stopping can be quite a streaky thing, especially given that a couple of Superman saves can heavily influence this with small sample sizes, ideally this would go back further, but I can't be arsed.
- Must have played at least 10 90s - anything less and it's probably the cup keeper and as such might be against weaker opposition, plus small sample sizes are less useful. This means no Maignan
- Based on freely available data - Passes under pressure and errors leading to goals would be very useful and would add some more nuance to the "Ball Playing" metric
- Small differences in scores shouldn't be taken too seriously, the available data and analysis isn't comprehensive enough, big differences are notable in my view.
Top 20 for ball playing:
Top 20 for shot stopping:
Non shot stopping score:
Overall score:
Complete list:
Takeaways:
- There's a reason Pep bought Ederson
- Alisson has been unbelievable (despite a big drop in his claiming of crosses), imagine where they'd be now if he was average?
- We should stay far away from Meslier, the links earlier this season are a bit concerning
- DDG and Oblak are carbon copies of each other, poor at shot prevention and ball playing, and therefore look terrible when they're having a down season on shot stopping
- Sanchez and Bazunu are having pretty terrible seasons
- Rulli looks a great pickup by Ajax
- Look at our former Academy player Vanja Milinkovic-Savic!
Samba looks a superstar, but Lens only signed him in the summer, so he may be difficult to land.
I'd go with Raya, as he scores very well on the non-shot stopping stuff, claiming crosses, sweeping and ball playing, whilst still being a decent shot stopper. Combine this with only having a year left on his Brentford contract, he should be a cheap pick-up that leaves the budget for CM and ST.
Great analysis!
We should be doing what we can to get Koen Casteels out of Wolfsburg. Nearly 2m tall, top 20 for shot stopping and top 4 for ball playing. 30 years old (which is perfectly fine for a GK) - contract expires next year.
It’s a known opinion across the goalkeeping union that de Gea is a camera save merchant. He uses his opposite hand making his saves look better and harder
I like him too, though if you have a look at my next set of charts, it seems he’s an average shot stopper over the longer term, as he’s performed about as expected over the last five seasons. This season seems to be a hot one for him though!
Taking this into account and his average shot prevention, I think Raya would be a better “cheaper” option. Similarly average shot stopper, better at shot prevention and pretty good with the ball too.
How about Alison?
Too good to be playing for a mid-table team surely.
Too good to be playing for a mid-table team surely.
I think this is bollocks. A keeper for a team that gives away very little needs to have great concentration. David has that. That is what the eye test tells me.
No offence, but were your eyes resting for Brentford? Or Everton in the cup? How about the cross inside his six yard box in the Arsenal game? That’s just this season. It’s no surprise that De Gea’s only decent season, without any major errors in the last five was last season, when he was working harder than an ugly stripper. Concentration is amongst his worst qualities, look how poor he was for Spain when he’s got almost nothing to do.
any evidence to back that up?
Just get somebody, please.
feck me sideways. That opening thirty seconds. Angriest I’ve been at a goal in years. Pass it left you useless fecking halfwit. Do that, no goal. Christ.
feck me sideways. That opening thirty seconds. Angriest I’ve been at a goal in years. Pass it left you useless fecking halfwit. Do that, no goal. Christ.
The sooner we get a goalkeeper that doesn't invite pressure on to us the better
Maybe Weghorst? Couldn’t be any worse as a goalkeeper than he is as a forward.
It looks like it's a formality that Dave stays. I just hope he gets a contract that reflects the real world and we buy another one who can authentically challenge him.
Really when we need someone more commanding who can distribute the ball better too?
Why not go for the guy who displaced De Gea on the Spanish team?
Based on World Cup, he's not that safe with his kicking. Goalkeeping wise, he's nowhere near top class level. Transition from La Liga to PL from overall physicality and pace of play POV can't be underestimated. Claudio Bravo was very fine and looked top class for Barcelona, but then finished as soon as playing Man City.
Sound weird, but if we're to sign anyone ball playing Spanish keeper, signing the guy that PL proven despite them being the backup in Spain national team, maybe a safer bet.
Interesting stats, thanks for taking the time and for sharing!The purpose of this thread is to discuss ball-playing keepers as it’s considered to be one of De Gea’s limitations. He’s (now) a below average shot stopper, and can easily be improved upon in this area as well as all others.
I said I'd do this earlier so here it goes:
Starting with goals saved relative to the average keeper:
- Using FBRef, I've compiled a table of data for every goalkeeper in the top five leagues over this season and the previous 4.
- This has been done as in my previous analysis it was identified that due to small sample sizes, unexpected results (like Kepa being amazing) were being thrown up. Due to the low scoring nature of football, players can look great over a short period of time and large samples are required to draw conclusions.
- By using Post-shot xG (sometimes referred to as xGOT, or expected goals on target), we normalise for the difficulty of shots faced. If you're unfamiliar, it's not like xG, it's a measure of the quality of a shot. It takes into account power, location and proximity of the shot to the corners of the goal. A shot rated 1 would be impossible for a goalkeeper to save, whereas one of 0 would be a guaranteed to be saved. In reality, neither of these are possible but it demonstrates how the metric works; it's a probability that the average goalkeeper would have saved a particular shot.
- I've excluded any goalkeepers who have faced less than 50 post-shot xG (works out to about 200 shots), to create reasonable sample sizes.
- Subtracting actual goals conceded from post-shot xG results in goals saved greater or less than what the average keeper would have.
- Dividing goals saved by post-shot xG faced normalises for the size of sample and also the number and quality of shots faced.
Yes, that's right, De Gea has conceded 13.4 goals more over the last five years than a statistically average goalkeeper, based on the number and quality of shot he's faced. This only takes into account shots he’s faced, so the errors against Everton or the hospital pass against Brentford aren’t considered here, making the situation even worse.
Now in fairness to him, he's played more minutes and therefore faced more shots than the majority of keepers in the list and may well have faced higher quality shots (he hasn't by the way). So let's normalise for that:
Anyone in blue has outperformed the "average goalkeeper", red means underperformance.
Takeaways:
Limitations:
- The myth of De Gea is built around his performances up to and including the 2017-18 season, he's been well below average since (he was the best shot-stopper in Europe according to PSxG that year, in case you're thinking there's something wrong with the metric).
- Maignan, Courtois, Oblak and Alisson all match the eye test as exceptional shot stoppers and their reputation is deserved.
- Whilst Kepa looks good this season, he is almost certainly on a hot streak as his longer-term performance is atrocious.
- Pau Lopez and David Raya are pretty ordinary shot-stoppers, having better seasons than their longer-term trends would suggest.
- Meslier is an average shot-stopper despite underperformance this season.
- We should stay far away from Robert Sanchez, average with his feet and a consistently awful shot-stopper
- Despite high profile errors, Lloris is an objectively decent shot stopper
- Brice Samba stands out again!
- Sample sizes could be bigger
- Trends over time aren't taken into account, a player that is regressing (Lloris?) will be propped up by previous good performances and an improving player is held back by previous performances.
- Top 5 leagues only, so sorry Diogo Costa
Another aspect is sweeper clearances where the goalie often prevents a 1v1 situation by being proactive. Last season, Alison had 30 such clearances and DDG 7. High values for clearances is not only about preventing goals, it also shows a goalkeeper who contributes to holding a high line imo.
Sign the Sociedad keeper, was was unpressable when we played them.
Isn't the Porto keeper still the best option? Seemed like the natural heir last time I checked
Chelsea want him.
When we talk about ball playing keepers I always remember how many attacks Schmeichel used to start with his throws, not seen another keeper do that, for me I hate the playing out from the back all the time.
Nah. If you put him as a goalie he will actually start putting the ball in the back of the net
I like Maignan. Good all rounder, league winning experience with Lille and Milan. Could be a decent price if Milan don't get CL.
The og himself, neuer might be available.
Although he's a tad past it.
Edit : come to think of it might be worth looking into as a short term replacement if we could get him in for cheap.
Further edit: he's on shakey ground with the bayern hierarchy after a public spat regarding the dismissal of a gk coach of theirs, Here.
bayern may be looking to get rid.
Although he's a tad past it.
Edit : come to think of it might be worth looking into as a short term replacement if we could get him in for cheap.
Further edit: he's on shakey ground with the bayern hierarchy after a public spat regarding the dismissal of a gk coach of theirs, Here.
bayern may be looking to get rid.
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Could see us going big for him or Costa IF Erik is able to spend proper money in the summer
Pickford signing a new long term deal with Everton.
Could be our VDS signing
He's probably past it a bit, but the guy is the OG sweeper keeper of the modern era and a hell of a leader. I'd love him here for a season or two.
If we’re talking mid-table teams I don’t know if people here have seen much of Fulham this season but Leno has been unbelievable. He seems to thrive in the PL, and would not be a crazy price. Sifi36’s well done analysis seems to be high on him as well…
Might be your next Schweinsteiger.Could be our VDS signing
He's probably past it a bit, but the guy is the OG sweeper keeper of the modern era and a hell of a leader. I'd love him here for a season or two.
Probably, but in all honesty I never regretted Schweinsteiger joining us. He was a husk of his former self but there was something special about seeing him in a United shirt. Though the club will hopefully have a more sensible approach to transfers.
I know who the worst is.
Costa at Porto
Don't know but too much is made of this quality. Shot stoping ability wins you games. As long as the rest of the 10 players are very good on the ball, the GK can be just decent as long as he is superb at his job.
We would be a good few points down the league and maybe out of a few cups if we had any of the 'ball playing' goalkeepers in nets instead of top form ddg. He has made saves in tight league games that few other keepers would make, that has won us 6pt at a guess
But being superb at your job requires more than standing on your goal line and reacting to efforts on target.