Westminster Politics

I usually think those venturing onto Sky News whether government reps or right wing media give you a solid guess at what will come in the coming days.

Hearing them mention timing a lot so think its likely some of their plans are delayed. They'll firmly claim they'll go ahead but at a later date.
 
You get the distinct impression from the leaks that the tory response to this self made crisis is complete shock that the bankers and markets are complaining...... "we gave you more money, how can you complain, we paid you".

Hence you see all the comments about bankers being Marxist revolutionaries. They have no idea how to respond because their entire reason for that mini budget was to try and grease the wheels for their post election careers. Now the bankers are not playing along, its all "culture war" to distract.
 
sun_tzu said:
Can they cut enough?
De-linking pensions from inflation perhaps but that won't make a dent
Defence they have committed to increase spending
Hs2 probably axed but that will be dwarfed by the increase in servicing debts
Education probably too unpopular to touch that
Nhs... political suicide to defund or sell
Welfare will be cut but hard to see how it's cut too much with rising inflation

Genuinley not sure how they would cut to the extent needed... probably 15%?
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They can obfuscate cuts by not inflation linking any planned rises I guess and GDP is tanking re the defence spending pledge.

Saying that, they'll probably just U-turn and blame 'Putin's war'.
 
Jippy said:
They can obfuscate cuts by not inflation linking any planned rises I guess and GDP is tanking re the defence spending pledge.

Saying that, they'll probably just U-turn and blame 'Putin's war'.
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They can't really U-turn given that Labour supports all of their policies with the exception of less than 2% of the budgetary commitment (the 45% rate abolishment).

In fairness to Starmer he's snookered them. He's been against all of their tax rises and has been pro the vast majority of their tax cuts. He's unicorned the Tories just as they did to Labour over Brexit.

The Tories know that if they U-Turn on any policy that would have a meaningful effect on restoring faith in UK debt markets (Corporation Tax, 19% IT cut, Energy support, reversal of NI rise), Labour would hammer them on stifling business/growth/investment or punishing normal people. The Tories also know that the 45% tax rate is inconsequential in the scheme of things, so U-Turning on this would have no discernable effect on the markets whilst also playing into the fact that they're running their economic policy straight out of the Labour HQ.

Starmer has completely Boris Johnson'd the Tories.

Don't get me wrong though... Once he's inevitably elected with the Eat Your Cake & Have It Too Johnsonite politics; he'll struggle because its fiscally illiterate. Starmer will face the same choices Truss currently faces in a world of expensive crises-related debt. Whack up taxes and repress growth to fund statism; reduce public spending whilst maintaining/reducing tax to propel growth; or a mixture of the two. Like Johnson he's rules out all three of course.
 
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The Torygraph is loyal to the end. It must be so tiring seeing everything as an existential left versus right battle. Those Marxist currency and bond traders again...

Liz Truss must hold her nerve as the world tips into a calamitous recession

The elite mood music in 2022 is set by Left-wing American economists and a hysterical Twitterati that loathes Truss, Brexit and supply-side economics.... The great danger is that the Left is trying to turn our surging interest rates into an “ERM II moment”, pinning the blame on the PM’s tax cuts, while in fact the end of cheap money would have happened anyway, albeit more gradually.
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...t-hold-nerve-world-tips-calamitous-recession/
 
It's pretty fecking incredible that right wing governments have been in power for over a decade now but "the left" is still being blamed for the situation we're in.
 
finneh said:
They can't really U-turn given that Labour supports all of their policies with the exception of less than 2% of the budgetary commitment (the 45% rate abolishment).

In fairness to Starmer he's snookered them. He's been against all of their tax rises and has been pro the vast majority of their tax cuts. He's unicorned the Tories just as they did to Labour over Brexit.

The Tories know that if they U-Turn on any policy that would have a meaningful effect on restoring faith in UK debt markets (Corporation Tax, 19% IT cut, Energy support, reversal of NI rise), Labour would hammer them on stifling business/growth/investment or punishing normal people. The Tories also know that the 45% tax rate is inconsequential in the scheme of things, so U-Turning on this would have no discernable effect on the markets whilst also playing into the fact that they're running their economic policy straight out of the Labour HQ.

Starmer has completely Boris Johnson'd the Tories.

Don't get me wrong though... Once he's inevitably elected with the Eat Your Cake & Have It Too Johnsonite politics; he'll struggle because its fiscally illiterate. Starmer will face the same choices Truss currently faces in a world of expensive crises-related debt. Whack up taxes and repress growth to fund statism; reduce public spending whilst maintaining/reducing tax to propel growth; or a mixture of the two. Like Johnson he's rules out all three of course.
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The Tories have snookered themselves with ridiculous policy at ridiculous timing. But Truss is a stubborn, simple minded narcissist who doesn't want to U turn only one week into her premiership. It has feck all to do with Starmer.
 
I'm imagining Truss and Kwasi "Wabbit" Kwarteng as Thelma and Louise, the cops are the bond and currency traders and bankers, trying to stop them from crashing the economy into the canyon.

"All this for us?"

Truss turns to Kwarteng, takes his hand and says, "Let's just keep going!"
 
Standard gaslighting from Truss this morning. I'm not sure her pretending the market reaction was because of the fuel bill freeze is going to work though.
 
Mogget said:
It's pretty fecking incredible that right wing governments have been in power for over a decade now but "the left" is still being blamed for the situation we're in.
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Generations of "born to rule" ideology mixed with a press that is actively pro-tory or at best is so ideologically blind that they believe "keir starmer tanked the market in opposition" must be taken seriously to maintain "balance" :mad:

Completely fecked
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
The Tories have snookered themselves with ridiculous policy at ridiculous timing. But Truss is a stubborn, simple minded narcissist who doesn't want to U turn only one week into her premiership. It has feck all to do with Starmer.
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Thats not really true though is it? With a left wing opposition they'd have said corporation tax should be increased to more than Sunak's 25%; leaving Truss a Get out of jail option to fall back on Sunak's 25%; whilst not being seen as anti business (the lesser of two evils)

Likewise a Corbynite would likely have been against the £1m AIA which could well have given wiggle room for Tories to reduce this back down to maybe a couple of hundred thousand to raise some cash.

A more socialist opposition would likely also be against the U-Turn on NI given that this was intended to fund social care which would be a priority for a left wing government who would favour higher taxes to allow higher spend.

Truss would also be able to attack a more left wing labour party who disagreed with Stamp Duty cuts in favour of social programs as an attack on first time buyers.

A socialist government would also have to explain what additional taxes they would levy to fund nationalising rail, energy, mail etc in an environment of expensive debt and wobbly confidence. Starmer has merely made a Johnsonite suggestion of a few billion for an energy quango.

A left wing party would also be vehemently against a points based immigration system (I agree with that by the way) and would have fallen into the trap of being able to be portrayed as a "low wage, high immigration" party.

Starmer has avoided all those traps by merely agreeing with the vast majority of tax decreases and agreeing with the vast majority of spending commitments.

He's basically marketing himself as to the right of Sunak economically (he agrees with £100b to cut corporation tax, income tax, NI and freeze energy prices), but a little to the left off Truss (he disagrees with £2b of higher rate cuts).

Throw in the odd populist Johnsonite focus-group approved policy like an(other) windfall tax and he's sorted.

Starmer is basically who the Tory Parliamentary Party would have voted for if it didn't go to the members.
 
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finneh said:
They can't really U-turn given that Labour supports all of their policies with the exception of less than 2% of the budgetary commitment (the 45% rate abolishment).

In fairness to Starmer he's snookered them. He's been against all of their tax rises and has been pro the vast majority of their tax cuts. He's unicorned the Tories just as they did to Labour over Brexit.

The Tories know that if they U-Turn on any policy that would have a meaningful effect on restoring faith in UK debt markets (Corporation Tax, 19% IT cut, Energy support, reversal of NI rise), Labour would hammer them on stifling business/growth/investment or punishing normal people. The Tories also know that the 45% tax rate is inconsequential in the scheme of things, so U-Turning on this would have no discernable effect on the markets whilst also playing into the fact that they're running their economic policy straight out of the Labour HQ.

Starmer has completely Boris Johnson'd the Tories.

Don't get me wrong though... Once he's inevitably elected with the Eat Your Cake & Have It Too Johnsonite politics; he'll struggle because its fiscally illiterate. Starmer will face the same choices Truss currently faces in a world of expensive crises-related debt. Whack up taxes and repress growth to fund statism; reduce public spending whilst maintaining/reducing tax to propel growth; or a mixture of the two. Like Johnson he's rules out all three of course.
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I've no idea what Labour's position is on the corporation tax hike being canned. Has Starmer commented on that? Didn't come up in the Kuenssberg interview on Sunday.

You are ignoring the proceeds of Labour's proposed windfall tax on energy companies, which would rake in tens of billions of pounds, but you know that.
 
At what point do the adults step in and take the reins before these two genuinely bankrupt the country? This odious woman and her two-bit chancellor have a mandate of 0.3% of this country’s population.

The only good thing to come from this is it should keep the Tories out of power for a generation if cardboard cut-out Starmer can hold it together until the next GE.
 
The Boy said:
It's up there with the Mails, "Were risky pension trades behind chaos?" Definitely the marxist traders an their shady trades
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Thought you were kidding til I googled it. Bollocks article with zero supportive quotes in it, even from crank right wing economists. At least the DM comment sections are saying 'this is bollocks', not all buying at least.
 
Maticmaker said:
Yes, my friend told me the locals use to call it the 'dustbin', (something to do with its shape?) He reckons there is some improvement with the new complex, but still thinks an awful lot of money was wasted.
It's the sort of historical anomaly Labour could do with avoiding.
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True, but if it were seen as just one piece of a regeneration, I don't think it would be badly received. The timing meant that the masterplan for the town ended up getting curtailed.

Same can be said for Manchester City Council spending hundreds of millions renovating the victorian town Hall and Westminster likely to cost billions. On one hand it seems excessively wasteful, on the other hand the alternative is to let it go to ruin and spend on a new one having lost iconic historic buildings.
 
Why does every Tory seem to think they show strong leadership by completely ignoring people’s concerns and doubling down on their shit ideas.
 
Solius said:
Why does every Tory seem to think they show strong leadership by completely ignoring people’s concerns and doubling down on their shit ideas.
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Because while a GE is not yet on the horizon, it’s their peers which hold them accountable and to heir peers ignoring the people and being dogmatic with Tory ideals is a show of strength.
 
Solius said:
Why does every Tory seem to think they show strong leadership by completely ignoring people’s concerns and doubling down on their shit ideas.
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Because they don't rule for your benefit. They are demonstrating strong leadership to their paymasters if they can inflict misery without losing power.
 
finneh said:
They can't really U-turn given that Labour supports all of their policies with the exception of less than 2% of the budgetary commitment (the 45% rate abolishment).

In fairness to Starmer he's snookered them. He's been against all of their tax rises and has been pro the vast majority of their tax cuts. He's unicorned the Tories just as they did to Labour over Brexit.

The Tories know that if they U-Turn on any policy that would have a meaningful effect on restoring faith in UK debt markets (Corporation Tax, 19% IT cut, Energy support, reversal of NI rise), Labour would hammer them on stifling business/growth/investment or punishing normal people. The Tories also know that the 45% tax rate is inconsequential in the scheme of things, so U-Turning on this would have no discernable effect on the markets whilst also playing into the fact that they're running their economic policy straight out of the Labour HQ.

Starmer has completely Boris Johnson'd the Tories.

Don't get me wrong though... Once he's inevitably elected with the Eat Your Cake & Have It Too Johnsonite politics; he'll struggle because its fiscally illiterate. Starmer will face the same choices Truss currently faces in a world of expensive crises-related debt. Whack up taxes and repress growth to fund statism; reduce public spending whilst maintaining/reducing tax to propel growth; or a mixture of the two. Like Johnson he's rules out all three of course.
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You do realise that Labour are planning to pay for the price freeze on energy bills by imposing a windfall tax on the profiteering fuel companies? That alone would save considerably on borrowing.
 
TheGame said:
Looking on social media, her local interviews aren't going too well:





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Jesus fecking christ. I can genuinely feel myself losing brain cells listening to this.

Undoubtedly the stupidest PM I can ever remember. There are literally no redeeming features at all. You can see the cogs turning every time she has to answer a question outside of her proforma and she doesn't even have the mental agility to bluster like Johnson or Cameron did.

How depressing.
 
the bbc running an explainer "what are bonds?" is very much 2008 vibes.

so the boe has spent >60bn propping up the market since friday? isn't that more than the proposed taxcuts? now take the devaluation of the currency into account and mortgage issues, lending rates, etc., and this might be the worst mistake in modern british political history outside of wars.
 
Pexbo said:
Because while a GE is not yet on the horizon, it’s their peers which hold them accountable and to heir peers ignoring the people and being dogmatic with Tory ideals is a show of strength.
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Yes exactly. It is all about trying to show that you are so unbelievably clever that you and only you know that you are absolutely right and everyone else is so unbelievably stupid that they cannot understand why.
And she and her CX are prepared to trash the UK economy and put millions of peoples pensions and savings and mortgages at risk simply to give a show of strength.

It is now up to the rest of the Tory MPs to make them change course. I have written to my useless Tory MP Chris Skidmore asking him why he thinks his leader should not change course.
 
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