Westminster Politics

Jericholyte2 said:
The idea that, as you get older, you get more Conservative is objectively visible in any series of voting stats you care to check
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Is it, though? Sometime ago, I asked in this thread if anybody could post historical stats that support this theory, which now seems like an objective fact. But any figures I can find are at best mixed. For example the below shows Thatcher won the 18-24 vote easily, and you could hypothesise on the basis of that data that most of the current 60-70 year olds were always right leaning.

My own view is that your exposure to politics upon reaching adulthood probably shapes your politics for much of the rest of your life.

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-october-1974
 
sun_tzu said:
the last time interest rates were this low was erm never

hence the graph yesterday showing that as a % of take home pay a mortgage today is afordable as it was for previous generations

The main difference bing that a family on average wage now can afford an average house with the miltiples that lenders will lend whilst in the 1970s they could not
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I mean that's quite plainly not true.

1970 mortgage on a 10k house (double the average, the lowest the calculator I used would go) at approx 6% rate at the time costs 17k over it's lifetime. Average salary is 1664.

In 2021 a mortgage on a 540k house (again double the average) costs 610k at the best rates available today. Average salary is 31k.

One of those is a 10x multiple, the other 20x. I'll let you figure out which is which.
 
RedChip said:
Is it, though? Sometime ago, I asked in this thread if anybody could post historical stats that support this theory, which now seems like an objective fact. But any figures I can find are at best mixed. For example the below shows Thatcher won the 18-24 vote easily, and you could hypothesise on the basis of that data that most of the current 60-70 year olds were always right leaning.

My own view is that your exposure to politics upon reaching adulthood probably shapes your politics for much of the rest of your life.

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-october-1974
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I’ll see what I can find for evidence of this, but I’m winding down for the day. I do know that, especially recently, any votes such as General Elections, Brexit Referendum etc, has clear deviations from one to the other through age groups (Voters between 18-25yrs are Labour supporters by a massive majority and it shifts from red to blue as you go through the age groups, similar with the Brexit vote).
 
Jericholyte2 said:
I’ll see what I can find for evidence of this, but I’m winding down for the day. I do know that, especially recently, any votes such as General Elections, Brexit Referendum etc, has clear deviations from one to the other through age groups (Voters between 18-25yrs are Labour supporters by a massive majority and it shifts from red to blue as you go through the age groups, similar with the Brexit vote).
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That only shows that, in recent elections, older voters have tended to side with Tories. It doesn't mean people have generally become more right wing with age. Those older voters might have always been right wing throughout their life course, or at least easy to swing.
 
11101 said:
I mean that's quite plainly not true.

1970 mortgage on a 10k house (double the average, the lowest the calculator I used would go) at approx 6% rate at the time costs 17k over it's lifetime. Average salary is 1664.

In 2021 a mortgage on a 540k house (again double the average) costs 610k at the best rates available today. Average salary is 31k.

One of those is a 10x multiple, the other 20x. I'll let you figure out which is which.
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And in the 1970s most were one income households and now they are mostly twi

Most mortgages in the 1970s were interest only any you had an endowment or similar to pay off the capital... which you have also not factored in

I guess most fundamentally though why are you assuming somebody on average salary should be looking at a house double the average price?
 
sun_tzu said:
And in the 1970s most were one income households and now they are mostly twi

Most mortgages in the 1970s were interest only any you had an endowment or similar to pay off the capital... which you have also not factored in

I guess most fundamentally though why are you assuming somebody on average salary should be looking at a house double the average price?
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According to this most women worked in 1975 (57%) compared to 78% in 2017.
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
Suella Braverman accused of politically driven meddling over Colston Four
Senior lawyers question motives of attorney general, who says she could refer acquittal to court of appeal
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...politically-driven-meddling-over-colston-four

Beyond the pale this lot. Pulling a Trump and getting allies into positions of power to pull strings for them.
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A lot of people think she's bluffing, as it would be very risky for her to basically dare judges to turn a case that currently sets no precedent in to one that does.
 
sun_tzu said:
And in the 1970s most were one income households and now they are mostly twi

Most mortgages in the 1970s were interest only any you had an endowment or similar to pay off the capital... which you have also not factored in

I guess most fundamentally though why are you assuming somebody on average salary should be looking at a house double the average price?
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Households have become dual income through necessity, not choice!

Like i said the interest calculator i used didn't go below 10k, it makes absolutely no difference to the multiple calculation ratio.

- the salary/monthly payment multiple has doubled
- house price/wage inflation multiple has doubled
- LTVs have decreased
- help to buy schemes have decreased

So all in all, the cost to buy has doubled, mortgages are harder to come by, riskier, and access to housing has decreased.
 
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11101 said:
Households have become dual income through necessity, not choice!

Like i said the interest calculator i used didn't go below 10k, it makes absolutely no difference to the multiple calculation ratio.

- the salary/monthly payment multiple has doubled
- house price/wage inflation multiple has doubled
- LTVs have decreased
- help to buy schemes have decreased

So all in all, the cost to buy has doubled, mortgages are harder to come by, riskier, and access to housing has decreased.
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This doesn't apply to SunTzu. It's a case of "I'm alright Jack, what is everyone else complaining about...".
 
RedChip said:
That only shows that, in recent elections, older voters have tended to side with Tories. It doesn't mean people have generally become more right wing with age. Those older voters might have always been right wing throughout their life course, or at least easy to swing.
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You know what, it looks like you're right. From the looks of it there is a stark jump from 2015 onwards, circulating around Brexit...

How%20Britain%20voted%202019%20age-01.png


Age-01.png


vote1b.png


est-age.png


Looking back before this, statistics show that the older age groups do swing more Conservative, the size of the swing is far more subtle (in 2010 30% of 18-24 voted Conservative, 31% Labour vs 44/31 Conservative in the 65+ group).
 
Jericholyte2 said:
You know what, it looks like you're right. From the looks of it there is a stark jump from 2015 onwards, circulating around Brexit...

How%20Britain%20voted%202019%20age-01.png


Age-01.png


vote1b.png


est-age.png


Looking back before this, statistics show that the older age groups do swing more Conservative, the size of the swing is far more subtle (in 2010 30% of 18-24 voted Conservative, 31% Labour vs 44/31 Conservative in the 65+ group).
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Nah, I was wrong. I went looking on science direct and found this study, which seems to have found a significant age effect on voting Tory and, worryingly, not much of replacement effect (the idea that more progressive people will replace the older Tories when they die out.) Seems Tories will rule forever.
 
Pexbo said:
We’ve got him this time
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It was a working booze-up.

Look, nobody enjoyed the first lockdown but people need to be reasonable. It's a thankless task running an entire country and sometimes you need to be able to let your hair down, but the Prime Minister was actually working closely on plans to Build Back Better with his cabinet as they hung him upside down whilst he drank from a beer funnel.

I think I speak for the country when I say that we all followed the guidelines as well as we could, but we all secretly had regular parties with Bolly and swan eggs supplied by the taxpayer.

This isn't a real story and once again it's the liberal media just trying to make something out of nothing. Wouldn't you prefer to hear about how well Brexit is going?
 
Mr Pigeon said:
It was a working booze-up.

Look, nobody enjoyed the first lockdown but people need to be reasonable. It's a thankless task running an entire country and sometimes you need to be able to let your hair down, but the Prime Minister was actually working closely on plans to Build Back Better with his cabinet as they hung him upside down whilst he drank from a beer funnel.

I think I speak for the country when I say that we all followed the guidelines as well as we could, but we all secretly had regular parties with Bolly and swan eggs supplied by the taxpayer.

This isn't a real story and once again it's the liberal media just trying to make something out of nothing. Wouldn't you prefer to hear about how well Brexit is going?
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Do they do that ever morning? It would explain the hair. Actually, it would explain a lot!
 
Someone needed to drink all that booze the pubs couldn't sell.
 
Pexbo said:
Over 100 people, plus partners have kept this to themselves for 18 months.
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Honestly think this is the worst story of the lot. 100 staffers at the HEIGHT of the first lockdown when there were people legitimately calling the police on their neighbours AND it's confirmed the PM was in attendance.
 
chris123 said:
Honestly think this is the worst story of the lot. 100 staffers at the HEIGHT of the first lockdown when there were people legitimately calling the police on their neighbours AND it's confirmed the PM was in attendance.
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Hope this gets traction again. Disgraceful.
 
chris123 said:
Honestly think this is the worst story of the lot. 100 staffers at the HEIGHT of the first lockdown when there were people legitimately calling the police on their neighbours AND it's confirmed the PM was in attendance.
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Staff and spouse's. I despise this government. I had watch my 34 year old mate being buried via a video link and these absolute cnuts are having garden parties.
 
sullydnl said:
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To work out what was going on at number 10 from emails whilst they had officers stood outside it?

The drip feeding of this detail over the past couple of months is just as telling as the information itself. Sunak has been very quiet whilst all this has been going on.
 
Jericholyte2 said:
You know what, it looks like you're right. From the looks of it there is a stark jump from 2015 onwards, circulating around Brexit...

How%20Britain%20voted%202019%20age-01.png


Age-01.png


vote1b.png


est-age.png


Looking back before this, statistics show that the older age groups do swing more Conservative, the size of the swing is far more subtle (in 2010 30% of 18-24 voted Conservative, 31% Labour vs 44/31 Conservative in the 65+ group).
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:lol:I forgot about the 5% of UKIP members voting to remain:wenger:
 


This arsehole on BBC just now, with an absolute car crash of an interview.
 
Baxter said:


This arsehole on BBC just now, with an absolute car crash of an interview.
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If you lined him up with 19 other people and asked strangers to pick out who had made those comments, they'd pick him 100% of the time.
 
Paymaster General drew the short straw today... suspect hes handling it a lot better than boris will tomorrow though...

Wouldnt surprise me if boris wasnt on amazon ordering a red pen to fake a covid test and chuck gove under the bus tomorrow as PMQ's is going to be brutal
 
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