I did post in that thread but I do not believe :
applies to my input. Perhaps it was someone else.
Westminster Politics
- Thread starter altodevil
- Start date
I did post in that thread but I do not believe :
applies to my input. Perhaps it was someone else.
Hmm.
What makes no sense at all is the fantasy that just because Boris is the next PM, the EU are going to cave in to him and re-negotiate the WA which the 26 have stated and restated that it is not open for discussion.
The hard Brexiteers are putting forward a much worse position but Rory was trying to put forward a solution that had already been resoundingly rejected by parliament and by his own party on a number of occasions. At this point if you aren't for a No Deal Brexit the only palatable positions are really second vote or outright Remain.
Well. We will soon find out.
I cannot see a second referendum. No longer an option.
I cannot see the EU going back on their WA decision. Why would they.
We will then be faced with a no deal exit which Parliament will try to veto.
So. What is going to happen on October 31st.
Answer. Chaos.
And that is precisely why the only sensible option is to accept the WA and negotiate a beneficial FA while taking Gove and Javid up on their statement that the Irish Backstop can be resolved by technology; if you believe that.
Absolutely no chance of a second referendum now. Any hope of a soft Brexit/no Brexit was mortally wounded with the indicative votes fiasco and killed off by the EU elections.
It's now either some version of May's deal re-branded and pushed through by Johnson, or a no deal exit. That is it.
May's deal isn't going to happen though because the numbers aren't there for it.
The best hope for non-No Dealers is to push the government hard and aim for enough defections to bring them down and force an election. Although my suspicion is that the Tories will be Tories and choose party over country as always.
Don't be so sure.
Boris is hated by most of his own MPs. A lot of them are jumping on his bandwagon now, for two reasons. 1) He's popular amongst the general public, and might just save the Conservative Party from defeat in a general election. And 2) He's extremely popular amongst the Tory members, and so was always going to win. So if you are a Tory MP and want a position in the cabinet in 6 months time, vote Boris now.
He's doing well because he's popular. He's popular because he's doing well.
But as we all know, he's a buffoon. He's narcissistic, iditioc, and prone to pie in the sky thinking. His list of achievements as London Mayor or Foreign Secretary are essentially zero. He doesn't like to be told no, and he's going to immediately be clashing with the EU and possibly the civil service.
As soon as the polls start turning against him, he will leach support. As soon as he starts putting his foot into his mouth, the public will turn on him.
And he's got the exact problem Theresa May had. Either jam no-deal through a Parliament that doesn't want no deal, or jam "the deal" through a Parliament that doesn't want "the deal".
If we are still in the EU come 1st January 2020, I think a second referendum is inevitable.
Agreed.
He is - but then being hated is no guarantee you'll get kicked from power immediately, Trump's been polling poorly for most of his time as President and a lot of his party can't stand him but he still gets their backing all the same. If things go to shite with Brexit then Boris will act as a convenient deflection for the wider party who are just as culpable for all this as he is individually, even if he's the worst of the lot.
Yup. And that's the exact same situation as Trump.
Trump has lost all his allies. He's either turned them against him, or they have gone singing to the FBI. The Republican party are keeping him around because he is popular and he takes (all) of the flak away from them.
But as soon as it starts crumbling around him, they will bring him down.
He isn't popular nationally though - he's only popular within the party. Similar could be said for Boris, he'd be very divisive nationally but the party base adore him. For all Trump's unpopularity there's still a somewhat reasonable chance he could end up lasting the full eight years.
Stewart makes perfect sense. It’s the other 600 dickheads that don’t understand the game
He only makes perfect sense if you're ignoring he's pursuing an approach to Brexit that's been dead in the water for a while and which has no numbers to see it pass, and which isn't really supported by the public at large either. Not to mention the fact he's standing for a party that basically stands opposite to a lot of his views (except when it comes to cutting benefits) and which clearly doesn't represent his politics at all.
If there was a general election tomorrow,what does that change with regards to Brexit?
Possible winners would be Johnson, Corbyn or even Farage.
Whichever one came to power will any of them a) cancel Brexit b) Accept the WA c) go for no deal - because the same choices will not go away.
What I commented is a sad indictment on the entirety of the Conservative Party.
What’s the other approach with 3 months left in the bank?
It's mainly dead in the water because of the likes of Boris. His point of saying to them this is the deal if you want brexit isn't an incorrect one.
I'm sure he was aware of the fact he was only there to make up the numbers and his position was more about placing himself in the running for next time.
I'm not sure - what I do know though is that May's deal has been resoundingly rejected by MP's from all parties on several occasions, that it's highly unpopular with the public, and just doesn't stand any chance of being passed. Any MP campaigning on a basis where it's still a possibility is espousing fantasy: anyone at this point who views No Deal as the most harmful option should be actively arguing for Remain, because for all intents and purposes a managed and reasonable deal is no longer an option on the table. Arguing that it is appears to be as dishonest and negligent as saying a No Deal will be anything other than disastrous.
May's deal wasn't just unpopular with Tories though, all parties were voting against it.
This has got the same air as when Brown was made PM, he basically had to wait until public opinion of the party was so low, and politics so broken that nobody else would do it.
You’re not sure because there isn’t another way and it’s not espousing fantasy to keep pointing out the facts. Johnson will have to re-word the deal and change the colour of the ink for his own ego. The EU are done negotiating. If it goes to another vote anybody voting it down is effectively voting for no deal. It’s the best deal of a bad situation
That's because most non muslims like myself dont give a shit about Islam.
A phobia is an irrational fear. The chances are high that the fear a lot of people have is extremism.
After all you dont hear about Christianiphobia, because there is not an extremist element to christianity.
There is - look at the US.
Bore off with your thinly veiled prejudice/racism, every thread it's the same daily mail logic of what a phobia is with you lot. Can only imagine you all read it on Britain First and thought it was clever.
Most of us non-muslims (and yes you only speak on behalf of a particular subset) do care about the abuse any of our fellow citizens get whether that's because the colour of their skin or religion. Tories have a huge issue with racism let's not pretend otherwise.
Agreed. Many have pointed out how often the negotiated deal has been voted down, but it has not yet been voted on when it is absolutely clear that the only alternative is no deal. It may never come to that of course, support for remain or a second referendum or something else could grow, but as it stands, and the clock ticks, we are still slowly heading for that moment, when there are no more choices except deal or no deal. That will be the same vote, but new circumstances, and we'll see.
Anyway. As a "non-muslim," I do care about islamophobia. I live in a multi cultural city with a multicultural family that includes non-practising Muslims. I'd like to think that our government doesn't treat them or think of them as any different to the rest of society.
The choice has always been the WA or no deal (or no Brexit) - the waters were muddied perhaps by May, Corbyn, Mogg,Malthouse etc but they were just there to mislead the public and none were ever possible. Talk of GE's and referendum is another distraction. Time should be up in October and the EU would be mad to grant another extension. Three months has past and nothing has changed except another fool will be PM just in time or the summer holidays.
would perhaps be more entertaining to see him and chukka fight it out to lead the libs
Gove will marmalise Johnson if it comes down to those two. My money's been on Gove for months, and I'm quietly confident.
Gove will marmalise Johnson if it comes down to those two. My money's been on Gove for months, and I'm quietly confident.
Not a chance Johnson is the darling of the membership.
He's pretty much a dead cert PM now barring a complete and utter disaster (which it has to be said BJ is more than capable of)
Gove will marmalise Johnson if it comes down to those two. My money's been on Gove for months, and I'm quietly confident.
Johnson's camp want to face Hunt in the final, so it wouldn't surprise me if we see some shenanigans (vote lending) take place in the next ballot.
Hoping Labour immediately put down a vote of no confidence against BoJo to test whether he actually has the confidence of the house. That's supposed to be a prerequisite for May to approach the queen anyway so it should be tested.
I imagine he would win as the weak willed Tories opposed to his leadership will stand behind giving him a chance.
I imagine he would win as the weak willed Tories opposed to his leadership will stand behind giving him a chance.
A vote of no confidence in the house is different to what it was pre-Brexit Party and post May’s departure. No Tories are going to vote against him with the thinking that a new leader would unite the Tories and win a GE.
He’s the one that has been chosen to unite the Tories and he wouldn’t win a GE with the Brexit party syphoning off so many votes.
He’ll do another deal with the DUP and votes will be along party lines.
Slightly conflicting message there HJ, I've taken this as a positive.
I'm saying he is pretty much home and dry. Photo on the No. 10 staircase wall. Unless he shoots himself majorly in the foot, which isn't beyond the realms of possibilities with Boris.
That's what I'm expecting. They'll hold fire (they being the rebel tories) until it looks like he makes a push for no deal and then they'll either side with Labour in various motions or a full blown VONC.
Still we all know what's going to happen so they could save us the bother.
Suspect the conservatives might roll the dice on a snap election... Deselect any non hard brexit conservatives and hope that taking a hard brexit stance wins enough votes back from the brexit party (combined with the quite likley new leader bounce in the polls) and change the Westminster maths to say the election is the manadte for a hard brexit and push it thriugh