That's just the point. They only get excited about conservative candidates. McCain wasn't really considered a typical social conservative either and Romney has even less conservative cred. That will keep a small (but highly significant) part of the Republican base at home in November, which under the electoral system, could conflate to key wins for Obama. He would trounce Romney by at least a hundred, possibly two hundred electoral votes today (IMO).
US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012
- Thread starter Team Brian GB
- Start date
- Status
That's just the point. They only get excited about conservative candidates. McCain wasn't really considered a typical social conservative either and Romney has even less conservative cred. That will keep a small (but highly significant) part of the Republican base at home in November, which under the electoral system, could conflate to key wins for Obama. He would trounce Romney by at least a hundred, possibly two hundred electoral votes today (IMO).
Yeah I mean my argument is predicated on the economy worsening or at least stopping improving. I agree that Obama would win now, and will win comfortably in November should growth continue.
McCain isn't the best example since that was after 8 years of a Republican who was by then highly unpopular and in the middle of a financial meltdown. The mere presence of Obama will bring out plenty of conservative voters who didn't turn out for McCain, and the lack of Bush (or some putative version like Gingrich) will keep some Dems at home.
On the flip side a lot you'd expect a lot of Democrats to stay home too - some because of their disappointment aimed towards Obama, others because of sheer complacency, feeling they don't need to vote to keep a nut job like Gingrich or Santorum out of the white house.
I honestly think Romney stands a decent chance, economy-permitting.
Chait reckons it's not actually obvious that Romney is more electable than Assjuice.
I'm far from convinced. Assjuice has his positives - he's the only one apart from Paul that at least appears to believe what he's saying - but he's also just so obviously a poisonous little Nazi.
I'm far from convinced. Assjuice has his positives - he's the only one apart from Paul that at least appears to believe what he's saying - but he's also just so obviously a poisonous little Nazi.
Is Romney More Electable Than Santorum?
By Jonathan Chait
As happens every time a non-Romney Republican surges into the national lead, liberals are giddy over the possibility that the opposing party is once again contemplating electoral suicide. But is it really? Unlike previous Romney opponents of the past, Santorum is not a pure clown, and it’s far from clear that he’d have a harder time beating Obama.
Santorum has attracted a terrible reputation among the overclass. He is defined by his crude, bigoted social conservatism, which colors the broader perception of him as an extremist. This in turn leeches out into a sense, often reflected in news coverage, which likewise reflects the social biases of the overclass, that Santorum is a fringe candidate who would repel swing voters.
In fact, there are, very roughly speaking, two kinds of swing voters. One kind is economically conservative, socially liberal swing voters. This is the kind of voter you usually read about, because it’s the kind most familiar to political reporters – affluent and college educated. But there’s a second kind of voter at least as numerous – economically populist and socially conservative. Think of disaffected blue-collar workers, downscale white men who love guns, hate welfare, oppose free trade, and want higher taxes on the rich and corporations. Romney appeals to the former, but Santorum more to the latter.
As hard a time as Santorum would have closing the sale among certain moderate quarters, I don’t think it’s sunk in quite how poisoned Romney’s image has become among downscale voters. Coverage of Romney’s wealth, corporate history, and partially released tax situation coincided with, and almost certainly caused, a collapse in his support with white voters with income under $50,000. Republicans have enjoyed great success attracting downscale whites in recent years, but that success has hinged in part on things like not nominating standard-bearers who epitomize everything blue-collar whites distrust about their party.
Indeed, at the moment Romney and Santorum both fare about equally well against Obama. (Not very well at all, I’m afraid.) Now, we have to take the comparison with a grain of salt, as Obama has spent months tearing down Romney while leaving Santorum relatively untouched.
Some conservatives are pushing the notion that Santorum is more electable than Romney because he advocates a purer and more naturally articulated form of right-wing ideology. That seems like obvious hokum – can there be any doubt that conservative Republicans will crawl to the polls to defeat President Obama if their nominee is Romney or anybody else? They attract different kinds of swing voters, and the question is who can attract more of them. If I were a Republican, I’d still bet on Romney. But unlike previous matchups — Romney versus Rick Perry, the dumber, crazier George W. Bush, Romney versus Newt Gingrich, the loathsome wildly adulterous bore — the relative electability of Romney versus Santorum is hardly obvious.
By Jonathan Chait
As happens every time a non-Romney Republican surges into the national lead, liberals are giddy over the possibility that the opposing party is once again contemplating electoral suicide. But is it really? Unlike previous Romney opponents of the past, Santorum is not a pure clown, and it’s far from clear that he’d have a harder time beating Obama.
Santorum has attracted a terrible reputation among the overclass. He is defined by his crude, bigoted social conservatism, which colors the broader perception of him as an extremist. This in turn leeches out into a sense, often reflected in news coverage, which likewise reflects the social biases of the overclass, that Santorum is a fringe candidate who would repel swing voters.
In fact, there are, very roughly speaking, two kinds of swing voters. One kind is economically conservative, socially liberal swing voters. This is the kind of voter you usually read about, because it’s the kind most familiar to political reporters – affluent and college educated. But there’s a second kind of voter at least as numerous – economically populist and socially conservative. Think of disaffected blue-collar workers, downscale white men who love guns, hate welfare, oppose free trade, and want higher taxes on the rich and corporations. Romney appeals to the former, but Santorum more to the latter.
As hard a time as Santorum would have closing the sale among certain moderate quarters, I don’t think it’s sunk in quite how poisoned Romney’s image has become among downscale voters. Coverage of Romney’s wealth, corporate history, and partially released tax situation coincided with, and almost certainly caused, a collapse in his support with white voters with income under $50,000. Republicans have enjoyed great success attracting downscale whites in recent years, but that success has hinged in part on things like not nominating standard-bearers who epitomize everything blue-collar whites distrust about their party.
Indeed, at the moment Romney and Santorum both fare about equally well against Obama. (Not very well at all, I’m afraid.) Now, we have to take the comparison with a grain of salt, as Obama has spent months tearing down Romney while leaving Santorum relatively untouched.
Some conservatives are pushing the notion that Santorum is more electable than Romney because he advocates a purer and more naturally articulated form of right-wing ideology. That seems like obvious hokum – can there be any doubt that conservative Republicans will crawl to the polls to defeat President Obama if their nominee is Romney or anybody else? They attract different kinds of swing voters, and the question is who can attract more of them. If I were a Republican, I’d still bet on Romney. But unlike previous matchups — Romney versus Rick Perry, the dumber, crazier George W. Bush, Romney versus Newt Gingrich, the loathsome wildly adulterous bore — the relative electability of Romney versus Santorum is hardly obvious.
The problem with someone like AssJuice becoming the nominee is that it'll re-vitalise Obama's voting base who might otherwise stay home if his opponent was Romneybot.
Anecdotal as hell, but I talk with a co-worker who hates all the candidates, and won't be voting for anyone unless Santorum is nominated, in which case he'll vote for Obama.
Er, hold on.
I haven't followed this for 2 weeks, (wrongly assuming Romney was going to romp to victory.
Where's Santorum come from?
I haven't followed this for 2 weeks, (wrongly assuming Romney was going to romp to victory.
Where's Santorum come from?
Generally it comes out of the ass after some gay sex.
He won the Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado primaries. Missouri doesn't count and is full of crazy people anyway.
Santorum is a Dominionist who's against birth control, non-procreative sex, and generally anything interesting. He wants to turn the US into a Christian, rather than secular, country with his Catholic ass at the helm. Maybe he won't take orders from der fürher(or Emperor Palpatine) the Pope. Instead, he'll probably take them from Israel because if there's anything that gets him hard it's the prospect of the US subjecting itself to Israel's interests to a greater extent than we already do.
What?
I mean I heard of Paulites who would vote for only RP or Obama, but Santorum or Obama?
No, if Santorum is the nominee, he'll vote for Obama because Santorum is that scary in terms of his idiocy.
Oh right, no idea why I interpreted that differently.
That was my point though, Romney be a silent threat to Obama because of the complacency he might draw in the Democrat party.
I should say that this guy is one of those "independents" who has never voted for a Democrat in his life. He just happens to be almost equally fed up with the Republican party.
The Dems had long ago abandoned depending on the Blue color/ so called Reagen Democrats.
It still would be easier to beat Santorum because the election depends on independents. atm they have been turned off by Romney's various gaffs. But he is known to be a 'moderate' even if he is 'severely' conservative for the GOP nomination. Santorum will bring home the conservative vote no doubt. But no way will independents come along or anyone sane for that matter.
I hope it will be Santorum...but it will be Romney
Obama approval rating hits 50%(CBS/NYT) - 1st time in a while, but there are warning signs all over the place that things could go wrong very quickly(Euro).
Obama is well ahead in the polls against the GOP candidates. He has a 6% lead on Romney, 13% over Newt, 10% on Paul, and 9% over Santorum.
His approval/disapproval rating pales into insignificance when you consider the congressional disapproval rating is at 82%. Sure Obama has a bad approval rating comparing him to others in the past but Congress is in the public shithouse.
His approval/disapproval rating pales into insignificance when you consider the congressional disapproval rating is at 82%. Sure Obama has a bad approval rating comparing him to others in the past but Congress is in the public shithouse.
6% isn't really that much. With things being pretty bad these days, it will be hard for Obama to sell himself as a good enough solution when Romney can promise the moon and the stars, if not the moonbase and starships.
I can't help but think that the dems will be less motivated to vote than last time, and I've never seen the republican PR machine so wound up. Romney doesn't really have to do anything besides convince people that Obama can't fix their problems. The voters will happily demand more than any president could achieve and Romney will be happy to pretend he can give it to them.
I can't help but think that the dems will be less motivated to vote than last time, and I've never seen the republican PR machine so wound up. Romney doesn't really have to do anything besides convince people that Obama can't fix their problems. The voters will happily demand more than any president could achieve and Romney will be happy to pretend he can give it to them.
Actually at this stage 6% is a major lead. Obama has a huge amount of money for his campaign, and he is a very strong debater. If it was 6% in Romneys favor I would still put my money on Obama. Chances are he will probably do better this year than 2008 in terms of margin of win, which is staggering considering the economy.
Disillusionment is always a worry - but the Democratic and Obama machine haven't really kicked off yet. When the time comes, they will mobilize, and if he loses, it won't be because of voter apathy.
Some Democrats may stay home, as they're not likely to turn out in the same numbers as in 08, which is mainly down to Obama's initial surge as a new, transformational candidate. However, the idea that they will stay away because of issues like not closing Gitmo and increasing drone strikes, will not be a factor. Enough Democrats are pleased with Obama and cringe at the alternatives, to come out and vote.
Both of those issues have very strong public support. Keeping Gitmo open and continuing drone strikes wouldn't impact the election either way TBH.
That's my point. There aren't a lot of single issue voters who will stay home just because of Gitmo. Its mainly off the radar in the U.S.
Gitmo is a none issue. I listened to a 30 minutes interview debate with two lawyers on Gitmo. One represented some captives and the other was pro-Gitmo. I was never in favor of Gitmo in the first place but my conclusions from that debate is it should and will remain open for a longtime to come.
Why just gay sex? Hetro-anal sex can also produce greasy juice. Its just not the Gays who have all the fun.
you probably know better. If Santorum wins the nomination, will Florida be more likely to go to Obama?
It's certainly a valuable lead, but it's also amazing how those numbers can change over something seemingly trivial. I mean, Newt managed a gigantic swing in the numbers against Mitt with a few smart ass remarks about questions that should have shamed him into contrition.
My feeling is that once Mitt is chosen he'll get a bump, and people who aren't so motivated by him will get more so when he's been solidly ingrained in their minds as the only way to avoid Obama.
While Obama has Mitt for 6% here, there's also 8% undecided, and i think Mitt will get more of those than Obama. If you're not already behind Obama, I'm not sure what else he can say to get you on side, while Romney is going to be able to pretend he's different and has solutions without having to show they'll work.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama
Though for the 1000th time in my life, I have no idea who these undecided voters are. If you don't have strong feelings one way or the other about the republicans and democrats right now I don't understand how you make decisions. Of course rejecting them both makes sense, but that's not the same as being 'undecided'.
It kind of is, in a lot of instances at least. If you think both are shit, or neither speak to your views, or you agree with what Republicans say about the economy, for example, but what the Democrats say about social issues.... basically, you are unenthusiastic about both but want to vote.
Birth Control Hearing Not Really About Birth Control, Says GOP | TPMDC
looks like the GOP is finally going back to to social issues after accepting they have lost the economy and jobs argument.
looks like the GOP is finally going back to to social issues after accepting they have lost the economy and jobs argument.
Oh please oh please let these elections be about whether or not women should have access to birth control...
Santorum is going to win Michigan it looks like. That really will destroy Romney.
crazy primaries.
crazy primaries.
I saw he was ahead - but surely he won't win. Mitt has been doing the
I'm a Michigan boy, Detroit is home....blah blah blah
Mittens is carpet bombing assjuice. yeah he could pull it out
But most pundits think Santorum will win.
It will be difficult for Romney to walk back the 'Let the auto industry fail' talk.
And the bigger picture is if he is struggling in the primaries, what chance has he against a president who went against public opinion to bail out the auto industry?
Good fun all around anyways.
what a giff!!!
If Santorum wins Michigan, its all but over for Romney. Even if he limps to the nomination, he will be viewed as damaged goods.
Can someone sum up what has happened lately? I must have missed something. Last I checked, Romney was fairly easily dominating the other guys after that initial "oh, we might actually have a race on" period.
Does Newt still have a chance or is it all over for him?
It may happen.
But I would have to pinch myself if he does end up with the nomination.
...and if he wins teh darn election
i'm moving back....
- Status