US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

Status
Not open for further replies.
Cali Red said:
Is Florida similar to SC in politics? I would think with so many transplants it might be a little more (or even a lot more) moderate. SC was pretty easy to see either a Gingrich or Santorum win.
Click to expand...

Florida has a large Evangelical base, it was fiercely Republican when I lived where in the mid 80's-early 90's. Lots of old people, I figured that's a big reason why Newt had a huge lead before Iowa, he's the image of you're average Floridian Republican.

But when Newt did poorly in Iowa and NH, they jumped ship. I expect now that he's a winner again they'll happily jump back on board.

Edit: Yep, there it goes already...

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida Republican Presidential Primary
 
Florida is a key State because it one of the swing States in the Presidential election. The voting base is fairly diverse and whoever wins the GOP nomination has to do well in Florida or they'll be unelectable.
 
Romney is fairly popular in Florida. As of this morning there had already been 210,000 votes casted, so he will have a lead to start with. If he doesn't win Florida and drops more than 5% below Newt it would be a disaster for him.
 
mjs020294 said:
Romney is fairly popular in Florida. As of this morning there had already been 210,000 votes casted, so he will have a lead to start with. If he doesn't win Florida and drops more than 5% below Newt it would be a disaster for him.
Click to expand...

makes sense that.

they have two debates lined up before the final vote. I expect Romney to be very aggressive.

This is my take on why I think Newt is 'connecting' with voters. He really has nothing to lose and is willing to take chances by saying some outragous things. So for those that are absolutely fed up with Obama, he is their man.

And I would not discount Newt in the general either. If some of the factors you state are connecting with the electorate, the election will be closer than it seems with a Newt candidacy.

....As Matthews said recently...Be Careful what you wish for. :)
 
Republican Primary Projections
Updated Jan. 23, 2012 at 10:08 AM ET
Florida Vote
.....................Projection/Chance of Win
Newt Gingrich 43.9%.....84%
Mitt Romney 30.1.........16
Rick Santorum 11.9.......0

from 538
 
What time GMT is the debate tonight? And can I stream it online?
 
Raoul said:
Looks bad for Romney. Time to dump some money on anti-Newt ads.
Click to expand...

the key is these debates. I dont know if they are on national tv. But whoever comes out taping the mood of the audience will have the advantage. I really cannot see Romney doing it though he has got in a couple of punches before the Iowa vote.

The SC win really brought conservatives together. I think they will get behind Gingrich now.
That is the key.

so what can the ads say about Newt to a Republican base that they dont already know?

think they all know he has issues. But he is the 'street fighter' they think can clobber Obama.
 
Newt will be able to hold his own in debates with Obama. He is already planning to challenge him to several three hour debates. Obama's biggest assets are his demeanor and public image. If Newt trips him up a few times on the economy it might have a huge impact when the voting starts.
 
Saliph said:
"I don't accept evolution as a theory". Then you, sir, are an idiot.
Click to expand...

I expected better from Ron Paul. For what it's worth I don't think he really believes that, he's just playing to the predominantly religious gallery that is the U.S. which, for him, is surprising.
 
Mad said:
I expected better from Ron Paul.
Click to expand...

Why? He's a fecking nutjob. He put out openly racist newsletters for years, he believes in a return to the gold standard, he wants the US out of NATO, he wants to build a huge fence across the Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and Cali borders to stop illegal immigration.

Just cos he's against the wars doesn't mean he's sensible. That's like thinking Benitez was a demon in the market cos he bought Torres.
 
mjs020294 said:
Newt will be able to hold his own in debates with Obama. He is already planning to challenge him to several three hour debates. Obama's biggest assets are his demeanor and public image. If Newt trips him up a few times on the economy it might have a huge impact when the voting starts.
Click to expand...

Newt is a complete muppet. He's what dumb people think is a smart person. He is a wildcard, yes, but he does not have the organizational capabilities to run a Presidential campaign. He has even less of a political base amongst the Republicans than McCain did.

A campaign against Newt would result in a Reagan 84 esque victory for Obama.
 
How does GMT tell you nothing? You know how far your own time zone is from GMT.

20:00 CST + 6 hours to GMT = 02:00
02:00 GMT + 1 hour to CET = 03:00

Florida's winner take all, by the way. 50 delegates, as much as Iowa and South Carolina combined. Second place won't do Romney any good.
 
Red Dreams said:
is it all winner takes all from now on?
Click to expand...

I don't think so. I think someone mentioned a few pages back that some time after Super Tuesday is the transition point. Nevada's a binding caucus. Maine, Colorado, Minnesota, and N. Mariana Islands are all nonbinding caucuses like Iowa.

Edit: Here's a good source to see how each state handled things in 2008.

Republican Party presidential primaries, 2008 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Keep in mind some of the delegate counts are halved due to all the jostling some of the states tried to do.
 
Here's a stream, if anyone needs:

http://www.stream2watch.me/live-tv/nbc-live-stream
 
Romney is a total twat...just keeps on and on with the negative crap. Obama would chew him up and make him look like the utter cnut he is.
 
I can't stand to watch politicians, reading you guys make fun of their quotes is as close as i want to get to them.

_58060168_013796053-1.jpg
 
Did Gingrich just say he wanted to mount a covert overthrow of the Cuban government?

Now there's a plan that couldn't go wrong.
 
Ron Paul's foreign policy masochism is really starting to annoy me. It's all our fault bla bla.
 
This isn't the most fair comparison, but whenever a new leader comes to power in Africa or the Middle East and threatens the United States or the West in general, a lot of news outlets frame the leader as a mad man.

However, attacking Iran has been an open issue of discussion throughout the Republican campaign, and some of the candidates seem to indicate that they would attack Iran and a lot of people seem pretty alright with it.
 
Better border protection and clamp down on the employers that hire illegals. If someone is in the US illegally they should be deported no matter how long they have lived here.
 
Wittmann45 said:
This isn't the most fair comparison, but whenever a new leader comes to power in Africa or the Middle East and threatens the United States or the West in general, a lot of news outlets frame the leader as a mad man.

However, attacking Iran has been an open issue of discussion throughout the Republican campaign, and some of the candidates seem to indicate that they would attack Iran and a lot of people seem pretty alright with it.
Click to expand...

We've been dehumanizing Muslims for 10+ years now, it's a fruit of our labor.
 
Wittmann45 said:
This isn't the most fair comparison, but whenever a new leader comes to power in Africa or the Middle East and threatens the United States or the West in general, a lot of news outlets frame the leader as a mad man.

However, attacking Iran has been an open issue of discussion throughout the Republican campaign, and some of the candidates seem to indicate that they would attack Iran and a lot of people seem pretty alright with it.
Click to expand...

The Western world always needs an external enemy. The current one is Islam and Iran specifically. They're now pretty much dehumanised sufficiently so that they can be attacked with impunity. Always as a 'last resort' though of course.
 
Wittmann45 said:
This isn't the most fair comparison, but whenever a new leader comes to power in Africa or the Middle East and threatens the United States or the West in general, a lot of news outlets frame the leader as a mad man.

However, attacking Iran has been an open issue of discussion throughout the Republican campaign, and some of the candidates seem to indicate that they would attack Iran and a lot of people seem pretty alright with it.
Click to expand...

It's more like who'd attack quickest, hardest, angriest. "At the speed of light". "Closing the straits of Hormuz would be an act of Terror", apparently. And what is the end point - destruction of nukes? Regime change? Apparently that's up to Israel... a foreign country last time I looked.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.