nah Dubya was and is dumb...but Gore and Kerry were awful candidates.
US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012
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Theyre all corporate raiders, Obama included. That's fundamentally been the main problem with US politics.
Ron Paul needs to drop out of the race now. Is doesn't have a cat in hells chance of even coming second.
He won two terms, tricked the world into justifying a phony war and has personally profited handsomely because of his ventures. This whole idea of him being stupid is a myth IMO.
More and more politicians in all countries are careerists rather than public servants.
That is nothing new. Even the labour leaders of the 70s and 80s were in it for themselves.
...which proves with enough money you put up anyone and do these things.
Bush abdicated responsibility.....
his cronies ran and raped the country.
Jesus Christ the guy is really showing signs of senility.
Newt just hit 40%. Herman Cain might hit 1%.
restoring the constitution will solve unemployment....
I don't agree - the one nation Tories like Heath and the likes of Callaghan and Wilson et al were genuinely trying to do something pro bono publico.
He is definitely senile. He is getting things mixed up. You can really send a guy to the White House that would be 85 after two terms.
Stupidity doesn't preclude being shrewd, venal and grasping. In any case the more worrying thing is that corporate interests just want a front man, Reagan being the template.
Its not just about money though, Gore and Kerry recieved plenty of financial backing too but were made to look like condescending twat, partly due to Dubya's contrasting demeanour. The way he exploited the nation's paranoia following 9/11 was a masterstroke in itself too. I just think its sheer laziness to simply dismiss him as being thick.
You can attribute a lot of the things you're attributing to Bush to Karl Rove, can't you?
The election themselves perhaps, but I still believe that Bush's demeanour was exaggerated with the intention to deceive as well as bringing out the snobby side of the dems.
Check out the demographics. Blacks make up 28% of the SC electorate.
Of course most black people are not going to favour the GOP, but 1%? Oh and the under-thirties went for Paul.
They're losing the educated, the young and the ethnic. Nice going. They're certainly going to have to change their line on immigration and win over some Hispanics in the near future.
it pretty much does, at least according to my dictionary
I agree with Redkaos. Having seen Journeys with George, and how he manipulated the press corps inter-personally over months of contant travelling, I'm very dubious about the notion that Bush is thick. Ignorant, yes. And prone to verbal mistakes - (though that was exaggerated, many of his malapropisms were slips of the tongue that happen to everyone, but aren't obsessisvely chronicled). But not unintelligent.
Which isn't to say he's exactly a great brain either.
I wonder if Romney's dad fits that mould. He criticised the Vietnam war as immoral and pointless when that was still a marginal view that he knew would bring a lot of criticism:
Of course most black people are not going to favour the GOP, but 1%? Oh and the under-thirties went for Paul.
They're losing the educated, the young and the ethnic. Nice going. They're certainly going to have to change their line on immigration and win over some Hispanics in the near future.
it pretty much does, at least according to my dictionaryI agree with Redkaos. Having seen Journeys with George, and how he manipulated the press corps inter-personally over months of contant travelling, I'm very dubious about the notion that Bush is thick. Ignorant, yes. And prone to verbal mistakes - (though that was exaggerated, many of his malapropisms were slips of the tongue that happen to everyone, but aren't obsessisvely chronicled). But not unintelligent.
Which isn't to say he's exactly a great brain either.
peterstorey said:
I wonder if Romney's dad fits that mould. He criticised the Vietnam war as immoral and pointless when that was still a marginal view that he knew would bring a lot of criticism:
All the young Republicans I know, which isn't many, love Ron Paul, and anything about flat taxes.
Looks like Newt has SC, on to Florida, which I think will be completely up for grabs. Newt could amazingly retake the lead in the national polls if he takes Florida.
Looks like Newt has SC, on to Florida, which I think will be completely up for grabs. Newt could amazingly retake the lead in the national polls if he takes Florida.
Newt did not just win...he trounced Romney.
this makes Florida a toss up. I would not be surprised if Newt wins Florida at all.
this makes Florida a toss up. I would not be surprised if Newt wins Florida at all.
Very good episode on Bill Maher from Friday night. Very spirited debates.
Santorum and Paul need to feck off, NOW.
Let Newt pick up 50-60% of their votes, otherwise he's not going to last the distance.
Let Newt pick up 50-60% of their votes, otherwise he's not going to last the distance.
Good stuff by Romney's dad. Politicians should be able to change their minds/policies and be able to transparently explain why, as he did. Unfortunately today, its turned into an unflattering badge of indecisiveness when it should be considered a virtue.
Yeah, in real life, it is an honourable thing to say "Sorry, I was wrong". Yet, in politics...
Paul is going to the Convention with as many delegates as he can to affect the outcome. Who knows, he may even get a policy platform or a cabinet seat out of it.
A pretty good collage of analysis on Paul's chances.....
Based on what happened last night, what has been going on and the nature of the race and the various states coming up I think Gingrich will become the nominee.
One of the reasons for that is the race this year is more drawn out, and that the first 25 states or so are awarding delegates proportionally. On top of which Super Tuesday is quite small this year with not enough states voting to lead to a nominee.
Between now and Super Tuesday on 8th March there are seven primaries and a caucus. Amongst those you would favour Gingrich to carry Nevada, Colorado and Arizona whilst Romney will likely carry Michigan and perhaps Minnesota thus splitting the votes and what is more, Colorado and Minnesota are on one day and Arizona and Michigan are on one day, thus taking the cancelling out effect even further. This is what makes Florida next week vitally important as it is the largest state before prior to Super Tuesday where no candidate has any particular standing - the other states before Super Tuesday are Maine and Washington which are also open to debate.
On Super Tuesday itself 8 states go up for election including no particularly large ones, all of which remain to be proportional - Alaska, Georgia, Massachusetts, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia. It is clear to see that Romney will be having a difficult day as only Massachusetts and Vermont will likely be carried without too much difficultly, he is very lucky to be in the Virginia primary with only Ron Paul though that itself will prove to be interesting if Paul is still in it as we will see decisively if there is an anti-Romney vote and how anti that is. Therefore it is very possible that Romney could lose in Virginia for that reason which Ron Paul's campaign team would be wise to follow up on. Of the remaining states, Gingrich should carry Georgia, Oklahoma and Tennessee without too much difficultly and ought to take Alaska as well whilst Ohio will prove to be the showdown state as it often is in the presidential election itself.
At this point I would imagine Gingrich to be ahead in the delegate count but not by a great deal though this you would expect him to extend. Seven days after Super Tuesday three states goes to the polls - Hawaii would be open to contest though the other two being Alabama and Mississippi will almost certainly go to Gingrich. Only a few days later Missouri goes to the polls and a week after that Louisiana does though in between comes Illinois which should favour Romney, which he'll need to carry otherwise he will be in trouble.
It is following this that it all becomes interesting, every race before 1st April awards delegates proportionally whilst every race following it follows the simple plurality, winner-takes-all approach. This is a very timely change in policy for Gingrich because on 3rd April the first state to utilise this will be Texas, which will have 155 delegates on hand. Whilst the demographics of the state are changing rapidly Gingrich should still be significantly favoured, especially because he has the endorsement of a certain Rick Perry - if Perry campaigns for him and assists his organisation building in the state then Romney may not even need to turn up.
If Gingrich were to be leading before which is probably a more likely scenario then Romney leading we will begin putting distance between them for the first time. On the same day Wisconsin will be going to the polls which Romney must carry in such an event, and if he cannot win such states then he cannot be the nominee and most certainly couldn't beat Obama in November there. What makes this all the more interesting is on 24th April, four states in the north east with a combined 214 delegates have their primaries - Conneticut, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island - four states that you would expect Romney to win, four states that he absolute must win though in Pennsylvania especially he will have to fight for it.
Directly following that episode the races swing back in Gingrich's favour - North Carolina and West Virginia - 86 delegates - go up on 8th May, followed seven days later by Nebraska and Oregon - 64 more delegates and a week after that it goes back to a Gingrich likely state in Kentucky with 45 delegates, just five less than Florida with one individual taking them all.
On 5th June a third collection of states will hold primaries on the same day, and may prove to be the ultimately deciding day. South Dakota, New Mexico, Montana and New Jersey with amounting to 127 votes will be up for grabs, but so will be 172 in one fell swoop in California. It would be ironic for a staunch supporter of Democratic candidates in presidential elections to end up potentially chosing a Republican nominee but it is a very realistic prospect considering how finely poised this primary campaign is. A few weeks later Romney will get to carry Utah and its 40 delegates, or so you would imagine thus rounding off the campaign.
I have delibately not factored Santorum or Paul into this as the likelihood of them going far is too low to contemplate, I don't expect Santorum to still be around on Super Tuesday unless he scores big in Florida which is doubtful when the race is now being shaped up as Gingrich vs. Romney. Ron Paul I imagine will hang around for a long time to come though will likely cease to be a factor of much consideration by or on Super Tuesday. However if the primary season doesn't produce a nominee, which given the ordering of states keeping the race relative tight the whole way through or so you would expect, it will all come down to the Convention where the likes of Paul and Santorum, even if they had just a few dozen votes between them might prove to be decisive.
The Republican Party Convention will not be held until the last week of August.
One of the reasons for that is the race this year is more drawn out, and that the first 25 states or so are awarding delegates proportionally. On top of which Super Tuesday is quite small this year with not enough states voting to lead to a nominee.
Between now and Super Tuesday on 8th March there are seven primaries and a caucus. Amongst those you would favour Gingrich to carry Nevada, Colorado and Arizona whilst Romney will likely carry Michigan and perhaps Minnesota thus splitting the votes and what is more, Colorado and Minnesota are on one day and Arizona and Michigan are on one day, thus taking the cancelling out effect even further. This is what makes Florida next week vitally important as it is the largest state before prior to Super Tuesday where no candidate has any particular standing - the other states before Super Tuesday are Maine and Washington which are also open to debate.
On Super Tuesday itself 8 states go up for election including no particularly large ones, all of which remain to be proportional - Alaska, Georgia, Massachusetts, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia. It is clear to see that Romney will be having a difficult day as only Massachusetts and Vermont will likely be carried without too much difficultly, he is very lucky to be in the Virginia primary with only Ron Paul though that itself will prove to be interesting if Paul is still in it as we will see decisively if there is an anti-Romney vote and how anti that is. Therefore it is very possible that Romney could lose in Virginia for that reason which Ron Paul's campaign team would be wise to follow up on. Of the remaining states, Gingrich should carry Georgia, Oklahoma and Tennessee without too much difficultly and ought to take Alaska as well whilst Ohio will prove to be the showdown state as it often is in the presidential election itself.
At this point I would imagine Gingrich to be ahead in the delegate count but not by a great deal though this you would expect him to extend. Seven days after Super Tuesday three states goes to the polls - Hawaii would be open to contest though the other two being Alabama and Mississippi will almost certainly go to Gingrich. Only a few days later Missouri goes to the polls and a week after that Louisiana does though in between comes Illinois which should favour Romney, which he'll need to carry otherwise he will be in trouble.
It is following this that it all becomes interesting, every race before 1st April awards delegates proportionally whilst every race following it follows the simple plurality, winner-takes-all approach. This is a very timely change in policy for Gingrich because on 3rd April the first state to utilise this will be Texas, which will have 155 delegates on hand. Whilst the demographics of the state are changing rapidly Gingrich should still be significantly favoured, especially because he has the endorsement of a certain Rick Perry - if Perry campaigns for him and assists his organisation building in the state then Romney may not even need to turn up.
If Gingrich were to be leading before which is probably a more likely scenario then Romney leading we will begin putting distance between them for the first time. On the same day Wisconsin will be going to the polls which Romney must carry in such an event, and if he cannot win such states then he cannot be the nominee and most certainly couldn't beat Obama in November there. What makes this all the more interesting is on 24th April, four states in the north east with a combined 214 delegates have their primaries - Conneticut, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island - four states that you would expect Romney to win, four states that he absolute must win though in Pennsylvania especially he will have to fight for it.
Directly following that episode the races swing back in Gingrich's favour - North Carolina and West Virginia - 86 delegates - go up on 8th May, followed seven days later by Nebraska and Oregon - 64 more delegates and a week after that it goes back to a Gingrich likely state in Kentucky with 45 delegates, just five less than Florida with one individual taking them all.
On 5th June a third collection of states will hold primaries on the same day, and may prove to be the ultimately deciding day. South Dakota, New Mexico, Montana and New Jersey with amounting to 127 votes will be up for grabs, but so will be 172 in one fell swoop in California. It would be ironic for a staunch supporter of Democratic candidates in presidential elections to end up potentially chosing a Republican nominee but it is a very realistic prospect considering how finely poised this primary campaign is. A few weeks later Romney will get to carry Utah and its 40 delegates, or so you would imagine thus rounding off the campaign.
I have delibately not factored Santorum or Paul into this as the likelihood of them going far is too low to contemplate, I don't expect Santorum to still be around on Super Tuesday unless he scores big in Florida which is doubtful when the race is now being shaped up as Gingrich vs. Romney. Ron Paul I imagine will hang around for a long time to come though will likely cease to be a factor of much consideration by or on Super Tuesday. However if the primary season doesn't produce a nominee, which given the ordering of states keeping the race relative tight the whole way through or so you would expect, it will all come down to the Convention where the likes of Paul and Santorum, even if they had just a few dozen votes between them might prove to be decisive.
The Republican Party Convention will not be held until the last week of August.
Seriously, Gingrich.......
I do like how he drops the odd historical fact randomly into his speeches, apart from that though...
I can't believe this is actually happening. The election is going to be great. There's no way in hell Gingrich could ever beat Obama. Ever. No matter what.
You could maybe see Romney win it, if the economy worsens, etc. But Gingrich?
You could maybe see Romney win it, if the economy worsens, etc. But Gingrich?
Newt will get hammered into oblivion by the press if he becomes the nominee. Open marriage requests, divorcing another wife when she had cancer etc.
What would drive me bonkers is if/when Newt goes against Obama, you'll have these white, southern right-wing nuts bashing Obama for this or that yet willingly endorsing an adulterer and bigot.
relax people Newt will not be the nominee.
he is not even registered in some of the states apparently.
he is not even registered in some of the states apparently.
Relax?? We're all hoping for it, Obama vs Gingrich, on a national scale would be an absolute bloodbath!
Don't underestimate Gingrich. He is an accomplished politician with a track record of collaborating with the Democrats. He might be the perfect candidate to take on Obama.
You're trolling, right?
No.
The disapproval rating for the Republicans in Congress is so bad it negates Obama's disapproval rating. I could see an effective campaign being run around Gingrich's record of collaborating across parties.
Really? Not claiming to know as much as you about the US electorate, but surely independents will remember his collaborations far less than his being instrumental in impeaching the incumbent president over infidelity, while at the same time carrying on an illicit affair?
I mean, Gingrich, along with Rove, virtually created the current ultra-partisan, ultra-puritan, Christianist, obstructionist, take-no-prisoners GOP.
He has charisma and an effortless understanding of populist rhetoric, so I wouldn't give him no chance if the economy tanks. But he would be one of the least popular candidates in history - he's running at a 27% approval rate at the moment.
If disapproval rating and history have any say in the election Obama may as well start packing now. Fact is we have never had an election quite like this. We had one of the worst recessions in history four years ago and ever since then all politicians have been very unpopular.
Obama care is very unpopular, we are borrowing more money than ever and the economy is very flat. It will be a really interesting Presidential election and with the right campaign its winnable for whoever is chosen by the GOP. I still think Obama will win but I wouldn't be in the slightest bit surprised if he lost.
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