US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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mjs020294 said:
If disapproval rating and history have any say in the election Obama may as well start packing now.
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Well not if the GOP picks someone far more unpopular! Approval in the mid-forties ain't great, but it's a whole lot better than 27%!

Obama care is very unpopular, we are borrowing more money than ever and the economy is very flat.
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Actually Obamacare polls about 50/50 now, it's been on the up as its effects have started to kick in.

As for borrowing more than ever, not really:

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There are a few things that will be used against Obama when campaigning begins. The downgrading of the US's credit rating. The fact that public debt will have increased by 50% during his term. The fact that the public debt will surpass GDP for the first time in history.

Not all Obama's fault but the majority of the electorate will not see in that way.

National Debt by Presidential Term - per Capita and as Percentage of GDP
 
Well according to that graph it hasn't increased anything like 50% in his term :confused:

What has happened is it's increased in relation to private debt, which has shrunk as firms have built up reserves (or in some cases defaulted). Which is exactly what you want in a major recession/liquidity trap. Though I agree, it will be hard to persuade people of that as it's somewhat counter-intuitive.
 
Plechazunga said:
Well according to that graph it hasn't increased anything like 50% in his term :confused:
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2008: $10,699,804,864,612
2011: $15,125,898,976,397

It will probably jump another $1.5 trillion this year. So it will most likely have gone up by 55% during his first four years. By the end of this year the national debt will be well over $16 trillion, and the GDP will be around $15.5 trillion.

Not all Obamas fault, even the mighty Reagan manage to increase debt by 250%.
 
They seriously need to can the two term rule. Clinton was well on track on the economy. AND we desperately need tax increases on anyone earning over $500k
 
mjs020294 said:
They seriously need to can the two term rule. Clinton was well on track on the economy. AND we desperately need tax increases on anyone earning over $500k
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Never really thought too much about it but I think most Americans would be open to more than two terms. Clinton certainly could have won another. I think most believe there needs to be an increase on taxes on the wealthy. But without cutting some spending you can raise taxes all you want and it won't matter.
 
Fair enough. As I say, converting private debt to public was the most sensible way to deal with the crisis he inherited. And I'm not an Obama fanboi, I think he deserves plenty of criticism and worse for his civil liberties record.
 
Im red2 said:
Gingrich reminds me of Porky the pig, and if he becomes president then .. th.th. that's all folks!
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For me he comes off so incredibly smug and condescending I just can't even listen to him talk for more than a minute or so. I think he'd be a disaster of a president.
 
Plechazunga said:
Fair enough. As I say, converting private debt to public was the most sensible way to deal with the crisis he inherited. And I'm not an Obama fanboi, I think he deserves plenty of criticism and worse for his civil liberties record.
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That is a complete none issue for most people TBH. Most Americans would be in favor of the changes made to deal with terrorism.
 
mjs020294 said:
That is a complete none issue for most people TBH. Most Americans would be in favor of the changes made to deal with terrorism.
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That's shortsighted. It's one thing with Obama, but now the precedent is set, and once you have a President Palin - or worse - who can imprison and even kill US citizens without trial, you have a problem.
 
Obama will win by default because the Republican alternatives are so poor would be my guess.
 
Wibble said:
Obama will win by default because the Republican alternatives are so poor would be my guess.
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Obama is a slick statesman for sure but his record as President doesn't stand much scrutiny. The incumbents will not have a record to compare against so all the focus will be on things like national debt and public spending.
 
mjs020294 said:
Obama is a slick statesman for sure but his record as President doesn't stand much scrutiny. The incumbents will not have a record to compare against so all the focus will be on things like national debt and public spending.
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really?

you have a republican view.

Andrew Sullivan made some excellent points in his Newsweek article.

so I will disagree with you. These republicans want to carry on the policies that brought this country to its knees. Obama does not. That is why he will win.
 
I thought Sullivan's article was, as usual, emotional and mediocre writing. And sloppy - Megan McArdle caught him in the kind of error re the employment figures that I'd make, if only Newsweek gave me their cover.

But his overall point was fair. Given the constraints of the economic situation and the granite GOP obstructionism, you can count:

- Dealing with the Great Recession calmly and sensibly (though he was soft on the banks)

- Massive improvement in foreign policy, especially as regards the Arab Spring and Iran protests (but drones are a big black mark)

- A healthcare bill that's flawed but still progress

- Some other stuff I can't remember

Not bad, overall
 
Obama has it sewn up. The GOP only stands a chance if it puts forward a squeaky clean moderate who can appeal to the conservative-edged centre, and the only moderate they have among their candidates is a Mormon who isn't trusted by conservatives. Whether the nomination goes to Romney or Newt, the Republicans lose. If it's Romney, a large swath of voters in the southern states will be put off by his religion and by his apparent liberal sympathies; allowing Obama to once again take Florida and New Mexico. If it's Newt, moderates across the country will be put off because of his extremist positions, not to mention him being a complete douchebag.

Obama will have to bugger up momentously to lose this election, and he's too good to do that.
 
Red Dreams said:
really?

you have a republican view.

Andrew Sullivan made some excellent points in his Newsweek article.

so I will disagree with you. These republicans want to carry on the policies that brought this country to its knees. Obama does not. That is why he will win.
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I am not a republican, far from it. I have a fact based view of the election. Obama doesn't have a good record on many very important issues. He inherited a mess but there is a large number of voters that will simply judge him on the last three years. A 50% increase of the national debt, and debt surpassing GDP are both awful statistics.

Right now the polls for an Obama vs Romney race are extremely tight. With the right campaign highlighting Obama's negatives you could easily see a 4-5% swing in the GOPs favor.
 
Plechazunga said:
- Massive improvement in foreign policy, especially as regards the Arab Spring and Iran protests (but drones are a big black mark)
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To you maybe but the vast majority of American voters wouldn't agree with you. Americans have a very high approval rating of the military. In fact in a recent poll support and approval of the military was 20% ahead of any other issue in terms of approval.
 
rednev said:
Obama has it sewn up. The GOP only stands a chance if it puts forward a squeaky clean moderate who can appeal to the conservative-edged centre, and the only moderate they have among their candidates is a Mormon who isn't trusted by conservatives. Whether the nomination goes to Romney or Newt, the Republicans lose. If it's Romney, a large swath of voters in the southern states will be put off by his religion and by his apparent liberal sympathies; allowing Obama to once again take Florida and New Mexico. If it's Newt, moderates across the country will be put off because of his extremist positions, not to mention him being a complete douchebag.
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I think they will turn out for Romney. Not Democrats 08-style turnout, but they will vote because they hate Obama viscerally.

Obama will have to bugger up momentously to lose this election, and he's too good to do that.
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He will also have probably the best part of a BILLION dollars.

msj020294 said:
A 50% increase of the national debt, and debt surpassing GDP are both awful statistics.
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I know you're saying this is the view that many will take, but is it your view? Because many of the major economists were agreed that they had to print money to get out of this one, otherwise the US and the whole world would have been mightily fecked. In fact the Keynesians are largely unanimous that the stimulus was much too small.

It's also worth noting that the US can currently borrow for virtually nothing. In fact the real interest rate is basically negative, investors are paying the US to lend to them.
 
Plechazunga said:
It's also worth noting that the US can currently borrow for virtually nothing. In fact the real interest rate is basically negative, investors are paying the US to lend to them.
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The interest payments of the US government debts are around $1.25 billion a DAY, $456 billion a year.
 
I just feel there are some serious issues and bad stats that can be used against Obama. Only President to get the US downgraded, first President to get debt above GDP. In an election year where the economy will totally dominate Obama will have a hard job defending his record.
 
mjs020294 said:
I just feel there are some serious issues and bad stats that can be used against Obama. Only President to get the US downgraded, first President to get debt above GDP. In an election year where the economy will totally dominate Obama will have a hard job defending his record.
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errr the Tea Party got the country downgraded. you did follow that right?

and the Republicans quadrupled the national debt.

He has correctly highlighted the unfairness of the financial situation in the country where the rich pay far less than the middle class. they can call it class warfare but it is fact.

He has stopped the rot...but it is an awful big hole the GOP has dug for us and having an idiot GOP congress that wont work with him has made his work that much harder.

Romney will crack under scrutiny.
 
Red Dreams said:
errr the Tea Party got the country downgraded. you did follow that right?

and the Republicans quadrupled the national debt.

He has correctly highlighted the unfairness of the financial situation in the country where the rich pay far less than the middle class. they can call it class warfare but it is fact.

He has stopped the rot...but it is an awful big hole the GOP has dug for us and having an idiot GOP congress that wont work with him has made his work that much harder.

Romney will crack under scrutiny.
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Good lord RD. You can't really believe the stuff you spew, can you? You make Obama sound like the greatest president we've ever had. You talk about the repubs and national debt, you really might want to take a look at your own guy. The political power he had when he came into office was unprecedented and he blew it by allowing Pelosi and Reid to drag the country down.

You couldn't be more wrong. Sorry.
 
Cali Red said:
Good lord RD. You can't really believe the stuff you spew, can you? You make Obama sound like the greatest president we've ever had. You talk about the repubs and national debt, you really might want to take a look at your own guy. The political power he had when he came into office was unprecedented and he blew it by allowing Pelosi and Reid to drag the country down.

You couldn't be more wrong. Sorry.
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:lol:

good god...talk about spewing Kerist... :lol:

yeah your party handed Obama a clean slate.

So what job creating laws did your congress pass since 2010...

Yeah the GOP congress did a damn fine job...thats why its approval is the lowest it has been.

get a grip lad ;)
 
Red Dreams said:
errr the Tea Party got the country downgraded. you did follow that right?

and the Republicans quadrupled the national debt.
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:lol:

The Tea Party had ZERO to do with the downgrade. Unlike you I know exactly why the US was downgraded. And the last Republican government didn't even double the debt in eights years. Considering GW gave three trillion dollars to the rich in tax cuts, and cost us two trillion fighting wars its kind of incredible the debt only went up five trillion. Obama's first four years have added more debt than GW eight years.
 
mjs020294 said:
:lol:

The Tea Party had ZERO to do with the downgrade. Unlike you I know exactly why the US was downgraded. And the last Republican government didn't even double the debt in eights years. Considering GW gave three trillion dollars to the rich in tax cuts, and cost us two trillion fighting wars its kind of incredible the debt only went up five trillion. Obama's first four years have added more debt than GW eight years.
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The US wouldn't have been downgraded if it had credible plans on the deficit (and other issues). But Congress couldn't even agree to talk about the issues. So yes, the Tea Party did have something to do with the downgrade. France staved off their downgrade for ages because they were trying all sorts of things to look like they were taking action. The US simply didn't bother.

Not to say that it matters a lot (until another rating agency downgrades the US), but the Tea Party isn't averse to using large negative impacts on the population at large to advance its own narrow agenda. That's pathetic.
 
Is Florida similar to SC in politics? I would think with so many transplants it might be a little more (or even a lot more) moderate. SC was pretty easy to see either a Gingrich or Santorum win.
 
Cali Red said:
Is Florida similar to SC in politics? I would think with so many transplants it might be a little more (or even a lot more) moderate. SC was pretty easy to see either a Gingrich or Santorum win.
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the one complication is they have early voting there. So Mittens may have already banked his votes.

Santorum will be far behind I think.

Still really dont see a way for Newt to win the nomination...the pubahs don't want him...where is he going to get the money for the long fight?
 
I was adamant that they were only fighting to see who will be runner up to Obama a few weeks ago but I am not too sure anymore. With things like the downgrade, rising debt and debt surpassing GDP for the first time could really hurt Obama.
 
mjs020294 said:
I was adamant that they were only fighting to see who will be runner up to Obama a few weeks ago but I am not too sure anymore. With things like the downgrade, rising debt and debt surpassing GDP for the first time could really hurt Obama.
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I'd say things are trending towards Obama, especially with unemployment falling.
 
The unemployment number will be huge going forward. If it keeps trending in the right direction Obama will win. Of all the stats it's the one most people can identify with easily.
 
Cali Red said:
The unemployment number will be huge going forward. If it keeps trending in the right direction Obama will win. Of all the stats it's the one most people can identify with easily.
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Yeah, agree with that. Ultimately its about jobs and if Obama can point towards a consistent downward trajectory of unemployment numbers, there's little Romney or Newt will be able to do in the general election. Beyond that, Obama is a fantastic campaigner whose numbers are likely to spike as he hits the trail. Not to mention that he's got about 5 times more money in the bank than the others.
 
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