US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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Plechazunga said:
The mandate is actually getting more popular now, it's about 50-50. If he wins another term it will probably be very popular within a couple of years, as people start to see the benefits. My prediction is that if the Republicans don't get in this year it will be basically unrepealable by the time they do.
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That was always the challenge and you can see why he went for it on healthcare so early, that in order to survive the wrath of the republicans it needs a five year maturity or so until it is accepted, I recall making that point sometime ago about social security being embedded for fifteen years before the Republicans got themselves into the White House again.

This is their opportunity to do though it is slipping, the likelihood they will win the presidency and both houses of congress are tiny and they would need all three to do it. There are some interesting measures in place already - young people for instance now get to remain on their parents plans until they are 26 - lets see Ron Paul get the young vote with that in mind though it isn't until 2014 when the big provisions come in.


Plechazunga said:
I don't think Obama's term's a good example, as the Republicans were astonishingly obstructive, beyond all reasonable limits. Bush got quite a lot of his agenda through including large tax cuts for the wealthy.
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That is fair enough and I agree with it, I was trying to think of an example and despite being an obvious one it was all I could think of. Essentially the point I was making is that you get punished whether you are a congressman, a senator or the president if you pursue a policy that is seen in anyway to be controversial.
 
Here is an interesting race - who wins out of Herman Cain and Michele Bachmann - who is voting for them?
 
It's not about who wins. Romney was always going to win. The margin matters now. He probably needs to win by more than 11% to keep up momentum.
 
Wittmann45 said:
Well that was boring compared to Iowa
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Another very strong showing for Paul - basically second across Iowa and New Hampshire whereas Santorum isn't really anywhere.

That is the issue with the contenders to Romney as everybody is inconsistent from state to state, if Romney gets a strong showing in South Carolina that would probably make him the prohibitive nominee.
 
Sir Matt said:
It's not about who wins. Romney was always going to win. The margin matters now. He probably needs to win by more than 11% to keep up momentum.
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Margins do not matter so much as long as it is a clear win as opposed to Iowa, especially when his closest challenger in Iowa might come fifth tonight.
 
So now it begins to get interesting, I imagine everybody will now go on to South Carolina but I imagine that a few will drop out after that. Romney and Paul will almost certainly stick around, Perry will go if he doesn't get traction and safely into the top three with in and around 20% and that could apply to Gingrich, Santorum and Huntsman as well.

Of those four though Gingrich would be the least likely to go, despite indifferent looking results in Iowa and New Hampshire he is still polling very well across the south.
 
Team Brian GB said:
Margins do not matter so much as long as it is a clear win as opposed to Iowa, especially when his closest challenger in Iowa might come fifth tonight.
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Yes it does. If they don't win by as much as they expected to, or Romney's win is by less than polls predicted, it will look like the others are gaining ground. Romney winning Iowa or finishing second was good either way because he was never really expected to do well there. New Hampshire was always going to be a big win, but he needs to win by at least 10% or it'll seem as though he's losing momentum and support.

He's faced attacks from Gingrich and others about his involvement at Bain, which will surely gain some momentum leading into South Carolina, a place where he has a tenuous lead at present. If his lead is slipping in a solid state, it could hurt his chances in SC, Florida, etc.

He's got it all to lose at present but needs a solid victory. Santorum will do better in South Carolina as will Gingrich. Neither was expecting to win tonight or do well, the demographics of NH don't suit them. South Carolina does. If Romney loses some momentum, despite winning, the media will pick it up and it will be as though the pack is gaining. If the Bain stuff picks up steam, which it probably will, it could let another candidate back into the race.

I don't expect it to, but his margin of victory does matter.
 
Is Romney running for president based on what he intends to do or what he thinks Obama is not doing?
 
Is this guy deranged, Obama doesn't believe in the superiority of the American military? What is that based on exactly?

Why they are so obsessed by Israel always annoys me, not to mention all this 'we are the greatest uber nation in the esteemed history of God's civilisation' talk.
 
Plechazunga said:
Yes, that sort of tub-thumping patriotism wouldn't cut any ice with you

;)
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Patriotism is fine and dandy but when they always bang on about being the greatest country in the world it annoys me though not as much as the right wing love stateside for Israel. Not that I don't like Israel but because their fervour for it is irrational.
 
Looking at the numbers from New Hampshire four years ago, Romney came second with 32% and Ron Paul came fifth with 8% - so when they are projected first and second four years later with a combined 60% of the vote that isn't saying much for the Republican field this time around when you consider both of them haven't done anything of note since 2008 except run for the presidency again.
 
Team Brian GB said:
Patriotism is fine and dandy but when they always bang on about being the greatest country in the world it annoys me though not as much as the right wing love stateside for Israel. Not that I don't like Israel but because their fervour for it is irrational.
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It's become an article of faith. It's bizarre. It's as if it's not a foreign country, or it's inconceivable that its interests could differ from America's.

You had Eric Cantor I think it was tell Netanyahu that the Republicans would fight to stop Obama obstructing his agenda. Is that not treason?
 
Ron Paul is way too old to run for President. I was against McCain on the basis if his age four years ago, and he is a year younger than Paul. They really need a upper age limit of around 67/68 to allow for two terms.
 
The latest poll I have seen for South Carolina puts the race at Romney 37%, Huntsman 18%, Paul 17%, Santorum 11%, Gingrich 10%, Perry 1%.
 
Plechazunga said:
It's become an article of faith. It's bizarre. It's as if it's not a foreign country, or it's inconceivable that its interests could differ from America's.

You had Eric Cantor I think it was tell Netanyahu that the Republicans would fight to stop Obama obstructing his agenda. Is that not treason?
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Well it is a serious lack of patriotism that is for sure, that is the first thing I noticed about Santorum in the debates, that on the Palestinian prisoner transfers he was running to the right of Netanyahu which I didn't know to be possible. Maybe there is something akin to a student exchange scheme, that a congressman gets to spend three months in the Knesset or something.

I am sure Romney would love us for it but Europe should become more forceful on the matter - I have no qualms whatsoever about recognising a Palestinian state.
 
mjs020294 said:
:lol:
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It is crazy isn't it, here he is having been projected a big win in the New Hampshire Primary and he spends most of the time talking about Obama - whether I like an opponent or not I want to hear what a candidate is going to do, not what the opposition is not doing.
 
Jesus Christ Ron Paul waffles on a bit. he is all over the fecking place. Palin would have run this rag-tail bunch close.
 
The big obstacle for Romney is now his work with Bain and the number of people he fired while reaping huge profits. Gingrich brought it up, and it's sure to gain some traction over the next few weeks. It hurt him in his attempt to run against Ted Kennedy in 94. It's highly amusing to watch the GOP go after him for that considering who their major support is.

I don't think it'll be enough, but it could take the sting out of it before the real battle starts. Not that the current GOP candidates would be thoughtful enough to consider burning their best attack so Obama couldn't benefit from it.
 
Indeed so, it is only just kicking in - not just the particulars mentioned this week but each and every little detail from his career. Once it gets onto the campaign circuit that is always the cue for the media to start digging deep into his affairs on the matter.

I must say I am intrigued about this 'advert' they're talking about that Gingrich supposedly made about Romney's career, he really does have it in for him.
 
I'm not sure this Bain thing will fly. Unless he can be shown to have done something really unethical, people will lose interest.

Team Brian GB said:
Well it is a serious lack of patriotism that is for sure, that is the first thing I noticed about Santorum in the debates, that on the Palestinian prisoner transfers he was running to the right of Netanyahu which I didn't know to be possible.
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Oh there's a long way right of Netanyahu. You could start with Avigdor Lieberman. Then there's the guys in Jerusalem who put yellow stars and signs saying "Jude" on their kids the other day, to protest against secular attempts to ensure women could ride where they wanted on buses.


I'll tell you what, this doesn't look too promising for the Republicans - Nate Silver says the turnout was far lower than thought:

With 85 of 301 precincts reporting, 52,191 voters have cast a ballot in the Republican primary so far. That projects to about 185,000 votes statewide, as compared with about 240,000 votes in the Republican primary in 2008.

The drop-off in turnout looks worse for Republicans since a higher fraction of voters - about half this year, compared to 37 percent in 2008 - are independents. That means that turnout among registered Republicans could alone be off by nearly 40 percent from 2008.
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NPR did a piece on Bain this evening. It will fizzle out because many of the buy outs Bain are involved in are investment buyouts. They help turn companies around and save them. So although a few people loose their jobs a hell of a lot more jobs are actually saved. They were heavily involved in buyouts of companies like Sports Authority.
 
I heard that as well, in 2008 it was a record high though it is interesting considering how active the tea party has been in the last couple of years.

If Romney runs away with it you do wonder if they would consider backing a third party candidate - they would probably be stupid enough to.
 
I think Hunstman will be the next Republican President but not for another four years.
 
I thought Andrew Sullivan had just been funny for the first time ever, but it turned out he was linking to someone else:

There is no primary. There is no general. There is only this: I am Mitt Romney’s haircut. This is my year, and I will not be denied.

Everything about me is presidential. You may not even know why, but you’ve all thought it, and that’s no accident. I’ve been designed precisely for this moment. I’m a hybrid of every classic American presidential hairstyle since the 1930s. Roosevelt’s fatherly gray temples. Kennedy’s insouciant bouffant. Reagan’s lethal, revolutionary amalgam of feathering and pomade. Think about it this way: what if you could trade in your shitty, 8-year-old Ford Probe for a car that somehow combined the classic flair of a ‘59 Cadillac and the raw authority of a ’68 Mustang? Now imagine ramming that Caddi-stang right through the front doors of the fecking White House. Get the picture? That’s pretty much exactly what I’ll be doing on top of Mitt Romney’s face on November 6, 2012.
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More here McSweeney’s Internet Tendency: Monologue: Mitt Romney
 
mjs020294 said:
NPR did a piece on Bain this evening. It will fizzle out because many of the buy outs Bain are involved in are investment buyouts. They help turn companies around and save them. So although a few people loose their jobs a hell of a lot more jobs are actually saved. They were heavily involved in buyouts of companies like Sports Authority.
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Not all of them though. Many of them are consolidations of two companies, but others they bought, stripped down, fired everyone, and then sold. There will be lots of stories from former employees whose lives were screwed while Bain made tens or hundreds of millions of dollars. It'll be like Joe the Plumber stuff. If this started to hit the air in September/October, it would have really screwed Romney. As is, he'll still be characterized as a man who made millions while thousands of people lost their jobs. Not exactly someone people will fall all over themselves to vote for, especially when the Dems go for the protect the middle-class approach.

It's not a killer on its own, but Romney has tons of weaknesses that are easily exploited.
 
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