US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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Grinner said:



One more for the Obama team to put in an ad.
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I don't see a single thing wrong with this statement, if I don't like my phone service provider, I'll fire them and get a new one, if I don't like the job my accountant is doing, I'll fire him and change to another, if I don't like my dentist I'll stop going and get a new one...... what is wrong with saying this? competition is good, is it not? There is not a single person I know who would keep paying for shite service, this is all hes saying ffs!

Talk about taking stuff out of context
 
Dresilved said:
I don't see a single thing wrong with this statement, if I don't like my phone service provider, I'll fire them and get a new one, if I don't like the job my accountant is doing, I'll fire him and change to another, if I don't like my dentist I'll stop going and get a new one...... what is wrong with saying this? competition is good, is it not? There is not a single person I know who would keep paying for shite service, this is all hes saying ffs!

Talk about taking stuff out of context
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Indeed so though there are all at it, it is pretty funny when you consider how supportive of business these contenders have been over the last twelve months that they now 'apparently' don't like business practice.
 
New Hampshire exit poll:

Romney 30%, Paul 28%, Huntsman 27%



And apparently I only post in CE discussions that are directly related to British policy, in this thread about the US presidential election this is my 223rd post.
 
Devil_forever said:
Who's favourite for the republican nomination?
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Romney by a fair way at the moment

Team Brian GB said:
New Hampshire exit poll:

Romney 30%, Paul 28%, Huntsman 27%

And apparently I only post in CE discussions that are directly related to British policy, in this thread about the US presidential election this is my 223rd post.
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That's surprisingly close if true

Dresilved said:
I don't see a single thing wrong with this statement, if I don't like my phone service provider, I'll fire them and get a new one, if I don't like the job my accountant is doing, I'll fire him and change to another, if I don't like my dentist I'll stop going and get a new one...... what is wrong with saying this? competition is good, is it not? There is not a single person I know who would keep paying for shite service, this is all hes saying ffs!

Talk about taking stuff out of context
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Can't really feel sorry for him though, with his previous in doing the exact same thing.
 
Team Brian GB said:
New Hampshire exit poll:

Romney 30%, Paul 28%, Huntsman 27%



And apparently I only post in CE discussions that are directly related to British policy, in this thread about the US presidential election this is my 223rd post.
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That would be a good result if accurate. Gingrich and Santorum being irrelevant, Romney not dominating and a more moderate republican making an impact.

Paul and Huntsman obviously won't win the nomination but its good to see the libertarians doing well.
 
It is very close but I am not surprised, looking at the polling data over the last few days that had Huntman at 12-14% or so looked very soft compared to the amount of television coverage he has been getting, the number of people talking about him and attending his events.

If such exit polls hold up, and we are still a couple of hours from polls completely closing, then we will be in for another very long night.
 
Drainy said:
That would be a good result if accurate. Gingrich and Santorum being irrelevant, Romney not dominating and a more moderate republican making an impact.

Paul and Huntsman obviously won't win the nomination but its good to see the libertarians doing well.
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That is interesting, Bachmann has dropped out, Perry is ignoring New Hampshire, Santorum's vote looks likely to fall significantly and Paul is holding steady yet he cannot seem to increase his vote share on Iowa.

Very damning if that turns out to be the case.
 
Team Brian GB said:
That is interesting, Bachmann has dropped out, Perry is ignoring New Hampshire, Santorum's vote looks likely to fall significantly and Paul is holding steady yet he cannot seem to increase his vote share on Iowa.

Very damning if that turns out to be the case.
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It does look like all Gingrich has done is damage Romney, rather than boost his own standing with his negative campaigning. Long may it continue :lol:
 
Drainy said:
and there was me worried that Huntsman might struggle since he has 0% chance of winning. Shows how much I know :)
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An interesting one that, if true a sign that moderates aren't overly content with Romney or just a New Hampshire anomaly?
 
Ubik said:
An interesting one that, if true a sign that moderates aren't overly content with Romney or just a New Hampshire anomaly?
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Whether it is an anomaly or not it is a major problem for Romney, he has been able to count on gaining the support of pragmatic republicans, pragmatists and independents up to now whilst everybody else battles it out for the evangelicals, die-hards and libertarians.

Now that he doesn't have that constituency to himself may cause him great discomfort - the right wing of the party have been looking for somebody to defeat him and dislodge him as favourite yet they have been trying to do it from the right which is the reason why he remains favourite in the first place, but if he now comes under pressure on his own territory that makes matters very interesting indeed - even if he ends up winning both Iowa and New Hampshire which is a bizarre notion.
 
Agreed Danny. It would be a big surprise if Paul got that many, though he has invested a lot in NH... and an even bigger one if Huntsman came anywhere near 27%.

Dresilved said:
I don't see a single thing wrong with this statement, if I don't like my phone service provider, I'll fire them and get a new one, if I don't like the job my accountant is doing, I'll fire him and change to another, if I don't like my dentist I'll stop going and get a new one...... what is wrong with saying this? competition is good, is it not? There is not a single person I know who would keep paying for shite service, this is all hes saying ffs!

Talk about taking stuff out of context
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There's nothing wrong with it except how tone-deaf it is. "I like being able to fire people", at a time of 8% unemployment.

He also joked about being unemployed at the moment, when he gets a 26 mil a year salary and is worth ten times that. Plus the pink slips line.

It's a game of perceptions. He doesn't get it.
 
Danny1982 said:
I don't think it'll be this close.. I think the media are looking for some attention..
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There is only one way to find out though as I say I thought the latest opinion polls were very soft and especially so as New Hampshire is notorious for people deciding on the day who in the primaries they will vote for, figures of 35% I was hearing last night who were still making up their minds.
 
Plechazunga said:
There's nothing wrong with it except how tone-deaf it is. "I like being able to fire people", at a time of 8% unemployment.

He also joked about being unemployed at the moment, when he gets a 26 mil a year salary and is worth ten times that. Plus the pink slips line.

It's a game of perceptions. He doesn't get it.
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Individuals never cease in talking about how they think politicians are vague and give wishy-washy answers to questions yet when they give actual answers they get spun out of context into something they never were to begin with. I completely agree with him, if you are not happy with the service somebody is providing you then find somebody else - who has a problem with that?

Naturally he could have been more guarded and mindful of how any sentence could be isolated from the rest of his comments but that doesn't negate his overrall message about health insurance providers, that they should be more receptive to the needs of customers and it should be much easier than it is to shop around.
 
Well you do have to be alive to those realities of press-driven elections if you're gonna be president, TB.

Usually he's pretty careful, and pretty slick, he's had an unusually careless week though. probably tired.

Excal said:
I agree with this, and so does Nate Silver. His median forecast (with lower to upper ranges in paranthesis):

Romney: 39% (27-47)
Paul: 19% (11-27)
Huntsman: 17% (9-26)
Santorum: 12% (6-20)
Gingrich: 11% (5-19)
Perry: 1% (0-3)
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Although he is saying the turnout data look good for Paul and Huntsman:

One number in the New Hampshire exit polls is far more important than any other: how many independent voters turn out. Ron Paul and Jon M Huntsman Jr. perform much more strongly with this group than among registered Republicans, and need a strong independent presence to have a chance of staying close to Mitt Romney.

Although early exit poll data is not always reliable, so far the results look good for Mr. Paul and Mr. Huntsman. Nearly half of voters describe themselves as independents in the exit polls, up considerably from 37 percent in 2008. Most pollsters had assumed independent turnout would be in the low 40's, so this might be an early sign that the pollsters have underestimated the upside potential for Mr. Paul and Mr. Huntsman.

It should be said, however, that Mr. Romney also has plenty of support among New Hampshire's independents. The candidates who might be the most adversely affected by this, instead, are Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum.
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Plechazunga said:
Well you do have to be alive to those realities of press-driven elections if you're gonna be president, TB.
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That I do agree with, from what I hear it came from a Q&A session where somebody ask him a question about health insurance providers so you have to walk a very fine line between not giving a vague response and something that your opponents will jump on you for.

That is the trouble with both the primaries and the elections, they say it prepares you to be the president but it only judges your public relations and receptiveness. I know this sort of thing gets mentioned regularly but how many of the presidents before 1960 would have actually been elected if they had to go through this process?
 
I think the scrutiny is great, and I really like the rough-and-tumble of US politics.

What's not great is the effect of the 24-hour news cycle. If there's no story they just make one, and if a candidate's on the up it's all set for them to fall down within the narrative of the cycle. Santorum, I reckon, mainly got lucky in Iowa...after four others surged while he pootled around in the single digits, he rose just in time for there to be no fall until after the election. It's very random.
 
Plechazunga said:
I think the scrutiny is great, and I really like the rough-and-tumble of US politics.

What's not great is the effect of the 24-hour news cycle. If there's no story they just make one, and if a candidate's on the up it's all set for them to fall down within the narrative of the cycle. Santorum, I reckon, mainly got lucky in Iowa...after four others surged while he pootled around in the single digits, he rose just in time for there to be no fall until after the election. It's very random.
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Scrutiny is great but it is too severe, so many people cannot become the president because it requires different skills - I thought Hillary Clinton would be a better president than Barack Obama but because he is such a great campaigner he won which isn't because of his policies but because of his oratory.

Whilst I do like the glitz and glamour of American politics, that is only because it isn't British, I'd hate if it were like that here.
 
The idiocy is that the result of all this scrutiny is a two horse race who are identical twins.
 
The other thing such extensive scrutiny doesn't allow is controversial decisions and policies which are often required. Individuals get insensed that there is little bipartisanship in Washington, that politicians achieve little and are wishy-washy but if they move on an issue away from the norm only slightly it is absolutely disastrous for their popularity and their future.

Look at Obama, he won a massive mandate, democrats won both houses of Congress and he pushed out a healthcare plan just like he said he would and democrats wanted in the 2008 campaign but look how unpopular that has made him. Politicians of both parties will have noted that and therefore will not do what they think or know to be right but go where the votes are.
 
Team Brian GB said:
Whilst I do like the glitz and glamour of American politics, that is only because it isn't British, I'd hate if it were like that here.
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I agree, its an entertaining spectacle... but I'd hate for British politics to be like that.

Actually its starting to head in a superficial direction. For example, seeing people asking if Ed Miliband is too ugly to be PM makes my blood boil, how is that relevant? Still to questioning his character.
 
Team Brian GB said:
The other thing such extensive scrutiny doesn't allow is controversial decisions and policies which are often required. Individuals get insensed that there is little bipartisanship in Washington, that politicians achieve little and are wishy-washy but if they move on an issue away from the norm only slightly it is absolutely disastrous for their popularity and their future.

Look at Obama, he won a massive mandate, democrats won both houses of Congress and he pushed out a healthcare plan just like he said he would and democrats wanted in the 2008 campaign but look how unpopular that has made him. Politicians of both parties will have noted that and therefore will not do what they think or know to be right but go where the votes are.
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The mandate is actually getting more popular now, it's about 50-50. If he wins another term it will probably be very popular within a couple of years, as people start to see the benefits. My prediction is that if the Republicans don't get in this year it will be basically unrepealable by the time they do.

I don't think Obama's term's a good example, as the Republicans were astonishingly obstructive, beyond all reasonable limits. Bush got quite a lot of his agenda through including large tax cuts for the wealthy.
 
Plechazunga said:
Where did those exit numbers come from btw?

Are we sure that 30-28-27 isn't the breakdown for independent voters?
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Aha - according to the Guardian's coverage, Fox had an exit poll of independents at 30-29-27 to Romney, Paul and Huntsman. Would seem to be it.

Shame, would've been fun.
 
Plechazunga said:
The mandate is actually getting more popular now, it's about 50-50. If he wins another term it will probably be very popular within a couple of years, as people start to see the benefits. My prediction is that if the Republicans don't get in this year it will be basically unrepealable by the time they do.

I don't think Obama's term's a good example, as the Republicans were astonishingly obstructive, beyond all reasonable limits. Bush got quite a lot of his agenda through including large tax cuts for the wealthy.
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First off let me say I agree 100% that they were complete knobs and opposed nearly everything strictly because he's a dem. But his first two years he didn't need their approval. They had a super majority and a majority in the Senate and House. Reid and Pelosi did poor jobs consolidating their party. There were some big philosphical differences within the democratic party that made things hard on health care.
 
Cali Red said:
First off let me say I agree 100% that they were complete knobs and opposed nearly everything strictly because he's a dem. But his first two years he didn't need their approval. They had a super majority and a majority in the Senate and House. Reid and Pelosi did poor jobs consolidating their party. There were some big philosphical differences within the democratic party that made things hard on health care.
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That's true. It's hard consolidating the Democrats I reckon, for two reasons - one good and one bad. The good one is that they're not as authoritarian by nature as the GOP. The bad one is that they're an absolute shambles.
 
Plechazunga said:
That's true. It's hard consolidating the Democrats I reckon, for two reasons - one good and one bad. The good one is that they're not as authoritarian by nature as the GOP. The bad one is that they're an absolute shambles.
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True. There's such a wide spread of philosophy in the democratic party. Abortion rights, enviorment, etc all vary quite a bit by region. Nothern Dem vs Southern Dem and whatnot.
 
Plechazunga said:
Where did those exit numbers come from btw?

Are we sure that 30-28-27 isn't the breakdown for independent voters?
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Fox News - the only American news network we get here as broadcast stateside, CNN International is rubbish.
 
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