US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

Status
Not open for further replies.
Its a win win situation for Obama. If its Romney, the base will stay home and Obama will win by 100-200 electoral votes just like he did with McCain. If its a nutter like Gingrich or Santorum, it will energize the progressives to turn out in greater numbers. If the current trajectory of the economy continues into next year, I don't think Obama will have any difficulty.
 
I keep hearing that the dem base aren't thrilled and won't turn out. Of course they will...what else can they do? They won't sit back and let a repub sneak in.
 
Raoul said:
Its a win win situation for Obama. If its Romney, the base will stay home and Obama will win by 100-200 electoral votes just like he did with McCain.
Click to expand...

100 maybe. Up towards 180 like last time, no chance.

If the current trajectory of the economy continues into next year, I don't think Obama will have any difficulty.
Click to expand...

Right, but it's a big if, with the global economy so precarious. The Euro's drowning, India's struggling badly, even China's about to have a serious housing bust.

Grinner said:
I keep hearing that the dem base aren't thrilled and won't turn out. Of course they will...what else can they do? They won't sit back and let a repub sneak in.
Click to expand...

There's a difference between turning out and advocating for free, for months, like crazy, like they did last time. The base isn't that many people, there's a big difference between them voting and them persuading others to vote.
 
You have to go state by state Plech. Romney is polling exceptionally weak in the south, which is the Republicans home field. To me this suggests that Obama can compete strongly and retain Florida, NC, and Virginia - which will probably yield similar electoral totals to 2008.
 
Raoul said:
You have to go state by state Plech. Romney is polling exceptionally weak in the south, which is the Republicans home field. To me this suggests that Obama can compete strongly and retain Florida, NC, and Virginia - which will probably yield similar electoral totals to 2008.
Click to expand...

This is why Rubio is being touted as VP pick.
 
Grinner said:
Yes, but this time Barry has a billion dollars. He doesn't need all those volunteers.
Click to expand...

Does he? fecking hell. Those insurance firms and Wall Street banks are good friends to have.

Raoul said:
You have to go state by state Plech. Romney is polling exceptionally weak in the south, which is the Republicans home field. To me this suggests that Obama can compete strongly and retain Florida, NC, and Virginia - which will probably yield similar electoral totals to 2008.
Click to expand...

Interesting, but surely that's in part because they're being presented with alternatives. Romney at the moment is being offered as part of a suite of choices who aren't northern-state Mormon management consultants. Once he gets the nomination and it's him v Obama I'm sure Republicans will rally round.

If Obama wins North Carolina and Virginia again I will drink a pint of yak vomit.
 
Plechazunga said:
Interesting, but surely that's in part because they're being presented with alternatives. Romney at the moment is being offered as part of a suite of choices who aren't northern-state Mormon management consultants. Once he gets the nomination and it's him v Obama I'm sure Republicans will rally round.
Click to expand...

Don't underestimate the power of the foregone conclusion. If it's November and Ohio is pretty solidly in the Obama camp, and the question isn't if Obama wins but by how much, Romney'll be a northern-state Mormon management consultant who's going to lose anyway, and a lot of those Republicans will just stay home.
 
Obama will have his second term, I have no doubt.
Firstly, the democratic base has grown....just more hispanics and younger voters.
Secondly on the money front. Obama todate has more small donors now than he had in 2008. That translates to more votes. So it is not all Wall Street..

There is a very entusuastic minority that hates Obama and will turn out...but nowhere near the number that have seen what the GOP has done over the two years they have had Congress. The Payroll tax issue was a disaster for the GOP.

I expect Obama to win by a near landslide if not exactly a repeat of 2008. Dems will retain Senate but will just fall short of taking back Congress.


...but if the wind is stronger...hey....this time they Dems will have it all...and actually have real democrats in congress rather than Blue Dogs.
 
Question is will repubs decide to work with him or take their toys and go home? The country can't take another 4 years of bickering.
 
Hopefully. The majority of people would be in support of that. Just fecking govern and live or die by your policies.
 
Excal said:
At that point I think the Dems reconsider the "nuclear option" that got discussed, i.e. doing away with the filibuster as its used today.
Click to expand...

This time they will not only have the support of the people but the repubs wont get a majority in the senate again.

To answer Grin....the GOP congress wont do the same nonsense another two years. What would be tHe point? Obama wont run again...and do they really want to give another weapon to the Dems to use when a new person runs in 2016?
 
Maybe needs to go elsewhere, but what do you guys make of this:

Mr Obama said in November on a visit to Canberra, Australia, that the Asia-Pacific was now a top priority for the US. That speech was seen as a challenge to the rising regional power of China.

"As I made clear in Australia, we'll be strengthening our presence in the Asia-Pacific, and budget reductions will not come at the expense of this critical region," he told media at the Pentagon.
Click to expand...
 
niMic said:
Filibustering needs to be removed. It's ridiculous. The first time I heard about it I thought someone was parodying the US political system.
Click to expand...
I'm familiar with filibusters, but this walking into an empty Senate every three days and banging a club stuff was new to me until yesterday.
 
I think the Repubicans have a decent shot of taking back the Senate, especially with the likes of Ben Nelson retiring. There's no Tea Party narrative this coming year, so the Dems may be able to squeek out a few seats, but with the Senate so close, you just don't know which way its going to end up.
 
Todays job numbers will certainly help Obama. Good news for the country at least. If the economy continues a rebound he'll have no problem with the election.
 
Raoul said:
I think the Repubicans have a decent shot of taking back the Senate, especially with the likes of Ben Nelson retiring. There's no Tea Party narrative this coming year, so the Dems may be able to squeek out a few seats, but with the Senate so close, you just don't know which way its going to end up.
Click to expand...

I feel confident about the senate...just ;)

The Congress would be a real bonus.
 
Interesting movement in the polling stats. I've never followed an election this closely, and I was wondering why they would start with Iowa. But I can see how it's a very, very Evangelical state, they're going to vote for the best Pat Robertson impersonator, and that person will get a bump. It's a subtle way to give more influence to a more extreme member of the party.

So the Santorum surge has gone like this:

Gallup National: Romney 29, Newt 17, Ass Juice 16, Paul 12
New Hampshire Average: Romney 41, Paul 20, Ass Juice 11, Newt 9. Juicy had 4% before the Iowa result.
S. Carolina Average: Romney 31, Ass Juice 21, Newt 20, Paul 11. Juicy had 2.7% 5 days ago.
Florida...well, old people are slower to react, Ass Juice is at 1.5% and Newt leads by 35 to 28 over Romney, no one else is in it as of now.

I think it's fair to say that Ass Juice's surge nationally, in NH and SC are due to the sheep effect of seeing his success in Iowa, it's not like we've learned anything more or new about him.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination
 
I liked Perry's Jamie Redknapp moment, had to double take to check it was still good ol' Rick standing there.
 
"Iranians going to go in there at the speed of light" :lol:

I hope our Texan hero could save us from us those dastardly Iranians

leiar2d2.jpg
 
RedKaos said:
"Iranians going to go in there at the speed of light" :lol:

I hope our Texan hero could save us from us those dastardly Iranians

leiar2d2.jpg
Click to expand...

Don't forget the "literally" :D
 
Status
Not open for further replies.