US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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Rove thinks Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, VA, NH, NC all go to Romney, and that PA, NV and WI are all in play.
 
Are Democrats this spastic when they're about to lose? I wasn't really following American presidential politics the last time a Democrat was about to lose.
 
Feeky_Magee said:
Are Democrats this spastic when they're about to lose? I wasn't really following American presidential politics the last time a Democrat was about to lose.
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Apparently in 04 a lot of the same arguments about skewed polls happened.
 
Saw some guy on Charlie Rose say that if the Democratic vote in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut is depressed due to the hurricane Obama could lose the popular vote and win the electoral college which will fuel total hysteria on the republican side. They will conveniently forget what happened in 2000. Despite all the polls I am still very nervous in case people do not actually get out and vote.
 
Watching Obama's last speech in Iowa. Remarkable. He's such a bloody good orator. The story about that "fired up" woman was wonderful, and beautifully delivered.
 
Well todays the day. I personally haven't enjoyed this presidential election. It's been the worse for a while. Romney is not going to win. Results will appear closer than they are but thats because America is a polarised political system with some that cling to their politics with religious fervor.

I am though looking forward to the next election more. I can't think of any potential democrat presidential candidates but there is a few republicans from the not so frigging loony side that come to mind straight away. With it being a clean slate election it will provide for a better spectacle.
 
Dear America, Please Don't Fall for This Shit Again

Billions have been spent for one purpose and one purpose only: to obscure and distract from the fact that Mitt Romney is backing the identical agenda George W Bush did.

It's really and truly that simple.

Lower taxes for the rich, cutting regulations for Wall Street, hawkish foreign policy with in many cases the same neocon foreign policy advisers W. Bush used make Romney/Ryan "W Bush 2: The Sequel to the Greatest Disaster Movie in Recent U.S. History, Available in Imax."

So please, America, don't fall for this con all over again. Taxes for the rich are at record lows. The uber-wealthy and corps hide profits overseas and work the loopholes to avoid paying what they should. And because of the resulting tax shortfall, deficits soar and education and infrastructure are cut. Why in God's name would anyone in their right mind support cutting taxes for the wealthy more? Especially when it's been proven over and over again to do very little for the economy?

[..]

But Obama is a socialist! He's made things worse! What about the deficit?! Stop your witchy liberal word spells!

These objections to Obama are nonsense and lies at best. They just are. This isn't a "liberal" POV. It's just the truth. Obama does have real failings as a president (illegal drone strikes, a baffling desire to make more trade deals, failure to prosecute past war crimes), but being a socialist big spender is not remotely one of them. The stock market and corporate profits have soared under the Obama administration. And the deficit is 60 percent from tax short falls from the '08 collapse and 20 percent from the Iraq war finally being properly counted. Only $1 trillion of the $5 trillion deficit is from spending that was for the stimulus package that stopped our nation from falling into a depression by any economic metric available. The fact is Obama has spent less than any president in 50 years.

[..]

But Romney and his billionaire backers have twisted facts and outright lied like we've never seen before. And why? Because if they had to stand on the issues they wouldn't receive a vote. Because Romney and Ryan are exactly on the same page as W. Bush. And that page is stained with champagne and sturgeon eggs.

If Romney wins it will be because voters voted for the lies and the brand ID of the Republican party, not because of facts, context and reality. This is the essence of how a con works. The con man gets the mark to respond emotionally rather than logically. Please, don't fall for it. With climate change becoming the biggest challenge of the next hundred years we can't afford four years more of corruption, misinformation and inaction. We just can't.

We must give up on this blind brand allegiance nonsense -- "the Republican party is for self-reliance and America" -- and start looking at the reality of what they do. They ignored warnings on 9/11, making us far less safe, give billions in subsidies to oil companies, no-bid contracts to the former vice president's company, cut taxes for the rich during a war, stand against equal pay for women, froze the budget to drive our AAA rating down. They are corrupt, for the rich getting richer and for dismantling our government including FEMA, Medicare, and Social Security.

And worst of all, the Republicans do everything they can to make it hard for people to vote. This isn't just creepy and dirty. This is anti-American and an insult to all those that have given their lives for our right to vote.
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Silver, on the last day, has moved Florida back into the light blue column, although its by less than .5 of a percent, which if it holds true will trigger an automatic recount. Also, Virginia and Colorado are at above 80% to go Obama now.
 
I just don't get that. How can Nate('s model) be so "sure" about OH, VA, CO, NH, IA, NV, WI, and far-right douchebags be equally certain that Romney will win in a landslide?

This is going to be really embarrassing for somebody.
 
The right wingers are cherry picking polls like Rasmussen, Gallop, and Gravis to paint a rosier picture for their cause. Silver has a proper statistical model where he weights a myriad of variables and polling averages to infer what is statistically likely to happen. Given that Silver got 49 out of 50 correct in 2008, I'd say Silver's numbers are far more accurate.
 
Raoul said:
The right wingers are cherry picking polls like Rasmussen, Gallop, and Gravis to paint a rosier picture for their cause. Silver has a proper statistical model where he weights a myriad of variables and polling averages to infer what is statistically likely to happen. Given that Silver got 49 out of 50 correct in 2008, I'd say Silver's numbers are far more accurate.
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Well, yeah. What I meant to say that it just seems so utterly shameless and flat out ludicrous to be as confident as so many on the right seem to be if you don't really believe it to be true. Are they all sacrificing all their credibility on a bluff? It's baffling to me. I mean, being optimistic and predicting a narrow win I could maybe understand, but they genuinely seem to believe he'll get like 330 EV.
 
This is an actual case of "reality has a liberal bias". Mjs and CNN on the other hand would tell you that they're equally valid approaches, it's just that one will end up being correct, seemingly by random chance.
 
Saliph said:
Well, yeah. What I meant to say that it just seems so utterly shameless and flat out ludicrous to be as confident as so many on the right seem to be if you don't really believe it to be true. Are they all sacrificing all their credibility on a bluff? It's baffling to me. I mean, being optimistic and predicting a narrow win I could maybe understand, but they genuinely seem to believe he'll get like 330 EV.
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They have to come across as a bit pompous about winning because not doing so would influence the enthusiasm of their voting base to not come out as much. If it looks like a forgone conclusion that Obama will be reelected, a good number of Republicans may stay home. You can bet Romney's concession speech will be distinctly humble.
 
niMic said:
Hillary will definitely run again.
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As a weaker political force than eight years prior though.

Like gambit wondered, who makes up he new guard in the Democratic Party at present, can the Americans on here put forward some names? Who are the counterparts of Rubio, Christie and Martinez for then?

Are we sure that Palin is going to keep clear of 2016? Is she going to continue to content herself with being a media figure?



I have been keeping tabs since the early stages of the race to become the Republican nominee, the intention on my part is to follow events through the night but we'll see how it goes.

For all Romney's faults, the GOP flirted with Gingrich and Santorum as their candidate [more so the latter].
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
As a weaker political force than eight years prior though.

Like gambit wondered, who makes up he new guard in the Democratic Party at present, can the Americans on here put forward some names? Who are the counterparts of Rubio, Christie and Martinez for then?

Are we sure that Palin is going to keep clear of 2016? Is she going to continue to content herself with being a media figure?



I have been keeping tabs since the early stages of the race to become the Republican nominee, the intention on my part is to follow events through the night but we'll see how it goes.

For all Romney's faults, the GOP flirted with Gingrich and Santorum as their candidate [more so the latter].
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Until he got his cock out I though Weiner would be in there at least on a vice president level. Now I'm drawing a blank though.

It was the worst candidacy for the GOP ever as they brought out so many loons that Romney became the only real choice. Hopefully though it will put to bed the neo-con religious romance of the republicans and they can get on with a major overhaul with the likes of Christie, Rubio and so on. I reckon Condi Rice should have a go.
 
Hillary Clinton will probably run after taking a year or two off from politics. She would be the front runner against any of the recent group of GOP hipsters like Rubio etc.

Dems:

Hillary Clinton
Martin O'Malley
Mark Warner
Tim Kaine
Jim Webb
Andrew Cuomo
Rahm Emmanuel
Julian Castro
Corey Booker
Deval Patrick
John Hickenlooper
and probably a few others would be interested. Hillary would obviously be the clear front runner if she ran.
 
Will Obama take Michigan? Talk to me people!
 
Confirmed results:

Dixville Notch, NH -

Obama 5
Romney 5


Hart's Location, NH -

Obama 23
Romney 9
Johnson 1


From little acorns to might oaks and all that.
 
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