On the right column on 538, Nate has removed NV and WI from the list of competitive states. 
US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012
- Thread starter Team Brian GB
- Start date
- Status
Worst case scenario where O still wins.
So despite the polls still showing this is on a knife edge, you guys who know your US Political Onions are basically all completely confident Obama will win now. Is that right?
He's a massive favourite. But I'm not sure 'completely confident' accurately describes my current mental state. The less wussy among us are bullish though yes.
The polls aren't showing this on a knife edge, they're showing Obama with a strong lead
Political opinions aren't really relevant at this stage. The statistical models show Obama to be in a strong position in most of the important states he needs to win tomorrow, which is what many on here are referencing their data from.
No, but simply the probability of an Obama win is much higher than that of a Romney's
Something new to worry about. Drew Linzer, whose model has maintained an extremely stable prediction for the whole campaign - he's the Raoul of statistical forecasters - reckons the pollsters are now changing their results to fit the herd.
What about likely voter turnout? Do the polls capture the probability of voters turning up? I am no expert in this but I always thought the demographic advantage the Dems have in the US tends to be offset by the zealousness of (some) Rep voters. Basically, the Christian Right, the Pro Life nutters, the Tea Partyers, all that lot, turn up to vote as part of their crusade against the moral degradation of America, whereas many more mainstream voters, who do not see the election in quite such apocalyptic terms, dont bother.
Is this a factor? Or is the right more divided than usual because of the mormon thing, or because he is not trusted to deliver on the tea party agenda?
Is this a factor? Or is the right more divided than usual because of the mormon thing, or because he is not trusted to deliver on the tea party agenda?
Weird from Linzer!! Isn't this simply " reversion to the mean " !! it happens with all elections I think, herding around the "correct" value.
In fact, that's what happens as you approach election day where many pollsters back off from their earlier biased predictions.
I guess so. If Linzer's concerned about it I assume it's worth thinking* about though.
*panicking
On the other hand, Nate's an actual statistician, whereas Wang's a neurologist with a website.
*panicking
On the other hand, Nate's an actual statistician, whereas Wang's a neurologist with a website.
Wang seems easier to listen to in interviews, whereas Silver's actual blog posts seem a bit easier to digest. They're both correct which is all that matters.
Dunno, if the Dem machine pumps that out over the airwaves the next 24 hrs it might help
I guarantee regardless of whoever wins this election this number will continue to rise, U.S. Debt Per American Under 18 = $218,676. With either candidate having a real plan to reduce it, it will simply be passed onto the next President.
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/4-y...d-existing-home-173100-us-debt-american-under
The short sidedness of Government will be the demise of this Nation.
"Debt is the road to ruin" - Gilluminati
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/4-y...d-existing-home-173100-us-debt-american-under
The short sidedness of Government will be the demise of this Nation.
"Debt is the road to ruin" - Gilluminati
If Romney paid no taxes by using the Mormon church as a shelter, he needs to be outed. Reid, as a fellow Mormon, probably had some inside info in this regard.
All the polls are likely voter models and have been for a couple of months at least - registered voter polls always show Obama with a bigger lead. The makeup of the electorate also shouldn't be too different to 08, and the Obama ground team is second to none at getting people to the voting booths. Basically the only worry now is that the polls were massively wrong, but that's a quite slim chance it seems.
This should be in another thread. But while the public debt needs addressing, it's not nearly as cataclysmic as you're making out, for the simple reason that most of it is owed to other Americans, and so counts as an asset as well as a debt.
Much more worrying is the seemingly unstoppable rise in medical costs.
The Debt would go up by a lot more under a Romney administration because he has no way of paying for his tax cuts plan. He will not have the guts to raise taxes on the middle class.
The way to really reduce debt is initially to spend on jobs. More people in the workforce will generate revenue (taxes). and yes. You need to raise taxes on the rich. Also close the loopholes where they do not pay American taxes.
debt reduction in a recession is irresponsible and will only prolong the recession if not make it worse.
The War against Terrorism & War of Right Wing Sons of Whores cost - $3-4Trillion. Maybe if we stayed away from 'nation building', we could have saved thousands of lives and trillions of $$$$$.
Find a trillion to fund medicare...No! It's irresponsible, we can't afford it.
Find a trillion to wage war based on nothing but lies - how does a blank check sound?
Find a trillion to fund medicare...No! It's irresponsible, we can't afford it.
Find a trillion to wage war based on nothing but lies - how does a blank check sound?
Larry Sabato's gone with 290 for Obama, NH, CO and VA all tossups though http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/projection-obama-will-likely-win-second-term/
Just saw a CNN poll. Over 50% of Americans expect the results to be known on Tuesday night. 28% expect it to take to Wednesay sometime. 22% expect it to take days at least before the winner can be determined.
That's a national poll. You have to look at the state-by-state results.
Ladbrokes has Obama at 1.20, and Romney at 4.50
Who?
the pizza guy...
I'm completely confident that I'm bricking it.
Also disgusted with what a farce the electoral college has made the election process. 12,500 posts and the vast majority of them quibbling over fractional percentiles in a few states. It's embarrassing.
I don't blame you all for doing it as it is the reality of it, but it really does highlight how ridiculous it becomes, especially in a close election.
Also a bit worried about a warped popular vote this time around as NY and NJ are going to have problems getting to the stations (which ironically makes a bit of a good point for that damnable electoral college).
Has this been in the mainstream press?????
It's in Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...es-via-loophole-cutting-mormon-donations.html
Doubt CNN will treat the story with anything more than derision though.
I don't want uniformed people in the red states deciding who the president will be. For now I prefer the electrol college especially with teh changing demographics favouring us.
cynical I know...but far less cynical than the open voter suppression being carried out in Florida.
Hope Rick Scot carks it soon...
Having a last minute change of heart, going to walk into the voting booth on Tuesday and vote for myself (done this a few times in the past). Not that it will matter much, live in NY State, Obama is a lock (good news). But it is nice adding my name to the history of people who receive votes for President. Plus my debate performance was better.
Getting close now.
Do we have the lineups and formations yet?
Do we have the lineups and formations yet?
I'm leaving early from work tomorrow to vote.
Just got information on MN Supreme Court Judges to vote for based on Progressive site recommendation.
Got all the DFL candidates names and will remind my family to vote NO on the marriage and Voter Id ballot amendments.
Current polling looks like both will fail.
Just got information on MN Supreme Court Judges to vote for based on Progressive site recommendation.
Got all the DFL candidates names and will remind my family to vote NO on the marriage and Voter Id ballot amendments.
Current polling looks like both will fail.
Obama is playing right Romney is really outside outside right
This is hilarious
That wasnt funny. Unless I missed something.
I think the EV is a pretty good system. (Aside from the daft thing about the electors technically being able to change the choice... that should be scrapped.)
Each state being represented by two senators is ridiculous though. As is the situation with DC.
Not far off though. If you believe in democracy you have to accept that people whose views you despise will be heard too. That's kind of the point.
will disagree Plech.
we must prevent this country from going down to the lowest category.
we must prevent this country from going down to the lowest category.
You could also say, that a few years ago, Nate was a management consultant with a baseball column.
What the earthly feck is an 'actual statistician' btw? Is that someone who contributes to advances in theory? That's not Nate. Or is it possible that many, many professions make use of commonly applied stats approaches? Such as people who engage in research and need to make sense of their studies? A neuroscientist / bio-physicist perhaps?
A neurologist, btw, is someone who treats neurological disorders. You need sleep...
- Status