US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

Status
Not open for further replies.
Not even America is stupid enough to elect Romney in as President
 
Plechazunga said:
Isn't that pretty doable though, given that many Democrats will have already voted?

I can't seem to get hold of the maths of early voting.



I think Obama's campaign has been almost flawless. They decided to go defensive, which is reasonable since it was theirs to lose. They made a gamble putting resources into early advertising to solidify Romney's image as a heartless plutocrat (though if they had advance knowledge of the 47% video it was less of a gamble). They seem to have targeted the right states.

The only feck-up was debate 1. There the fault largely lies with O, though the campaign should have anticipated that Mitt would finally etch-a-sketch.

Look, from the beginning the political scientists said the economic conditions and factors like incumbency pointed to a close race in which Obama had a small advantage. That seems to be how it's panned out. Romney has been somewhat weaker than expected, so maybe it's reasonable to say the Obama campaign has failed to press home its advantage as much as it might have. But incompetent?

If you're talking about Democratic messaging from 08 to 10 though, then I agree. That's when it should have been branded in the public imagination as the Republican Recession, with Obama as firefighter-in-chief. I can't understand why they let that get away in the name of looking bipartisan. But by the time of the campaign it was pretty much unsalvageable (short of having Bill Clinton speak everywhere every day).
Click to expand...

Yes, I mean exactly how they managed 08-10. I mean, it will take multiple presidential terms, to rectify the mess Bush made. That the Republicans were able to frame it like, "2 years and Obama hasn't fixed the country? LIAR!" is so bizarre it defies belief.

Obviously hardline Republicans will go with this no matter what, but the problem is it wasn't just the hard line Republicans.

Assuming Obama wins, and it certainly looks like he will. Hopefully he doesn't play nice this term. Hopefully by 2014 the Democrats will hold the Senate and the House and then he can just rail road everything he should have done 08 to 10.
 
Romney is in PA tonight. Do they really think its in play or is it just a bluff to show that their so confident of winning that they can even nab a safe Obama state.
 
Nucks said:
Yes, I mean exactly how they managed 08-10. I mean, it will take multiple presidential terms, to rectify the mess Bush made. That the Republicans were able to frame it like, "2 years and Obama hasn't fixed the country? LIAR!" is so bizarre it defies belief.
Click to expand...

Agreed.

And 2 years? John Stewart showed a clip of conservative commentators suggesting he was at fault for the worsening recession fully 8 days into his term.

Assuming Obama wins, and it certainly looks like he will. Hopefully he doesn't play nice this term. Hopefully by 2014 the Democrats will hold the Senate and the House and then he can just rail road everything he should have done 08 to 10.
Click to expand...

They must surely have learnt that trying to look conciliatory achieves nothing. They need to shout REPUBLICAN EXTREMISM from the rooftops at every single turn.

They also have a decent hand with the fiscal cliff...although it hits welfare quite hard, it's otherwise a conservative nightmare of tax rises on the wealthy and cuts to the military.

Only problem is, it's dangerous to play Russian Roulette with these maniacs. Maybe they figure it's worth the pain to their bank accounts if it lops another point or two off GDP in time for 2014...
 
Ole's_toe_poke said:
Romney is in PA tonight. Do they really think its in play or is it just a bluff to show that their so confident of winning that they can even nab a safe Obama state.
Click to expand...

Desperation.

Obama has got the ground game sewn up. No early voting there. Election day voting.

Clinton going there just in case...but really it is almost impossible for Romney to win. He has to get all his voters out and flip huge numbers of Democrats.

McCain did the same in 2008.
 
Red Dreams said:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/...-With-a-Dem-Turnout-Bang-Now-Comes-E-DAY-GOTV

looks good
Click to expand...

Looking at the recent polling I just can't see it.

Ole's_toe_poke said:
Romney is in PA tonight. Do they really think its in play or is it just a bluff to show that their so confident of winning that they can even nab a safe Obama state.
Click to expand...

Nate Silver's current article suggests that it's a reasonable move. Even though it's a long shot, given the state of Ohio (hehe...the state of Ohio :o) it might be his best.
 
Nate's just updated his prediction. No real dip corresponding to Princeton's... I assume that's because the model is cancelling out Romney's better polling today against against the sand running out of the hourglass.
 
Plechazunga said:
Agreed.

And 2 years? John Stewart showed a clip of conservative commentators suggesting he was at fault for the worsening recession fully 8 days into his term.



They must surely have learnt that trying to look conciliatory achieves nothing. They need to shout REPUBLICAN EXTREMISM from the rooftops at every single turn.

They also have a decent hand with the fiscal cliff...although it hits welfare quite hard, it's otherwise a conservative nightmare of tax rises on the wealthy and cuts to the military.

Only problem is, it's dangerous to play Russian Roulette with these maniacs. Maybe they figure it's worth the pain to their bank accounts if it lops another point or two off GDP in time for 2014...
Click to expand...

Biden in his interview with Matthews just said he has assurances from certain Republicans they will work with the President. Of Course he would not reveal who they are.
 
Plechazunga said:
Looking at the recent polling I just can't see it.



Nate Silver's current article suggests that it's a reasonable move. Even though it's a long shot, given the state of Ohio (hehe...the state of Ohio :o) it might be his best.
Click to expand...

Plech. the recent polling does Not take into account voters registered and voting this cycle.

Not saying that means Obama will win...but he has at least a 50/50 chance in NC
 
Red Dreams said:
Biden in his interview with Matthews just said he has assurances from certain Republicans they will work with the President. Of Course he would not reveal who they are.
Click to expand...

Maybe these guys?

empty-congress.jpg
 
Silver's model is weird sometimes, Obama had good national poll day but his chances of winning the PV went down 2%.
 
It's times like this I wish I took more care in my edits :(
 
Wang's gone with Romney +0.5, FL
Romney +2, NC

EV 303

Looks pretty final.
 
If only PPP was not a biased pollster, I would be more relaxed.

Anyway, I am still relatively relaxed
 
PPP has a load more battleground bolls out tonight so the Wangulator might change a bit again.
 
That's just Florida and NC moving a bit more toward Romney though which have a lot of EVs, the meta-margin went up a bit since the last update.
 
CNN's final national poll : TIED at 49%

Edit: sample just 693 likely voters
 
Avatar said:
Thanks.

But now Wang has Florida Tied :)
Click to expand...

Nope, look again.

EDIT: He needs a new webmaster! On the home page are the 8PM updates, on the rest of the site, 4:59 PM. The numbers I posted above are from the 8 PM update.
 
Plechazunga said:
I fecking hope so, that spike down has scared the shit out of me..admittedly not a hard thing to do.

Not crazy about the recent CO polling either. Is that arse Gary Johnson responsible for this?
Click to expand...

What'll get me through the night is this:

34ybi51.jpg


Hold Ohio, Iowa and PA and here's nothing Mitt can do.


Avatar said:
CNN's final national poll : TIED at 49%

Edit: sample just 693 likely voters
Click to expand...

You want a big sample size? Check out YouGov's final national poll:

http://cdn.yougov.com/r/1/ygTabs_november_likelyvoters_National.pdf

Thirty-six fecking thou, Obama 2 points up. get in.

I'm going to bed while this brief wave of testosterone lasts.
 
Plechazunga said:
I fecking hope so, that spike down has scared the shit out of me..admittedly not a hard thing to do.

Not crazy about the recent CO polling either. Is that arse Gary Johnson responsible for this?
Click to expand...

He claims to have about 4% there, which doesn't seem implausible given CO's proximity to NM and the high number of socially liberal, fiscally conservative voters.
 
Plechazunga said:
What'll get me through the night is this:



Hold Ohio, Iowa, PA and NH and there's nothing Mitt can do.




You want a big sample size? Check out YouGov's final national poll:

http://cdn.yougov.com/r/1/ygTabs_november_likelyvoters_National.pdf

Thirty-six fecking thou, Obama 2 points up. get in.

I'm going to bed while this brief wave of testosterone lasts.
Click to expand...

Yeah I saw it earlier. It sampled more democrats than republicans though, but not sure that would be considered an error.

The electoral map you posted would make sense if Nevada is blue rather than Iowa..not that it will make a difference :) . Also NM is blue.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.