US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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Ubik said:
YouGov have a ton of new state polls out -

Obama: New Hampshire +4, Nevada +4, Wisconsin +4, Ohio +3, Virginia +2, Iowa up 1, Colorado up 1

Romney: North Carolina +2, Florida up 1.
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Yougov are a brilliant pollster.
 
Ubik said:
They're certainly prolific, those were just the ones with less than a +5 either way, and they all had decent samples. Must've cost a ton.
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Nah they got an online panel, they put questions like these in with their brand questions which they send out weekly I think.

Anyway on Ohio:

Obama is hardly contested in the Cleveland area, enjoying a 64%-30% lead there among likely voters. The President also holds marginal leads in eastern Ohio (49%-44%) and in the Columbus area (51% Obama-45% Romney). Romney leads by a wide margin in southern Ohio and the Cincinnati area, 57% Romney-40% Obama, and a narrow lead in northwest Ohio/Toledo (51%-43%).
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Oh yeah, forgot they were online. Colorado indies are interesting, judging by early voting he needs to win them and that matches up with what they've got.
 
Just over 48 hours of this shit left, thank feck. Hopefully Obama can get things moving his second term and Mittens can just feck off somewhere and count his money.
 
Ubik said:
Oh yeah, forgot they were online. Colorado indies are interesting, judging by early voting he needs to win them and that matches up with what they've got.
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COlorado might end up the tighest state. The early-voting registration is advantage Rep in the state!
 
I've been confident of an Obama win pretty much since he got bin laden. But I've got a bad feeling lately.
 
Jaz said:
COlorado might end up the tighest state. The early-voting registration is advantage Rep in the state!
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Yeah, the Dems only had a 2 point advantage last time round though, and still won by 9 points. All depends on the indies. If they're under-counting Hispanic voters in polls as well, as is possible, Mitt's goose is already cooked.
 
Red Dreams said:
It will be close in FL and NC...thats it.

Otherwise Obama will win all the other 'swing' states.

I don't think it will be a long night at all. its all media hype.
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Yeah, when he wins Ohio, it's officially Mittens Concession Time.
 
Red Dreams said:
look for VA and NC calls. they would likely come before OH...if Obama gets either, its over.
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Possibility of a margin of less than 0.5% and automatic recount in those, no such issues with Ohio.
 
Red Dreams said:
Obama wont need CO
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Yup, I know, but I want it to be a rout :D

The Pew result has made me rest a bit easier about the popular vote and supports the Silver/Wang theory (that's surprisingly catchy).

Also RD - if VA and NC are close, surely they wouldn't be called till way after OH? NC was the next day last time round.
 
Obama's gone from 1.5 to 1.3 on betfair, with another £5M lumped on him over the last week - it's all over bar the shouting.
 
Ubik said:
Yup, I know, but I want it to be a rout :D

The Pew result has made me rest a bit easier about the popular vote and supports the Silver/Wang theory (that's surprisingly catchy).

Also RD - if VA and NC are close, surely they wouldn't be called till way after OH? NC was the next day last time round.
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just going from my fading memory...I thought NC was declared before VA...and VA came in for Obama too a few hours later.

I may be wrong.
 
Wang's got Obama +2 in CO, up from tied earlier today
VA +3 up from +2
FL tied from +0.5
NC -0.5, unchanged
 
Raoul said:
Its obviously not an issue to the non Caucasians who aren't voting for him anyway. If there was any legitimacy to that line of questioning, you can bet the Dems would be all over it. Its just not on anyone's radar, and rightfully so, given the other problems the country is facing. Obama is also intelligent enough to know that attacking someone's religion is a non-starter in US political discourse.
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Adzzz said:
Not at all, you assume that but other than yougov, which suggests an Obama win anyway i've barely looked at them. I just have a bad feeling.
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I think you can relax.. It's pretty close to impossible that Obama is going to lose this IMO. I think he'll end up with more than 300 electoral votes.
 
Red Dreams said:
just going from my fading memory...I thought NC was declared before VA...and VA came in for Obama too a few hours later.

I may be wrong.
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I was fairly pathetic a few days back and read back through the live-text of the 08 election on BBC, in UK time Ohio was projected for Obama at 2.30ish, Virginia at 4, Florida 4.30 and North Carolina sometime the next day. Makes sense given he only won it by 14,000 odd votes.
 
Well Obama is more right wing than our Canadian Prime Minister, US religion and politics are very strange and I go over the bridge to the USA usually every week. I still can"t fathom it
 
Ubik said:
I was fairly pathetic a few days back and read back through the live-text of the 08 election on BBC, in UK time Ohio was projected for Obama at 2.30ish, Virginia at 4, Florida 4.30 and North Carolina sometime the next day. Makes sense given he only won it by 14,000 odd votes.
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fair enough mate.

the voter enthusiasm gap has disappeared completely. Democrats are eager to vote and many are angry with the voter suppression efforts they see in places like Florida and Ohio.

Just heard that for Romney to win NC he will have to turn out 65% of the remaining votes there.

Looking good for Obama.
 
Hectic said:
Yeah it's a damn shame really.
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Agreed. It shows how completely incompetent Obama's campaign has been to give Romney even a sniff. The fact that the Republican campaign has been able to shunt so much of Bush Jr's cockup onto Obama is baffling.

That or the average voter in America is semi-retarded.

I'm not sure which is more disconcerting ;p

I've already voted in the lovely state of Oh-re-guhn.
 
It wasn't the Obama campaign's fault, a lot of the US seemed to just believe that it was his fault cause the GOP hacks kept saying so. It's not easy to win re-election in this kind of economy, no matter how dickish your opponents are, but the Obama campaign seem to have been so successful at painting Romney as a corporate whore in Ohio (well, he is one but anyway) that it's completely defied demographic tendencies and seems to be sticking with him.
 
Red Dreams said:
Just heard that for Romney to win NC he will have to turn out 65% of the remaining votes there.
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Isn't that pretty doable though, given that many Democrats will have already voted?

I can't seem to get hold of the maths of early voting.

Nucks said:
Agreed. It shows how completely incompetent Obama's campaign has been to give Romney even a sniff. The fact that the Republican campaign has been able to shunt so much of Bush Jr's cockup onto Obama is baffling.

That or the average voter in America is semi-retarded.

I'm not sure which is more disconcerting ;p

I've already voted in the lovely state of Oh-re-guhn.
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I think Obama's campaign has been almost flawless. They decided to go defensive, which is reasonable since it was theirs to lose. They made a gamble putting resources into early advertising to solidify Romney's image as a heartless plutocrat (though if they had advance knowledge of the 47% video it was less of a gamble). They seem to have targeted the right states.

The only feck-up was debate 1. There the fault largely lies with O, though the campaign should have anticipated that Mitt would finally etch-a-sketch.

Look, from the beginning the political scientists said the economic conditions and factors like incumbency pointed to a close race in which Obama had a small advantage. That seems to be how it's panned out. Romney has been somewhat weaker than expected, so maybe it's reasonable to say the Obama campaign has failed to press home its advantage as much as it might have. But incompetent?

If you're talking about Democratic messaging from 08 to 10 though, then I agree. That's when it should have been branded in the public imagination as the Republican Recession, with Obama as firefighter-in-chief. I can't understand why they let that get away in the name of looking bipartisan. But by the time of the campaign it was pretty much unsalvageable (short of having Bill Clinton speak everywhere every day).
 
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