US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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Jaz said:
My current Ev guess:

303 for Obama
235 Romney

Popular vote too close to call..
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My guess is that by midnight on the 6th/7th, at least one and maybe up to three states will be too close to call. That one would probably be Florida, but the likes of Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire may be in the mix as well. Even so, Obama would have already eclipsed the 270 mark by holding serve in all of the remaining swings (OH, NV, IA, WI, MI, PA). With one or more states being within .5%, automatic recounts will be triggered and will leave those states hanging in the balance. The GOP will make a massive fuss about irregularities with voting machines, dead people voting etc, and there will probably be some litigation - but in the end, with Obama already having eclipsed 270, it won't really matter. He will probably squeak out wins in CO and VA, and probably miss out on Florida by a hair. 303-235 for me as well.
 
Raoul said:
My guess is that by midnight on the 6th/7th, at least one and maybe up to three states will be too close to call. That one would probably be Florida, but the likes of Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire may be in the mix as well. Even so, Obama would have already eclipsed the 270 mark by holding serve in all of the remaining swings (OH, NV, IA, WI, MI, PA). With one or more states being within .5%, automatic recounts will be triggered and will leave those states hanging in the balance. The GOP will make a massive fuss about irregularities with voting machines, dead people voting etc, and there will probably be some litigation - but in the end, with Obama already having eclipsed 270, it won't really matter. He will probably squeak out wins in CO and VA, and probably miss out on Florida by a hair. 303-235 for me as well.
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I think you will be right. Though I think Florida will not go to a recount.

The point is, Ohio is in the bag for Obama, and a miracle is needed for Romney to make up the EV's elsewhere.
 
If Romney gets in we are doomed I tell ya, freakin doomed!
 
I'm gonna be positive like RD for once and go 332 Obama.
 
Raoul said:
By that logic, you could attack most middle aged American Christians given that many of their denominations participated in exclusionary practices at one point or another from the 40s to the 70s. Those were the socio-cultural norms in America at the time, and it makes little sense to make it an issue 35 years later. Even today, church continues to be the most segregated institution in America.
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no. by that logic you could question any of those americans if they were running for the highest office in the land. nobody is saying america was a historically righteous place in racial terms. Romney wants to be president of a country that has a large percentage of non caucasians. those people at least have a right to know if they are voting for a man who defends the beliefs he held in those days. Romney has not commented on it. he and his people continually say its not fair to question him on his religion. well when your religion has a recent history of racial segregation and at a time when you freely associated with those views then defend it/explain it or denounce it.
 
Legend16 said:
no by that logic you could question any of those americans if they were running for the highest office in the land. nobody is saying america was a historically righteous place in racial terms. Romney wants to be president of a country that has a large percentage of non caucasians. those people at least have a right to know if they are voting for a man who defends the beliefs he held in those days. Romney has not commented on it. he and his people continually say its not fair to question him on his religion. well when your religion has a recent history of racial segregation and at a time when you freely associated with those views then defend it/explain it or denounce it.
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Its obviously not an issue to the non Caucasians who aren't voting for him anyway. If there was any legitimacy to that line of questioning, you can bet the Dems would be all over it. Its just not on anyone's radar, and rightfully so, given the other problems the country is facing. Obama is also intelligent enough to know that attacking someone's religion is a non-starter in US political discourse.
 
This is a brilliant, swift history of the presidential TV ads that have aired in the last 60 years of US presidential elections:

 
Raoul said:
Its obviously not an issue to the non Caucasians who aren't voting for him anyway. If there was any legitimacy to that line of questioning, you can bet the Dems would be all over it. Its just not on anyone's radar, and rightfully so, given the other problems the country is facing. Obama is also intelligent enough to know that attacking someone's religion is a non-starter in US political discourse.
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of course obama wont attack romneys religion. that sort of attack is usually the domain of the right and their associated loonies at FOX. but the many conversations Ive had with african american friends leave me in no doubt that they believe romney belongs to a church with dubious attitudes to non whites. they are offended by the notion that they carry the mark of evil through their skin colour as is still the belief held by many mormons. just because they probably wouldnt be voting for him anyway doesnt make his beliefs on the issue any less questionable.
 
Red Dreams said:
my big hope is Obama gets some progressive Supreme Court judges in which will then turn back all these lunatic right wing laws like Citizens United.

Reid will have his Senate...btw he has been a tough Mutha.
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Well they will only be able to turn back what gets to the Supreme Court remember. So what you need to hope for is a change in SC justices and that some people challenge these laws in court and the cases reach the SC.
 
Legend16 said:
of course obama wont attack romneys religion. that sort of attack is usually the domain of the right and their associated loonies at FOX. but the many conversations Ive had with african american friends leave me in no doubt that they believe romney belongs to a church with dubious attitudes to non whites. they are offended by the notion that they carry the mark of evil through their skin colour as is still the belief held by many mormons. just because they probably wouldnt be voting for him anyway doesnt make his beliefs on the issue any less questionable.
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There are plenty of issues to question the LDS church on, race is certainly one of them - but given that most people aren't interested in Romney's religion, it was never going to get much attention in light of all of the other issues that were in play - mainly the economy. Also, he went through a round if similar questions when he ran in 07/08 and basically answered it to the point where badgering him on it wouldn't be productive.

 
Raoul said:
There are plenty of issues to question the LDS church on, race is certainly one of them - but given that most people aren't interested in Romney's religion, it was never going to get much attention in light of all of the other issues that were in play - mainly the economy. Also, he went through a round if similar questions when he ran in 07/08 and basically answered it to the point where badgering him on it wouldn't be productive.

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there are. I agree. my own personal view is that the small amount of research Ive done into Mormonism leaves me astonished that the American people can take anyone who believes in it seriously. some of its teaching are beyond ludicrous and seem more in line with a cult like scientology. it may not have been a larger issue this time around, but that said, I do know quite a few americans who are suspicious of Romneys beliefs.
 
Plechazunga said:
At 100% I'd be more or less sanguine.

ALmost all of 538's remaining Romney probability of 15% is the chance of large-scale statistical bias in the polls. It's interesting that Wang makes no allowance for that.
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I think Wang's said that past years haven't shown any such bias at state level so he doesn't bother to factor in that uncertainty (he occasionally digs at Silver for stuff like that). Interesting to know that that's where the big difference between the two is now though.
 
Red Dreams said:
my big hope is Obama gets some progressive Supreme Court judges in which will then turn back all these lunatic right wing laws like Citizens United.

Reid will have his Senate...btw he has been a tough Mutha.
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I bet Scalia doesn't retire till there's a Repub Prez, or at least wait till 2016. Kennedy hopefully does decide to go soon. Ginsburg and Breyer as well, will be retiring. Likely Obama gets three picks and whoever wins in 2016 gets one. Still would be enough to get a 5-4. Winning in 2016 would make it 6-3 for a very long time.
 
MrMarcello said:
Romney wept my ass (about blacks being allowed into the Mormon church).
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Can't you imagine it ? He's driving his posh convertible to Law School in 1978, hears the announcement on the radio that the LDS church is allowing blacks in, and pulls over and starts weeping. What an etcha sketch tosser he is.
 
Legend16 said:
there are. I agree. my own personal view is that the small amount of research Ive done into Mormonism leaves me astonished that the American people can take anyone who believes in it seriously. some of its teaching are beyond ludicrous and seem more in line with a cult like scientology. it may not have been a larger issue this time around, but that said, I do know quite a few americans who are suspicious of Romneys beliefs.
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Mormonism is weird to all the rest of us. On the other hand, it is gaining ground in the US. American attitudes to religion are hard to understand.
 
The wonderful thing about Mormonism is that it makes it incredibly difficult for followers of the mainstream religions to espouse that religion should automatically command an immunity from mockery and ridicule. Even somebody who believes in the Virgin Birth can have a good laugh at some of the Mormon beliefs.
 
There are villages in the Philipinnes that have been converted to Mormons over a few generations. Even here in Canada the Mormon church grows, I dont always understand it
 
Wonder how many Mormons there are in France now after Mitt's missionary adventures...
 
radd said:
I bet Scalia doesn't retire till there's a Repub Prez, or at least wait till 2016. Kennedy hopefully does decide to go soon. Ginsburg and Breyer as well, will be retiring. Likely Obama gets three picks and whoever wins in 2016 gets one. Still would be enough to get a 5-4. Winning in 2016 would make it 6-3 for a very long time.
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Scalia is not stupid. He can see the writing on the wall. He will want to retire and enjoy all the kickbacks he got form the Republican backers before he kicks it.

This was the last chance for the GOP to get 'their guy' in. VA/FL/CO/NC will go for Democrats easily enough in 2016. AZ will be like CO is this year.
 
Maplered said:
There are villages in the Philipinnes that have been converted to Mormons over a few generations. Even here in Canada the Mormon church grows, I dont always understand it
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During my first year of university (in England), a group of Mormons would hang around the student accommodation to hand out their business cards/literature. They were 'missionaries' from all over... Peru, the Philippines, Nigeria..you name it. It was really strange as I don't know a single Mormon. They are obviously committed.
 
YouGov have a ton of new state polls out -

Obama: New Hampshire +4, Nevada +4, Wisconsin +4, Ohio +3, Virginia +2, Iowa up 1, Colorado up 1

Romney: North Carolina +2, Florida up 1.
 
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