Dems have 2500 lawyers lined up in Ohio to make challenges to any attempts at voter suppression, 600 in Cuyahoga County alone.
US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012
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Wow, 538's adjusted lead in NV is 3.8, so the current lead is 80% bigger. Is that normal for early voting?
Is that registered or likely lawyers?
And the left should feed that delusion. "Oh yes, thank god the Repubs didn't run a REAL conservative, let's hope they never do!"
Obama already has won NV and IA.
Yeah the Dems will likely lose the election day vote, but since the early vote turnout is so huge (70%+ of overall) it won't make much of a dent. Read this guy - http://ralstonreports.com/blog/demo...lead-clark-near-dead-heat-washoe#.UJXH0cUxo9U - he's pretty much the ITK of Nevada politics.
It's a dangerous game. Whatever happens on Tuesday, this election has shown that a party can become exceptionally extreme, even pretty openly try to tank the economy for party political gain, and still be competitive. If the GOP stay this way, you might win ten elections but at some point the perfect storm will materialise and you'll have the nutters in charge.
demographics.
I'm with Plech here. If you look at candidate Romney, he really should be unelectable (even in the US). The far-right propaganda machine is extremely effective.
Roughly half the country is Repub, and the economy's not great. It's not that far-fetched.
This is exactly what I'm talking about. First of all, why give a feck about who is a Republican and who is a Democrat? Second, yeah, the economy is not great. Why is that? On average, it takes 10 years to recover from a major economic crisis. Thanks to the policies enacted by Obama the US is on course to recover sooner than that.
Romney seems to be completely without principles, and willing to say whatever it takes to become President. He cares about winning - nothing else. That's why he should be unelectable; he's an asshole and doesn't have a clue.
I believe we have a winner for Most Ridiculous Ad of 2012.
I've been seeing this ad run in Georgia the last week. This Anderson fella sounds like he's straight out of Dukes of Hazzard or somewhat. As hick as they come.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Govern...hn-Barrow-D-and-Obama-A-Bromance-For-The-Ages
I've been seeing this ad run in Georgia the last week. This Anderson fella sounds like he's straight out of Dukes of Hazzard or somewhat. As hick as they come.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Govern...hn-Barrow-D-and-Obama-A-Bromance-For-The-Ages
As they say, Americans are conservative in the abstract and liberal in the specific. You can't apply reasoned thinking to it, it is what is.
For the hicks and bible-thumpers, ABO is all that matters. For the more sophisticated, anything said during a campaign is largely meaningless, and Romney's not very convincing as a 'severe conservative.' All they care about anyway, are lower taxes and less regulation. That's something he certainly has credibility on.
Redcafe loves this word
How would one repel Obamacare?
Why can I easily imagine hearing him muttering "fags" and "spicks" and other derogatory terms?
Why can I easily imagine hearing him muttering "fags" and "spicks" and other derogatory terms?
don't count out NC
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/...h-Sporadic-Unlikely-and-New-Registrant-Voters
If NC goes for Obama, we can all sleep early...not that I would be doing that cause I will be too busy watching them vomit their guts out on Fox
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/...h-Sporadic-Unlikely-and-New-Registrant-Voters
If NC goes for Obama, we can all sleep early...not that I would be doing that cause I will be too busy watching them vomit their guts out on Fox
I'm predicting a 312-226 win for Obama. IMO, Romney will win Florida and Iowa by a narrow margin.
Some interesting polls from PA: Saying it's a Tie.. Tribune-Review/Susquehanna
But +6 Obama PPP(D)
Wisconsin +3 PDD(D) - this is in play I guess.
NH tie UNH
But +6 Obama PPP(D)
Wisconsin +3 PDD(D) - this is in play I guess.
NH tie UNH
Silver's latest post on 538 is his best yet. Anyone who thinks this race is a "toss up" is insane.
From that, it looks like Ohio could be lost for Romney on early voting. All of those reporting high absentee/early voting are those huge urban counties which voted massively for Obama in 2008.
The advantage to overcome is huge. If the counties voted in the same way as they voted before, we can work out how many voted Romney needs to makeup on election day. It's probably in excess of 100k's.
The advantage to overcome is huge. If the counties voted in the same way as they voted before, we can work out how many voted Romney needs to makeup on election day. It's probably in excess of 100k's.
I'm sure the boys at Diebold can manage it.
Is this true?
Is this true?
they had a belief that dark skinned people were so because they had been punished for taking the wrong side (or possibly not taking sides) in some fantasy religious battle between good and evil or something. as a result only whites were allowed take even the most junior positions in the mormon church. so yeah that classes as discriminating against people on the basis of their skin colour
Obama's ticked down a notch on the Princeton model, so there must be some good polls for Romney.
The predictions are down to 98.2/99.9%. I'm bricking it.
The predictions are down to 98.2/99.9%. I'm bricking it.
It's hard to criticize Romney on Mormonism given that the US was more or less an Apartheid state just a couple of decades before the LDS mob allowed blacks into their church.
That first PA one had Romney at +4 last time, not entirely reliable. Wisconsin's about as safe as any battleground for Obama, and those UNH polls seem ridiculous bouncy (had Obama +9 a couple of weeks back).
Michigan: *** Romney Baydoun/Foster (D)
its really not. he was at the very least a member of/supporter of a church advocating that ideology during his adult decision making lifetime. that deserves some criticism and questioning. what america was a couple of decades before that doesnt matter. no one from that era is running for president. if they were they would surely be expected to explain their position during that time
don't count out NC
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/...h-Sporadic-Unlikely-and-New-Registrant-Voters
If NC goes for Obama, we can all sleep early...not that I would be doing that cause I will be too busy watching them vomit their guts out on Fox
FNC will be too busy crying about voter fraud and spreading more propaganda and misinformation. I really hope they have the entire circus of personalities on during the election night. Would love to see how Hannity, O'Reilly, Malkin, the Fox and Friends crew, and ilk react to the reality of four more years of the evil, black, atheist, socialist, Muslim communist.
I will have my popcorn ready.
NC won't go to Obama. Republicans did well in the state for early voting, and will be more than enough to win.
Well, they did better than last time, when they were shit. Obama's getting out newly registered and sporadic voters it seems which is actually what matters in the early voting. I'd still say it goes Romney but it's not a done deal.
Doesnt take much for you to brick it does it Plech?
At 100% I'd be more or less sanguine.
ALmost all of 538's remaining Romney probability of 15% is the chance of large-scale statistical bias in the polls. It's interesting that Wang makes no allowance for that.
popcorn prices will be going up for sure.
sticking with 332 but worth a punt for 347.
By that logic, you could attack most middle aged American Christians given that many of their denominations participated in exclusionary practices at one point or another from the 40s to the 70s. Those were the socio-cultural norms in America at the time, and it makes little sense to make it an issue 35 years later. Even today, church continues to be the most segregated institution in America.
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