US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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I went and had a look at the BBC live commentary that I watched at the time, looks like you were right about calling projections well in advance of the west coast polls closing, Pennsylvania got called about 3 hours before (and will probably be a good barometer to check this time round too). Ohio was surprisingly early, no doubt closer this year though. North Carolina was also way later than Virginia by the looks of it.

You lie, those never happened!

That's the spirit!
 
thats the way I remember it. I remember that Virginia came in much later.

forget the polls at this stage mate...they are really pointless.

Its all ground game.

FL/VA/NC are all close... OH is Obama's but Romney cannot give up on it.. he just has to try..lie whatever. Obama just has a much superior GOTV...and also there are simply more registered Democratic voters in all these states.

There have been more Dem registered in most states for a couple of election cycles. So it's not a hugely important factor.

Obama has a better GOTV, however, in terms of early voting, Romney is greatly improved McCain, in all states. It might make a difference in NC, Va, Ohio and Colorado. Also in Florida, the GOP have a better absentee voting system than most other states.
 
There have been more Dem registered in most states for a couple of election cycles. So it's not a hugely important factor.

Obama has a better GOTV, however, in terms of early voting, Romney is greatly improved McCain, in all states. It might make a difference in NC, Va, Ohio and Colorado. Also in Florida, the GOP have a better absentee voting system than most other states.

Besides better GOTV, better micro-targeting techniques according to this article: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...ave_a_massive_advantage_in_targeting_and.html
 
The point of getting out the vote is to reduce the gap in enthusiasm which mjs always tells us about. Fairly pointless putting effort into getting people into polling booths that would vote anyway.
 
There have been more Dem registered in most states for a couple of election cycles. So it's not a hugely important factor.

Obama has a better GOTV, however, in terms of early voting, Romney is greatly improved McCain, in all states. It might make a difference in NC, Va, Ohio and Colorado. Also in Florida, the GOP have a better absentee voting system than most other states.

More registered voters is definitely an important factor. math.

Its simply turnout.

Romney has a better GOTV than McCain..but it is not better than Obama.

The fact is Obama's path to 270 is much easier.

That is why he is a heavy favourite to be re elected.
 
Gov. Christie: Obama Deserves ‘Great Credit’ For Storm Response

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.c...obama-deserves-great-credit-for-storm?ref=fpb

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said that President Obama deserves "great credit" for his response to Hurricane Sandy, during an appearance on "CBS This Morning" Tuesday. He said he had spoken to the president three times, including when Obama called him at midnight.

"I can't thank the president enough for that," Christie said, referring to the major disaster declaration Obama signed for New Jersey, expediting federal aid to the state. "Cooperation from the president of the United States has been outstanding. He deserves great credit."

Christie said there are currently 2.4 million households in New Jersey without power.



Game over....
 
Christie has a better chance of the presidency if Obama wins this one than if Romney does. We saw that at play in his RNC speech too.

that is correct. But though I disagree with everything he stands for, you do now and then see a 'real person' come out of that fat gut.

He did not come across as just a politician with his concern for people going through hell in his state...and I think he was grateful for the quick reponse from the President.
 
Soledad O'Brien on CNN asked the Governor of Delaware, a Democrat, about Romney's idea that states could take over disaster relief more efficiently than FEMA, and he blasted him, said it was a ridiculous idea. Funnily enough, when she was interviewing Christie just minutes later, that question didn't seem to come up.
 
from a fox news link on the storm:

"Obama scrapped his campaign events for Monday and Tuesday to stay at the White House to oversee the government's response to the superstorm. Romney was going ahead with a planned event in Ohio on Tuesday, but his campaign said its focus would be on storm relief."

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2012...thout-power-in-sandy-aftermath/#ixzz2An73tNic


wonder how they'll manage to focus on storm relief while bashing Obama?
 
Here's an example from yesterday:

“We’re counting on Ohio. I know the people of the Atlantic Coast are counting on Ohio and the rest of our states,” he said, after urging them to donate to the American Red Cross or another relief agency. “But I also think the people of the entire nation are counting on Ohio. Because my guess is – my guess is that if Ohio votes me in as president, I’ll be the next president of the United States.”

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-romney-hurricane-sandy-ohio-20121029,0,3507944.story
 
Christie is beyond fat and I don't see voters selecting him. I'm also not quite sure he'll get past the RNC primaries. Especailly if they have a TP favorite up there, like Rubio.
 
Apparently his "relief event" in Ohio begins with a Romney bio video, saying how good a leader he is.
 


This is getting a lot of airplay. Obama Team has stayed out of it.


Because they know folks in the press will do that job:

Romney Vetoed Flood Control Money for City that Later Flooded

As Governor, Mitt Romney Slow to Respond to Disaster

And today's NYT editorial: A Big Storm Requires Big Government

It’s an absurd notion, but it’s fully in line with decades of Republican resistance to federal emergency planning. FEMA, created by President Jimmy Carter, was elevated to cabinet rank in the Bill Clinton administration, but was then demoted by President George W. Bush, who neglected it, subsumed it into the Department of Homeland Security, and placed it in the control of political hacks. The disaster of Hurricane Katrina was just waiting to happen. [...]

Over the last two years, Congressional Republicans have forced a 43 percent reduction in the primary FEMA grants that pay for disaster preparedness. Representatives Paul Ryan, Eric Cantor and other House Republicans have repeatedly tried to refuse FEMA’s budget requests when disasters are more expensive than predicted, or have demanded that other valuable programs be cut to pay for them. [...]
 
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Victory! Uh, also relief, that sort of thing.
 
How To Rig an Election

Cover Story of Harper's Magazine, November 2012

Can't say I found it too impressive. The author is not a Harper's staff writer, but an election integrity activist. All of her assertions about Ohio 2004 are rehashed from articles by Christopher Hitchens and RFK, Jr. which were mostly debunked by Farhad Manjoo (at Salon at the time) and Mark Blumenthal (with regard to exit polling). Wikipedia also says the NYU prof she quotes is a 9/11 Truther.

That said, there are some disturbing details that are worth a read.

(Can't link to it, so I'm posting the full text here)


How to Rig an Election
By Victoria Collier, Harper's Magazine



It was a hot summer in 1932 when Louisiana senator Huey "Kingfish" Long arranged to rig the vote on a number of amendments to his state's constitution that would be advantageous to his financial interests. Long was no stranger to rigged votes. This time around, however, the fix delivered by his machine was blatant and sloppy: his favored amendments won unanimously in sixteen New Orleans precincts and garnered identical vote totals in twenty-eight others.

Eugene Stanley, the incorruptible district attorney for Orleans Parish, presented evidence of fraud to a grand jury. Louisiana's attorney general, the less morally encumbered Gaston Porterie, stepped in to sabotage the case for Long. Nonetheless, two judges demanded a recount, at which point Governor O. K. Allen obliged Long by declaring martial law. Intimidated jurors found themselves sorting ballots under the supervision of National Guardsmen, who stood by to "protect" them with machine guns.

When this effort failed, another grand jury was convened. Their eventual finding of a massive conspiracy led to the indictment of 513 New Orleans election officials. Once again, Long used his famous powers of persuasion. At his behest, the Louisiana legislature modified the state's election law, giving ex post facto protection to the defendants. Election rigging, Long might have quipped, had become downright exhausting. But it worked.

From the earliest days of the republic, American politicians (and much of a cynical populace) saw vote rigging as a necessary evil. Since the opposition was assumed to be playing equally dirty, how could you avoid it? Most Americans would probably have confessed to a grudging admiration for New York City's Tammany Hall machine, which bought off judges, politicians, and ward captains, ensured the suppression of thousands of votes, and controlled Democratic Party nominations for more than a century.

By the beginning of the last century, however, sentiment had begun to shift. In 1915, the Supreme Court ruled that vote suppression could be federally prosecuted. In Terre Haute, Indiana, more than a hundred men had already been indicted for conspiring to fix the 1914 elections for mayor, sheriff, and circuit judge. The incumbent sheriff and judge went to jail for five years, and Mayor Donn M. Roberts spent six years in Leavenworth.

Roberts and his gang, declared the New York Times, had failed to grasp that "what is safe and even commendable one year may be dangerous and reprehensible the next." Almost overnight, commonplace corruption had become unacceptable, and vote rigging a serious crime. It took a strongman like Huey Long to remain an exception to the rule. But the overall trajectory seemed to point toward reform, accountability, and security. In 1920, the Nineteenth Amendment was passed, seventy-two years after Elizabeth Cady Stanton first demanded women's suffrage - the right that would, in Stanton's words, "secure all others." By the 1960s, Northern Democrats abandoned their Southern allies and pushed to end the mass suppression of black votes below the Mason–Dixon line. With the Voting Rights Act of 1965, many Americans began to believe that the bad old days of stolen elections might soon be behind us.

But as the twentieth century came to a close, a brave new world of election rigging emerged, on a scale that might have prompted Huey Long's stunned admiration. Tracing the sea changes in our electoral process, we see that two major events have paved the way for this lethal form of election manipulation: the mass adoption of computerized voting technology, and the outsourcing of our elections to a handful of corporations that operate in the shadows, with little oversight or accountability.

This privatization of our elections has occurred without public knowledge or consent, leading to one of the most dangerous and least understood crises in the history of American democracy. We have actually lost the ability to verify election results.

The use of computers in elections began around the time of the Voting Rights Act. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, the use of optical scanners to process paper ballots became widespread, usurping local hand counting. The media, anxious to get on the air with vote totals, hailed the faster and more efficient computerized count. In the twenty-first century, a new technology became ubiquitous: Direct Recording Electronic (DRE) voting, which permits touchscreen machines and does not require a paper trail. Old-school ballot-box fraud at its most egregious was localized and limited in scope. But new electronic voting systems allow insiders to rig elections on a statewide or even national scale. And whereas once you could catch the guilty parties in the act, and even dredge the ballot boxes out of the bayou, the virtual vote count can be manipulated in total secrecy. By means of proprietary, corporate-owned software, just one programmer could steal hundreds, thousands, potentially even millions of votes with the stroke of a key. It's the electoral equivalent of a drone strike.

Symbolically speaking, this era was inaugurated by Chuck Hagel, an unknown millionaire who ran for one of Nebraska's U.S. Senate seats in 1996. Initially Hagel trailed the popular Democratic governor, Ben Nelson, who had been elected in a landslide two years earlier. Three days before the election, however, a poll conducted by the Omaha World-Herald showed a dead heat, with 47 percent of respondents favoring each candidate. David Moore, who was then managing editor of the Gallup Poll, told the paper, "We can't predict the outcome."

Hagel's victory in the general election, invariably referred to as an "upset," handed the seat to the G.O.P. for the first time in eighteen years. Hagel trounced Nelson by fifteen points. Even for those who had factored in the governor's deteriorating numbers and a last-minute barrage of negative ads, this divergence from pre-election polling was enough to raise eyebrows across the nation.

Few Americans knew that until shortly before the election, Hagel had been chairman of the company whose computerized voting machines would soon count his own votes: Election Systems & Software (then called American Information Systems). Hagel stepped down from his post just two weeks before announcing his candidacy. Yet he retained millions of dollars in stock in the McCarthy Group, which owned ES&S. And Michael McCarthy, the parent company's founder, was Hagel's campaign treasurer.

Whether Hagel's relationship to ES&S ensured his victory is open to speculation. But the surprising scale of his win awakened a new fear among voting-rights activists and raised a disturbing question: Who controls the new technology of Election Night?

"Why would someone who owns a voting-machine company want to run for office?" asked Charlie Matulka, a Democrat who contested Hagel's Senate seat in 2002. Speaking at a press conference shortly before the election, he added: "Is this the fox guarding the henhouse?" A construction worker with limited funding and name recognition, Matulka was obviously a less formidable competitor than Nelson. Still, Hagel won an astonishing 83 percent of the vote - among the largest margins of victory in any statewide race in Nebraska's history. And with nearly 400,000 registered Democrats on the rolls, Matulka managed to scrape up only 70,290 votes.

Hagel had never actually disclosed his financial ties to ES&S, and Matulka requested an investigation by the Senate Ethics Committee. His request was rejected. Equally futile was his call for a hand count of the ballots, since a state law specified that recounts had to be conducted using the very same "vote-counting device" that was used to begin with - in this case, the ES&S optical scanners.

Meanwhile, the new millennium, far from delivering a democratic promised land, presented Americans with the debacle of the 2000 presidential election, whose fate hung absurdly on "hanging chads" - the little pieces of punched-out ballot so contentiously examined during the monthlong recount. Few Americans knew (and many still do not know) that a faulty computer memory card triggered this fiasco. Late on Election Night, Al Gore's total in Volusia County, Florida, suddenly dropped when one precinct reported 16,000 negative votes. Fox News was immediately prompted by Florida governor Jeb Bush to call the election for his brother. On his way to a 3 a.m. public concession, Gore changed course when a campaign staffer discovered that he was actually ahead in Volusia County by 13,000 votes.

But the damage was done. Gore was cast as a sore loser in a hostile media environment. His effort to obtain a recount was described by Sean Hannity on Fox News as an attempt to "steal the election." Meanwhile, George W. Bush invoked his duty to get on with the business of running the country. The rest, as they say, is history.

We are now in the midst of yet another election season. And as November 6 approaches, only one thing is certain: American voters will have no ability to know with certainty who wins any given race, from dogcatcher to president. Nor will we know the true results of ballot initiatives and referenda affecting some of the most vital issues of our day, including fracking, abortion, gay marriage, GMO-food labeling, and electoral reform itself. Our faith-based elections are the result of a new Dark Age in American democracy, brought on, paradoxically, by techological progress.

The spread of computerized voting has carried with it an enormous potential for electronic skulduggery. In 2003, Bev Harris, a citizen sleuth and the author of Black Box Voting: Ballot Tampering in the 21st Century, made a shocking and game-changing discovery: Diebold, then one of the primary manufacturers of voting machines, had left the 40,000 files that made up its Global Election Management System (GEMS) on a publicly accessible website, entirely unprotected. Diebold was never able to explain how its proprietary tabulation program ended up in such an exposed position. Harris downloaded the files, and programmers worldwide pounced, probing the code for weaknesses. "The wall of secrecy," said Harris, "began to crumble."

GEMS turned out to be a vote rigger's dream. According to Harris's analysis, it could be hacked, remotely or on-site, using any off-the-shelf version of Microsoft Access, and password protection was missing for supervisor functions. Not only could multiple users gain access to the system after only one had logged in, but unencrypted audit logs allowed any trace of vote rigging to be wiped from the record.

The public unmasking of GEMS by an average citizen (who was not a programmer herself) served as a belated wake-up call to the world's leading computer-security experts, who finally turned their attention to America's most widely used voting systems. Damning reports have since been issued by researchers from Johns Hopkins, Princeton, Rice, and Stanford Universities, the Brennan Center for Justice, and the Government Accountability Office (none of them institutions hospitable to "tinfoil hat" conspiracy theorists). Experts describe appalling security flaws, from the potential for system-wide vote-rigging viruses to the use of cheap, easily replicated keys - the same kind used on jukeboxes and hotel minibars - to open the machines themselves. In 2005, the nonpartisan Commission on Federal Election Reform, chaired by Jimmy Carter and James Baker, stated unequivocally that the greatest threats to secure voting are insiders with direct access to the machines: "There is no reason to trust insiders in the election industry any more than in other industries."

As recently as September 2011, a team at the U.S. Department of Energy's Argonne National Laboratory hacked into one of Diebold's old Accuvote touchscreen systems. Their report asserted that anyone with $26 in parts and an eighth-grade science education would be able to manipulate the outcome of an election. "This is a national security issue," wrote the Argonne team leader, Roger Johnston, using the sort of language that would normally set off alarm bells in our security-obsessed culture. Yet his warning has gone unheeded, and the Accuvote-TSX, now manufactured by ES&S, will be used in twenty states by more than 26 million voters in the 2012 general election.

Johnston's group also breached a system made by another industry giant, Sequoia, using the same "man in the middle" hack - a tiny wireless component that is inserted between the display screen and the main circuit board - which requires no knowledge of the actual voting software. The Sequoia machine will be used in four states by nearly 9 million voters in 2012.

Why did a physicist choose to hack into voting machines? "This was basically a weekend project," Johnston told me, expressing his amazement at the meager funding available to examine America's voting systems. "We did it because a lot of people looking at the machines are cybersecurity experts and programmers - and when you have a hammer, everything looks like a nail. They were largely looking at sophisticated, cyber-based attacks. But there are simple physical attacks, as we proved, that are easier to do and harder to prevent."
 
Climate change now front and centre as an issue.....another one that Romney is on the wrong side of! Currently that is....I'm sure his position will alter soon enough.
 
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