US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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niMic said:
You essentially told us how you, probably not even an amateur pollster, reworked the work of a professional, experienced pollster to take into account the most obvious thing in polling. And then how you helpfully decided to ignore half the sources.
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The RCP average is useful but they have the potential to create inaccurate swings. *They simply take the nine polls, add up the plus number for both candidates, then subtract A-B, and divide the difference by nine. Right now the percentage difference is 2%/9, giving Obama a 0.2% lead. So what if the next poll is of 3 people all voting Romney, so he gets 100%. All of a sudden he has a 10% lead on the RCP average.

Better to do your poll of polls and at least factor in sample size and MoE.


*or they just add the percentage up and divide by 9. Same thing and same potential for inaccuracy.
 
mjs020294 said:
The RCP average is useful but they have the potential to create inaccurate swings. *They simply take the nine polls, add up the plus number for both candidates, then subtract A-B, and divide the difference by nine. Right now the percentage difference is 2%/9, giving Obama a 0.2% lead. So what if the next poll is of 3 people all voting Romney, so he gets 100%. All of a sudden he has a 10% lead on the RCP average.

Better to do your poll of polls and at least factor in sample size and MoE.


*or they just add the percentage up and divide by 9. Same thing and same potential for inaccuracy.
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It's not possible to include a poll of 3 people in the calculations, because it's statistically invalid. You may have different polls with different sample sizes, but they all have to be large enough to be statistically valid to be included in the calculations.
 
Danny1982 said:
It's not possible to include a poll of 3 people in the calculations, because it's statistically invalid. You may have different polls with different sample sizes, but they all have to be large enough to be statistically valid to be included in the calculations.
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It was an extreme scenario to highlight the flaw in the RCP average. They have taken all the polls with a MoE's of 3% and added another potential 1-2% MoE. Hopefully everything is accurate or the MoE is in Obama's favor.
 
I've just been reading that there is to be a live debate for third party candidates held on the 23rd, although no US network appears to have been willing to take it up apparently [a bit sad that] and al-Jazeera have stepped in to fill the breech. It will be moderated by Larry King.
 
DemocracyNow have already been doing quite a few third party debates. Think I posted one earlier in this thread.
 
PPP Poll: IA Obama 49 Romney 48 ..same poll had the reverse a couple of days ago.

PPP Poll : FL Romney 48 Obama 47 Romney up 1. same result by this pollster last time too.

Looking at early voting, Obama has IA won. WI will remain Blue too.

Looking at the 3 western states , NV/NM looks cert Obama. CO Nate Silver has Obama as marginal favourite. As he has NH also going for Obama.

Don't think Romney will flip Ohio.

this will give Obama 303.

FL: simply a GOTV effort which Team Obama is doing great.
NC: They are registering and voting same day. The news from there is there many thousands of new voters Democrats are registering and voting...well ahead of the GOP and are ahead in Early voting. These new registrations are not in the data for polling companies.
VA: Last PPP poll with Obama ahead by 2 is not included with the RCP average which has this as a tie. But Obama GOTV efforts again may make the difference.

At the least I see Obama at 303 without these last 3 states mentioned.
 
Waltraute said:
Why the anger, Saliph?

Of course I didn't mean to imply he was a 'fecking loser'. I really, really appreciated him as a journalist, but I just don't think he did enough academically to count him as an intellectual. Silly, throwaway comment from me, anyway. Sorry.
And sorry for bringing the thread off topic.
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:lol: I was just kidding
 
The key test will be if the Obama campaign can get the vote out as much as Romney's increase in independents in the battleground states from 2008.

Tough call, but Ohio will be close.
 
A pretty little girl
named Suzy was standing on the sidewalk in front of her home. Next to
her was a basket containing a number of tiny creatures; in her hand
was a sign announcingFREE KITTENS.



Suddenly a line of big
black cars pulled up beside her. Out of the lead car stepped a tall,
grinning man.

"Hi there little girl, I'm Mitt Romney.
What do you have in the basket?" he asked.

"Kittens," little Suzy said.

"How old are they?" asked Romney.

Suzy replied, "They're so young, their eyes aren't even open
yet."

"And what kind of kittens are they?"

"Republicans," answered Suzy with a smile.

Romney was delighted. As soon as he returned to his car, he called his PR
chief and told him about the little girl and the kittens.
Cameras and audio equipment were quickly set up, then Romney got
out of his limo and walked over to little Suzy.

"Hello, again," he said, "I'd love it if you would tell
all my friends out there what kind of kittens you're giving
away."

"Yes sir," Suzy said. "They're Democrats."

Taken by surprise, the Romney stammered, "But...but...yesterday,
you told me they were REPUBLICANS."

Little Suzy smiled and said, "I know.

But today, they have their eyes open."
 
That's such a stupid joke, and has almost zero actual impact or effect given it can be applied to basically anything. I'd delete it, and yourself Anver.
 
I thought it was OK.

But I would have preferred it if the box hadnt been kittens, but rats. And the bit about the eyes, that should go, it should instead be lethal disease-giving bacteria crawling all over them. And then they should stay as Republicans. And the little girl, that is a bit too much of a cliche. So it should be some small-government tea party muppet. And a priest, people with religious beliefs are funny. A tea-party priest, holding a box of rats carrying deadly diseases, and Romney says, what kind of rats are those? And the priest says, they are Republicans sir, you can count on our vote. And then the rates eat their way out of the bottom of the box and scuttle off down the street, as the two of them stand there, watching them go.

It might need a little more work.
 
Anver you've effectively voided the US election, nobody even cares anymore. Everyone in the USA has agreed to move to Mexico and pretend it all never happened.
 
Helder-Carvalho said:
is it possible the national polls are skewed by the fact that romney support in the red states shot up since the first debate?
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I am pretty sure they poll all States, and track independents and swing voters pretty strongly.

Romney established himself as a viable POTUS in the first debate in the eyes of many. Remember the only voters that really matter are the 10% in the middle and he helped himself with that group.
 
@ Helder-Cavalho

Nah, he's definitely made gains in Florida, Virginia and Colorado and possibly in the Mid-West. Some are suggesting that a good chunk of that is from the 'waittress moms' - white, blue-collar women who were bombarded all summer with negative ads from the Obama campaign, especially during day-time television - Dr.Phil and the like. But as things stand (read: Ohio), Obama wins. Ground game, ground game, ground game...
 
mjs020294 said:
I am pretty sure they poll all States, and track independents and swing voters pretty strongly.

Romney established himself as a viable POTUS in the first debate in the eyes of many. Remember the only voters that really matter are the 10% in the middle and he helped himself with that group.
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So the sample size should be in the tens of thousands in order to be an aproximate of the truth, how can a sample size of 5/6000 can represent 250 million votters? Even in tiny Portugal with 8 million voters they have sample sizes of 1500/2000 voters. An example, imagine that in a sample size of 5000, 200 are aloted to Texas, of those about half are from the big cities (Dallas, Houston, Austin) cities that are democratic strongholds, now we have a poll that gives about 50% of the texan votes to Democrats.
 
Yup, the more registered voters they can turn into actual voters, the better the chances get for them. Seems to be going well in Ohio, Nevada and Iowa at any rate. If they can get Colorado, Wisconsin and New Hampshire in that category too, then Ohio wouldn't even be necessary.

Helder-Carvalho said:
So the sample size should be in the tens of thousands in order to be an aproximate of the truth, how can a sample size of 5/6000 can represent 250 million votters? Even in tiny Portugal with 8 million voters they have sample sizes of 1500/2000 voters. An example, imagine that in a sample size of 5000, 200 are aloted to Texas, of those about half are from the big cities (Dallas, Houston, Austin) cities that are democratic strongholds, now we have a poll that gives about 50% of the texan votes to Democrats.
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It's why you should pay more attention to the aggregates that the likes of 538 provide, they take all the raw data of the polls and fit it together to give a much bigger sample, in effect.
 
RCP has Obama up in all polls in Ohio. Even Rasmussen and Fox News polls.

That hopefully will be enough because without Ohio I don't see Romney winning.

Even so it shouldn't be this close and nervy. Think the Obama campaign has turned up the 'flip flopper' rhetoric a little too late. In that regard in 04 Rove and his guys did a great number on Kerry's credibility right from the get go.
 
I think they made the decision to go after him as a "severe conservative" after the primaries and he was still sticking true to that until relatively recently, but his predictable etch-a-sketch to Moderate Mitt caught them surprisingly flat-footed.
 
Red Dreams said:
Team Obama are very confident about teh ground game in all Swing States from reports.
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However, this is well down on 2008. There was a superb article somewhere (http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/331046/ohio-closer-you-think-josh-jordan) about the differences between 2008 and 2012 in Ohio. The article suggested that Romney is massively improved on Indies in Ohio, and Obama is behind in early voting compared to 2008. The article suggested it's going to be a lot closer than the polls are.

Rasmussen are saying Tie in Iowa, +4 Colorado
Quinnipac +5 Obama in Ohio.
Angus Reid: Tie is Ohio
PUR: *** Obama in Virginia
 
Ubik said:
That article seems to rely on the same "skewed party ID" argument that was debunked weeks ago. If people are IDing as Democrat in polls, there's not a lot you can argue about it.

Nate Cohn has a good general Ohio analysis here - http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate...you-need-know-about-obamas-lead-in-ohio-polls
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Indeed. But it's an interesting examination of Ohio specifically.

Gallup still has Romney +6, SurveyUSA +3, GWU/Battleground +2

Suffolk has Ohio tied on 47. It poll suggesting 20% have already voted.
 
Religious, far right-wing extremist "friend" on FB... downright baffling post. This is the nutty side of the GOP support base, which is probably a sizeable percentage. Scary.

"IT IS GETTING CLOSER. PRAYERS PEEPS PRAYERS. GODS WILL BE DONE AND I HOPE HIS WILL IS A ROMNEY WIN. I PRAY GOD GIVES THIS NATION A CHANCE TO BRING US BACK TO WHAT IT WAS FOUNDED UNDER. HIM. FAITH."
 
Lara Logan talking about al-Qaeda, Taliban and the war in Afghanistan. Very interesting stuff. She talks about how Afghanistan is not at all comparable to Vietnam, and Pakistan's role in the war, among other things. Plus, she's fit.

"Our way of life is under attack. And if you think that's government propaganda, if you think that's nonsense, if you think that's war-mongering - you're not listening to what the people who are fighting you say about this fight."

 
Well, if the Muslim fundamentalists had the means, they would certainly be a very large problem. Of course, if they had the means then most of them probably wouldn't be Muslim extremists any more.
 
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