Oh no disputing that, which is why the signals that the Romney camp send out on Iran must act as a further turn off, for they hint at future entanglements. Ones initiated by Mitt.
US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012
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Oh no disputing that, which is why the signals that the Romney camp send out on Iran must act as a further turn off, for they hint at future entanglements. Ones initiated by Mitt.
It all boils down to Ohio. If he holds on to it, its over. If he wins Ohio by 3-4 points, chances are he'll also carry Colorado and Virginia. Ohio's stature as a tipping point state is larger than ever now.
Yep. Getting rid of Bin Laden, and ending the Iraq and Afghan wars will resonate with a large swath of military families who are fatigued by a decade of deaths, injuries, and family separation after multiple deployments. Obama may even score some point by insinuating Romney wants to invade Iran and Syria. The foreign policy debate should be a good one.
Yup, and something I hadn't noticed before was that Romney has never led in the Ohio RCP average - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html. He's got within a point a couple of times, but that's it. Obviously that's not suggest he can't turn it over by the end, but it certainly isn't encouraging for him, particularly considering that it's supposed to lean slightly Republican.
PPP Poll has Obama up 2 in VA
Survey USA poll has Obama up by 1 in FL
Gravis Poll has Obama tied in Ohio
Survey USA poll has Obama up by 1 in FL
Gravis Poll has Obama tied in Ohio
Up in FL and tied in Ohio??
It's Gravis, tied means that Obama's up by about 3.
This is entertaining,
This is entertaining,
Gravis is a Republican Pollster. They have even had Romney up by 1 before.
they are running this ad again in the swing states.
Old advert, which if I remember correctly isn't actually 100% true. Those attack adverts have a negative effect. People that are likely to vote for GOP, or swing either way are pro-business and accept factories close.
well finally I was polled today.
Just two questions.
Who you voting for : Obama
Right track/wrong track: right right track (should have said in spite of Republicans being dickheads.)
Just two questions.
Who you voting for : Obama
Right track/wrong track: right right track (should have said in spite of Republicans being dickheads.)
I'm absolutely shocked that you're voting for Obama.
Do these polls mean anything? I mean really. Are there still that many people out there that haven't made a decision yet? We're like 2 weeks away. Polls are useless, at least at this point.
tbh its just GOTV at this point.
You blew that one. You should have said Romney. See that way when the polls trend higher for Romeny the Dems will get nervous and more will go out and vote on election day worried Obama might lose.
nah..the Dems are just so laid back no matter what the polls.
Just wish we were as disciplined as the teaparty
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
RCP Average : Obama positive. really a tie.
RCP Average : Obama positive. really a tie.
Why's Gallup so off?
SurveyUSA in florida obama ***
Very very interesting...4.1% MOE the worst of all the florida pollsters so far.
Very very interesting...4.1% MOE the worst of all the florida pollsters so far.
There have been 4 polls in New Jersey in the last week.
Why?
Why?
PPP Poll. Obama up by 1 in OH. But small sample and high MOE.
National polls are close now with Obama just up National average.
National polls are close now with Obama just up National average.
All these polls are within the margin of error. What good are they?
true. that is why the averaging of these polls is important.
having said that the gold standard polls like NBC/WSJ/Marist usually are pretty close.
In the end at this stage of the race, it really is about turnout.
having said that the gold standard polls like NBC/WSJ/Marist usually are pretty close.
In the end at this stage of the race, it really is about turnout.
Fully agree. The polls tightening will work to Obamas favor. More Dems will turn out now.
was reading a blog on NC and the turnout operations there. Democrats are very confident.
Their early voting started Oct 17th. But you can register and vote the same day. just great. We too can register and vote the same day here in Minnesota, but it only on election day.
some interesting links.
http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/date/1350630000/
btw Romney operations there is still very much ongoing...they are not taking anything for granted.
Yep and the enthusiasm numbers help Romney a little. Thankfully the democrat machine on the ground is much better at getting the voters out than the GOP.
It's not as difficult to get old white men out to vote though
Since when was NBC/WSJ/Marist gold standard?
There really is no gold standard in the age of poll averages such as RCP's. Each poll has a different methodology, and in years past before the age of Nate Silver and a few others, the methods weren't challenged. We've now seen that Gallup, which used to be widely considered a "major poll" is often given less weight than others. The only way around this is to ignore individual polls and focus on recent polling averages.
I think you have explained poll averages to Jaz on at least three occasions now.
I don't know why, no one is taking an isolated poll and saying "THIS IS THE GOSPEL TRUTH".
It's obvious that Obama is the front-runner, and with his lead in Ohio, weather it be within MOE, or not, statistically it's difficult to argue that Romney is ahead in the electoral-vote given the battleground state polls.
It's possible that the polls could be wrong and Romney could be ahead in Ohio, but they probably aren't.
National Trackers:
Rasmussen +2 Romney
NBC/Wallst Tie
Rasmussen +2 Romney
NBC/Wallst Tie
Obama up by 5 among registered voters, so as mentioned often - turnout the key.
Can we open a new thread for poll watch? This thread has been tedious with all this rubbish recently.
It'll all be over soon, so relax :P
funny to hear the pundits on Sunday...going on about 'undecided voters'.
really? which idiot after all this overload is undecided?
Nationally they are tied among likely voters. But Dems have an advantage with registered voters and they have a better GOTV operation. So it is getting them to the polls. So far in various states, early voters show Obam well ahead. And the Electoral College numbers favour Obama 2-1.
I would much rather be in Team Obama's shoes.
really? which idiot after all this overload is undecided?
Nationally they are tied among likely voters. But Dems have an advantage with registered voters and they have a better GOTV operation. So it is getting them to the polls. So far in various states, early voters show Obam well ahead. And the Electoral College numbers favour Obama 2-1.
I would much rather be in Team Obama's shoes.
I would like to ask the Americans on here a question. With America being such a religious country, why is Romney's religion not discussed more or is it just a no-go area? I can't help thinking that if Romney was a democrat the Republicans would be attacking his weird, cult religion with multiple-wives and magic underwear etc but it's not mentioned at all. An atheist or a Jew could never run for President but someone with very odd religious beliefs can. I don't care what religion a leader has, as long as they're not satanists or something, but I know it's such a big deal in the States.
That is indictment of the incumbent I am afraid. Despite Romney being undesirable on many levels people are still considering voting for him...WHY? because the economy is still in the doldrums and people have little confidence Obama or his polices will actually spark a major economic recovery.
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