US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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It seems the debates aren't quite the Obama slam dunk everyone thought. If Ryan performs well against Biden it will give the swing voters something to consider.
 
Obama was not prepared for the complete lies for every issue from Romney...and with all the aggression too :)

fortunately he did not bring up the 47% issue which Romney was prepared to lie about too....He went on Fox and lied there. no matter...preaching to the converted.

I hope they are still running the ads. They sound bad every time you hear it.
 
Obama was not prepared for the complete lies for every issue from Romney...and with all the aggression too :)

fortunately he did not bring up the 47% issue which Romney was prepared to lie about too....He went on Fox and lied there. no matter...preaching to the converted.

I hope they are still running the ads. They sound bad every time you hear it.

Irony much :lol:

They are fighting over the unconverted right now and those votes are there for the taking. Obama's four year record is far from Stella, and Obama-care is pretty unpopular among those voters.

Obama is more likeable but he really needs to bring more to the table than trying to harp back to GW Bush and 2008 at every turn. Voters have short memories and he needs to fight the election on his record and what he will do in the next four years.

If Ryan and Romney continue to perform well in the debates and start to look like a serious option it might be a lot closer than we thought it was going to be.
 
it will be close in total votes no doubt. still think it will be a landslide victory for Obama. The swing states are not going to turn over...with possible exception of Virginia..Florida will be close. but with the voter suppression efforts being challenged Obama should be ok.

err Obama care is becoming popular if you have not noticed. (Ask Ryan) I'm sure all those seniors would love to be on a voucher program.
 
Not keen on him either but he breaches stuff that hits the hearts strings of many Americans. If he has had the coaching Romney had Biden better bring his A-game with NO gaffs.
 
err Obama care is becoming popular if you have not noticed. (Ask Ryan) I'm sure all those seniors would love to be on a voucher program.

Only around 40% of the electorate are against repealing it, and I am guessing that are pretty much exclusively in the Dems anyway. Obama-care has its good points but it also has many warts and is very unappealing to many voters. Its not something that will help Obama win the election.
 
Only around 40% of the electorate are against repealing it, and I am guessing that are pretty much exclusively in the Dems anyway. Obama-care has its good points but it also has many warts and is very unappealing to many voters. Its not something that will help Obama win the election.

Voucher program will help Obama especially in Florida.

Romney did not entirely reject that...surprisingly.

Biden will nail Ryan (Romney) on it too.
 
Watching his RNC speech now. Not impressive. He's a poor orator.

Yep and someone that "hates the stupid little turd" is going to be impartial with their assessments.....:lol: just sayin ;)

We all thought Obama would tear Romney a new one and look what happened there. Ryan is a far more accomplished speaker than Mitt and he only has to tackle the human gaff machine. I am not confident Biden will come out on top.
 
Obama missed a great chance to attack Romney and scare the shit out of the middle classes last week. Removing tax deductions would be devastating for many families. With mortgage tax relief, property tax and other deductions many Americans reduce their tax bills by $5-10k per year. That would represent one of the largest tax hikes on the middle classes in history.
 
Yep and someone that "hates the stupid little turd" is going to be impartial with their assessments.....:lol: just sayin ;)

We all thought Obama would tear Romney a new one and look what happened there. Ryan is a far more accomplished speaker than Mitt and he only has to tackle the human gaff machine. I am not confident Biden will come out on top.

It's my opinion that he's a stupid turd, and an unconvincing snake oil salesman. And his oratical skills are very unimpressive when you contrast them to, say, Clinton or Obama's. Plus his voice makes him sound like a teenager whose balls have yet to drop.

Nor am I. Not if he'll be allowed to lie as much as Romney without being called on it.
 
Chris Matthews had an interesting piece on Hardball recently where he questioned why Romney picked Ryan when he's actually running against the policies Ryan championed and is most famous for. It seems as though he picked him because he's largely neutral, not highly unlikable, and would tidily stay out of the way during the campaign and over the course of a possible Presidency.
 
I'm surprised Stewart thought the debt was wiped out under Clinton. Budget surplus doesn't mean there was no debt.
 
I'm surprised Stewart thought the debt was wiped out under Clinton. Budget surplus doesn't mean there was no debt.

I think he just mixed it up an realized it to late what he was saying, would have helped though if he said "oops my bad of course it's the deficit not the debt".

This can happen but at least correct yourself if you notice the mistake, otherwise you may end up looking like a clown.

That being said Stewart is a clown and O'Reilly is one too, even though unintentionally.
 
Biden is not exactly known for his lack of gaffes. While I think (and hope) he will do fine, it's not a lock.

Yeah, did you like the one where he told a mostly black crowd that the republicans wanted to put the chains back on them?

I mean, wow. Even I wouldn't say that.
 
Much better polling for Obama today, +5 in Gallup (up 2) and tied in Rasmussen (also up 2), who also have state polls in Iowa and Colorado showing Obama leads (+2 and plus 1). Looking quite possible that Romney got a big-ish bounce on friday, but it receded quite quickly.
 
Yeah, did you like the one where he told a mostly black crowd that the republicans wanted to put the chains back on them?

I mean, wow. Even I wouldn't say that.

It wasn't a "mostly black crowd". It was a crowd of Virginians, probably mostly democrats, which got spun as "mostly black" by Republicans not used to seeing black faces in a crowd.
 
Much better polling for Obama today, +5 in Gallup (up 2)

Gallup is a moving seven days, so a fair chunk of the poll will be pre-debate. It is also a registered voter poll and not a likely voter poll, which is even less reliable.

That voter enthusiasm might spring a huge surprise next month if Romney/Ryan hold their own in the debates.
 
It'll have one more post-debate day and one-less pre-debate day than yesterday's poll which was 2 points lower.

If you want the real numbers the truth is out there:

Gallup Pre Debate (Sep 30th - Oct 2nd)
Obama 50% Romney 45%

Gallup Post Debate (Oct 4th- Oct 6th)
Obama 47% Romney 47%
 
Mjs, you're completely missing the point. The 7 day tracker went towards Obama 2 points today, so the polling on the 7th was 2 points better for Obama than the polling on the 30th. The 4-6th data is now old.

Can someone with a maths brain work out what the 5-7th numbers would be for that?
 
Not sure wtf Gallup are doing.

Polls are slightly better for Romney in terms of tightening, I think he might have some momentum.

Colarado polls looking better for Obama, some decent numbers, still surprisingly tight in that state.
 
I raised the voter enthusiasm numbers about three months ago, so here is a more recent article. Last weeks debate almost certainly increased the gap between the two groups of voters when it comes to enthusiasm.


http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2012/10/08/voter-enthusiasm-gap-the-real-challenge-to-obama-re-election/

While polls confirm that Mitt Romney’s debate performance has allowed him to climb back into the presidential contest in a meaningful way, it is also becoming clear that President Obama—and Democrats everywhere—may be facing a more insidious challenge to success this November…

Voter apathy.

Appearing on “Meet The Press” Sunday, NBC’s Chuck Todd presented the numbers that reveal an ‘across the board’ advantage for Republicans in the enthusiasm race.

According to Todd, seventy-nine percent of GOP voters indicate that they are ‘extremely interested’ in the presidential election while only seventy-three percent of Democrats are similarly motivated to get out there and cast their vote come November 6th.

That’s a swing in the direction of the Republicans of nineteen percent when compared to the 2008 presidential election when the Democrats won the enthusiasm battle by thirteen percent—a very significant number.

What’s more, the Republican advantage scales every key voter demographic.
 
:confused: Hard to tell who's bouncing, Romney's debate or employment number... Might cancel each other out which is a problem for Romney.

Eitherway, Romney is still behind, and barring a miracle he is going to lose.

Romney certainly did have bounce from his debate performance.

Obama has a bounce from the Job Numbers and Unemployment rate.

I saw another poll where his overall approval for handling the economy was good.

Going into these last few weeks, it was always going to be the economy....or to be precise the perception of how the economy was doing.

Someone who is unemployed would not be better off today compared to a week ago, but he will feela little better that he probabaly has a better chance...there is some light at teh end of the tunnel.
 
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