The now cast doesn't really mean a lot, though. He's climbed to 15% in the forecast and that's based on just one day's worth of post-debate polling.
I'm back to bricking it.
I'm back to bricking it.
US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012
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Obama has already switched gears and is back to his old energetic self. I'd imagine he wil go for the jugular and keep Romney on the back foot next time. Also, the Biden/Ryan debate should offer a glimpse of where Obama will go.
Not really tied in with the presidential elections...seeing as immigration and the border seems to have taken a back seat to other 'issues' - but the FBI are now saying the Border Guard Agent killed a couple of days ago in Arizona was most likely a victim of friendly fire, the same for the injured agent.
This is of course after Republicans decided to jump over each other to blame the govt for failing to protect the border, and basically implied Obama had blood on his hands. The 'killing' was the 1st such incident since 2010...
Funnier still was Mexican authorities claiming to have apprehended two people involved in the shooting the next day
This is of course after Republicans decided to jump over each other to blame the govt for failing to protect the border, and basically implied Obama had blood on his hands. The 'killing' was the 1st such incident since 2010...
Funnier still was Mexican authorities claiming to have apprehended two people involved in the shooting the next day
Are WeAskAmerica and rasmussen part of the same firm?
Odd to see how their polls yesterday in the same states and same ball park figures/ However, Nate Silver has a good article about phone polling perhaps oversampling republican voters, or increased enthusiasm..
Let's see what the other post-debate pollsters are saying..
Odd to see how their polls yesterday in the same states and same ball park figures/ However, Nate Silver has a good article about phone polling perhaps oversampling republican voters, or increased enthusiasm..
Let's see what the other post-debate pollsters are saying..
They may not be related, but likely have similar sampling methods that are pro-GOP.
This is good:
Fantastic video.
That's pretty good.
excellent...simple enough even a Republican can understand.
Has anyone else seen 2016 yet? It starts out with some reasonably balanced and interesting biographical stuff about Obama, with D'Souza travelling to Indonesia and Kenya to discover some of Obama's roots. Then it degenerates into bizarre interviews and claims about the apocalypse that will follow his re-election.
First half: 7/10
Second half: 0/10
First half: 7/10
Second half: 0/10
Terrific video; it should be required watching for anyone still undecided.
Nah, I don't waste my time on pseudo intellectuals like Dinesh D'Souza.
D'Souza is an intellectual?? 
EDIT..ah sorry.. missed the 'pseudo' part.
EDIT..ah sorry.. missed the 'pseudo' part.
Never heard of this D'Souza chap so I wiki-ed him. My first impressions is that the man's a clinical moron - nothing worse than a self-proclaimed conservative expert wearing a tin-foil hat.
This whole election reminds me very much of the South Park episode where they have to vote for either a douche or a turd sandwich.
I mean no matter who Americans vote for it's not going to get better for them and the only ones that will profit are the military industrial complex and the super rich, while the rest of the people end up paying the bill.
I mean no matter who Americans vote for it's not going to get better for them and the only ones that will profit are the military industrial complex and the super rich, while the rest of the people end up paying the bill.
2 polls showing Romney up in Colarado. Both pollsters have some level of Republican lean.
I'd say that CO is one of the three swing states Romney has a decent shot at winning.
Anyone who says the election doesn't matter clearly hasn't given much thought to what a regional war in the Middle East would entail.
Except neither candidate has the political and economic power to wage any ground war anywhere in the middle east. So, it's mainly just a dance around who can sound the toughest whilst not doing very much anywhere in the middle east.
After two such wars in the last decade, I think you're being very optimistic.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html
a non GOP poll has Obama ahead and this is after the debate.
I'm quietly confident Obama will win the Western States of CO, NV and NM....his firewall against losing Ohio, which I don't see Obama losing.
Florida is the big one. But Romney's medicare voucher plan will bring Obama over the line imo.
Also lets remember early voting in states like Iowa, Ohio and soon Florida will help Obama. Many of the voter suppression efforts by the GOP have been either curtailed or stopped completely.
My overall prediction is still a Comfortable Obama victory...with NC and Arizona the only states in question.
He can't afford another performance like the last debate, though. It was the equivalent of losing at Wigan.
The daily tracking polls have stayed the same as they were yesterday, so seemingly yesterday's results were the same as those on the pre-debate day that was knocked out. Still far too close for comfort though (RCP seem to be fudging their tracking score, as an aside).
I was reading recently about the separate strategies to 270 the Obama campaign have been working on - western (CO, NV, NM, IA), mid-western (IA, OH), southern (VA, NC) and just Florida. Still in a very strong position when you look at it like that. But alas, I remain concerned.
The daily tracking polls have stayed the same as they were yesterday, so seemingly yesterday's results were the same as those on the pre-debate day that was knocked out. Still far too close for comfort though (RCP seem to be fudging their tracking score, as an aside).
I was reading recently about the separate strategies to 270 the Obama campaign have been working on - western (CO, NV, NM, IA), mid-western (IA, OH), southern (VA, NC) and just Florida. Still in a very strong position when you look at it like that. But alas, I remain concerned.
from a neutral perspective, it was always going to be easier for a democrat to win than a republican. This trend will continue to favour the democrats in future elections. The GOP will need to take a massive shift to the middle (and I don't mean the recent Romney nonsense of spouting lies) for them to get close to the democrats, because changing demographics.
Yeah a douche is probably a bit better then a turd sandwich.
But you pretty much described what the problem is the dems are only a light version of the republicans because both parties essentially have the same donors.
The super rich and companies who are lobbying in favor of their interests.
Imo the only way to fix your democracy is to get the private and corporate donations out of politics.
The American political system seems to be broken as money, lies, religion and lobbying seem to be the order of the day. However, the GOP has been particularly obstructionist and determined that Obama does not get re-elected from day 1 and he could have been the greatest President ever and they would still hate him. Anyway I hope Obama pulls it off and the demographics are in his favour but he needs to smarten up over the next month and also the democrats must get their base out in huge numbers like they did last time or the republicans could steal it still.
Romney has gone to 8.8% chance of winning on the 538 Now-Cast, from a low of 1.9% a week ago.
The Nov. 6 forecast is 19.8% from a low of 12.9%.
The Nov. 6 forecast is 19.8% from a low of 12.9%.
correct. first step is to change the Supreme court justices to be left leaning. then to overturn citizens united.
the analysis is if the Democrats have an average turnout, they will still win, even if the GOP turnout is very good. the democrats will lose if their turnout is low.
Spot on!
Riiiiight
Unless every pollster is completely botching the numbers (other than Rasmussen
) I still don't see any way through for Romney. The repubs are hyping up the poll numbers as bad data in order to make sure they're people don't just give up on voting day and stay assuming Obama will roll to a victory no matter if they vote or not.how else can citizens united be over turned?
of course, that in itself does not solve the whole problem. If contributions are limited, be in corporations or individuals..McCain Feingold...for a start, we will be on the right track.
Both parties are corporations, but as we discussed before the Democratic party is very much better...
change will come slowly, but Obama with a second term will accomplish a lot of good things.
of course, that in itself does not solve the whole problem. If contributions are limited, be in corporations or individuals..McCain Feingold...for a start, we will be on the right track.
Both parties are corporations, but as we discussed before the Democratic party is very much better...
change will come slowly, but Obama with a second term will accomplish a lot of good things.
If you want to talk about McCain Feingold you should look into the last general election. JM was happy to build on his legislation and take the positive steps you talk about, Obama reneged on his pledges.
Whens the next debate?
Biden and Ryan debate on the 11th and Obama and Romney the 16th.
Who said anything about a ground war? And what does America 'political and economic power' have to do with the price of fish? I'm talking about Israel and Iran going to war (the notion of 'srgical strikes' is a fantasy), and the Pandora's box that that will open. It's a nightmare scenario which is substantially more likely if Romney is in the Oval Office.
(If polls bore you, don't read this!)
This is interesting, the PPP pollster talking about its latest Virginia poll (Obama 50-47):
This is interesting, the PPP pollster talking about its latest Virginia poll (Obama 50-47):
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