US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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Mozza said:
The 50% tax rate was removed because this government is run by rich people for rich people
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Please take the time to read the evidence. Especially as there's so little out there about it.

The document clearly highlights that the 50% raised less than £1bn tax (massively below forecasted 3bn), and could even have been negative is tax revenue raising.
 
Jaz said:
Even if they have a GOP bias, this doesn't explain away the trend in the state getting tighter recently by all pollsters.

Also Rasmussen had Obama leading in Virginia since April.
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The polls generally go up and down, but Obama has more or less been consistently ahead in VA, so the Rasmussen poll has little credibility in this regard, especially when contrasted to the RCP average. Also not being discussed much, is the fact that Obama has more or less caught Romney in NC, so even if Romney surprisingly squeaks out a win in one of the swing states, it could be meaningless in the end if he doesn't hold on to NC.
 
Rasmussen's recent Virginia polls (since the last Repub lead in May, most recent first) - +1R, +1D, Tie, +2D, Tie, +1R. They seem pretty steady to me.

I'm more worried about WeAskAmerica, they've done a 3 point Romney lead in Virginia and a 1 point lead in Ohio. How reliable are they usually?
 
Raoul said:
The polls generally go up and down, but Obama has more or less been consistently ahead in VA, so the Rasmussen poll has little credibility in this regard, especially when contrasted to the RCP average. Also not being discussed much, is the fact that Obama has more or less caught Romney in NC, so even if Romney surprisingly squeaks out a win in one of the swing states, it could be meaningless in the end if he doesn't hold on to NC.
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Not sure what you're point is.

I'm suggesting the polls are tightening in Virginia, and you're suggesting they're tightening in North Carolina? Fair enough.

Though I don't think you can rule out Rasmussen polls. They do overestimate the GOP. They do give useful trend data though, which is my point. I think Rasmussen is the most 'sensitive' of the polls to pick up the trend in polling and voting intentions, but tend to be less accurate.
 
Ubik said:
Rasmussen's recent Virginia polls (since the last Repub lead in May, most recent first) - +1R, +1D, Tie, +2D, Tie, +1R. They seem pretty steady to me.

I'm more worried about WeAskAmerica, they've done a 3 point Romney lead in Virginia and a 1 point lead in Ohio. How reliable are they usually?
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Not sure about WeAskAmerica, DailyKos had a go at them for dodgy methodology in Wisconsin's recall election. WAA called it right.
 
We'll obviously have to wait till more polls come out to get an accurate idea, but I'm a tad more concerned than I was.
 
Jaz said:
Not sure what you're point is.

I'm suggesting the polls are tightening in Virginia, and you're suggesting they're tightening in North Carolina? Fair enough.

Though I don't think you can rule out Rasmussen polls. They do overestimate the GOP. They do give useful trend data though, which is my point. I think Rasmussen is the most 'sensitive' of the polls to pick up the trend in polling and voting intentions, but tend to be less accurate.
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My point is exactly what I said earlier - Rasmussen's polls are unreliable. He apparently only polls people with landline phones, so it's no surprise that his numbers are off.
 
Ubik said:
We'll obviously have to wait till more polls come out to get an accurate idea, but I'm a tad more concerned than I was.
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I think Nate Silver also mentioned it had a slight republican bias, if that helps you.

Doesn't make much of a difference though. The only way Obama is going to lose is if he's down in Florida, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina at the same time.
 
Christ, people are stupid. They've still not understood this?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi..._5_trillion_attack_on_romney_is_not_true.html

Obama deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter admitted on CNN's "OutFront" tonight that their claim that Mitt Romney's tax plan costs $5 trillion is untrue.

Burnett explained closing deductions is what solves the amount of revenue lost by the lowering of tax rates.

"Well, okay, stipulated. It won't be near $5 trillion but it's also not going to be the sum of $5 trillion in the loopholes that he's going to close," Cutter responded.

Cutter eventually acknowledged that the closing of deductions accounts for at least four trillion of the five trillion in lost revenues she claims that will not be collected in taxes. Transcript below.
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And if you watch the video Cutter says what the Obama campaign has always said.

Cutter: Well, okay, stipulated. It won't be near $5 trillion but it's also not going to be the sum of $5 trillion in the loopholes that he's going to close. So it is going to cost someone and it's going to cost the middle class. Independent economists have taken a look at this. There aren't enough deductions for those at the top to account for the number of tax cuts that they get because of Mitt Romney's policy so you have to raise taxes on the middle class. As Bill Clinton said, it's just simple math.

Cutter: But that still leaves you at least a trillion dollars short. The math does not work with what they're saying. And they won't name those deductions, not a single deduction that they will close because they know that is bad for their politics. Now look, this is the center, this is the core of Mitt Romney's economic policy. Last night, he walked away from it, said he didn't have a $5 trillion tax cut. He does. That's what lowering the rates amounts to.
 
It's the Liverpool transfer policy argument. "What? Andy Carroll didn't cost £35m, we offset it by selling Torres".

Jaz said:
I think Nate Silver also mentioned it had a slight republican bias, if that helps you.

Doesn't make much of a difference though. The only way Obama is going to lose is if he's down in Florida, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina at the same time.
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Having a look at some of their other polls, they don't seem to have much of a house effect, although they produce a few outliers.
 
eKK17.jpg
 
I love how Romney wants to eliminate the only taxes that he pays, capital gains and dividends.
 
Take this for what it is worth regarding the "notes"

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/wa...omney-did-not-bring-cheat-notes-to-the-debate

I have not watched all the video referenced in the article yet but it claims to show him wiping his face with the object later in the debate, which would indicate that as Romney's camp is claiming that it was a hankerchief.

According to the article the rules for the 2012 debate were not released to the public. The quote in the article about the rules claims the rule quoted is from the 2004 debate.


EDIT: Watched the video section they mentioned and he does wipe his face with something then place it on the podium. Whether that is the same object he took from his pocket, I can not say.
 
Paul Ryan on Fox News Sunday.

http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/fox-n...ul-ryan-on-fox-news-sunday/?playlist_id=86913

I really hate this Ryan turd.

Wallace: "Let's just assume that the numbers don't add up. What's most important for Romney, would he scale back on the 20% tax cut for the wealthy..."

Ryan: "No."

Wallace: "... would he scale back and say "Ok, we're gonna have to raise taxes on the middle-class"? I guess the question is, what's most important to him in his tax reform plan?"

Ryan: "Keeping the tax rate down. That's more important than anything."
 
JustAFan said:
Take this for what it is worth regarding the "notes"

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/wa...omney-did-not-bring-cheat-notes-to-the-debate

I have not watched all the video referenced in the article yet but it claims to show him wiping his face with the object later in the debate, which would indicate that as Romney's camp is claiming that it was a hankerchief.

According to the article the rules for the 2012 debate were not released to the public. The quote in the article about the rules claims the rule quoted is from the 2004 debate.


EDIT: Watched the video section they mentioned and he does wipe his face with something then place it on the podium. Whether that is the same object he took from his pocket, I can not say.
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We can safely say it was a hanky. Was quite fun having a conspiracy theory for a few minutes though, I can understand why the Repubs keep coming up with them.
 
Ubik said:
Rasmussen's recent Virginia polls (since the last Repub lead in May, most recent first) - +1R, +1D, Tie, +2D, Tie, +1R. They seem pretty steady to me.

I'm more worried about WeAskAmerica, they've done a 3 point Romney lead in Virginia and a 1 point lead in Ohio. How reliable are they usually?
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WAA is a GOP pollster.

Look at the Gallup Tracking from today. Obama is up 5.

I think there may be a point or two movement for Romney when we see the polls come out Monday. Virginia has tightened...as has Florida. I need to see the non GOP polls on Monday to decide if Ohio has tightened too.

RCL has it as toss up.

But the good job numbers will help the Presdient. great timing after the debate perception that Romney won. I expect Biden will hit Romney...not Ryan hard next week. and teh town hall format will help Obama and I know he will do very well.

3rd one is on Foreign Policy...and Romney will talk about the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany.
 
gooDevil said:
From an article someone posted earlier, even the old school trickle down economics guys think Ryan doesn't know what he's doing:

"Ryan takes out the ax and goes after programs for the poor – which is the last thing you ought to cut," says David Stockman, who served as Ronald Reagan's budget director. "It's ideology run amok."

Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/mitt-romneys-real-agenda-20120928#ixzz28RvQoTXj
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Stockman wrote a piece in the NYT a couple of months ago

Thirty years of Republican apostasy — a once grand party’s embrace of the welfare state, the warfare state and the Wall Street-coddling bailout state — have crippled the engines of capitalism and buried us in debt. Mr. Ryan’s sonorous campaign rhetoric about shrinking Big Government and giving tax cuts to “job creators” (read: the top 2 percent) will do nothing to reverse the nation’s economic decline and arrest its fiscal collapse.
 
Raoul said:
The polls generally go up and down, but Obama has more or less been consistently ahead in VA, so the Rasmussen poll has little credibility in this regard, especially when contrasted to the RCP average. Also not being discussed much, is the fact that Obama has more or less caught Romney in NC, so even if Romney surprisingly squeaks out a win in one of the swing states, it could be meaningless in the end if he doesn't hold on to NC.
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Just look at the offices Obama has in all states.

He will win NC...perhaps even Arizona.
 
I enjoyed this summary of the GOP reaction to today's jobs report:

Brian Beutler ‏@brianbeutler
WHERE ARE THE JOBS?!! Wait, they're there? Wtf, get them away!
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I love when they play football. Maybe you guys aren't 100% familiar with how (american) football is played but you have to be like 10-20 yards away to throw a football around, not just stand in a doorway.


Ha ha, what a story Mark.
 
How on earth did W win any election with these pre-election debates there as an opportunity to expose him for the impostor he really was. I've never really understood that.
 
That makes me feel sick in a multitude of ways.

As did this line in Nate Silver's latest article:

So I would bet on Mr. Romney right now given the odds the model offers — but I’d have done so more confidently before the morning’s jobs report.
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