US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

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Ubik said:
Check out which polls they include in their average though, and the dates and the respective polling scores.
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They usually include the last version of each nationally collected poll, who are known to report at regular intervals. I think they also cut-off by some date, not sure what though.

It's not really scientific adjustment. If you want that then you have Nate Silver or Pollster.
 
But they coincidentally stop right before the "Obama +7" one. Right. And ignore the more recent "Obama +9" one. Okay.

Jaz - I was more just curious about the site itself, I know there are plenty of other places.

Grinner said:
Was that debate argument about a tax break for moving a factory overseas ever fact-checked?
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I think it was true that such breaks exist, but the money Obama said it would create by bringing them back was exaggerated.
 
Ubik said:
But they coincidentally stop right before the "Obama +7" one. Right. And ignore the more recent "Obama +9" one. Okay.

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Both old polls with small samples and a large margin of error. Youw ere complaining a couple of weeks ago when Obama had a big lead on their poll.

Based on the debates and public opinion right now I think their numbers are fairly accurate. If Romney/Ryan do well in the dabates it will be a close election with Obama winning. If Obama bounces back he will win comfortably.
 
There's one included with a greater margin of error and a smaller sample than both, from more or less the same date...
 
Some interesting polls today;

Romney up +2 on Gallup and IBD/TIPP. Gallup use rolling averages, so this probably means theres been a big swing back to Obama the day before.

Gravis saying +9 to Romney in North Carolina. The poll is usually pro-Romney, but +9 is probably putting North Carolina in learning Romney from toss-up.

ARG saying Romney 1 up in Ohio, this is a shocking poll and against everything we've seen recently.
 
Should note Jaz that the +2 Romney Gallup is likely voters, which they've started publishing today. It's been a bad day for Obama in general, ironically that Gallup one being the most positive for him - he's up 5 if you only take into account the last couple of days of data with RVs. Interestingly his approval is back up to pre-debate level as well. But other than that he's behind in pretty much all of them, including Colorado.

Romney's definitely tightened this right up though. What is it with this year and comfortable leads being squandered towards the death?
 
Red Dreams said:
Obama up by 4 in Ohio CNN poll.

I expect you will get settled numbers by Wednesday.

Then things may change again depending on how the Biden/Ryan debate goes.
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Seems more of a sensible number.

I suppose the only saving grace for Romney is that at this time of the campaign, Obama was a lot further ahead of McCain in 08.

Romney needs a miracle.
 
^Interestingly, apparently 8 years ago tomorrow, Kerry took a 1 point lead over Bush in likely voters in Gallup. Amazing how similar this race is to that one.
 
I am finding this whole turn around in the polls unbelievable. How can be people be taken in by one "good" debate by someone who is lying and changing his position daily. It's just too bad Obama let Romney get away with it without challenging him and perhaps this shows a weakness in Obama's personality or perhaps he just had a bad day. In any event I hope Biden wipes the floor with Ryan and Obama can win the next 2 debates.
 
From what I've read in the aftermath, the people prepping Obama for the debates had seen him behave in two different ways when they practised - aggressive and lively, or passive and withdrawn. Apparently on an average of two in three sessions, the latter would show up, as it did in the debate. Hopefully the kick up the arse in the polls can reverse that trend, otherwise it's worrying.

It's also quite possible that the Romney bounce only lasted for a couple of days, we'll just have to see how the polls are by the end of the week.
 
CheadleBeagle said:
I am finding this whole turn around in the polls unbelievable. How can be people be taken in by one "good" debate by someone who is lying and changing his position daily. .
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Its perfectly understandable. We have an incumbent that has failed to impress most people with his actual record. Obama is a cool guy and a good speaker but many of his policies are unpopular with the majority.

Romney/Ryan were relativity unknown to the masses and the conference and debates have helped their images. When a nominee wins a debates by a huge margin it gives the independents some codependent he might actually be worthy of the position.


Ubik said:
It's also quite possible that the Romney bounce only lasted for a couple of days, we'll just have to see how the polls are by the end of the week.[/B]
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The bounce just went higher. He is ahead in the combined poll for the first time.
 
mjs020294 said:
The bounce just went higher. He is ahead in the combined poll for the first time.
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Yes, with polls conducted immediately after the debates. There is evidence to suggest it recedes after the first couple of days, which is why I said to see how the polls move over the week.
 
Real Politics have it 294:244 in Obama's favor right now. Obama has a tiny margin in Ohio and Virginia, so the shit just got real.
 
CNN had a segment when a reporter attended a Romney/Ryan campaign and asked attendees if they felt the polls were biased. Just about every attendee (all white, mostly over age 40 from what I saw) claimed the liberal media bias, the polls were biased to favor democrat because they want Obama to win, and more. When the reporter told the attendees news about today's polls suddenly the attitude seemed to change and most attendees now believed in the polls. What a crock of shit.

And now my grandmother has started posting tripe on facebook. I saw this gem last night and not yet responded, I may not because it's pointless.

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I've managed to create a short list in response, please feel free to correct or add to it.

1. False. Bureau of Labor Statistics lists unemployment at 12.1m. The only way to get to 23m is to simply take the percentage and multiply but total population which is inaccurate.
2. And now under 7.8%, just a tad higher than Bush's last few months of 7.5%. And a special thanks to GOP for blocking the Jobs Act.
3. Thanks to the previous administration's massive economic and policy blunders.
4. Racist and irrelevant.
5. Still lower than Bush's last few months in office (at over $4 per gallon in 2008).
6. Racist and irrelevant.
7. Racist and irrelevant.
8. Where's the proof? Again a racist and insular point.
9. See #3.
10. While the top 10% in wealth have gotten richer thanks to prior policies set in place in the first Bush term. Also correlates to #3. Romney will not help the middle class with his tax policy.
11. Not as stagnant as under Bush. See #2.
12. This economic depression was nearly as bad as the Great Depression which took a full decade to recover. I presume Obama is supposed to be a miracle performer to turn around in four years, the last two blocked by GOP controlled house.
13. False. Romney lied here too. The number is closer to $3,200. Romney's tax plan will see this number rise.
14. And now healthcare can be had by all not just those with insurance and/or wealth. Romney will attempt to repeal ACA, will not allow those with pre-existing conditions to buy insurance, and will turn Medicare into a voucher program.
15. I can't begin to explain this and not point towards prior economic blunders.
16. What, no black/hispanic point here? What about white unemployment rates?
17. And just over 50% during his tenure - under Bush the debt DOUBLED.

Surely this list is missing the TP's most important reason...
18. Because he's black! (joke)
 
The Reason Not To Vote For Romney

1. "47% of Americans pay no income tax...my job is not to worry about those people. I'll never convince them to take responsibility and care for their lives."

Don't let him get away with it! Don't let him give a two-faced apology after standing by it on more than one occasion since. If a listless debate performance is more important to the race than those comments come the end, I'll be genuinely depressed with humans.

RD - I think Colorado might be close, but he'll for sure take NM and probably NV. It'll make for a very uncomfortable night though if Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia and Florida are all toss ups.
 
What if Romney wins the lot? How would it change your perception of the country and where do you think its heading?
 
sglowrider said:
What if Romney wins the lot? How would it change your perception of the country and where do you think its heading?
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I really don't know. I was gobsmacked when Bush won vs. Gore, a candidate whom I really liked. It was a real wake up for me as I realized I'd lost touch with much of the country. Absolutely gutshot when he was re-elected. Well past forlorn.

I don't guess I dislike Romney as much as I did Bush, though if he runs us off to kill innocents in foreign lands, it won't take me long. I was slow to take to Obama when he first was running as I thought Hilary deserved a shot, but I've been very proud of the job he's done. If a splendid president like him loses to an out of touch, wooden blue blood then I'll be at wits end. Probably will start by kicking my sister for voting for him.

For all that though, I can't imagine this shallow demagoguery can last. Such a shallow insanity will run hot, but must burn itself out. There's no lasting truth to prop it up for the long term. It feels like the last desperate squeeze of a tired and empty bellows, where it's getting out that last bit of oldest, coldest, and stalest air. After that it will have to draw in some fresh air. No telling what kind of damage they could do if they get their hands on the reigns again though.
 
I don't know much about their respective policies but Romney came across as a complete prick in the debates. Also, he seemed to talk a lot of emotional nonsense rather than just making sense.
 
Also, what was up with Obama saying one thing about Romney's proposed policies and the latter denying any truth in that whatsoever?
 
He's not letting his campaign be dictated by fact-checkers. Or facts.
 
Another poll has Romeny ahead so four of the last six have a Romney lead, with the other two ties.

Its rather biazare. Two weeks ago the superpaks were pulling adverts and Romney's donations were drying up, and now the ads are coming thick and fast again.
 
Are you talking about Rasmussen there or is there another one? Also YouGov/Economist poll out today has Obama ahead by 3, which interestingly didn't interview on Friday.

amolbhatia100 said:
So he lies his way through a debate and is declared the "winner" due to his emotional jargon ?
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You got it.

To be fair to Romney, it was a very good performance. He'd clearly been through a hell of a lot of practice and had memorised a lot of responses to whatever the President might bring up, whilst delivering them crisply and convincingly. Obama, by contrast, was stilted, looked disinterested, waffled, didn't properly respond to Romney's points and let him get away with said twisting of reality.

And to be fair to Obama, he's got a day job as President of a pretty big country and can't devote as much time to debate prep as Romney can. But he still needs to perform a whole lot better than that if he hopes to win, because Romney can quite easily win from this position with two more beatings like that, regardless of facts.
 
amolbhatia100 said:
So he lies his way through a debate and is declared the "winner" due to his emotional jargon ?
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I think before the debate a lot of right leaning people did not like Romney and were undecided about him. But Obama's apathetic debate performance has made Romney look alright and positively "presidential" and those people who were not sure about Romney before are all gung-ho now. It's up to Obama and the Democrats to highlight Romney's flip-flops and lies and above all Obama needs to grow a pair and put up a fight in the last 2 debates. He has totally lost the initiative and once people think that Romney is o.k and likeable, they can accept him. Americans are so easily swayed by shallowness and substance goes out the window. How anyone can think Romney is anything but a hypocritcal liar is beyond me but then this is the nation that voted for George Bush twice.
 


Seriously, all I'm asking for is some kind of temporary mind swap. That's it.
 
Ubik said:
But he still needs to perform a whole lot better than that if he hopes to win, because Romney can quite easily win from this position with two more beatings like that, regardless of facts.
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With the gap so narrow it could go either way now. Obama relied heavily on the fresh new guy replacing GW Bush with his Hope and Change rally cry. This time around people are apathetic and Obama has a record he can be judged on. And the bad news for him is many see him failing on many of his 2008 promises and predictions, which is a perceived has lying.

The apathy was compounded with his poor performance last week, and it will be hard to turn that around. People are tired of the poor economy and many policy worry a lot of people. Obamacare is a vote killer and not a vote winner.

Romney is looking more like a viable option to many people and with the apathy and enthusiasm factors the current poll margins make me very nervous. Obama still has the lead but its not quite the slamdunk it was a month ago.
 
Obamacare is both a vote killer and winner, it depends on the person. It might turn off a centrist that doesn't like the government getting involved in the insurance people buy, but the single woman who'd like her contraceptive health protected might be persuaded. The Obama team's goal is basically to mobilise enough of their 08 coalition to win, and Obamacare is helpful in that.

I agree that Romney boosted his perception in the debate. As Clinton said, he came out as Moderate Mitt, and that guy isn't so bad. He did what he'd failed to do at the convention. The trouble is that most of his policies aren't moderate at all, and Obama has to make that clear.

With the polls, they're close right now in the aftermath of the debate, but just keep an eye on how they move after the first couple of days after the debate aren't taken into account. Gallup's near its pre-debate average again, and consider this:

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It's only one piece of data (although there's more that suggest the same), but certainly reason to believe we don't know exactly what's happening just yet.
 
Plechazunga said:
Do presidential debates usually matter? Political scientists say no.

Wonkbook: The number of presidential elections decided by debates? Zero.

The annoying thing is, the polls are tightening - and after the debate they will probably continue to tighten, cos that's what polls generally do in October - but if Romney is half-decent in the debates this will become a comeback narrative, because that's what the media wants.
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Well how wrong was I

Can't believe one debate, in which Romney just blatantly lied about all the positions he's maintained since spring, has had this much effect.

Gutting.
 
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