Also got to remember that Indiana and Missouri will change hands.
US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012
- Thread starter Team Brian GB
- Start date
- Status
Also got to remember that Indiana and Missouri will change hands.
Obama did not win Missouri last time around. And yes he has no chance winning Indiana.
Dickhead.
Cheers to the three of you. So the likelihoods could already put him safely ahead on 272, even if he lost Virginia, Florida and Ohio (along with NC). That makes me feel a little less tense.
I seem to remember that Missouri was the last state announced in 08, well after everything else, McCain scraping it.
I seem to remember that Missouri was the last state announced in 08, well after everything else, McCain scraping it.
Romney could win with: NC, VA, FL, OH, and Iowa. Very tall order, not impossible. If on election day, Romney leads in the polls in Florida and Ohio, it's going to be a very tense few days.
I don't think it's likely though.
Sept. 7: Polls Find Hints of Obama Convention Bounce
By NATE SILVER
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...-hints-of-obama-convention-bounce/#more-34231
The three national tracking polls that were published on Friday all moved toward President Obama, probably reflecting momentum from the Democratic convention.
In the Gallup national tracking poll, Mr. Obama moved into a three-point lead over Mitt Romney, up from one point on Thursday.
What’s a bit more worrisome for Mr. Romney is that Gallup’s reporting of the head-to-head results in its poll occurs over a lengthy seven-day window, meaning that only a minority of the interviews in the poll were conducted after the major speeches at the Democratic convention.
In fact, most of the interviews in the poll were conducted just after the Republican convention in Tampa, Fla., a period in which Mr. Romney should have been enjoying a convention bounce of his own.
Gallup’s approval ratings, however, are published over a three-day window, meaning that they will be quicker to respond to shifts in opinion. Mr. Obama’s approval ratings shot up to 52 percent in the version of poll published on Friday, while his disapproval ratings declined to 43 percent. The FiveThirtyEight forecast model does not use approval ratings directly, but this is a sign that there could be more good news for Mr. Obama in the head-to-head portion of the poll in the days ahead.
Mr. Obama still trails Mr. Romney in the Rasmussen Reports national tracking poll, but he narrowed his deficit to one point from three on Thursday. Rasmussen publishes its results using a three-day window, quicker than the Gallup, though almost none of their interviews yet reflect reactions to Mr. Obama’s speech on Thursday night.
Finally, Mr. Obama moved into a two-point lead in the online tracking poll conducted by Ipsos, which had given Mr. Romney a one-point lead on Thursday. About half of the interviews in the Ipsos poll were conducted after Michelle Obama’s speech on Tuesday — although only about one-quarter will reflect reaction to former President Bill Clinton’s Wednesday night speech, and almost none to the speech given to Mr. Obama.
It’s certainly important to be cautious when interpreting one-day changes in the polls. But so far, this data is tracking toward a decent-size convention bounce for Mr. Obama. It’s quite unlikely, in fact, that the movement in the polls reflects statistical noise alone.
I looked for previous instances in our database in which both the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls each moved toward Mr. Obama by at least two points on the same day, and found only six other occasions on which they did so, out of about 140 days on which they were both published simultaneously. The Ipsos poll has started to be published only recently, but the fact that it moved toward Mr. Obama also further strengthens the case.
Instead, that Mr. Obama has gained two or three points in polls conducted essentially halfway through his convention suggests that his gains could eventually be larger, perhaps on the order of five points, once the surveys fully reflect post-convention data. Typically, the bounce grows over the course of the convention, peaking in interviews conducted just a day or two after it.
The caveat is that — and yes, this reflects my personal, subjective view — I thought the speeches delivered by Mrs. Obama and Mr. Clinton were stronger than the one given by Mr. Obama himself, and that Democrats’ momentum seemed to peak on Wednesday night rather than on Thursday. Then, Mr. Obama got a mediocre jobs report on Friday.
The better question, then, is not whether the movement in the polls toward Mr. Obama is “real,” but rather how much more of it (if any) he will get, and how long it persists.
Mr. Obama has made considerable gains in the FiveThirtyEight forecast over the past week or two, based initially on the fact that Mr. Romney’s bounce in the polls after his convention was subpar, and now because the numbers have begun to shift back toward Mr. Obama.
However, Mr. Obama will need to continue making gains in the polls over the next several days to retain the improvement he has seen in the forecast. Each day that interviews predating the Democratic conventions are replaced by fresher ones in these polls, the model’s standards will become a little higher for him.
More specifically, Mr. Obama will need to show leads of around four or five points in national polls conducted next week to maintain the advantage the model is now showing for him.
But there is the risk of getting too lost in the technical details, when the calculus is actually fairly simple. Mr. Romney entered the conventions in a narrow deficit to Mr. Obama. The fact that he only pulled into a rough tie in the polls after the Republican convention was a bearish sign for him. If Mr. Obama emerges from the conventions in a stronger position than he entered them with, Mr. Romney’s position will have become a bit difficult.
I don’t want to encourage anybody to root for poor economic news, but it ought have been a relief to Mr. Romney’s campaign that the job growth numbers for August were so tepid. Republicans could use a buzzkill after a convention period that does not appear to have gone terribly well for them.
By NATE SILVER
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...-hints-of-obama-convention-bounce/#more-34231
The three national tracking polls that were published on Friday all moved toward President Obama, probably reflecting momentum from the Democratic convention.
In the Gallup national tracking poll, Mr. Obama moved into a three-point lead over Mitt Romney, up from one point on Thursday.
What’s a bit more worrisome for Mr. Romney is that Gallup’s reporting of the head-to-head results in its poll occurs over a lengthy seven-day window, meaning that only a minority of the interviews in the poll were conducted after the major speeches at the Democratic convention.
In fact, most of the interviews in the poll were conducted just after the Republican convention in Tampa, Fla., a period in which Mr. Romney should have been enjoying a convention bounce of his own.
Gallup’s approval ratings, however, are published over a three-day window, meaning that they will be quicker to respond to shifts in opinion. Mr. Obama’s approval ratings shot up to 52 percent in the version of poll published on Friday, while his disapproval ratings declined to 43 percent. The FiveThirtyEight forecast model does not use approval ratings directly, but this is a sign that there could be more good news for Mr. Obama in the head-to-head portion of the poll in the days ahead.
Mr. Obama still trails Mr. Romney in the Rasmussen Reports national tracking poll, but he narrowed his deficit to one point from three on Thursday. Rasmussen publishes its results using a three-day window, quicker than the Gallup, though almost none of their interviews yet reflect reactions to Mr. Obama’s speech on Thursday night.
Finally, Mr. Obama moved into a two-point lead in the online tracking poll conducted by Ipsos, which had given Mr. Romney a one-point lead on Thursday. About half of the interviews in the Ipsos poll were conducted after Michelle Obama’s speech on Tuesday — although only about one-quarter will reflect reaction to former President Bill Clinton’s Wednesday night speech, and almost none to the speech given to Mr. Obama.
It’s certainly important to be cautious when interpreting one-day changes in the polls. But so far, this data is tracking toward a decent-size convention bounce for Mr. Obama. It’s quite unlikely, in fact, that the movement in the polls reflects statistical noise alone.
I looked for previous instances in our database in which both the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls each moved toward Mr. Obama by at least two points on the same day, and found only six other occasions on which they did so, out of about 140 days on which they were both published simultaneously. The Ipsos poll has started to be published only recently, but the fact that it moved toward Mr. Obama also further strengthens the case.
Instead, that Mr. Obama has gained two or three points in polls conducted essentially halfway through his convention suggests that his gains could eventually be larger, perhaps on the order of five points, once the surveys fully reflect post-convention data. Typically, the bounce grows over the course of the convention, peaking in interviews conducted just a day or two after it.
The caveat is that — and yes, this reflects my personal, subjective view — I thought the speeches delivered by Mrs. Obama and Mr. Clinton were stronger than the one given by Mr. Obama himself, and that Democrats’ momentum seemed to peak on Wednesday night rather than on Thursday. Then, Mr. Obama got a mediocre jobs report on Friday.
The better question, then, is not whether the movement in the polls toward Mr. Obama is “real,” but rather how much more of it (if any) he will get, and how long it persists.
Mr. Obama has made considerable gains in the FiveThirtyEight forecast over the past week or two, based initially on the fact that Mr. Romney’s bounce in the polls after his convention was subpar, and now because the numbers have begun to shift back toward Mr. Obama.
However, Mr. Obama will need to continue making gains in the polls over the next several days to retain the improvement he has seen in the forecast. Each day that interviews predating the Democratic conventions are replaced by fresher ones in these polls, the model’s standards will become a little higher for him.
More specifically, Mr. Obama will need to show leads of around four or five points in national polls conducted next week to maintain the advantage the model is now showing for him.
But there is the risk of getting too lost in the technical details, when the calculus is actually fairly simple. Mr. Romney entered the conventions in a narrow deficit to Mr. Obama. The fact that he only pulled into a rough tie in the polls after the Republican convention was a bearish sign for him. If Mr. Obama emerges from the conventions in a stronger position than he entered them with, Mr. Romney’s position will have become a bit difficult.
I don’t want to encourage anybody to root for poor economic news, but it ought have been a relief to Mr. Romney’s campaign that the job growth numbers for August were so tepid. Republicans could use a buzzkill after a convention period that does not appear to have gone terribly well for them.
burn him!!!....buuuuurn the witch!!!
Jill Stein - 93%
Rocky Anderson - 82%
Gary Johnson - 81%
Barack Obama - 79%
Mitt Romney - 3% (No Major Issues....feck yeah!)
American Voters - 57% (Eh?)
Dems - 95%
Repubs - 2%
I side the most with Obama on Foreign Policy & Science
I think the main question is, who the feck is Jill Stein, and why isn't she running for President?
Yup, Iowa was one of the main ones I was thinking about, considering it really does swing it if things get that close. Romney seems to need a pretty much perfect day though, whereas Obama can under-perform at the polls and still win under various realistic scenarios.
Isn't there usually a swing state that usually calls their result quite early? Is it Virginia? If that comes in Obama, we can pretty much call it. If Romney, squeaky bum time for sure.
Jill Stein 95%
Barack Obama 89%
Rocky Anderson 82%
Mitt Romney 5% (No major issues)
American Voters 59%
Democrat 97%
Green 86%
Libertarian 36%
Republican 3%
So in addition to being more racist than me, you're also more Republican than me.
I'm also slightly confused as to how we side with over half the American population, and yet under 5% of the Republican platform? Even considering the rather limited census, surely that makes no sense? ...for us...sense us...gettid?....Oh feck off!
I'm also slightly confused as to how we side with over half the American population, and yet under 5% of the Republican platform? Even considering the rather limited census, surely that makes no sense? ...for us...sense us...gettid?....Oh feck off!
So true.
Though I remember some drama about it.
they had a recount in Missouri. But the Obama team did not contest the result even though there were disputes as they had already won the election.
as for the debates. I don't think either will really out do the other.
The weeks to the debates will be crucial. expect crazy spending...which is the real tragedy.
I think you have to take into account that by European standards, Jaz is basically Mussolini.
I think that's more that you agree with the generic american populace 56% of the time, rather than 56% of them agreeing with you.
Ah ha. That makes more sense. Probably.
I'd never heard of her but I agree with 97% of what she says (odd since I hardly ever agree with anything anybody says).
If Obama has a good lead I am going to vote for her...I presume she is on the poll in Florida.
Apparently she is running for President. But she runs for the Green Party, which would explain why no one gives a feck.
I went back and redid this quiz and decided to go a bit more detailed. That sounds about right. I knew I was not a 'greenie'. But disappointed I had that many % points in agreement with Romney
83% Barack Obama
82% Jill Stein
65% Rocky Anderson (who????)
4% Mitt Romney (WTF??...I would have hoped ZERO)
Minnesota Voters 51%
American Voters 52%
92% Democrats
82% Green Party
11% Libertarian
3% Republican
83% Barack Obama
82% Jill Stein
65% Rocky Anderson (who????)
4% Mitt Romney (WTF??
...I would have hoped ZERO)Minnesota Voters 51%
American Voters 52%
92% Democrats
82% Green Party
11% Libertarian
3% Republican
89%
Jill Stein
on foreign policy, domestic policy, economic, science, healthcare, social, and environmental issues
80%
Barack Obama
on foreign policy, science, economic, healthcare, social, and environmental issues
70%
Gary Johnson
on foreign policy and domestic policy issues
69%
Rocky Anderson
on foreign policy, domestic policy, and social issues
23%
Virgil Goode
no major issues
11%
Mitt Romney
no major issues
54%
American Voters
on science, healthcare, environmental, and social issues.
Jill Stein
on foreign policy, domestic policy, economic, science, healthcare, social, and environmental issues
80%
Barack Obama
on foreign policy, science, economic, healthcare, social, and environmental issues
70%
Gary Johnson
on foreign policy and domestic policy issues
69%
Rocky Anderson
on foreign policy, domestic policy, and social issues
23%
Virgil Goode
no major issues
11%
Mitt Romney
no major issues
54%
American Voters
on science, healthcare, environmental, and social issues.
Mussolini's a bleeding-heart liberal, try Attila the Hun, just another mid-period laissez-faire free marketeer.
4% Mitt Romney (WTF??
Why, Romney isn't that right wing and he has a record of fairly liberal policies and voting. I would bet Obama has quite a few things in common with him.
I went back and redid this quiz and decided to go a bit more detailed. That sounds about right. I knew I was not a 'greenie'. But disappointed I had that many % points in agreement with Romney
83% Barack Obama
82% Jill Stein
65% Rocky Anderson (who????)
4% Mitt Romney (WTF??
Minnesota Voters 51%
American Voters 52%
92% Democrats
82% Green Party
11% Libertarian
3% Republican
Looking through the details after the quiz, Romney has a few points where he's at least a non-mentalist. ~5% seems about right. The space question was where I got mine, pretty sure.
Obama has a 4 point lead over Romney in Gallup.
Even Rassmussen has Obama ahead by 2
Obama has +10 job approval rating 52 over 42 per Gallup.
Even Rassmussen has Obama ahead by 2
Obama has +10 job approval rating 52 over 42 per Gallup.
I said we should not spend money on Space research during a recession.
Yeah I figured I'd be in the minority there You can click on his name in the results though and see where you were similar.
You can click on his name in the results though and see where you were similar.Of course it was something of a miracle that Obama carried those two states, I didn't think I'd ever see Indiana go blue, still shocked 4 years later.
He did not carry Missouri.
If Europens could vote in this election, i'd imagine Romney getting no votes from this side
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Nate has Obama at 317 and thinks Obama has 80% chance of winning.
Nate has Obama at 317 and thinks Obama has 80% chance of winning.
Also, I don't exactly know what the "now-cast" shows (if the election was held today?), but that's gone up around 7 points today to 300 now as well, and it had been falling for a few days.
Didnt know who she was but
92%
Jill Stein
on foreign policy, domestic policy, economic, science, healthcare, social, and environmental issues
81%
Barack Obama
on foreign policy, science, economic, healthcare, social, and environmental issues
67%
Rocky Anderson
on foreign policy and domestic policy issues
64%
Gary Johnson
on foreign policy, domestic policy, and social issues
29%
Virgil Goode
no major issues
9%
Mitt Romney
no major issues
65%
American Voters
on science, healthcare, environmental, and social issues.
Democrat 98%
Green 96%
Libertarian 38%
Republican 8%
92%
Jill Stein
on foreign policy, domestic policy, economic, science, healthcare, social, and environmental issues
81%
Barack Obama
on foreign policy, science, economic, healthcare, social, and environmental issues
67%
Rocky Anderson
on foreign policy and domestic policy issues
64%
Gary Johnson
on foreign policy, domestic policy, and social issues
29%
Virgil Goode
no major issues
9%
Mitt Romney
no major issues
65%
American Voters
on science, healthcare, environmental, and social issues.
Democrat 98%
Green 96%
Libertarian 38%
Republican 8%
yes. The nowcast means if the election is held today.
And because the majority of the voting population don't have a clue about the issues and only vote based on biased preference, race, etc. I imagine many republican voters taking a blind test would be shocked to see they score toward the left more than the right.
I couldn't resist making this meme...
He was pretty well bang-on in 2008, and that was his first go. He's been generally good since. You'd expect the Presidential race would be where his model would do the best, as there's the most data. It was around this point in 2008 that the race started to shift Obama's way.
Right you are.
The electoral map is very similar to the last election, it's Indiana and North Carolina that look most likely to change hands.
Right you are.
The electoral map is very similar to the last election, it's Indiana and North Carolina that look most likely to change hands.
agree. Though we need to watch the polls in NC in a couple of weeks. Its about turnout really.
If Obama gets that, he will carry NC.
It will be utterly humiliating to the GOP cause if their man manages to lose the election by similar numbers to McCain's in 08, despite a languid economy which normally suggests trouble for the incumbent.
- Status