Romney was bound to get a slight bump following the Ryan nomination, and will also get one after the convention. But as mentioned earlier, all of that will probably get wiped out after Obama gives his speech the following week. Expect polls to be exactly where they've been over the past month or so during the final two months of the campaign. The only thing that will move them enough for Romney to win will be a complete meltdown from the Obama camp, as Obama isn't likely to make any mistakes during the debates. If anything, he will use them to open up a bit of space in the swing states before November.
US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012
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thats the way I see it too.
If there is to be an 'October Surprise' I expect it to involve Romney's Income Taxes'.
Romney finally has a chance to talk about the economy with the CBO report threatening another recesion if all taxes go up end of the year. But Obama can use the same report to attack Romney's tax cuts for the rich plan.
The two states Romney will not win for sure are Virginia and Colorado.
So Romney will lose the elctions.
Its looking good for the RNC 
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/23/isaac-republican-convention_n_1824673.html
shit is going to hit the fan...
shit is going to hit the fan...
That is what I expect also. I think I even said it earlier in this thread, that the polls will swing a bit, especially around the time of each convention and when Romney named his VP candidate. It is normal, nothing to get hyped about.
The debates should also play to Obama's strengths, regardless of who is moderating.
In truth aside from losing the bump in the polls, there really is nothing of value to come from the polticial conventions anymore. They really should scrap them.
A combination of hurricane forced wind combined with a collection of people who spew raw sewage from their mouths for a living was always going to result in poo on the fan blades.
one can hope.
OMG, maybe I should not vote for Obama
http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/23/us/texas-judge-warning/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
Texas need I say more. Oddly I know a couple of people from Texas and they are not like this at all, but I guess I am just fortunate in who I have met from there.
http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/23/us/texas-judge-warning/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
Texas need I say more. Oddly I know a couple of people from Texas and they are not like this at all, but I guess I am just fortunate in who I have met from there.
He's a judge!?
Elected County Judge. Lookinghim up online it seems that accourding to the Lubbock County website among his duties we find:
Perhaps he should give himself one.
Here is some info I found that describes what a County Judge in Texas does.
http://www.dallascounty.org/department/comcrt/jenkins/judge.php
http://www.co.midland.tx.us/ccourt/FAQs/default.asp
Here is what Lubbock County says the position does
General County Administration as provided by law, including:
Director of Emergency Management
Prepare County budget for approval by the County Commissioners
Preside over Commissioners Court
Conducts mental competency hearings and other mental health related duties prescribed by law
Serve on Juvenile Board, SPAG Board, Bail Bond Board, and others
Refuse or issue alcohol beverage permits
Responsibilities associated of holding elections
Give notice of public hearings
May conduct Marriage Ceremonies
So it seems the term County Judge is not quite what most of us would probably think of.
Still the guy is an idiot.
Well here is proof some folks in Tampa are excited about the GOP Convention coming to town.
http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/23/politics/tampa-gop-strip-clubs/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
The best part is that "Lisa Ann" will be in town performing, she who resembles a certain former GOP VP Candidate, and who starred in the "Nailin Paylin" videos. Wonder what the chances are of Sarah P. showing up at the club and asking her pornstar doppleganger for a lap dance?
http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/23/politics/tampa-gop-strip-clubs/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
The best part is that "Lisa Ann" will be in town performing, she who resembles a certain former GOP VP Candidate, and who starred in the "Nailin Paylin" videos. Wonder what the chances are of Sarah P. showing up at the club and asking her pornstar doppleganger for a lap dance?
The most ironic part about the idiot in Lubbock was that his plan for fending off "the UN" required a tax increase.
Not to derail the thread too much, but it has been a good 18 to 20 years since I heard a nice conspiracy theory about "UN Troops" taking over the US. I remember when a few select nut cases were certain the mile markers along the US Highway system were put in place to help guide the "UN Army" when they invaded the US. I would say you can't make this up, but obviously somebody does.
But anyways back to Obama's re-election. What major players from his cabinet will decide to step down/be asked to step down and not serve the 2nd term? Any at all?
Really? It was just earlier this year that an Arizona legislative committee passed a bill that prevented the state government from "implementing any portion of Agenda 21", that being a non-binding UN resolution that takes the radical position that governments should seek sustainable policies, which tinfoil hatters have seized upon as a declaration of global hegemony through reasoning I can't begin to describe.
If Clinton steps down, it'll be her idea, not Obama's, and it means she's gunning for 2016. I don't think Geithner's going anywhere, but it'd be fascinating if he did.
Looks like the Graun are the first to report this
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/aug/23/gawker-mitt-romney-offshore-accounts
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/aug/23/gawker-mitt-romney-offshore-accounts
I was always hopeful that Obama would back her in 2016. If so, she should stay where she is.
I don't know that he'll back her in the says of throwing his weight behind her in the primary, (I expect he'll stay out of that,) but he'll back whoever the party nominates.
One thing about Hillary is that come the 2016 election she will be 69. I am not saying she will be too old to be President, but she would be the 2nd oldest person to be President on their first inauguration day. 2nd only to Ronald Reagan who was just a hair under 70 on his initial inauguration day.
McCain was 72 when he ran and some people did make his age out to be an issue. Certainly not the deciding factor in that election but for some people it did seem part of the equation.
But she is no doddering old lady is she. And if she runs and presents an image of an energetic, experienced politician, well then her age will not be an issue.
McCain was 72 when he ran and some people did make his age out to be an issue. Certainly not the deciding factor in that election but for some people it did seem part of the equation.
But she is no doddering old lady is she. And if she runs and presents an image of an energetic, experienced politician, well then her age will not be an issue.
Well I'd like to think that he would do anything to prevent an R getting in and undoing his work. I think he and Hillary are on the same page with most policies so it would be a continuation of sorts.
A lot will depend on who else is running during the primaries. Which I agree with Excal he will probably stay a bit aloof from. But once the nominee is selected his full weight will get behind them.
The key to telling what she will do will be if she stays on as Sec of State all 4 years of Obama's 2nd term of if she leaves early. If she leaves early, unless it is for health reasons or a scandal of some kind, then I think it means she is running.
Doubting Biden will run he will be what, 74 come 2016, difficult to see him getting the nomination over some younger Democrats.
remember Biden saying, 'We may run as a team' when asked about him and Hillary running.
Obama wont take sides until a nominee is decided. I have my doubts Biden will run though. Think Hillary will run for sure...though, in 4 years she too will be 68. She does not look too good even now....
I think it may be a complete unknown....or Jim Webb.
Watch the main speakers at the Democratic convention. There may be a hint there.
Yup might give a good look at who the powers that be are positioning for the next election. Of course the person/people still have to give a great speech to pull it all off.
Obama was given his chance to help him win the Senate seat in Illinois, not sure if the Dems expected him to be the man in 2008, but it sure worked out that way.
Biden would be a joke...no chance.
Jerry Brown would be more realistic!
Jerry Brown would be more realistic!
price of popcorn has gone up in anticipation of the RNC convention.
Charles Krauthammer on Fox was of the view that they should move Ann Romney's speech to a prime time slot, is she more likely to be viewed as a cynical attempt to deflect away from the Republican's appalling standing among women voters or providing an appealing side to Mitt?
Also what role do you think foreign policy will play later on in the campaign? Romney and Ryan are unashamedly more reckless about Iran and Syria, surely after the handling of Iraq and Afghanistan that remains a negative?
Ryan's speech the other day, think it was in New Hampshire, he was banging on about Iran and all. Crowd lapped it up like a hungry puppy given a bowl of milk. All I could think is there goes the economy if those cnuts win this election. We'll end up fighting multiple fronts in the Middle East while the rich get more tax breaks and ultimately bankrupt the nation.
The Romney team is trying to talk about Economy, Energy, Foreign policy....anything but abortion and Aikin.
Romney took an interview today...but said that he would not answer any questions on abortion and Aikin.
This Aikin fiasco has brought the Christian Conservatives in direct conflict with the shady GOP pubahs like Romney, Karl Rove and other party leaders.
Huckerbee and other Christian conservative leaders have come out in support of Aikin. The coalition of the Christian Right and GOP money men is tearing apart the party in front of our eyes.
...like I said get your popcorns fast.
I like how he thinks! Does he have any plans to save our precious bodily fluids from the international communist conspiracy?
Think Roman Empire -- over stretched resources, lots of internal politicking/fighting...
The Repubs dont do basic math too well -- want to cut gov't spending, fight expensive foreign wars everywhere and expect companies to want to invest with so much uncertainties?
I guess it only means the military-industrial complex will be back in full swing when they get back into power.
Romney will win election, state-by-state study predicts
By Brittany Anas, Daily Camera (Boulder, Colo.)
Posted: 08/23/2012 08:44:28 AM PDT
An analysis from the University of Colorado that has correctly predicted the outcome of presidential elections since 1980 is forecasting Mitt Romney as the winner this year.
Political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry found that the ailing economy spells trouble for the president's re-election bid. The professors conduct a state-by-state analysis, incorporating economic data such as unemployment figures.
The results of their analysis show that Obama will win 218 votes in the electoral college, short of the 270 that he would need to be re-elected.
While their study focuses on the electoral college, the political scientists predict Romney, the presumptive Republican candidate, will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote compared with 47.1 for Obama when considering only the two major political parties.
The economy is a main driver in elections, said Bickers. "If the economy were just average, we would be forecasting Obama to win," Bickers said. "But the economy is below average, and he is struggling."
Bickers said this election cycle has some parallels with 1980 -- a period when the economy was slumping and inflation was skyrocketing -- and voters chose Republican Ronald Reagan over Democratic incumbent President Jimmy Carter.
Bickers said Obama risks losing almost all of the states now considered swing states, including Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.
The CU model has accurately predicted the winner for the last eight presidential elections. The study will be published this month in "PS: Political Science & Politics," a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. The CU study will be among about a dozen election prediction models.
The professors provide some caveats that could affect their forecast, including the time frame the economic data used in the study was collected and close tallies in some states. The data was taken five months in advance of the Nov. 6 election, and the professors plan to update it with more current economic data next month.
"As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict," Berry said in a news release.
http://www.mercurynews.com/elections/ci_21382461/romney-will-win-election-state-by-state-study
By Brittany Anas, Daily Camera (Boulder, Colo.)
Posted: 08/23/2012 08:44:28 AM PDT
An analysis from the University of Colorado that has correctly predicted the outcome of presidential elections since 1980 is forecasting Mitt Romney as the winner this year.
Political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry found that the ailing economy spells trouble for the president's re-election bid. The professors conduct a state-by-state analysis, incorporating economic data such as unemployment figures.
The results of their analysis show that Obama will win 218 votes in the electoral college, short of the 270 that he would need to be re-elected.
While their study focuses on the electoral college, the political scientists predict Romney, the presumptive Republican candidate, will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote compared with 47.1 for Obama when considering only the two major political parties.
The economy is a main driver in elections, said Bickers. "If the economy were just average, we would be forecasting Obama to win," Bickers said. "But the economy is below average, and he is struggling."
Bickers said this election cycle has some parallels with 1980 -- a period when the economy was slumping and inflation was skyrocketing -- and voters chose Republican Ronald Reagan over Democratic incumbent President Jimmy Carter.
Bickers said Obama risks losing almost all of the states now considered swing states, including Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.
The CU model has accurately predicted the winner for the last eight presidential elections. The study will be published this month in "PS: Political Science & Politics," a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. The CU study will be among about a dozen election prediction models.
The professors provide some caveats that could affect their forecast, including the time frame the economic data used in the study was collected and close tallies in some states. The data was taken five months in advance of the Nov. 6 election, and the professors plan to update it with more current economic data next month.
"As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict," Berry said in a news release.
http://www.mercurynews.com/elections/ci_21382461/romney-will-win-election-state-by-state-study
Some folks are predicting that Hurricane Isaac will reach Florida just as Paul Ryan gets to the part of his speech on how FEMA is an institution of the past and needs to be de-funded.
they won't say anything too specific except big govmnts bad, blah blah blah.
was listening to a radio show today and a kentucky farmer was saying that yes he took advantage of the govmnt subsidies but thought that govmnt is too big and that people should fend for themselves.
with hypocrisy and brains like that Obama is screwed, and so are the rest of the normal, level headed, non rich people.
was listening to a radio show today and a kentucky farmer was saying that yes he took advantage of the govmnt subsidies but thought that govmnt is too big and that people should fend for themselves.
with hypocrisy and brains like that Obama is screwed, and so are the rest of the normal, level headed, non rich people.
mittens hints at Obama not being born in the usa yet again. Douche.
Born in the Cayman islands, for tax reasons obviously
Obama should mention during his next speech how he's not holding bank accounts outside the US and eight figure IRA accounts.
TBF, we'd all do that if we were rich enough.
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