US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012
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When will we start seeing Presidential debates and what have you?
In september
Edit: I was wrong:
October 3, 2012 Air Time TBD
Location: University of Denver in Denver, Colorado
Sponsor: Commission on Presidential Debates
Participants: President Obama and the GOP Presidential nominee
October 11, 2012
Vice Presidential Air Time TBD
Location: Centre College in Danville, Kentucky
Sponsor: Commission on Presidential Debates
Participants: Vice President Biden and the GOP Vice Presidential nominee
October 16, 2012 Air Time TBD
Location: Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York
Sponsor: Commission on Presidential Debates
Participants: President Obama and the GOP Presidential nominee
October 22, 2012 Air Time TBD
Location: Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida
Sponsor: Commission on Presidential Debates
Participants: President Obama and the GOP Presidential nominee
Dawn breaks at last over Planet Raoul
It will be closer than 2008...at worst.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Here are states Romney will Not win
Wisconsin 10
Michigan 16
Ohio 18
N Hampshire 4
Nevada 6
Virginia 13
That gives Obama 288. He only needs 270.
This is the worst scenario for Obama.
With stopping Rick Scott's purge in Florida, Obama has a better than average chance of winning that state. imo Obama will also win Colorado and Iowa.
If Obama loses any of Wisconsin, Ohio or Michigan, it means Romney will win in a landslide...because all the other states I mentioned will go his way.
Probability? Very slim at best.
Nah. It 'wont' be close...but Obama will not get the landslide he got in 2008...because he will not win either Missouri or Indiana. He may lose North Carolina.
Traditionally right leaning states and Nevada has a mormon population. Obama shouldnt take anything for granted. If he switches his focus away from only the economy he will do fine. He needs to focus more on Romneys Massachussets economic record which was piss poor and also the winding down of the wars.
I don't think Romney will win Nevada, as Obama has a decent lead there and demographics are clumping up in the greater Vegas area, which suggests a more Democratic lean than if more of the population were in the rural areas.
Romney does appear to be making progress in Wisconsin and Michigan but its going to be an uphill struggle for him to maintain that once Obama makes a few campaign stops there.
Romney does appear to be making progress in Wisconsin and Michigan but its going to be an uphill struggle for him to maintain that once Obama makes a few campaign stops there.
Hope you are right Raoul but time will tell.
The Obamacare decision is fast approaching - it will be announced either next Monday or next Thursday. This decision could go a long way to deciding the election.
my thoughts are that whatever happens, it does not affect the elections in a big way.
If the act stands, he will strengthen it in his second term. If it fails, he will use it to run against a Republican congress that wants to take away all the benefits it offers....expand Medicare through budget reconciliation.
If people were to put it in percentages, what is the likelihood in their opinion of the act:
Standing in its entirety -
Shot down in its entirety -
Parts standing, parts shot down -
Standing in its entirety -
Shot down in its entirety -
Parts standing, parts shot down -
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html
no wonder the GOP are trying to purge the voter rolls in Florida.
no wonder the GOP are trying to purge the voter rolls in Florida.
Did you see the new Bloomberg poll ? Obama leading by 13 percent....
Yes. Must be an outlier though.
But Obama has to be at least 2 points ahead. What it will boil down to is, what is Romney really offering? In reality it is George Bush...except on steroids.
This... with the subliminal GOP/TP message of, "can't have that black man running things."
More bullets with Romney's name on it: http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...obs-overseas/2012/06/21/gJQAsD9ptV_story.html
Basically he is a great investor but it doesn't necessarily mean its great for the US general population. When will the people learn?
Basically he is a great investor but it doesn't necessarily mean its great for the US general population. When will the people learn?
538 dealt with that outlier
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/20/outlier-polls-are-no-substitute-for-news/
I can't get my head around American Politics. Even though Obama is (thankfully) very likely to win, 538 still estimates that Romney will get 48.5% of the popular vote. That means as close to half as makes little difference of the American population thinks Mitt fecking Romney should be the next president of the USA, despite everything we know about him.
They're idiots. I can't be nice about this. They're bloody idiots.
They're idiots. I can't be nice about this. They're bloody idiots.
If his Gubernatorial record is any indication, he would be quite a pragmatic (by American standards) President. Not very different from Obama one quite a few issues. He's obviously pounding the pavement hard for conservative votes up until now, but more than a few liberal friends I know think a Romney Presidency wouldn't be much of a step down from Obama. I happen to disagree with them, because of some critical issues (Supreme Court nominees, Iran policy etc) that are on the horizon.
What did you make of his piece ? If anything, the polling company that Bloomberg commissioned were quite experienced. Even if it was an outlier, there was nothing that I saw in the methodology that suggested it was incorrect. I don't believe Obama has a 13% lead over Romney though, as two other similarly recent polls have Romney ahead. I'd say Obama has a slight lead at the national level and a comparably slight lead in most swing states. Romney has oddly pulled even in Michigan and Wisconsin, but then again Obama has managed to creep back in Florida and is leading in New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado, as well as in Virginia.
the Supreme Court nominees is what matters.
If we get rid of the conservatives there, we can flip all the laws that side with the wealthy and bring back the power to ordinary people.
But I still would dread a Romney presidency. Its because at heart...the guy has no heart. He only cares about himself and his family...oh and his Mormon church. He wants to be president...thats it. He has no real life experience. He cannot understand nor cares about what the average person is about.
The jokes about what he did to his dog for me is an insight into him. For him it was a functional thing to put that dog on the roof and get it to the destination. He is empty inside.
His success at Bain does not take a lot of intellect. It takes ruthlessness. There are many like him out there...He is not unique. But such people do not belong anywhere near the presidency.
So I will disagree that he will be no different than Obama....he will be very different in fact.
In fact the latest AP and Pew polls have the President a few points ahead.
Romney will not win Wisconsin or Michigan. I would say Obama will squeek out a win in Florida too.
They are not idiots. These people see a 'way of life' disappearing right in front of their eyes and they are desperate to cling to anyone that promises them...it will not change.
I remember this woman standing up, waving her Birth Certificate and shouting she wanted her country back. Factually 'that country' went away in 1865...but to see the proof with her race about to become a minority and the first black President as only the beginning makes her and other like her fear...and thus hate.
Only with an electorate as stupid as the american is it possible to have a close contested election after 8 years of GWB, in another country the republicans would be out of power for at least 12 years. The American Empire is broke and declining and the republicans have no idea how to fix that.
Well one thing I have learned is that when it comes to US politics there are people on both sides who will vote the party line no matter what. So that accounts for a big part of the votes each side gets.
One of the things you will have to learn to deal with in life is that is that when it comes to politics there will be many varying opinions. In a way it is a good thing that neither party can count on a vast majority to constantly vote for them, at least in theory. Unfortunately when it comes to actual politicians themselves there is often not as much difference as we tend to think. Hence why even many liberals are not happy with Obama, but will vote for him because he is better than the alternative.
Using say the 1980 election as an example, Reagan massively swamped Carter in the electoral college. The win is usually viewed as a landslide. But when you look at the % of the popular vote he got it was only 50.7%, Carter got about 42%, with the rest going to John Anderson and various other candidates. So even then when many did not like the job Carter was doing, Reagan still could only get just a hair over 50% if the popular vote.
In both Clinton wins he could not even get 50% of the popular vote.
You get used to it.
American culture is usually difficult for outsiders to fully grasp. There are still fierce strains of individualism in large swaths of the population, particularly non-Urban areas in the west and the south. This looks like sheer stupidity to most outsiders, but is truly woven into cultural norms in large chunks of the country.
I know that urban americans are quite diferent from rural bible belt rednecks, but in the last decade the level of antagonism and vitriol is astounding, it's a shame, the US used to be my favourite country after my own. Now those countries are Denmark, Norway and Holland, or as republicans call them: Socialist Hellholes.
Hey, we have bible thumpers too. We even have a bible belt. Of course, they're probably closer to socialists than Republicans.
In 2000 as we headed towards election day I got a T-Shirt that was black, and in red white and blue had the word VOTE on the front of it. No Vote for this guy or that guy, or this party or that party. Just VOTE. The shirt actually upset many people who wanted to know who I was backing, who am I trying to tell people to vote for, when I explained I was just urging people to vote some got quite upset. They could not fathom that I would not be pushing one party over the other, especially that I was not publically backing their party.
It was very odd the reaction I got from some of these people.
It was very odd the reaction I got from some of these people.
It's fairly clear that Obama will win the electoral-vote. States like Nevada, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, need to go Republican, and Romney is trailing by a fairly massive 8% in those states. They are NOT tight.
It's a real shame, but I feel that demographic change in certain states favour the democrats in general.
Not sure about the popular vote though, I think Romney could win that. But ultimately the popular vote doesn't matter.
It's a real shame, but I feel that demographic change in certain states favour the democrats in general.
Not sure about the popular vote though, I think Romney could win that. But ultimately the popular vote doesn't matter.
The last thing the US and the world needs right now is the republicans back in the white house, they still haven't rid the smell of stupid from the place. So this demographic change can only be good.
Yeah Romney's path to 270 is extremely difficult. He would have to win Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina - and still only wind up with 266. He basically has to win every significant battle ground state which will be difficult. If Romney does win the election, it will be because of superpac money where he spends far more than Obama does. Even so, he's going to have to push his national polling number up by about 5 percent in order to have a solid chance. Once Obama gets into full campaign mode, his number will probably start creeping up again.
it is inevitable that the demographic change will bring about a democratic majority in both houses within 6 years. The democrats will retain the presidency for a very long time. Yes. This is good...meaning much better than the current republican party. But that in itself will bring about different challenges. The key is education.
I think we will eventually realize we cannot go far without being united.
Is this just "that would be great", or is it really, actually likely to happen?
I think it depends on the republicans, if they remains in this path of bible thumping, creationism bulshit, xenophobia and right wing extremism then they will become a regional party, if they skewer back to the cente, then they have a chance to capture part of the new demographics.
No, it's not likely to happen. The Republicans used to talk like this in the eighties... and at least they'd won three elections in a row. During the Dubya years, Karl Rove also used to claim an endless Republican majority was nigh.
If the Republicans find themselves demographically squeezed, they will shift their positions. They like ideological purity, sure. But they like power more.
They shift positions all the time. Have a look at Ezra Klein's recent piece about Obamacare - a Republican idea publicly supported by many Republicans for two decades, which every single Republican in the Senate has now voted to declare unconstitutional.
America is a country founded on values like the pursuit of fortune, self-reliance, freedom from state tyranny, and religious faith. The idea that conservative political power is going away is a fantasy.
not likely...it will happen...unless the republicans move to the center. Now That does not seem likely at present.
its all demographics.
Non whites do not share anything with' conservative values'...lets just call it bigoted' white values'.
The republican party is a whites party...and please don't bring up the tokens. Its not just Hispanics...Asian are also increasing.
The current 'fever' will break when the reality sinks in for them.
simples.
you are talking about the GOP abandoning its base.
If they had the courage, they can do this.
Much too 'simples'
Hispanics are not a particularly natural liberal group. They're quite religious, for instance. Once the GOP comes round on immigration - as much of its elite did under Bush II - there's no particular reason to think they'll be excluded from the Hispanic vote for long.
Besides, if they win the Presidency and House in November, you'll have four years of the 'centre' being recalibrated even further to the right than it already is.
It's just a right-wing country. That may change one day, but I don't see it happening any time soon.
I think I came to the same conclusions as you.
Even the young Cubans are trending democrat..why? The religious argument does not hold water anymore. Younger Hispanics are getting assimilated into mainstream America which is about 'live and let live'. Yes. Bush II got more Hispanic votes...then they found out he did nothing for them. So why has the GOP moved further right? Because that is the only way it can hold on to its whites base...which is getting smaller.
Whether a country is right or left wing depends on what the majority is.
The conservatives can only get and hold on to Hispanic votes if they abandon their 'belief' that Hispanics all are stealing their jobs and blacks are all on welfare.
They have been brainwashed into thinking that their lack of opportunity is not because of these 'talking points' but because they believe crap like 'trickle down economics'....thats why they buy into the Ryan budget....which if anyone bothers looking into is scary. Heck even the corrupt Catholic Bishops had to give lip service to saying it would hurt the poor.
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