Yeah Romney's path to 270 is extremely difficult. He would have to win Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina - and still only wind up with 266. He basically has to win every significant battle ground state which will be difficult. If Romney does win the election, it will be because of superpac money where he spends far more than Obama does. Even so, he's going to have to push his national polling number up by about 5 percent in order to have a solid chance. Once Obama gets into full campaign mode, his number will probably start creeping up again.
I completely agree with this assessment.
I agree that 270 is a bleak prospect, even with Ohio and Florida, he will not win the electoral-vote. Virginia seems to be solidly democratic right now that I doubt he will win that.
I think Romney's better bet is to try states like Michigan (some close polling), maybe Wisconsin, Colorado and new mexico. Rubio, if he's the VP pick, will give Romney Florida, and it might help with Arizona, Mexico and maybe Nevada. Romney needs to make headway in these states, before the Obama campaign focuses on what should be Republican states (Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri).