Agreed. With this bracket you won't have to deal with Real Madrid Plot Armor until at least the SF
UEFA Champions League - 29/01/25
- Thread starter RedRocket9908
- Start date
You really expected all dutch, belgian and french teams to pass while 4 out of 8 teams eliminated are from Spain, Italy and Germany?
While it was obvious from the start that some of the teams would have been eliminated I really didn't expect Club Brugge or all french teams to pass (with Lille in top8).
I think it was ok, the only problem I see is that 24 passing out of 36 is a bit too much, made worse by the fact that placing 9th or 24th is pratically the same.
It would have been more exciting if the playoff would have been a single match at the home of the better placed team, it would have made the position more important.
Fully agree. It's made the first round much more exciting! If they somehow reduced the amount of teams through to play offs and as you said, gave advantage to teams further up it can make it even better.
I kinda like this new format. A few changes would've been better though imo: indeed as mentioned above that 9-16 play at home in a single leg, but the draw is done at random so any "seeded" team can play any "non-seeded" team. And from then on the top 8 teams would only be "protected" in the Round of 16, with again random draws before each phase of the competition again. Don't really like that you already know which teams you have to go through on your path to the final beforehand.
I wouldn't mind the NBA play-in format for the play-offs. It could add some spice by urging the teams to finish higher instead of making calculations toward the end of the league phase.
How does that work?
It would be something like this: Two groups, Group A (9-16) and Group B (17-24), both with seeded/unseeded teams. Teams 9-12 face teams 13-16 at home, the same happens with teams 13-16 and 17-24. The four winners of Group A advance to the R16. The four losers of Group B are eliminated. The four losers of Group A face the four winners of Group B at home in a single leg.
You have the easiest path possible. (Among teams supposedly capable of winning the trophy). Statistics don’t lie, and they have you in top 3 to win it, based on the brackets.
The top 3 should become a top 4 tomorrow.. One team among Real/Bayern will get a statistical boost and jump close to you once they’ve picked Celtic and avoided City in the PO.
Excellent idea. That would be more exciting and less confusing.
So... they don't have the easiest path possible then?
Rodrygo plus left wing plus CL is an unstoppable combination
Among the easiest possible. For a team that didn’t make top 2… they could have drawn Bayern/City/Real/Celtic for the Ro 16, instead they got Milan/Juve/PSV/Feyenoord …
Yeah, but it's the same side of the draw where we have the potential play Bayern/City/Real/Atletico/Leverkusen on that side of the draw in the quarters if we manage to get past the likes of AC Milan, Juve, PSV or Feyenoord in the round of 16.
Whereas the other side of the draw that Liverpool & Barca are on, you'd have them as heavy favourites to get through against the teams on that side of the draw until at least the semi finals.
God forbid you actually play a good team in the QFs of the Champions League...
Milan and Juve are big names and sound like tough draws but both are struggling big time this season, PSV and Feyenoord are both nothing special either. I'd say most of the other teams are par for the course in the QFs, only Real would likely be a disappointment to be drawn against given their tendency to go through by any means in the competition.
Wow. It was just an observation from last night. I think in terms of the traditional big names we are on the tougher side of the draw. Of course some of them are off form, and teams like Atalanta could be tougher than the likes of Juve or Milan (as you found out last year).
I mentioned in a previous post the way the teams landed it's showed the benefit of finishing in the top 2, for which you need to be applauded for.
It's no more deep than that mate.
Not really though. With this new system, Pot 1 teams have two games vs Pot 1 teams, City dropped 5 points vs Inter and PSG. It does feel that way, but City would have made it through.
Another way to look at this: the cutoff was 11 points after 8 games (1.375ppg). Last season it was 8 after 6 (1.333ppg). So statistically it was just as hard or even slightly harder to go through than last season, and that's still only getting you into playoffs now, not directly into R16 like last season.
So City's form would have meant getting through on goal difference alone in both the old and new system, but the new system punishes them with an extra round.
Bayern - Celtic
I still love you Thiago <3
I still love you Thiago <3
feck sake, city draw real.
One less difficult team to stop Liverpool now.
One less difficult team to stop Liverpool now.
City Real.
City Fake actually.
With Real's record against good teams this season I suspect City will go through, even with all their struggles this season. I expect Guardiola to work out all of his frustrations on a masterplan to feast on Madrid's shaky defense.
Or overthink it.
Madrid in knockout-football is something else. Need a huge result at home
Real Madrid need to cover the right back hole with Valverde and play with the best couple of CBs available, which includes Rudiger and one out of Tchouameni, Asencio or Alaba. Tchouameni would be questioned for not being an specialist at CB, Asencio for his lack of experience and Alaba for his lack of form. Knowing Ancelotti as I do, he will give priority to Tchouameni given his combination of hierarchy and physical shape.
I haven't been following City this season but from what I've read they are very fragile defensively. With Mbappe recovered we have enough firepower to damage them, but we need to improve our defense as well to go through.
Also, Vinicius, Mbappe, Rodrygo, Bellingham at the same time looks very out of balance to me, unless they all work like beasts off the ball, and still I am not sure I would start all of them at the same time.
I haven't been following City this season but from what I've read they are very fragile defensively. With Mbappe recovered we have enough firepower to damage them, but we need to improve our defense as well to go through.
Also, Vinicius, Mbappe, Rodrygo, Bellingham at the same time looks very out of balance to me, unless they all work like beasts off the ball, and still I am not sure I would start all of them at the same time.
So has the format worked then given a relatively speaking...massive side is going to be knocked out before the last 16?
I think it has worked, City were the third worst team to qualify, so having a tough draw seems right. It's a bit unlucky for Madrid but again, you'd expect them to be finishing higher in the league. The incentive of finishing in the top 8 or as high as possible is clear to see which is what the format strives for. It's meant that even if you've qualified the final games still mean something.
That record is indeed bad but it was severely impacted by Mbappe's negative contribution to the team.
The situation has now reversed.
Admittedly, there are still problems to be taken care of. I just hope Ancelotti can minimize them the following 2 weeks.
As long as Modric doesn’t start the away leg I’d expect Madrid to beat them
It's still too many games but it worked. Big teams like Real, Bayern, PSG or City having to play in the playoffs and risking playing each other in that round really should motivate every team to finish in the top 8. Made things much more interesting than these teams cruising to a boring second place group finish in a bad season before.
City defense is not rock solid either.
PSG vs Liverpool or PSG vs Barcelona
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid or Leverkusen
Juventus vs Arsenal or Inter
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid or Leverkusen
Juventus vs Arsenal or Inter
Obviously Dortmund will be favorites but I prefer to play Dortmund, who we beat 3-1 in the last CL rather than Atalanta. We don't do well against Italians. Just hope we get some players back to make it interesting. Atm we have Gyökeres, Morita, Pedro Gonçalves out. All clear starters that we desperately need.
We go through City, Patetico, the Arse and the Arseholes to set up a final against Leverkusen
Winner gets to coach Madrid next season
Winner gets to coach Madrid next season
I don’t understand the table.
Who will Liverpool play?
Brest/PSG or Monaco/Benfica
Who will Liverpool play?
Brest/PSG or Monaco/Benfica
There will be a draw to decide which of the couples they play
Not sure Juventus would beat PSV.
there will be another draw for Round of 16. teams that are at 9th to 24th battled out over 2 legs for the playoff for another 8 slots for the round of 16 . Although i would prefer top 16 teams qualified straight instead of this.
Ok thanks for that.
So they have to play Barcelona before the draw?
I'd have pegged those teams as being reasonably likely to be eliminated yes. Also, it's 4 from 12, not 8.
Germany and Italy had an extra qualifier each because of the coefficient thing, and neither are particularly strong leagues in 2025 anyway. Then when you look at the eliminated teams - Girona, RB Leipzig, Bologna and Stuttgart - it hardly screams "European pedigree".
Then you look at previous Champions Leagues:
2023-24 - United, Sevilla, Union Berlin and Newcastle all finished bottom of their groups, Milan dropped into the Europa League.
2022-23 - Atletico Madrid finished bottom of their group, Bayer Leverkusen, Barcelona, Sevilla and Juventus all dropped into the Europa League.
2021-22 - Milan and Woflsburg finished bottom of their group, RB Leipzig, Dortmund, Barcelona, Atalanta and Sevilla all dropped into the Europa League.
17 of 48 teams eliminated at the group stage were from the typical "big 4" nations.
As for the "all Dutch, Belgian and French" teams bit, also a chance there, considering only 12 went out and there's teams from Croatia, Serbia, Austria (two of them!), Czech Republic, Slovenia and Switzerland in there, as well as Shakhtar Donetsk who were playing their home games in Germany.
I think it's a crap, diluted format. However, it might be slightly better if it were 1-12 qualifying for the last 16, then 13-20 competing in the playoffs for the final 4 spots.