spinoza
Paz's ion
Intrade now has McCain ahead - 51%. Obama has come down quite sharply to 47%.
Interesting times.
Interesting times.
From The Times
September 12, 2008
Barack Obama the speechmaker is being rumbled
There is a yawning gulf between what the Democratic candidate says and how he has acted. That's why the race is so close
Gerard Baker
It's funny how the harder you look at something, the harder it can be to understand it. I can't recall a US presidential election that has attracted more attention. But neither can there have been a time when the world has watched what goes on in America with the nonplussed, horrified incomprehension it has now.
Travelling in Britain this week, I've been asked repeatedly by close followers of US politics if it can really be true that Barack Obama might not win. Thoughtful people cannot get their head around the idea that Mr Obama, exciting new pilot of change, supported by Joseph Biden, experienced navigator of the swamplands of Washington politics, could possibly be defeated.
They look upon John McCain and Sarah Palin and see something out of hag-ridden history: the wizened old warrior, obsessed with finding enemies in every corner of the globe, marching in lockstep with the crackpot, mooseburger-chomping mother from the wilds of Alaska, rifle in one hand, Bible in the other, smiting caribou and conventional science as she goes.
Two patronising explanations are adduced to explain why Americans are going wrong. The first is racism. I've dealt with this before and it has acquired no more merit. White supremacists haven't been big on Democratic candidates, whatever their colour, for a long time, and Mr Obama's race is as likely to generate enthusiasm among blacks and young voters as it is hostility among racists.
Background
* Middle-of-the-road Obama run over
* Barack Obama's Palin problem
* US election race descends into taunts
* Obama rattled as rivals steal limelight
In a similarly condescending account, those foolish saps are being conned into voting for Mr McCain because they like his running-mate. Her hockey-mom charm and storybook career appeals to their worst instincts. The race is boiling down to a beauty contest in which a former beauty queen is stealing the show. Believe this if it helps you come to terms with the possibility of a Democratic defeat. But there really are better explanations.
One is a simple political-cultural one. This election is a struggle between the followers of American exceptionalism and the supporters of global universalism. Democrats are more eager than ever to align the US with the rest of the Western world, especially Europe. This is true not just in terms of a commitment to multilateral diplomacy that would restore the United Nations to its rightful place as arbiter of international justice. It is also reflected in the type of place they'd like America to be - a country with higher taxes, more business regulation, a much larger welfare safety net and universal health insurance. The Republicans, who still believe America should follow the beat of its own drum, are pretty much against all of that.
You can argue the merits of each case. But let me try to explain to my fellow non-Americans why Mr Obama's problems go well beyond that. Even if you think that Americans should want to turn their country into a European-style system, there is a perfectly good reason that you might have grave doubts about Mr Obama.
The essential problem coming to light is a profound disconnect between the Barack Obama of the candidate's speeches, and the Barack Obama who has actually been in politics for the past decade or so.
Speechmaker Obama has built his campaign on the promise of reform, the need to change the culture of American political life, to take on the special interests that undermine government's effectiveness and erode trust in the system itself,
Politician Obama rose through a Chicago machine that is notoriously the most corrupt in the country. As David Freddoso writes in a brilliantly cogent and measured book, The Case Against Barack Obama, the angel of deliverance from the old politics functioned like an old-time Democratic pol in Illinois. He refused repeatedly to side with those lonely voices that sought to challenge the old corrupt ways of the ruling party.
Speechmaker Obama talks about an era of bipartisanship, He speaks powerfully about the destructive politics of red and blue states.
Politician Obama has toed his party's line more reliably than almost any other Democrat in US politics. He has a near-perfect record of voting with his side. He has the most solidly left-wing voting history in the Senate. His one act of bipartisanship, a transparency bill co-sponsored with a Republican senator, was backed by everybody on both sides of the aisle. He has never challenged his party's line on any issue of substance.
Speechmaker Obama talks a lot about finding ways to move beyond the bloody battlegrounds of the “culture wars” in America; the urgent need to establish consensus on the emotive issue of abortion.
Politician Obama's support for abortion rights is the most extreme of any Democratic senator. In the Illinois legislature he refused to join Democrats and Republicans in supporting a Bill that would require doctors to provide medical care for babies who survived abortions. No one in the Senate - not the arch feminist Hillary Clinton nor the superliberal Edward Kennedy - opposed this same humane measure.
Here's the real problem with Mr Obama: the jarring gap between his promises of change and his status quo performance. There are just too many contradictions between the eloquent poetry of the man's stirring rhetoric and the dull, familiar prose of his political record.
It's been remarked that the biggest difference between Americans and Europeans is religion: ignorant Americans cling to faith; enlightened Europeans long ago embraced the liberating power of reason. Yet here's an odd thing about this election. Europeans are asking Americans to take a leap of faith, to break the chains of empiricism and embrace the possibility of the imagination.
The fact is that a vote for Mr Obama demands uncritical subservience to the irrational, anti-empirical proposition that the past holds no clues about the future, that promise is wholly detached from experience. The second-greatest story ever told, perhaps.
Interesting article - I would be very interested in the American poster view of this article - especially those bits highlighted
Simple-minded article, for the reasons Spin states, also because it assumes most voters are aware of the details of Obama's voting record and its supposed incompatability with his rhetoric, and are judging him accordingly.
It's not patronising to tell the truth about large-scale voting patterns. Most people vote on a hunch, or from some prejudice, or for superficial reasons, or for tribalistic reasons. I'm the same: I will never vote for a Tory, I just could not bring myself to, even if rationally it got to the point when I should.
Also, to get to a position of power you have to compromise yourself. The journalist knows this, yet he points to Obama's pragmatic politicking as if there's something unusual about it. Of course you have to look at candidates' voting records to get a sense of them, but it's naive to think their records always capture their fundamental principles - or lack of principles.
This doesn't sound like ''change we can believe in''.
His healthcare policy is change you can believe in. It's fairly detailed, and would move America a big step towards universal healthcare.
Sure, he talks well, but he's got plans which you can assess. Something which is less easy to say for McCain.
A hawkish and occasionally combative Sarah Palin warned last night she might commit US troops to a war against Russia in defence of Georgia and Ukraine in her first interview since John McCain chose her as his running mate.
She said repeatedly she would not hesitate to use all options in an international crisis or resort to force against Islamist extremists.
In sometimes tense exchanges, Palin demonstrated a more bellicose posture towards Russia than the Bush administration during the conflict with Georgia. She also supported military action against Islamist extremists in Pakistan even without the support of the Islamabad government.
Seriously? A creationist? Someone who supports teaching creationism in science class?
Anti-abortion? That's a bit mild. She opposes abortion in cases of rape and incest, only allowing it when the life of the mother is threatened. That's not just anti-abortion, that's fairly extreme views even for someone who is opposed to abortion. Anyway, that's not even the issue.
If elected, McCain will be 72. Actuarial charts need only be consulted to note that he has a fair old chance of popping his clogs during his time as Commander in Chief, so Palin therefore comes under extra scrutiny.
Quite frankly, if someone thinks that Intelligent Design should be taught in science class, I would question their judgment.
We dont need another year of Republicans.
Obama!
Americans and McCain deserve each other.
Obama is too much of a smart, forward-thinking politician for such a thick country. ( No offense of course )
Obama makes a few nice speeches and all of you Euros want to give him a blow job. Cut the hagiography, please. He's a normal, everyday, self-absorbed, ambitious, self-centered political opportunist who, fortunately, is not George W. Bush. That's it. He has never walked on water, turned water to wine, healed the sick, raised the dead, or run in a political campaign where the corrupt Chicago Democratic machine didn't control the outcome. You bozos are treating him like he's the new Massiah, and Brian isn't even gone yet.
Blizzard of Lies
What it says, I’d argue, is that the Obama campaign is wrong to suggest that a McCain-Palin administration would just be a continuation of Bush-Cheney. If the way John McCain and Sarah Palin are campaigning is any indication, it would be much, much worse.
Obama makes a few nice speeches and all of you Euros want to give him a blow job. Cut the hagiography, please. He's a normal, everyday, self-absorbed, ambitious, self-centered political opportunist who, fortunately, is not George W. Bush. That's it. He has never walked on water, turned water to wine, healed the sick, raised the dead, or run in a political campaign where the corrupt Chicago Democratic machine didn't control the outcome. You bozos are treating him like he's the new Messiah, and Brian isn't even gone yet.
I'm amazed that being a good orator can be held against someone.
Never have there been truer words layed before us...
Here's to holding politicians to the flame of truth!
bollocks FB....who is the self centered candidate here? Country First?...he nominates a brainless joke....I mean the guy is not all that well for chrisake...and this bimbo could actually end up being President...she make Bush look like a genius.....
All four of the politicians on the slate are self-centered, comes with the territory. My point was that Obama hasn't really done much yet, but people on this site are treating him like the greatest statesman in the history of Western Civilization. Let's get the race for the White House back into perspective, Obama's not great, or even particularly good, but might be the least repugnant choice of a rather uninspired litter.
All four of the politicians on the slate are self-centered, comes with the territory. My point was that Obama hasn't really done much yet, but people on this site are treating him like the greatest statesman in the history of Western Civilization. Let's get the race for the White House back into perspective, Obama's not great, or even particularly good, but might be the least repugnant choice of a rather uninspired litter.
It would be an amazing howler by Democrats to lose this election. They really ought to have held Obama off for his turn in 4 or 8 years.
"Change we can believe in" is rhetoric. Reality is much more messy. Doesn't mean there will be no change, or that he has no integrity.
And that's not why he's he'll lose, if lose he does.
She’s Not Ready
While watching the Sarah Palin interview with Charlie Gibson Thursday night, and the coverage of the Palin phenomenon in general, I’ve gotten the scary feeling, for the first time in my life, that dimwittedness is not just on the march in the U.S., but that it might actually prevail.
How is it that this woman could have been selected to be the vice presidential candidate on a major party ticket? How is it that so much of the mainstream media has dropped all pretense of seriousness to hop aboard the bandwagon and go along for the giddy ride?
For those who haven’t noticed, we’re electing a president and vice president, not selecting a winner on “American Idol.”
Ms. Palin may be a perfectly competent and reasonably intelligent woman (however troubling her views on evolution and global warming may be), but she is not ready to be vice president.
With most candidates for high public office, the question is whether one agrees with them on the major issues of the day. With Ms. Palin, it’s not about agreeing or disagreeing. She doesn’t appear to understand some of the most important issues.
“Do you believe in the Bush doctrine?” Mr. Gibson asked during the interview. Ms. Palin looked like an unprepared student who wanted nothing so much as to escape this encounter with the school principal.
Clueless, she asked, “In what respect, Charlie?”
“Well, what do you interpret it to be?” said Mr. Gibson.
“His worldview?” asked Ms. Palin.
Later, in the spin zones of cable TV, commentators repeatedly made the point that there are probably very few voters — some specifically mentioned “hockey moms” — who could explain the Bush doctrine. But that’s exactly the reason we have such long and intense campaigns. You want to find the individuals who best understand these issues, who will address them in sophisticated and creative ways that enhance the well-being of the nation.
The Bush doctrine, which flung open the doors to the catastrophe in Iraq, was such a fundamental aspect of the administration’s foreign policy that it staggers the imagination that we could have someone no further than a whisper away from the White House who doesn’t even know what it is.
You can’t imagine that John McCain or Barack Obama or Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton or Joe Lieberman would not know what the Bush doctrine is. But Sarah Palin? Absolutely clueless.
Ms. Palin’s problem is not that she was mayor of a small town or has only been in the Alaska governor’s office a short while. Her problem (and now ours) is that she is not well versed on the critical matters confronting the country at one of the most crucial turning points in its history.
The economy is in a tailspin. The financial sector is lurching about on rubbery legs. We’re mired in self-defeating energy policies. We’re at war. And we are still vulnerable to the very real threat of international terrorism.
With all of that and more being the case, how can it be a good idea to set in motion the possibility that Americans might wake up one morning to find that Sarah Palin is president?
I feel for Ms. Palin’s son who has been shipped off to the war in Iraq. But at his deployment ceremony, which was on the same day as the Charlie Gibson interview, Sept. 11, she told the audience of soldiers that they would be fighting “the enemies who planned and carried out and rejoiced in the death of thousands of Americans.”
Was she deliberately falsifying history, or does she still not know that Iraq and Saddam Hussein had nothing to do with the Sept. 11 attacks?
To burnish the foreign policy credentials of a vice presidential candidate who never even had a passport until last year, the Republicans have been touting Alaska’s proximity to Russia. (Imagine the derisive laughter in conservative circles if the Democrats had tried such nonsense.) So Mr. Gibson asked Ms. Palin, “What insight into Russian actions, particularly in the last couple of weeks, does the proximity of the state give you?”
She said, “They’re our next-door neighbors. And you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska. From an island in Alaska.”
Mr. Gibson tried again. “But what insight does that give you,” he asked, “into what they’re doing in Georgia?”
John McCain, who is shameless about promoting himself as America’s ultimate patriot, put the best interests of the nation aside in making his incredibly reckless choice of a running mate. But there is a profound double standard in this country. The likes of John McCain and George W. Bush can do the craziest, most irresponsible things imaginable, and it only seems to help them politically.
You might be right that the Americans deserve such a president and the consequences if they let themselves blind by McCain and Palin. On the other hand, we Europeans suffer as well if the American economy is crumblingit may be a factor but in the end it will be something much worse. In these times with our economy crumbling the obvious choice is to go with the democrats. Obama has the plan but we dont hear about it because we are drowning in the smearing campaign for the republicans. He survived it against hillary but in the end he may not against the Republicans.
Along with the smears and the "way out" offered to fence sitting whites in this country (Palin) it is clear this race could be lost and if that happens we in this country deserve it.