Agree with all of that, and I almost added something very similar to the post you've quoted there, but my main point was already made.
Turkey
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Agree with all of that, and I almost added something very similar to the post you've quoted there, but my main point was already made.
@Silva think we might continue this some other time in another thread maybe, it's a bit too big for me to get into in full here at this time.
We bomb the shit out of other countries, creating conflicts that kill hundreds of thousands of people. Is that a Western value too?
The west will wake up one day soon to a Muslim Brotherhood army that is a member of Nato.
..or at least that's what Erdogan will try to do.
..or at least that's what Erdogan will try to do.
Turkey government seemed to have list of arrests prepared: EU's Hahn
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-eu-hahn-idUSKCN0ZY0EA
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-eu-hahn-idUSKCN0ZY0EA
This thought struck me too. How do you know which 6000 people to arrest? If this coup was genuine surely there would be a period of investigation and then arrests. There's some weight to the 'staged' argument here I think.
The one plausible explanation is that the Military command got the news of the impeding purges ahead of time and decided to preempt it with an action of their own. So the arrests were going to happen anyway (probably not all at once, but they knew which people they wanted) but now there appears to be justification for such an action.
The claim increasingly being made is that the coup was a preemptive attempt by a section of the military to forestall an impending government action against them - this would explain how the government seemed to know immediately which actors within the army were responsible, and it would explain the existence of these lists.
(Edit): what @The Firestarter said
Makes a lot more sense. Probably desperate people acting on a leak, aware it was their only chance, even if small. It would explain the strategic and tactit shortcomings of the coup, as someone pointed before. Still think a staged coup in these circumstances is a ridiculous idea, albeit not impossible. It's not like Erdogan was losing his power, so why the risks?
Yes. Now, as a result of the actions of a few worried mainly about their personal safety, they basically handed him absolute power on a plate, united the people behind him, and forced his political opposition to pick the carrots without even the need to be asked.
"Das war kein Coup, das war eine Kamikaze-Aktion"
The coup attempt seemed hasty, poorly planned, almost amateurish. "This was not a coup. It was the kamikaze action of a ruthless group that has acted more out of frustration than careful consideration," says the Istanbul political scientist Akin Ünver.
8,777 state officials arrested so far.
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausla...e-putschisten-a-1103389.html#ref=recom-plista
The coup attempt seemed hasty, poorly planned, almost amateurish. "This was not a coup. It was the kamikaze action of a ruthless group that has acted more out of frustration than careful consideration," says the Istanbul political scientist Akin Ünver.
8,777 state officials arrested so far.
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausla...e-putschisten-a-1103389.html#ref=recom-plista
The thing I don't get is why those two F-16 which were following Erdogan's airplane didn't shoot him down. If this was a desperate act, then the only thing which might have make the coup a bit successful (maybe the army then would have joined them) was to quickly eliminate Erdogan and arrest the other Turkish leaders (Prime minister Yildirim, ex president Gul, maybe Davotoglu and so on). And if they really had the chance to kill Erdogan, why they didn't take it?!
I don't know what to think about this. It needs to be said that the two organizers were quite important generals (ex commander of Turkish airforce, and the commander of second infantry, arguably the most decorated Turkish generals). Talk is that more than 70 generals/admirals (so 1/5 of them) have already being arrested, so it definitely doesn't seem to be just a few colonels making a coup. We are talking for many generals including some of the most important ones.
If Erdogan orchestrated this, how he could have managed to fool all of those people. If not, why the coup was so badly prepared? Adem Huduti (commander of second army) had already lead countless missions in Bosna, Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan. According to all reports he knew his business, but here his coup was eliminated within a couple of hours. Ozturk is also one of the most decorated generals and he definitely had some loyalties in Air Force, but somehow his airplanes did feck all bar spreading a bit of panic by bombing the parliament when no-one was there.
No idea what really happened there, and it doesn't help that the reports aren't very trustworthy.
I don't know what to think about this. It needs to be said that the two organizers were quite important generals (ex commander of Turkish airforce, and the commander of second infantry, arguably the most decorated Turkish generals). Talk is that more than 70 generals/admirals (so 1/5 of them) have already being arrested, so it definitely doesn't seem to be just a few colonels making a coup. We are talking for many generals including some of the most important ones.
If Erdogan orchestrated this, how he could have managed to fool all of those people. If not, why the coup was so badly prepared? Adem Huduti (commander of second army) had already lead countless missions in Bosna, Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan. According to all reports he knew his business, but here his coup was eliminated within a couple of hours. Ozturk is also one of the most decorated generals and he definitely had some loyalties in Air Force, but somehow his airplanes did feck all bar spreading a bit of panic by bombing the parliament when no-one was there.
No idea what really happened there, and it doesn't help that the reports aren't very trustworthy.
The air force was sided with the government? They even shot down a rebel gunship if I recall correctly.
That's a point the series of Tweets I posted a couple of pages back doesn't address, just says Erdogan 'somehow evaded' them.
Well you start with known coup participants then start arresting anyone who opposed you or you feel is "politically unreliable." It could be a good number of people being arrested are just targets of opportunity for Erdogan. He does not necessarily have to have faked the coup (though he could have), he just could be taking advantage of the situation to eliminate rivals and those he sees as enemies.
Those two planes apparently were from the coup side. Air Force was with Erdogan, but there were many airplanes and officers from Air Force which were on coup's side (likely Ozturk's fraction there).
Indeed, but that looks weird. A civil airplane evading two F-16s? How can that happen?
The tweets say that that it was a miracle or whatever that they didn't fire. Why so? Were they afraid of a civil war? If that was so, why they started a coup in the first place (killing/arresting Erdogan was the only way which might have give the coup some advantage, although most likely, it would have ended the same but without Erdogan). Were they agents of Erdogan in coup's side? If so, then it means some type of orchestration from Erdogan.
Similarly, how one of he most powerful armies in the world (were a fraction of it), get defeated by unarmed people and then they get beaten and stripped of weapons from civils? Were they serious on making the coup in the first place, or they went on it half-hearted?
There are so many questions and so many things which don't make much sense. I doubt that we will ever find those answers.
Even if true, you don't shoot down your president unless you are given a direct order. And even then you may decide not to do it. If they wanted him down they would have had it. F-16 vs Airliner, that's a Grenada.
I doubt that just murdering him was the plan. Way too risky/crazy. My guess is that they tried to force him down somewhere where they control the ground to arrest him. They just couldn´t mobilize enough support on the ground to make it happen.
When it became clear that the coup was going to fail and arresting Erdogan wasn't possible, why didn't they shoot him? The leaders are going anyway to get executed or get life imprisonments and Turkish prisons aren't very nice. At least in that way they would have achieved the goal of getting rid of Erdogan. Now instead, he's more powerful than ever.
Similarly, why they didn't cut electricity/internet/mobile phones network instead of just occupying a few TV stations? It doesn't make much sense to me.
If you are in a jet tailing that plane, and you get an order to shoot it down, would you do it on the spot or have a little thought? Maybe you start thinking , who do you want to be the next day: the traitor who murdered the president or the hero who refused to do it?
Regarding the bolded part, see Attempted Coup d'é·tat in Turkey. That bemuses me as well.
Decent and balanced comment
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/vie...07/17/Reflections-on-a-failed-Coup-D-tat.html
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/vie...07/17/Reflections-on-a-failed-Coup-D-tat.html
It'd have probably given the coup a far, far better chance of succeeding. For as long as Erdogan was free and able to broadcast his own views/status, the current government had someone to continue rallying behind and follow. If Erdogan had been killed, the Turkish government would've fallen into freefall; power grabs, uncertainty and chaos. The best way to destroy a ruling power, or to significantly weaken its power, is to eliminate the influential head. Killing him may have been crazy and perhaps inhumane, but it'd have helped the coup massively.
Erdogan could very well have staged this, but one thing to remember is that not everyone coup attempt in history has been a well oiled machine. There have been plenty of failures throughout history and usually those failures have played out as being poorly planned and/or executed, not having wide enough support to take all the important objectives, having people backing out/refusing to carry out the plan, etc. etc.
Indeed, when it comes to dictators like Erdogan, all it takes for the entire structure to fall is to get rid of the head.
Erdogan was too strong and dangerous to be kept alive, even in the case of the coup being successful.
I guess that they thought that it will be the same as in the previous coups, when not that much popular government were overruled. However, the world has walked from those regimes, and Erdogan is highly popular. The coup was always going to end this way as long as Erdogan was alive.
For what is worth - now looking at the events less enthusiastically - I think that it is better this way, then if they had killed Erdogan, which at worst case would have ended in a civil war, and in best case, with the army ruining democracy and being dictators themselves (Egypt, S. America etc), and without any guarantee that the next civil leader will be any better than Erdogan. Say what you want about him - and I dislike him as much as any - he has done very well in many areas and Turkey is significantly stronger and more influential than it has ever been in the last century. That doesn't compensate for the things he has done (the country with most arrested journos in the world, some Islamic laws and so on), but economy is the most important segment of life.
It also might have also started a civil war. I mean…come on. I am certainly not a supporter of Erdogan and don´t care about his well-being, but just shooting down his plane is batshit crazy. It would have been completely irresponsible and fortunately the military was willing to back down once things went side-ways. Erdogan might be terrible, but that doesn´t justify to plunge the whole country into chaos.
No real shock there, I can definitely see a government having a list of potential enemies (not saying it is right, just saying I can easily see it happening) and then taking advantage of a situation to use that list.
That's why the best thing to do was to organize a plane "accident" instead of a coup.
Edit: It's a Coup d'état.
He didn't stage it, and it failed because those behind it were Cemaat, hence why it had no support among the Kemalist factions. Ironically, Erdoğan is now reinstalling the secularists in the absence of his Islam rivals.
So it was a coup organized by the Gulenist who are islamist and Erdogan is now forced to camp with the secularist? Isn't it a lose-lose situation for Erdogan and Gülen?
Erdoğan gained by weakening the guy who is most determined to see him brought down, and Gülen was about to lose anyway. I wouldn't say he's 'forced to camp with the secularists', because I don't know to what extent he's opening the door for them. I imagine he's got his plans for the army.
Thanks. On an other subject, I heard that they arrested 7500 people, that's a bit much. I also heard that he was going to target unions, why?
The thing with this is, that while Erdogan is obviously paranoid, he is kind of right to be paranoid. The Gulenists are widely believed to have infiltrated vast swathes of Turkish civil institutions, and probably nobody outside the movement knows this better than Erdogan, as he has worked with the Gulenists in the past to purge and prosecute undesirables in the Ergenekon trials. This is an old quote from Fethullah Gulen I posted a bit further back in the thread:
"The existing system is still in power. Our friends who have positions in legislative and administrative bodies should learn its details and be vigilant all the time so that they can transform it and be more fruitful on behalf of Islam in order to carry out a nationwide restoration. However, they should wait until the conditions become more favorable. In other words, they should not come out too early."
Not unlike what Erdogan himself has been doing.
Cemaat's reach is a bit much for the AKP. As much as I loathe Erdoğan, I'm not at all surprised that he's going for the neck of the movement. They're simply embedded in too many facets of government. The unions? I haven't heard anything about that. Off the top of my head, it's an organization that can rally widespread support, so he wants to head it off while the coup attempt is still fresh in the memory and he feels justified in gutting opposition movements.
What would the Turkish people's reaction have been if, going with the hypothetical, Erdogan had moved against the army with a purge and they hadn't fought back?
If Erdoğan thought that a) he had the power to purge the (proper) military, or b) they wouldn't fight back, he'd have given up on politics a long time ago. As far as I'm concerned, if he wanted to try such a thing, tanks would be rolling in the streets again, and those men shaking their fists and shouting obscenities at soldiers on Friday wouldn't have the balls to even get close to soldiers actually defending themselves with intent.
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Drama Queen
Another old article here on the AKP-Gulen conflict, which includes this interesting tidbit:
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/01/akp-gulen-conflict-guide.html#ixzz4Encuzpdr
This battle between “an increasingly authoritarian political leadership and its ever more nervous rival,” as described by Al-Monitor columnist Yasemin Congar, took a new turn on Dec. 16, when Hakan Sukur, a football star turned parliamentarian, resigned from the AKP. Sukur, who heavily criticized the government upon resignation, is a proud follower of Gulen, and his entry into the parliament in 2011 was seen as a sign of a marriage between the movement and the party. His resignation signaled a divorce.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/01/akp-gulen-conflict-guide.html#ixzz4Encuzpdr
Lol, the irony is Erdogan is a Naqshbandi Sufi, the very antithesis of the Salafi school of thought.
Man, the gulenists are the real sharia... no one knows what they stand for, they're such an opaque and secretive cult. They could easily have turned Turkey into an Iran.
They're willing to hide and camouflage everything until they attain power. So no one knows what they believe. All we know is they believe ANYTHING their leader tells them
They're willing to hide and camouflage everything until they attain power. So no one knows what they believe. All we know is they believe ANYTHING their leader tells them