That's also crossed my mind on more than one occasion. It would make sense for everyone in the campaign to have assumed they had carte blanche, as even if he wasn't directly overseeing it, he's easily corrupt and shady enough to have not been perturbed by anything he did know.
Trump/Russia/SDNY investigation
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
That's also crossed my mind on more than one occasion. It would make sense for everyone in the campaign to have assumed they had carte blanche, as even if he wasn't directly overseeing it, he's easily corrupt and shady enough to have not been perturbed by anything he did know.
I have often thought that he's so thick to the point where if there was outright collusion involving him specifically we'd know of it directly by now, and I've seen people suggest the 'Hot Fuzz' hypothesis, wherein the seemingly complex processes which lead to Trump are basically red herrings and his hostility towards this is because he's pissed at the idea he didn't win the election genuinely.
But even if he's innocent of collusion, I do think he has some serious ties to Russia financially which mean he's operating in a manner that's lenient towards them (and other countries where he has financial ties) because he's wary of what would come of it if he took aggressive action against said countries. Plus there's the obstruction of justice insofar as he's clearly tried to stop the investigation at every point, interferes with it when he wants to on Twitter etc, and is just generally acting in a way that's reckless as they try to conduct the investigation.
I’ve also wondered about it. I think he’s up to up his arse in Russia financially, but he just seems too damn stupid for anyone to trust with a secret plan and him not to find a way to completely feck it up by now.
At this point, I think Mueller wants to comprehensively go after all lines of inquiry to make sure he has the absolutely strongest case possible as he begins to in unwind the investigation. He almost certainly already has Trump nailed on Obstruction of Justice for the Comey firing and subsequent bungled cover up attempt by way of the statement that was drafted up on Air Force 1 and the Lester Holt interview (among many other things). The real home run of course would be for Mueller to show that Trump is financially entangled with the Russians, which would imo, instantly illuminate the big light bulb as to why Trump is behaving as he has with Putin (never criticizing, always deflecting, no sanctions etc).
Certainly true but in terms of the public view, it's about collusion.
I don't doubt he has extremely shady ties to businessmen all around the world and Russia will have his balls in a vice.
I also don't doubt that he obstructed justice repeatedly
But if he goes down for financial crimes or obstruction of justice it'll be a civil war whereas if he goes down for collusion PLUS all the other bits that's the only way it's gonna sink in to people.
He won't go down for Collusion since it is not a crime to collude. He would go down for Conspiracy against the United States in that case.
Ah yeah, forgot about the legality side.
But it speaks to the point, his base won't accept it regardless but they'll be up in arms if he isn't taken down for collusion/conspiracy against the US.
My opinion is that he wouldn't know the finer details of the plans but that he was explicitly aware that in exchange for helping Russia where he could, they'd help him with the election. End of the day, I don't think he actually wanted or expected to be elected. That was a surprise and it made the bill he owed Putin considerably higher than any of them thought.
I'm confident he knew of the plans at a high level though. Otherwise he wouldn't be so completely dug in about not badmouthing Russia or Putin in any way. Come on, this is the same guy who will tear down everyone in his administration on Twitter before breakfast. He's given Putin and Russia the same treatment he's otherwise reserved for his family - unwavering and unquestioning support. Their ties run deep and he knows it.
In all honesty, his base is so brainwashed that I doubt they will take any charge seriously. What matters of course is Mueller and whatever he brings to the table. If anything implicates Trump then he will be finished - either by way of impeachment or non-electability.
You actually think that? They will stage a huge protest if Trump is charged. I am willing to bet on that.
Skaadden is a very big law firm in the USA. This should have some reverberation
But wait...I thought he didn't want to be tough on the Russians because he was keen on improved relations with them?
Since the big indictment dropped, I've been thinking about this specifically. I wonder now how much of the over-the-top, crazed support was organic and how much was driven by the Russian interference. I don't doubt he has considerable support among the crazies and that they would be willing to take any means necessary to support him. *BUT* I do wonder if we're not overestimating just how many people would back him to such an extent. I think the last year has shown us the fervent support is on the anti-Trump side and I don't know that an indictment by Mueller would do a whole lot to energize the somewhat more reasonable portion of the GOP.
Other than the occasional fringe right wing demonstrations, Republican voters aren’t really the protesting type, let alone stage massive protests. Remember, they are the ones who “go to work” so they wouldn’t have time. All they would do is bitch loudly.
They dont have a reason to when everything is going their way.
"The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command."
What major protest have Republican voters conducted in the last 50-60 years? In the time since then, there were sure to be many things that didn’t go their way.
Oh they’ll protest regardless but given how the left has bleated on about collusion, if they don’t charge him with (conspiracy against the US in other words) and bring him down on obstruction or money laundering/other financial crimes I think there’ll be an armed uprising.
Mueller has to nail him for everything with full proof otherwise blood will be spilt.
Was that really a major thing? I’ll have to check again but those were fringe supporters, no?
Ain't gonna be no armed uprising. There'll be more isolated acts of fcukery by the fringe tho.
I doubt the right will be particularly animated about Trump leaving since they will still have Pence to fall back on. The Trump fever will break at some point, even for his most strident fanboys, at which point a sense of normalcy will be restored. Its the Republican operatives who have thrown their credibility onto the Trump train and not jumped off at the right point who will be affected the most.
For sure that's the best proxy. But does what brought the Tea Party about really apply in the case of Trump? I think the personal grievances people had, and how that was co-opted by the likes of the Kochs, Mercers, and Trump himself, wouldn't necessarily be stirred among the same people if it came down to judging an indictment/impeachment.
End of the day - people would ask themselves, is Donald Trump worth fighting for? I have to think the answer to that is 'no' for most. Their reasoning would be that the rest of their favorite targets would still be in place to fight against and things would probably just be a lot less messy with him gone. Someone like Pence running the show with a GOP Congress is an establishment dream so I'm not sure he'd get too much backing from those types if Mueller produces a thorough, well-documented case.
And as for things returning to normal once he's gone. That remains to be seen... Also depends on your idea of normal.
You mean in terms of hate crime? I think if someone like Biden or Sanders come in, then they will take a harder stance on it but it wont fully go away ever.
Presumably they're not going to the trouble of charging people of lying to the FBI for trivial matters or plausibly honest mistakes. I know technically lying to a federal agent is a crime but can't imagine they're going with 'You said you didn't meet him until Thursday but we've evidence the meeting took place on Wednesday' stuff.
If someone said Obama was tougher on white people than trump he would try to convince other wise
Another one bites the dust
I think flipping Manafort is the key to Mueller now considering how hard he is going after anyone in his orbit.
I really don't think Manafort is part of the tactic to bring down Trump. Manafort is a big scalp himself with serious crimes. I just don't think Mueller will be expecting him to flip on Trump and nor do I think Mueller is blinkered towards Trump either.
That could be, but I doubt Mueller would exert this much pressure on someone like Manafort without needing him to testify against a bigger fish.
Is it pressure on him to flip or is it just building a solid case against him?
I know it makes sense that he’s want him to flip and I don’t doubt that they’d be open to a deal if he promised key information but I think the main thing now is building an open shut case against him.
I actually think the CIA would be more interested in flipping him than Mueller.
Manafort is not a big fish in the Russia case imo. His interests were pro-Yanukovich in Ukraine, who was of course tied to Russia, but I wouldn't think that is central to Mueller's interest here. Muelller's primary intererst is to work in concentric circles by flipping everyone leading to Trump so that they are prepared to testify against him. He wants to nail the biggest fish possible.
I'd have Manafort in that 2nd circle, with Trump or Pence in the bullseye. Also in that 2nd circle would be Flynn, Kushner, and Jr. 2 down, 2 to go.
The rest of the gang - Sessions, Bannon, Conway, Priebus, Hicks, Roger Stone - would probably also be in that circle of hell as well. The outer circle are all the other clingers-on who helped along the way, including Page, Papadopolous, Gates, etc.
Do you think he operates like that? Everything I’ve read about Mueller says that he’s a straight shooter, methodical and follows the law to the letter.
If he’s targeting Trump, then Trump is right, it’s a witch hunt. The only way I’m completely comfortable with him targeting Trump is if he already has enough evidence to charge him with something and he wants to build a watertight case.