Is that true? I always find it best to back the strongest defense when it comes to title challengers.
The stat I have is from an article in 2017:
Since 1995/96, the average champions have ranked 1.45 out of 20 teams for their goals scored, compared to an average rank of 2.41 for goals conceded. In total, 14 out of 22 champions have had the strongest attack during the respective season - but only nine have had the best defence.
Then looking at the title winners from 2018 on:
18/19 - City- 1st for attack, 2nd for defence.
19/20 - Liverpool - 2nd for attack, 1st for defence.
20/21 - City - 1st for attack, 1st for defence.
So the balance skews towards attack overall.
Ferguson in particular having bucked the idea that defence wins you titles on a few occasions:
Manchester United only had the seventh best defence when they won the title in 1996/97, shipping 44 goals - Blackburn conceded fewer and finished in 13th place.
And Fergie continued in the same vein, having only the fourth best defence in 1998/99, the sixth best in 1999/00 and fifth best in 2012/13. In each of those title-winning seasons, United scored more goals than any other team.
Also think it's slightly interesting to see where Liverpool thus far this season compare with the 19/20 side in terms of actual goals and xG.
19/20 actual goals: 2nd for attack, 1st for defence.
19/20 xG: 2nd for attack, 5th for defence.
21/22 actual goals: 1st for attack, 4th for defence.
21/22 xG: 1st for attack, 3rd for defence.
If anything I would possibly argue that Liverpool are
more likely to win the league with the way ye're currently playing. Though that's a big possibly.