Top 4 race 2016/17

Sandikan said:
It's not so much people saying woooo we've come 4th, it's the fact it can be a springboard to progress.
For us it also means gaining the full Adidas contract.
Click to expand...
Springboard to what? We finished 4th in LVG first season and finished 5th the season after. Chelsea finished last season 10th and they are 13 points infront of us after 14 games.

4th this season is all about getting money from Adidas and from other incomes related to CL football but ATM money is not a problem. We spend a lot season after season with no visible results. People and especially players and our managers are forgeting that we need to aspire to be 1st every season, 4th doesn't count. We have so much money because we were the best team in the league almost every season. We need to come back to challenge for a title season after season winning it most times. If we will not do that we will soon have no money to support wages our players and manager demand.

Few years ago we laughed at Arsenal who always finished fourth but they were challenging for a title almost every season. Now we for the 4th season in a row aspire for the top 4 in december and we missed top 4 in 2 of our last 3 seasons.

To conclude if we are talking serious I can't ever imagine Fergie talking that his team is playing well when his team would be 13 points from the 1st placed. And a team who is payed more than any other and a team which is the most expensive team ever to be assembled.
 
Jerch said:
Springboard to what? We finished 4th in LVG first season and finished 5th the season after. Chelsea finished last season 10th and they are 13 points infront of us after 14 games.

4th this season is all about getting money from Adidas and from other incomes related to CL football but ATM money is not a problem. We spend a lot season after season with no visible results. People and especially players and our managers are forgeting that we need to aspire to be 1st every season, 4th doesn't count. We have so much money because we were the best team in the league almost every season. We need to come back to challenge for a title season after season winning it most times. If we will not do that we will soon have no money to support wages our players and manager demand.

Few years ago we laughed at Arsenal who always finished fourth but they were challenging for a title almost every season. Now we for the 4th season in a row aspire for the top 4 in december and we missed top 4 in 2 of our last 3 seasons.

To conclude if we are talking serious I can't ever imagine Fergie talking that his team is playing well when his team would be 13 points from the 1st placed. And a team who is payed more than any other and a team which is the most expensive team ever to be assembled.
Click to expand...
The problem is you're talking in the position of a established SAF's typical team, not a new team stuck in endless transition loop. The damage since SAF's retirement has been done and it has set us back for years of rebuilding. Seems like when we patch a problem another one pop up. Had Mourinho succeeded SAF and made this kind of statement I would want him out by now. Different circumstances, different approach.
 
Janson said:
One or two of the top 5 will inevitably drop of sooner or later. It could be anyone of City, Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool. If we do start getting the results, and everything points to us getting better and better, then we could get to 4th.

We're only into a third of the season, alot can still change. But the onus is on us to take the opportunity if it comes.


It does look like it now but alot can change during the season.
Click to expand...
But I don't think there's any evidence that United will necessarily be better than those they're chasing. Yes improvements are happening but that's been needed to match the top 4 rather than be better. Significant improvement is needed to overcome the points deficit.
 
What are the stats on a team outside the top 4 after 14 matchdays being in the top 4 after the last match? (In the last 15 years for example)
 
VorZakone said:
What are the stats on a team outside the top 4 after 14 matchdays being in the top 4 after the last match? (In the last 15 years for example)
Click to expand...
mate, it aint gonna happen ... let that expectation go and you'll feel a whole lot better!
 
Leftback99 said:
You can filter the league by season and match days here:
https://www.premierleague.com/tables?co=1&se=22&mw=1-14&ha=-1
I've not looked but I doubt anyone has come back from a 9 point deficit after 14 games to finish in the top 4.
Click to expand...
For 15 years, no outside top 4 team overcome the 9 point deficit at matchday 14, to make top 4 at the end of season. However, we did overcome 9 point deficit from 5th place after matchday 14, to become champion in 2002/2003 season at the end of the season with 5 point cushion!

9+5 = 14 -13 from leader = +1. So either we'll become champion or we won't make top 4 this season :wenger:
 
Last edited:
This simulation, based on a model from 11tegen11, really hits home how far we're away from a top four spot at the moment:



It places our chances at two percent. While the accuracy and reliability of the model can certainly be debated, the fact that us getting a top four finish from here would be absolutely sensational can't.
 
So as of typing City are 4-1 down with 5 mins to go. Barring a comeback of legendary status, they've lost.

This means if United can actually win tomorrow, we'll be 6 points behind. Still a chance maybe?
 
Jed I. Knight said:
This simulation, based on a model from 11tegen11, really hits home how far we're away from a top four spot at the moment:



It places our chances at two percent. While the accuracy and reliability of the model can certainly be debated, the fact that us getting a top four finish from here would be absolutely sensational can't.
Click to expand...

It's because we are so far off points wise. In terms of actual xg differential and team rating (from 11tegen11), pretty sure we're rated as the 4th best side in the league. Just results not paying off.
 
bosnian_red said:
It's because we are so far off points wise. In terms of actual xg differential and team rating (from 11tegen11), pretty sure we're rated as the 4th best side in the league. Just results not paying off.
Click to expand...
I'm not entirely certain as to what factors are part of the simulation, but I think it's safe to say you're right that it leans heavily on results up until now. Haven't looked into whether xG-predicted points up until now is factored at all, but I would have expected us to get fourth more than two percent of the times in the simulation.

That said, I think our current standing is a result of how well we've performed so far, so I don't necessarily believe that the model is particularly off, and I maintain that us getting top four would be sensational.

As @LawCharltonBest says though, we have a bit off a lifeline to cling on to if we're able to beat Spurs tomorrow!
 
LawCharltonBest said:
So as of typing City are 4-1 down with 5 mins to go. Barring a comeback of legendary status, they've lost.

This means if United can actually win tomorrow, we'll be 6 points behind. Still a chance maybe?
Click to expand...
Feels like we've said similar pretty much every game for the past few weeks or so but blow the opportunities we're given.
 
Damien said:
Feels like we've said similar pretty much every game for the past few weeks or so but blow the opportunities we're given.
Click to expand...
I suppose the plus side is that regardless of the result tomorrow, we won't be more points off fourth than we already are!
 
Damien said:
Feels like we've said similar pretty much every game for the past few weeks or so but blow the opportunities we're given.
Click to expand...
True. But every time one of the teams above us drops points I'll be optimistic, even if United do end up never taking advantage.
 
Jed I. Knight said:
This simulation, based on a model from 11tegen11, really hits home how far we're away from a top four spot at the moment:



It places our chances at two percent. While the accuracy and reliability of the model can certainly be debated, the fact that us getting a top four finish from here would be absolutely sensational can't.
Click to expand...


What a load of rubbish that chart is. We'll do it easily.
 
bosnian_red said:
It's because we are so far off points wise. In terms of actual xg differential and team rating (from 11tegen11), pretty sure we're rated as the 4th best side in the league. Just results not paying off.
Click to expand...
Do you have a link as I don't see that on www.11tegen11.net?

As we all know, xg models differ but in the table below (which I had linked to on Friday https://www.redcafe.net/threads/2016-2017-title-race.420731/page-17#post-20157271) you are 6th in xGD; the xG data used are based on Michael Caley and 11tegen11 (always forget the dude's name). You are nevertheless underperforming xG-wise, but even if your goals scored and conceded were level with the xG model, you'd be 6th (likewise if you just look at xG; only RE: xGA you'd be better and basically level with Pool and City)

Obviously models are models and things can change.


Screen-Shot-2016-12-07-at-17.20.48.jpg
 
Last edited:
Jed I. Knight said:
I'm not entirely certain as to what factors are part of the simulation, but I think it's safe to say you're right that it leans heavily on results up until now. Haven't looked into whether xG-predicted points up until now is factored at all, but I would have expected us to get fourth more than two percent of the times in the simulation.
Click to expand...
Are you sure? Because I'm absolutely not, actually I'm quite certain it does not.

The whole idea behind these models is that you make it independent of actual points gained but just rely on stats. These stats do include goals in one way or another but no points. Some - like Michael Caley - factor in the strength of oppositions played and yet to come. So if you had impressive stats but played against relegation fodder, it would be reflected in the outcome. I wouldn't know for 11tegen11's or the FT's models.
 
Last edited:
For me today is VITAL if we win it would be massive for us not so much in terms of points but in terms of belief. If we have a good performance and win well I think it could galvanise us to win a few games.

We've palace on Wednesday who are very much beatable as well and if we win today I expect us to put Palace to the sword. However the likelyhood is that we will grind out another dismal draw and even further reduce our chances of breaking back into the top 4.

Put simply we have to win today its massive.
 
Crossie said:
Are you sure? Because I'm absolutely not, actually I'm quite certain it does not.

The whole idea behind these models are that you make it independent of actual points gained but just rely on stats. These stats do include goals in one way or another but no points. Some - like Michael Caley - factor in the strength of oppositions played and yet to come. So if you had impressive stats but played against relegation fodder, it would be reflected in the outcome. I wouldn't know for 11tegen11's or the FT's models.
Click to expand...
Interesting. I might be too deep into the Caf hive mind, as my statement was simply based on intuition. I'll try and see if I can dig up anything concrete on the model.
 
Interestingly, Clubelo.com which uses an entirely different approach - ELO values from recent results, reflecting also the strength of your opponents played - comes to a very similar projection compared to FT's model when it comes to winner, 5th and 6th. The order of top 2-4 is different though.
http://clubelo.com/ManUnited

Points projected to be gained after 38 match days, based on 14 match days:
1 Chelsea 80.6
2 Arsenal 78.6
3 Man City 74.9
4 Liverpool 73.9
5 Tottenham 69.2
6 Man United 59.8
 
Six points off fourth. Picking up form, and looking like a team who could go on a run. It's definitely nowhere near done. Mkhitaryan recovering quickly will be important with the Christmas fixture list, so let's hope that's relatively minor.
 
Mciahel Goodman said:
Six points off fourth. Picking up form, and looking like a team who could go on a run. It's definitely nowhere near done. Mkhitaryan recovering quickly will be important with the Christmas fixture list, so let's hope that's relatively minor.
Click to expand...
Still haven't won more than one league game in a row since August. Huge win today but we need to win the next four. Hope Mkhitaryan isn't out for long.
 
Mciahel Goodman said:
Six points off fourth. Picking up form, and looking like a team who could go on a run. It's definitely nowhere near done. Mkhitaryan recovering quickly will be important with the Christmas fixture list, so let's hope that's relatively minor.
Click to expand...
I don't feel confident at all that we're capable of stringing together any significant number of wins. But, if we somehow find the way to do it, it's obviously wide open in terms of top four, as the teams ahead of us aren't playing particularly well at the moment. The next couple of weeks are probably when we have to do it, if we are to get involved in the top four battle properly this season.
 
Big win today but we seriously need to win the rest of our games in 2016 and get a run of wins going. Palace A, WBA A, Middlesbrough H and Sunderland H to go. WBA is the most difficult here.

I still don't think we'll make it though, we've done too much damage.
 
Damien said:
Still haven't won more than one league game in a row since August. Huge win today but we need to win the next four. Hope Mkhitaryan isn't out for long.
Click to expand...
I know, but we've been solidly improving for the last month or so. It looks as if it's starting to come to fruition. We need Mkhitaryan playing at this level for us to do it, and other players picking up/retaining form.
 
Damien said:
Still haven't won more than one league game in a row since August. Huge win today but we need to win the next four. Hope Mkhitaryan isn't out for long.
Click to expand...
That's my way of looking at United. If you can go on a run of three or four wins I think you'll be right up there. I hope we don't get dragged back into it.
 
I need to find a way to stop thinking of all the stupid points we have dropped. We really should have around 5-6 more points.
 
6 points from 4th...not that far behind now. We've been playing well for a while now and making chances but we just dont score enough.

How did we only get 5 points from these games considering how we played :mad:
Stoke
Burnley
Arsenal
West Ham
Everton
 
Aguero being out gives us a glimmer. City need to drop points in this period as he usually helps them swat away the fodder. They have an easy home game next but then Arsenal who I hope can do us a big favor.
 
lol at City fans.

When they lost it is the refs fault. When Utd win it is a biased ref.

Theyre literally unbearable.
 
Klopper76 said:
That's my way of looking at United. If you can go on a run of three or four wins I think you'll be right up there. I hope we don't get dragged back into it.
Click to expand...
Yeah, need that consistency. I think you'll be fine. On the odd occasion you've dropped points you end up bouncing back next game.

iSgBVtG.png
 
I think Arsenal will do City in a couple weeks' time, especially with no Aguero/Fernandinho. Who knows what will happen. I've been confident the whole season we'll finish above Spurs.
 
It's over anyway. Even the likes of Sunderland managed to win a few games this season, doesn't mean much.
 
If we can get the ball rolling and get on a streak, we will have a very good chance of top 4.

I may be biased to some degree, and it may be hope more than expectation. But I would not be at all surprised if we managed to clinch a top 4 spot.

The key aspects being the defensive aspect of our game over the rest of the season. Our mentality in regards to retaining leads and chasing games. We have one of the best squads in the league, and we have been doing very well in terms of creating chances.

Mourinho finally seems to be finding his feet. We have been performing well in future games, despite not getting the results.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Invictus
You must log in or register to reply here.