The vaccines | vaxxed boosted unvaxxed? New poll

[McGrathsipan]

Had an elderly relative die of COVID around 10 days after his second vaccine shot a couple of weeks ago. Desperately unlucky. Caught it in a UK care home. Not sure which shot he got but I would guess Pfizer given the timing.

Condolences man. Sorry to hear it

 

[Traub]

So we’re rolling out the J&J vaccine from next week. I guess we’re effectively trialling the vaccine against this variant on a mass scale. I really hope it works, however we’re now through our second wave so I’m not sure we will see a significant difference anyway.

 

[jojojo]

So we’re rolling out the J&J vaccine from next week. I guess we’re effectively trialling the vaccine against this variant on a mass scale. I really hope it works, however we’re now through our second wave so I’m not sure we will see a significant difference anyway.

You're in South Africa, I guess?

It's a bold choice given that it hasn't reached the approval stage anywhere, but it's had lots of people in its trials and the safety profile looks good as well as the efficacy. The great news (assuming they're talking about significant volumes rather than just adding another 20,000 or something as a pre-rollout trial or something) is that it might also mean that the better resourced countries have started thinking about supporting vaccine rollout globally, based on urgency of need. They might not be doing it for humanitarian reasons, but at least it would mean they're showing an awareness that it does need global action.

 

[Traub]

You're in South Africa, I guess?

It's a bold choice given that it hasn't reached the approval stage anywhere, but it's had lots of people in its trials and the safety profile looks good as well as the efficacy. The great news (assuming they're talking about significant volumes rather than just adding another 20,000 or something as a pre-rollout trial or something) is that it might also mean that the better resourced countries have started thinking about supporting vaccine rollout globally, based on urgency of need. They might not be doing it for humanitarian reasons, but at least it would mean they're showing an awareness that it does need global action.

Yeah. It's all up in the air at the moment. The initial talk is to use the leftover vaccines from the J&J clinical trial that took place here, as these doses have already been approved. We really need to get the frontline workers vaccinated - apparently it has been absolutely hell in the hospitals, with this new variant anecdotally being more fatal.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

So we’re rolling out the J&J vaccine from next week. I guess we’re effectively trialling the vaccine against this variant on a mass scale. I really hope it works, however we’re now through our second wave so I’m not sure we will see a significant difference anyway.

What got your cases down? Strict lockdown? Is it possible you’ve had so many cases there’s a level of immunity in your community even before you start vaccinating?

You always wonder when you hear about increased fatality if the absolute number of cases is being seriously underestimated. Particularly when testing services get overwhelmed and asymptomatic cases aren’t getting picked up anymore.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

What got your cases down? Strict lockdown? Is it possible you’ve had so many cases there’s a level of immunity in your community even before you start vaccinating?

Serious question regarding this, we got through 2 waves without any lockdown, vaccinations levels are extremely low, and the levels have been coming down since 23rd December, and it appears pretty unanimous now that herd immunity didn't do it.
It is possible that only a certain percentage of your population are ever likely to be infected at one time, in one wave? As in the exponential growth must stop at some point because it's never likely to affect more than say 30% of your population in one wave?

It’s just that I put the first one mainly down to the summer, but this one coming down since December is baffling on that especially considering it’s an absolutely ice cold Winter, -18 when we woke up today.

Am I even making sense here with my question?

 

[Traub]

What got your cases down? Strict lockdown? Is it possible you’ve had so many cases there’s a level of immunity in your community even before you start vaccinating?

You always wonder when you hear about increased fatality if the absolute number of cases is being seriously underestimated. Particularly when testing services get overwhelmed and asymptomatic cases aren’t getting picked up anymore.

Definitely not a strict lockdown. We have had some lockdown, but there was no real restriction on movement or alcohol sales during the busy December period.

We had a super spreader event at the end of Nov/beginning of Dec - matric rage. Basically all teenagers finishing school (so age 18) go away and party for a week. Apparently several kids tested positive before the event and still went (well their parents let them go), and approximately 80-90% of people attending the event ended up testing positive. (more details on the event here: https://www.iol.co.za/mercury/news/...-isolate-de502022-63fe-4d35-877e-ab3232504e21).
These teenagers then came home and spread it to their families etc. But now here is the kicker: mid-Dec to Jan is the busiest holiday period of the year, and the economy couldn't not have people on holiday. So all these infected people went on holiday, and the observed cases rate and recorded deaths absolutely spiked.

However, as you say, the number of cases and deaths are seriously underestimated given capacity constraints. In particular, this is shown by the number of excess deaths we have had over the last year vs. the average number of deaths from 2014-2019 (see the graphs on this site for a sense of how much underreporting is going on: https://www.samrc.ac.za/reports/report-weekly-deaths-south-africa?bc=254). However, even the excess deaths are starting to fall dramatically. So, IMO, I think we have reached some level of herd immunity.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Serious question regarding this, we got through 2 waves without any lockdown, vaccinations levels are extremely low, and the levels have been coming down since 23rd December, and it appears pretty unanimous now that herd immunity didn't do it.
It is possible that only a certain percentage of your population are ever likely to be infected at one time, in one wave? As in the exponential growth must stop at some point because it's never likely to affect more than say 30% of your population in one wave?

It’s just that I put the first one mainly down to the summer, but this one coming down since December is baffling on that especially considering it’s an absolutely ice cold Winter, -18 when we woke up today.

Am I even making sense here with my question?

I do think there’s a little more to these waves winding down than a direct response to lockdown. But I also think change in behaviour is by far the most important factor. Sweden might not have had the same lockdown as everyone else but they definitely expected citizens to change their behaviour. And I’m sure they did.

Having said all that we don’t have to hit full herd immunity to take the edge off these waves. As more and more people get exposed from the cohorts most likely to get exposed then the virus finds it more and more difficult to really run amok. So that has to be a factor too. Where we will run into trouble is when the cohorts of people who’ve been keeping a low profile start to try and resume a more normal life, which provides the virus with more fresh meat.

So in a way, yeah, I agree.

 

[massi83]

So, IMO, I think we have reached some level of herd immunity.

Yeah, given your young population and number of excess deaths it seems almost certain to me.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Definitely not a strict lockdown. We have had some lockdown, but there was no real restriction on movement or alcohol sales during the busy December period.

We had a super spreader event at the end of Nov/beginning of Dec - matric rage. Basically all teenagers finishing school (so age 18) go away and party for a week. Apparently several kids tested positive before the event and still went (well their parents let them go), and approximately 80-90% of people attending the event ended up testing positive. (more details on the event here: https://www.iol.co.za/mercury/news/...-isolate-de502022-63fe-4d35-877e-ab3232504e21).
These teenagers then came home and spread it to their families etc. But now here is the kicker: mid-Dec to Jan is the busiest holiday period of the year, and the economy couldn't not have people on holiday. So all these infected people went on holiday, and the observed cases rate and recorded deaths absolutely spiked.

However, as you say, the number of cases and deaths are seriously underestimated given capacity constraints. In particular, this is shown by the number of excess deaths we have had over the last year vs. the average number of deaths from 2014-2019 (see the graphs on this site for a sense of how much underreporting is going on: https://www.samrc.ac.za/reports/report-weekly-deaths-south-africa?bc=254). However, even the excess deaths are starting to fall dramatically. So, IMO, I think we have reached some level of herd immunity.

Thanks. Interesting. Parents letting teenage kids go out partying aftee testing positive is fecking infuriating.

 

[Wibble]

I do think there’s a little more to these waves winding down than a direct response to lockdown.

Waves seem to have occurred in historical pandemics when there weren't treatments or vaccines, even if behaviour changes contributed (possibly combined with weather changes). Virus pandmic waves remind me of population waves in what we used to call r selected species. Maybe waves tend to be an inherent part of anything that grows in population size so fast? Just speculating.

It certainly doesn't look like waves are inevitable or that second waves are always worse than the first (assuming we can even define what a wave is). I still get a feeling that the more infectious (and novel) a virus is the greater the chance of multiple waves but I'm not basing that on sound scientific evidence.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-epidemic-waves/

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Waves seem to have occurred in historical pandemics when there weren't treatments or vaccines, even if behaviour changes contributed (possibly combined with weather changes). Virus pandmic waves remind me of population waves in what we used to call r selected species. Maybe waves tend to be an inherent part of anything that grows in population size so fast? Just speculating.

It certainly doesn't look like waves are inevitable or that second waves are always worse than the first (assuming we can even define what a wave is). I still get a feeling that the more infectious (and novel) a virus is the greater the chance of multiple waves but I'm not basing that on sound scientific evidence.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-epidemic-waves/

That’s an interesting read. Thanks. Basically I think we’ve messed with whatever sort of natural wave this would be expected to follow. Without the lockdowns you’d have seen one massive wave, which would subside due to natural immunity, followed by another smaller wave amongst people whose immunity waned quickly and/or somehow evaded infection the first time round. With maybe a few more after that, triggered by new variants with escape mutations.

So basically all these first, second and third wave of infections we’re seeing is that first massive waves being spread out over a much longer period of time than you would see in an era before all these public health measures. Apparently the long incubation period and disease course is the reason the whole thing is so horribly prolonged. If it behaved like a typical influenza virus the whole thing would be done and dusted by now.

 

[Wibble]

That’s an interesting read. Thanks. Basically I think we’ve messed with whatever sort of natural wave this would be expected to follow. Without the lockdowns you’d have seen one massive wave, which would subside due to natural immunity, followed by another smaller wave amongst people whose immunity waned quickly and/or somehow evaded infection the first time round. With maybe a few more after that, triggered by new variants with escape mutations.

So basically all these first, second and third wave of infections we’re seeing is that first massive waves being spread out over a much longer period of time than you would see in an era before all these public health measures. Apparently the long incubation period and disease course is the reason the whole thing is so horribly prolonged. If it behaved like a typical influenza virus the whole thing would be done and dusted by now.

Another factor mention in the context of historical pandemic waves was that deaths were usually the only semi-reliably recorded data unlike today so fatality rate data for historic pandemics is dodgy. I've seen suggestions that subsequent waves were exaggerated by people dying of other associated infections due to living poor/cramped living conditions during war or seasonal factors or a viral infection weakening you and then a bacteria one finishing you off. Or likely a combination of these and other things.

 

[horsechoker]

Iranian cleric says Covid-19 vaccine turns people gay

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...c-says-Covid-19-vaccine-turns-people-gay.html

More like covid-69

 

[NYAS]

Yeah just terrible luck that he caught it presumably before he could mount an effective immune response. Although it’s not luck that it was in the care home, that’s bad infection control. I debated posting about it but I think it shows that elederly people can’t immediately let their guard down after that second shot (not that he did, just wrong place, wrong time).

I’m sorry for your loss. I read that immunity after Pfizer is achieved about a week after the 2nd dose. You mentioned timing and that it was 10 days after; so is what I read not correct? How long after a Pfizer 2nd dose until someone would expect to have immunity?

 

[Wibble]

I’m sorry for your loss. I read that immunity after Pfizer is achieved about a week after the 2nd dose. You mentioned timing and that it was 10 days after; so is what I read not correct? How long after a Pfizer 2nd dose until someone would expect to have immunity?

Older people tend to build immunity more slowly than younger people.

 

[NYAS]

Older people tend to build immunity more slowly than younger people.

How many days post 2nd dose would you say that is? Obviously not everyone will be the same but just to have an approximate length of time. Parents have been vaccinated and I’ve got them in mind when I ask.

 

[Wibble]

How many days post 2nd dose would you say that is? Obviously not everyone will be the same but just to have an approximate length of time. Parents have been vaccinated and I’ve got them in mind when I ask.

I don't know I'm afraid. In general the older you are the slower you develop an immune reaction and produce antibodies. Fewer memory cells are produced in most cases so the reaction to future infection is also poorer and or slower. I'd guess that we don't know the full answer yet but data will start flowing in now that we are immunising so many older people.

@Pogue Mahone and other medical professionals might know more. Many of the vaccines seem to advise that the peak effectiveness isn't until 10-14 days after the second shot (when there are 2) so I'd assume that this would be longer the older you are. The other thing is that the vaccines aren't sterilising, so we think that people can still get infected but have reduced symptoms. The older you are the greater the risk that even the reduced symptoms are a serous risk (I'm guessing here so may well be wrong). So even with a vaccine I think we will need to be careful with distancing and mask wearing for quite some time until we get to herd immunity, assuming we can get there.

One thing that gives me hope is that at least where I live (Australia) flu vaccination has surged this year and juvenile vaccination levels have exceeded 95%.

 

[Tony Babangida]

I’m sorry for your loss. I read that immunity after Pfizer is achieved about a week after the 2nd dose. You mentioned timing and that it was 10 days after; so is what I read not correct? How long after a Pfizer 2nd dose until someone would expect to have immunity?

He will have caught it shortly after the second shot I think. It takes time to get sick and then deteriorate.

 

[NYAS]

I don't know I'm afraid. In general the older you are the slower you develop an immune reaction and produce antibodies. Fewer memory cells are produced in most cases so the reaction to future infection is also poorer and or slower. I'd guess that we don't know the full answer yet but data will start flowing in now that we are immunising so many older people.

@Pogue Mahone and other medical professionals might know more. Many of the vaccines seem to advise that the peak effectiveness isn't until 10-14 days after the second shot (when there are 2) so I'd assume that this would be longer the older you are. The other thing is that the vaccines aren't sterilising, so we think that people can still get infected but have reduced symptoms. The older you are the greater the risk that even the reduced symptoms are a serous risk (I'm guessing here so may well be wrong). So even with a vaccine I think we will need to be careful with distancing and mask wearing for quite some time until we get to herd immunity, assuming we can get there.

One thing that gives me hope is that at least where I live (Australia) flu vaccination has surged this year and juvenile vaccination levels have exceeded 95%.

Thanks Wibble.

He will have caught it shortly after the second shot I think. It takes time to get sick and then deteriorate.

Ah yeah of course. For some reason I read your initial post incorrectly.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

This is so infuriating.

 

[F-Red]

This is so infuriating.

Painful reading that. I don't think it'll be the last we hear of such stories that side of the pond.

 

[Phil]

This is so infuriating.

FFS.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

EMEA has started rolling review of another vaccine.

 

[Penna]

This is so infuriating.

He should be applauded, not admonished. He may have saved lives by doing what he did.

 

[2cents]

Just received word that a nurse who takes care of my ninety year old grand-aunt has convinced her that the vaccine will change her DNA. My aunt is now refusing it and trying to convince her sister to turn it down too. They are scheduled for their first shot next week.

 

[Pexbo]

Just received word that a nurse who takes care of my ninety year old grand-aunt has convinced her that the vaccine will change her DNA. My aunt is now refusing it and trying to convince her sister to turn it down too. They are scheduled for their first shot next week.

Absolutely maddening. You should sue that nurse.

 

[Wolverine]

Just received word that a nurse who takes care of my ninety year old grand-aunt has convinced her that the vaccine will change her DNA. My aunt is now refusing it and trying to convince her sister to turn it down too. They are scheduled for their first shot next week.

That's a shocker.
If this is in the UK then I'd consider making a complaint against that nurse (if she is a working/registered nurse) to the NMC
https://www.nmc.org.uk/concerns-nurses-midwives/make-a-referral/making-a-referral-to-us/

 

[Penna]

Just received word that a nurse who takes care of my ninety year old grand-aunt has convinced her that the vaccine will change her DNA. My aunt is now refusing it and trying to convince her sister to turn it down too. They are scheduled for their first shot next week.

Where is this nurse? Which country?

 

[2cents]

Where is this nurse? Which country?

Ireland.

 

[2cents]

That's a shocker.
If this is in the UK then I'd consider making a complaint against that nurse (if she is a working/registered nurse) to the NMC
https://www.nmc.org.uk/concerns-nurses-midwives/make-a-referral/making-a-referral-to-us/

In Ireland. We are looking into reporting her.

 

[Penna]

In Ireland. We are looking into reporting her.

Is she a qualified registered nurse, or a carer? If she's a carer, you'd need to report her to her employer.

 

[2cents]

Is she a qualified registered nurse, or a carer? If she's a carer, you'd need to report her to her employer.

Qualified registered nurse with the HSE is my current understanding.

 

[Carl]

Booked in for my vaccination at 5pm on Wednesday.

Received a text advising me to click the link and book, which I presumed to be a scam given I'm 36 and have no health conditions, but called my GP and they confirmed it was legit.

My parents are in their 60s and haven't had theirs yet, so not sure what's going on there.

 

[Wibble]

This is so infuriating.

WTF was he meant to do? Throw them away?

 

[golden_blunder]

In Ireland. We are looking into reporting her.

Doesn’t surprise me, we seem to have a lot of loonies

 

[golden_blunder]

This is so infuriating.

Did you read about that GP in Kildare who is refusing to vaccinate his patients because he doesn’t believe in it?

 

[Penna]

@2cents, here's the info you need to report that disgraceful nurse:

https://www.nmbi.ie/Complaints/Making-a-Complaint/Complaints-Process

It'll be a bit difficult as I assume there are no independent witnesses and of course, nothing in writing. However, your 90-year-old relative won't have come up with that nonsense on her own accord.

 

[2cents]

@2cents, here's the info you need to report that disgraceful nurse:

https://www.nmbi.ie/Complaints/Making-a-Complaint/Complaints-Process

It'll be a bit difficult as I assume there are no independent witnesses and of course, nothing in writing. However, your 90-year-old relative won't have come up with that nonsense on her own accord.

Thank you Penna, from what I’ve heard my aunt thinks the world of this nurse, but my cousin who is the closest to her is absolutely raging over it so I’ve sent that link on to her.

 

[Penna]

Thank you Penna, from what I’ve heard my aunt thinks the world of this nurse, but my cousin who is the closest to her is absolutely raging over it so I’ve sent that link on to her.

Good, I hope your cousin acts on it. The nurse might be kind to your aunt, but if she's saying this to her she's saying it to other people, too. Elderly people trust their carers, the carers have a duty to give proper information to them.