The vaccines | vaxxed boosted unvaxxed? New poll

[jojojo]

I don't think we'll see a standardised vaccine passport this year. We might well see countries or situations (like cruise ships and long haul flights) that use vaccine status as part of a test/quarantine/tracking strategy.

But rather than "no vaccine passport" meaning that anyone can go anywhere, I think it'll mean another year of massive travel disruption. New rules on tests, last minute quarantine rule changes, and a fair bit of panic as things wobble between half open and painfully hit and miss.

The price of tourism (foreign and internal) was very high for a lot of countries in 2020. Paying for 2 weeks in the sun with 20 weeks locked away from family and friends - or with the death of someone you love - that's too expensive. It's also inevitable that a lot of travel will take place, and it will all be about damage limitation, because the global problem hasn't been solved.

 

[Nytram Shakes]

BBC is running lots of "Ministers reassure public over Oxford vaccine posts" though they don't seem to be saying anything really other than don't worry the vaccines are great.
Am I wrong to interpret it as a bit like a man standing in front of a burning building saying there is nothing to see here?

 

[jojojo]

BBC is running lots of "Ministers reassure public over Oxford vaccine posts" though they don't seem to be saying anything really other than don't worry the vaccines are great.
Am I wrong to interpret it as a bit like a man standing in front of a burning building saying there is nothing to see here?

If it comes across as "worry about the next six months" then they'll be doing fine. A vaccine in the arm right now is worth a lot.

The drug companies will see it differently, they've a lot of testing to do and a new design to create. Some will find a covid strain cocktail easier to produce than others, some may even be able to combine a covid and flu booster in one jab. Chances are it'll be Q4 (at best) before we see them - there will be a lot more dead people by then if we don't use the available vaccines now. That means governments have to go with what they've got whether that's border controls, lockdowns, or last month's vaccine.

What it represents for all countries though is a reminder that unless case numbers fall globally, the virus may keep getting ahead of us.

 

[RoyH1]

Yes but you can get those almost on demand, i needed them for my trip to Nicaragua once and had set appointments for every single one within days.

If this one comes out before jabs are widely available for anyone who wants/needs one many young/youngish people who have already (the vast majority without any fuss) given up a large chunk of the prime of their lives are going to be penalized and have even more precious time stuck with nothing but a mere existence.

In the UK it shouldn't be too big an issue because of the speed of rollout but in say Spain at the rate they're currently going their whole population won't be vaccinated until 2032, so what's the plan if they don't speed up? Are they going to deny young Spanish people travel and basic life pleasures for their entire 20's?

The pace of vaccination is slow due to the limited number of vaccines available on the world market right now. As soon as the other vaccines start coming out the pace will pick up.

I doubt any EU country will not have all its population vaccinated by the middle/end of next year. There'd have to be a serious supply issue for that to happen.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

BBC is running lots of "Ministers reassure public over Oxford vaccine posts" though they don't seem to be saying anything really other than don't worry the vaccines are great.
Am I wrong to interpret it as a bit like a man standing in front of a burning building saying there is nothing to see here?

They had some professor on Radio 4 this lunchtime (can't remember his name). He said although they can't be certain he thinks it's quite likely that the vaccines will still protect against serious illness and hospitalisations in the case of the SA variant, even if they don't protect against milder forms of the illness. He did briefly criticise some off the press coverage for reveling in bad news.

 

[F-Red]

In the UK it shouldn't be too big an issue because of the speed of rollout but in say Spain at the rate they're currently going their whole population won't be vaccinated until 2032, so what's the plan if they don't speed up? Are they going to deny young Spanish people travel and basic life pleasures for their entire 20's?

In a previous post you're accusing the media of scaremongering and yet you come out with this horse shit. It's quite clear why the rate of vaccination is varying between countries at the moment, and it's all linked to supply.

 

[Nytram Shakes]

If it comes across as "worry about the next six months" then they'll be doing fine. A vaccine in the arm right now is worth a lot.

The drug companies will see it differently, they've a lot of testing to do and a new design to create. Some will find a covid strain cocktail easier to produce than others, some may even be able to combine a covid and flu booster in one jab. Chances are it'll be Q4 (at best) before we see them - there will be a lot more dead people by then if we don't use the available vaccines now. That means governments have to go with what they've got weather that's border controls, lockdowns, or last month's vaccine.

What it represents for all countries though is a reminder that unless case numbers fall globally, the virus may keep getting ahead of us.

well this is kind of what it seems like the news coverage is avoiding saying, the goverment is very much portyaying the vaccine roll out as the end of the pandemic, when atcually it seems tempoary solution to the most common strains we have today.

say even if once everyone has been jabbed, we can't ease lockdown as all that will happen is the new variants will spread?

I get that there is chance that the current virus's 'may' help people getting too ill, but thats only a may help.

 

[11101]

The pace of vaccination is slow due to the limited number of vaccines available on the world market right now. As soon as the other vaccines start coming out the pace will pick up.

I doubt any EU country will not have all its population vaccinated by the middle/end of next year. There'd have to be a serious supply issue for that to happen.

The EU has repeatedly said there will be supply constraints in Q1 but by the time March/April come around they will have more vaccines than they know what to do with.

I'd be virtually certain every country in Europe will have the doses to vaccinate everybody by Christmas, if not much sooner. Whether individual countries manage to inject them all is another matter.

 

[McGrathsipan]

The EU has repeatedly said there will be supply constraints in Q1 but by the time March/April come around they will have more vaccines than they know what to do with.

I'd be virtually certain every country in Europe will have the doses to vaccinate everybody by Christmas, if not much sooner. Whether individual countries manage to inject them all is another matter.

yeah but you may as well be injecting soapy water into your arm if the latest bunch of headlines are true.

I am so lost its unreal. Today it reads as if the whole vaccine drive is a massive pink elephant that will just kick this virus down the road a bit until it mutates and brings us all to a shuddering halt again.

Will the fecking things work or not? I just dont know what to believe at this stage

 

[Buster15]

yeah but you may as well be injecting soapy water into your arm if the latest bunch of headlines are true.

I am so lost its unreal. Today it reads as if the whole vaccine drive is a massive pink elephant that will just kick this virus down the road a bit until it mutates and brings us all to a shuddering halt again.

Will the fecking things work or not? I just dont know what to believe at this stage

I would recommend that you calmed down and take a few minutes to understand what AZ has said. The latest piece of information is telling us about very early indications on a very small sample.
To their credit, they are telling us what they know as soon as they know it.
Nevertheless, it is specific to the SA variant, which is not the dominant strain.
And if it is proven to be correct, we will have a top up vaccination in the autumn.
Have you been vaccinated yet?

 

[McGrathsipan]

I would recommend that you calmed down and take a few minutes to understand what AZ has said. The latest piece of information is telling us about very early indications on a very small sample.
To their credit, they are telling us what they know as soon as they know it.
Nevertheless, it is specific to the SA variant, which is not the dominant strain.
And if it is proven to be correct, we will have a top up vaccination in the autumn.
Have you been vaccinated yet?

No and it will be a long time before I get one. I am 40.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...nocking-the-confidence-of-scientists-12212424

This article has me worried

 

[Pexbo]

The EU has repeatedly said there will be supply constraints in Q1 but by the time March/April come around they will have more vaccines than they know what to do with.

I'd be virtually certain every country in Europe will have the doses to vaccinate everybody by Christmas, if not much sooner. Whether individual countries manage to inject them all is another matter.

Do you foresee a time where governments have to decide whether there is any value in vaccinating the 18-35 bracket with the current vaccines or decide whether manufacturing resources instead need to be focused on producing booster jabs for the more dangerous and vaccine resistant strains and starting again on the 80/70/60+ tiers?

 

[11101]

yeah but you may as well be injecting soapy water into your arm if the latest bunch of headlines are true.

I am so lost its unreal. Today it reads as if the whole vaccine drive is a massive pink elephant that will just kick this virus down the road a bit until it mutates and brings us all to a shuddering halt again.

Will the fecking things work or not? I just dont know what to believe at this stage

Europe has not bet the farm on AstraZeneca so hopefully we will be alright. Pfizer and Moderna are still effective against the new variants, and supposedly so is the J&J vaccine. If they are not, mRNA vaccines are supposed to be easy to reengineer and the EU wont need to go through a complex recertification process each time.

Do you foresee a time where governments have to decide whether there is any value in vaccinating the 18-35 bracket with the current vaccines or decide whether manufacturing resources instead need to be focused on producing booster jabs for the more dangerous and vaccine resistant strains and starting again on the 80/70/60+ tiers?

God knows. I think some protection will always be better than none at all, and at some point in the future you will be able to get a Covid vaccine as easily as you get a flu jab. No reason why we can't all get boosters.

 

[djembatheking]

yeah but you may as well be injecting soapy water into your arm if the latest bunch of headlines are true.

I am so lost its unreal. Today it reads as if the whole vaccine drive is a massive pink elephant that will just kick this virus down the road a bit until it mutates and brings us all to a shuddering halt again.

Will the fecking things work or not? I just dont know what to believe at this stage

It all seems very hit and miss , almost like a big experiment , keep trying different things and see what works best . I see where you are coming from, it doesn`t ispire much confidence. Just got to hope for the best .

 

[F-Red]

yeah but you may as well be injecting soapy water into your arm if the latest bunch of headlines are true.

I am so lost its unreal. Today it reads as if the whole vaccine drive is a massive pink elephant that will just kick this virus down the road a bit until it mutates and brings us all to a shuddering halt again.

Will the fecking things work or not? I just dont know what to believe at this stage

I think you need to calm down a bit, the headlines are way too over dramatic. Robert Dingwall has summarised it well.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-55977904/page/2

Professor Robert Dingwall, who sits on the government's expert Nervtag group (New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group) suggests people should not be alarmed.

"It's very hard to see why this study has generated so much publicity unless people are looking actively for bad news stories," he said.

He emphasises how small the study is, and cites "massive degrees of uncertainty around the result".

"This is really not a piece of work that should command any great respect or confidence, obviously it's worth following up and taking a closer look at things.

"But the idea that this one small piece of work should be used to jeopardise public confidence or to provoke a major shift in policy is really just a little bit absurd."

 

[prateik]

That's true.. You always need a large data set before drawing conclusions.. certainly larger than 39 cases..
There have been a lot of articles throughout the last year that have jumped the gun.

That said, if SA has indeed put the vaccination program on hold (read it here last night), then there might be some real cause for concern .. I'm sure the government there has decent idea of what the situation is..

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I think you need to calm down a bit, the headlines are way too over dramatic. Robert Dingwall has summarised it well.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-55977904/page/2

The Guardian headline is this

Oxford Covid vaccine has 10% efficacy against South African variant, study suggests

Pretty irresponsible

 

[Pogue Mahone]

No piece of research is perfect but I’m finding the rush to dismiss a large study, with a clear outcome, just as annoying as those headlines. At the very least it raises significant concerns, which need to be taken seriously. It’s not as though it’s a big surprise anyway. We already know this strain can partially evade the immune response, in the lab and in people.

I think @Mickeza might be onto something re the short dose interval. That’s the most likely explanation for the poor efficacy. We need bigger studies though. More data. Which we already have with J&J and Novovax. Hopefully see some reassuring data on the AZ vaccine on this strain soon. Meanwhile I can fully understand the approach of the SA government.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

yeah but you may as well be injecting soapy water into your arm if the latest bunch of headlines are true.

I am so lost its unreal. Today it reads as if the whole vaccine drive is a massive pink elephant that will just kick this virus down the road a bit until it mutates and brings us all to a shuddering halt again.

Will the fecking things work or not? I just dont know what to believe at this stage

I’m where you are, evolution makes me think the fecker will never be gone, it’ll find a way to keep doing it’s thing.
I can’t shake the feeling the human World is pissing into the wind here, although I’d argued it’s inevitability since it swept over the World from one market in just a few months.

I’m just at an incredibly negative stage with it now, been 14 months now since I could take my daughter back home and see her great grandma and all of our friends and family, I naively hoped a vaccine would mean “crack on people, we have a vaccine now and it’s no longer ok to feck over everyone’s lives and cause mental and economic destruction”.
It’s seems like it’s the fecking opposite, now it’s harder restrictions than ever in most countries so it doesn’t mutate too often and well, I just think the fecker will and by the time we say “it’s life, we’re gonna have to live with it”, my Nan will be gone, my UK family will all be suffering massive depression. I mean, I don’t wanna Facetime them any longer, this 3rd lockdown has utterly broken them. My old man and his missus who traveled all the time and did fun shit seem in a very bad place, my mates with kids are not doing well either, they almost enjoyed lockdown 1 and more time together but now a year in and 24/7 with them and no break... well, is it even slightly surprising?

Morning TV have had the 16-22 year olds on all week here to talk about the mass depression setting in there. The damage with every passing month of this shit seems fecking horrendous, and it’ll live on a long long time afterwards.

I just desperately fecking hope there’s an end game here and we aren’t just fecking winging it.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I’m where you are, evolution makes me think the fecker will never be gone, it’ll find a way to keep doing it’s thing.
I can’t shake the feeling the human World is pissing into the wind here, although I’d argued it’s inevitability since it swept over the World from one market in just a few months.

I’m just at an incredibly negative stage with it now, been 14 months now since I could take my daughter back home and see her great grandma and all of our friends and family, I naively hoped a vaccine would mean “crack on people, we have a vaccine now and it’s no longer ok to feck over everyone’s lives and cause mental and economic destruction”.
It’s seems like it’s the fecking opposite, now it’s harder restrictions than ever in most countries so it doesn’t mutate too often and well, I just think the fecker will and by the time we say “it’s life, we’re gonna have to live with it”, my Nan will be gone, my UK family will all be suffering massive depression. I mean, I don’t wanna Facetime them any longer, this 3rd lockdown has utterly broken them. My old man and his missus who traveled all the time and did fun shit seem in a very bad place, my mates with kids are not doing well either, they almost enjoyed lockdown 1 and more time together but now a year in and 24/7 with them and no break... well, is it even slightly surprising?

Morning TV have had the 16-22 year olds on all week here to talk about the mass depression setting in there. The damage with every passing month of this shit seems fecking horrendous, and it’ll live on a long long time afterwards.

I just desperately fecking hope there’s an end game here and we aren’t just fecking winging it.

There is an end game. It’s already started. The vaccines. Yes there will be strains that reduce efficacy but we already know that this latest slippery cnut of a strain can be prevented by at least two of the vaccines with a level of efficacy that is higher than the flu vaccine. And that’s coming after a sustained spell of viral replication all over the world that we will never see again.

I get that it’s disappointing how dragged out the end is getting but it’s no less tangible even though it might be delayed. The only issue is how long it takes to get back to normality. 6 months? 12 months? We don’t know but all we can do is crack on with doing our bit to reduce transmission. It’s not easy but it’s not a world war either. We’re not eating rations and sleeping in bunkers. So it’s important to have a bit of perspective. Life is hard right now but it could be a lot worse.

 

[McGrathsipan]

I’m where you are, evolution makes me think the fecker will never be gone, it’ll find a way to keep doing it’s thing.
I can’t shake the feeling the human World is pissing into the wind here, although I’d argued it’s inevitability since it swept over the World from one market in just a few months.

I’m just at an incredibly negative stage with it now, been 14 months now since I could take my daughter back home and see her great grandma and all of our friends and family, I naively hoped a vaccine would mean “crack on people, we have a vaccine now and it’s no longer ok to feck over everyone’s lives and cause mental and economic destruction”.
It’s seems like it’s the fecking opposite, now it’s harder restrictions than ever in most countries so it doesn’t mutate too often and well, I just think the fecker will and by the time we say “it’s life, we’re gonna have to live with it”, my Nan will be gone, my UK family will all be suffering massive depression. I mean, I don’t wanna Facetime them any longer, this 3rd lockdown has utterly broken them. My old man and his missus who traveled all the time and did fun shit seem in a very bad place, my mates with kids are not doing well either, they almost enjoyed lockdown 1 and more time together but now a year in and 24/7 with them and no break... well, is it even slightly surprising?

Morning TV have had the 16-22 year olds on all week here to talk about the mass depression setting in there. The damage with every passing month of this shit seems fecking horrendous, and it’ll live on a long long time afterwards.

I just desperately fecking hope there’s an end game here and we aren’t just fecking winging it.

I feel you. I wish I could offer words of encouragement but I see the devastating effect its having on my family and its even seeping into me at this point.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

There is an end game. It’s already started. The vaccines. Yes there will be strains that reduce efficacy but we already know that this latest slippery cnut of a strain can be prevented by at least two of the vaccines with a level of efficacy that is higher than the flu vaccine. And that’s coming after a sustained spell of viral replication all over the world that we will never see again.

I get that it’s disappointing how dragged out the end is getting but it’s no less tangible even though it might be delayed. The only issue is how long it takes to get back to normality. 6 months? 12 months? We don’t know but all we can do is crack on with doing our bit to reduce transmission. It’s not easy but it’s not a world war either. We’re not eating rations and sleeping in bunkers. So it’s important to have a bit of perspective. Life is hard right now but it could be a lot worse.

I wish I shared your confidence Pogue, and I hope being a medical man it’s well placed.

I’ve just spent an entire year hearing of how fecking stupid Sweden were for trying to remain as normal as possible only to then witness country after country, Czech, Portugal, Austria, Switzerland, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, etc etc all then get utterly smashed anyway, no matter how many fecking lockdowns they introduce or borders they stick up.
So many of the early good shows (the above, Germany etc) have been absolutely twatted anyhow despite it all, which certainly has felt like we’re all pissing into the wind with travel corridors and early lockdowns etc.

And now the vaccine gives me that pissing into the wind feeling too.

I get what your saying with World Wars etc, absolutely, and I know I’m really one of the last ones who should be complaining, today we went to Leos PlayWorld, IKEA, and out for dinner, but it’s not knowing if my daughter will even know her family in a year, or even if that year won’t suddenly be two or three. Add to that how I am seriously worried for my families mental health.
At least for a World War you knew the alternative.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I wish I shared your confidence Pogue, and I hope being a medical man it’s well placed.

I’ve just spent an entire year hearing of how fecking stupid Sweden were for trying to remain as normal as possible only to then witness country after country, Czech, Portugal, Austria, Switzerland etc etc all then get utterly smashed anyway, no matter how many fecking lockdowns they introduce or borders they stick up.
So many of the early good shows (the above, Germany etc) have been absolutely twatted anyhow despite it all, which certainly has felt like we’re all pissing into the wind with travel corridors and early lockdowns etc.

And now the vaccine gives me that pissing into the wind feeling too.

I get what your saying with World Wars etc, absolutely, and I know I’m really one of the last ones who should be complaining, today we went to Leos PlayWorld, IKEA, and out for dinner, but it’s not knowing if my daughter will even know her family in a year, or even if that year won’t suddenly be two or three. Add to that how I am seriously worried for my families mental health.
At least for a World War you knew the alternative.

Without rehashing the whole Sweden thing again it’s safe to say the criticism has been mainly justified with hindsight. When you compare the death rate in Sweden to its near neighbours it doesn’t look great and a lot of the early rhetoric about reaching herd immunity without vaccines (predicted to happen at some point last year, right?) has been proven comprehensively wrong.

But yeah, every country in which the virus got established has been hammered. Which was inevitable really. Although thankfully we haven’t seen anyone completely go under (although some got pretty close) which is thanks to emergency measures, such as lockdowns. But we’ve got to a point where lockdowns aren’t the only tool available to us to fight this. Thank feck. So it’s onwards and upwards from here, even though it’s gonna be an ongoing grind for a while yet. This current situation feels fecking miserable because we’re all so bored of the damn virus but it’s important to remember how much better off we are now than at the end of all the previous surges.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

But yeah, every country in which the virus got established has been hammered. Which was inevitable really. Although thankfully we haven’t seen anyone completely go under (although some got pretty close) which is thanks to emergency measures, such as lockdowns. But we’ve got to a point where lockdowns aren’t the only tool available to us to fight this. Thank feck. So it’s onwards and upwards from here, even though it’s gonna be an ongoing grind for a while yet.

I’m not rehashing that again, too many countries with similar populations did the exact opposite (Swiss, Austria, Portugal etc etc) and are worse off so the whole debate either way is pointless. It’s a miles more nuanced one than “neighbours” for sure.

As I say, I hope your faith is well placed. I’m just not there, I was so sure the vaccine roll out but be the end of the super harsh restrictions at least, even if others needed to stay but how shit scared everyone seems about mutations makes me massively doubt that.

 

[Pexbo]

I’m not rehashing that again, too many countries with similar populations did the exact opposite (Swiss, Austria, Portugal etc etc) and are worse off so the whole debate either way is pointless. It’s a miles more nuanced one than “neighbours” for sure.

As I say, I hope your faith is well placed. I’m just not there, I was so sure the vaccine roll out but be the end of the super harsh restrictions at least, even if others needed to stay but how shit scared everyone seems about mutations makes me massively doubt that.

“Similar populations” but absolutely incomparable “population densities”.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

“Similar populations” but absolutely incomparable “population densities”.

PM me the densities in Norway & Finland.

Cramped living populations:

Sweden: 15% of 10.23 million
Norway 6.1% of 5.3 million
Finland 7.7% of 5.5 million

I highly doubt the Swiss have 1.5 million living in cramped accommodation with their outlook on immigration and asylum but maybe?

If you wanna believe it’s as simple as ”look at your neighbours”, I’d say you’re doing yourself a disservice.
That’s me anyway, I’m not going there again.

 

[Compton22]

I’m not rehashing that again, too many countries with similar populations did the exact opposite (Swiss, Austria, Portugal etc etc) and are worse off so the whole debate either way is pointless. It’s a miles more nuanced one than “neighbours” for sure.

As I say, I hope your faith is well placed. I’m just not there, I was so sure the vaccine roll out but be the end of the super harsh restrictions at least, even if others needed to stay but how shit scared everyone seems about mutations makes me massively doubt that.

I just think they're being very cautious, which isn't a bad thing considering how we know so much more about this virus than we did in the past. They know as well as anyone else that as soon as we let our guard down too much, it will inevitably spiral out of control again, even with a decent vaccine coverage. I hope they remain overly cautious, especially with these more transmissible variants.

I know it's hard, I'm sick to death of hearing about this virus and I can't wait for life to return to normal. Before it was mainly hope that was keeping me going. Now, I'm sure there will be an end to this pandemic, just not sure when.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

I just think they're being very cautious, which isn't a bad thing considering how we know so much more about this virus than we did in the past.

I hope so mate. We all do.

 

[Wibble]

There is an end game. It’s already started. The vaccines. Yes there will be strains that reduce efficacy but we already know that this latest slippery cnut of a strain can be prevented by at least two of the vaccines with a level of efficacy that is higher than the flu vaccine. And that’s coming after a sustained spell of viral replication all over the world that we will never see again.

I get that it’s disappointing how dragged out the end is getting but it’s no less tangible even though it might be delayed. The only issue is how long it takes to get back to normality. 6 months? 12 months? We don’t know but all we can do is crack on with doing our bit to reduce transmission. It’s not easy but it’s not a world war either. We’re not eating rations and sleeping in bunkers. So it’s important to have a bit of perspective. Life is hard right now but it could be a lot worse.

Not to mention that the data that is being used to show that the AZ vaccine doesn't work well with the SA variant is rubbish, with error bars so large and overlapping that they may be meaningless. Let's hope a much larger data set paints a better picture.

 

[Wibble]

“Similar populations” but absolutely incomparable “population densities”.

Yes. The Australian data is very enlightening. Outbreaks like the initial cruise ship sourced one occurred primarily in household with few people per large dwelling. The Victoria outbreak occurred primarily in public housing with much denser populations. It spread faster and took much longer to eradicate.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Yea. The Australian data is very enlightening. Outbreaks like the initial cruise ship sourced one occurred primarily in household with few people per large dwelling. The Victoria outbreak occurred primarily in public housing with much denser populations. It spread faster and too much longer to eradicate.

Which makes the Scandy data equally compelling....


Cramped living populations:

Sweden: 15% of 10.23 million
Denmark: 10% of 5.8 million
Norway 6.1% of 5.3 million
Finland 7.7% of 5.5 million

Reading that you’d conclude without knowing the actual stats who the likely 1 & 2 in Covid cases would be.

They’ve concluded here that being low income is the biggest risk factor with Covid, but we kinda knew that straight from the off didn’t we?

The eu overcrowed living data is actually rather shocking, well, was to me at least with regards to Sweden, but then such a generous and compassionate immigration and asylum policy often leads to such.
Sweden has gone in a completely different direction to the rest of Scandinavia since the huge Turkish immigration in the 60’s and the incredible amount since, not least the near half million they helped during the 2015 crisis.

Almost as surprising is Ireland so far out in front on under-occupied dwellings @Pogue Mahone and a tiny amount right down the bottom of the list of over occupied. I’d have never guessed that.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Which makes the Scandy data equally compelling....


Cramped living populations:

Sweden: 15% of 10.23 million
Denmark: 10% of 5.8 million
Norway 6.1% of 5.3 million
Finland 7.7% of 5.5 million

They’ve concluded here that being low income is the biggest risk factor with Covid, but we kinda knew that straight from the off didn’t we?

The eu overcrowed living data is actually rather shocking, well, was to me at least with regards to Sweden, but then such a generous and compassionate immigration and asylum policy often leads to such.
Sweden has gone in a completely different direction to the rest of Scandinavia since the huge Turkish immigration in the 70’s-80’s and the incredible amount since, not least the near half million they helped during the 2015 crisis.

Almost as surprising is Ireland so far out in front on under-occupied dwellings @Pogue Mahone and a tiny amount right down the bottom of the list of over occupied. I’d have never guessed that.

Not sure why you’re tagging me in? It’s no secret that Ireland has a low population density. And I’m sure absolutely nobody wants to revisit the circular arguments about crowded immigrant housing, skiing holidays or whatever else the feck you used to blame for Sweden getting walloped during the first wave.

One thing that is absolutely clear by now is that a lot of the assumptions on which Sweden’s initial strategy were based have been proven categorically wrong. The Swedish Prime Minister, the king and Tegnell himself have all admitted they fecked up during the first wave, hence they haven’t repeated the same strategy during this second wave.

Whatever, though. Your mind is made up. Nothing I say will change it. So let’s not kick this off all over again.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Not sure why you’re tagging me in? It’s no secret that Ireland has a low population density.

You’re Irish and it’s not population density, it’s cramped living, I’d have never guessed Ireland would be so low. I thought you’d be interested but maybe you knew already.
Equally I’d have expected Belgium to be miles higher.

My minds not made up, I just think several countries in Europe with similar populations have had completely different strategies with Covid and got fecked regardless. Some of them with great starts and hard lockdowns (Portugal) Austria, Switzerland, some with bad, but in Jan 2021, equally fecked or in the case of Portugal,
way more fecked.

I think it’s nuanced is all, I’m also certain there have been a shit load of feck ups here. But you should be more open as to why, rather than just “neighbours done better”, there are huge differences with those neighbours and cramped living as Wibbs posted is a massive factor in this.

If Sweden did exactly what Denmark did, would it have similar stats ? Well Switzerland, Austria and Portugal tell me we have no fecking idea. Let’s not even get started on poor Belgium, what the feck were they supposed to do more than they have?

We’ve learned one thing on how to guarantee you can hold it at bay in the past year, hard as feck borders from the very beginning. There’s zero guarantee with anything else, as proven by Germany, Portugal, Switzerland et al. There’s absolutely no other strategy that has proven medium-term to have a massive effect on keeping your Covid mortality low. No other.

Which brings me back to my pissing in the wind rant, that’s how this last year has felt to me and how it continues to feel, so feck me Pogue please please be correct that this vaccine drive is the start of end-game and restore some of my belief. This shit scared talk of mutations has completely sent me ripping my hair out.

 

[Traub]

Today’s a bad day, the government has halted the rollout of the AZ vaccine.

Some positive though is our number of daily cases has dropped off a cliff. Whilst I know we don’t have the capacity to fully measure the number of cases, it does look like we are through our second wave. I actually think we pretty close to herd immunity here, but the fact that reinfections occur means it’ll just be for a short while anyway.

 

[4bars]

Is the second wave of the Swedish strain I see...

 

[massi83]

Is the second wave of the Swedish strain I see...

Thankfully this time I have immunity!

 

[NYAS]

There is an end game. It’s already started. The vaccines. Yes there will be strains that reduce efficacy but we already know that this latest slippery cnut of a strain can be prevented by at least two of the vaccines with a level of efficacy that is higher than the flu vaccine. And that’s coming after a sustained spell of viral replication all over the world that we will never see again.

I get that it’s disappointing how dragged out the end is getting but it’s no less tangible even though it might be delayed. The only issue is how long it takes to get back to normality. 6 months? 12 months? We don’t know but all we can do is crack on with doing our bit to reduce transmission. It’s not easy but it’s not a world war either. We’re not eating rations and sleeping in bunkers. So it’s important to have a bit of perspective. Life is hard right now but it could be a lot worse.

Are you referring to Pfizer and Moderna here?

Would it be fair to say that, so far given what we know, the Pfizer vaccine is the best of the lot?

 

[Wibble]

We’ve learned one thing on how to guarantee you can hold it at bay in the past year, hard as feck borders from the very beginning. There’s zero guarantee with anything else, as proven by Germany, Portugal, Switzerland et al. There’s absolutely no other strategy that has proven medium-term to have a massive effect on keeping your Covid mortality low. No other.

The border closures work because it prevents importation of new cases that seed outbreaks be that from abroad or other areas/states but need to be coupled with all the other usual measures. You then have the opportunity to use lockdown/distances/masks to try to kill the outbreaks within a "cell". In the case of the Victoria outbreak International and State borders were effectively closed and there was also a border of sorts that isolated Melbourne from the rest of the state.

When the Victoria outbreak peaked they had just over 700 new cases per day and the UK had the same number. Not the same places but it does demonstrate the potentially hugely different outcomes that are possible. Probably the biggest other factor is to keep you cases low enough to allow contact tracing to work properly. Victoria got overwhelmed at the beginning of the outbreak which slowed suppression down and even now with expanded capacity they couldn't cope with more than about 600 daily cases (if I remember correctly).

 

[RoyH1]

Are you referring to Pfizer and Moderna here?

Would it be fair to say that, so far given what we know, the Pfizer vaccine is the best of the lot?

I've had a couple of doctor friends (I like in Denmark) tell me that they think Moderna is ahead of Pfizer in a photo finish due to it being easier to handle; doesn't need extreme cold freezers, can be kept in refrigerator a bit longer and because it has more of the active substance, it is less sensitive to being shaken and rattled around when it's ready for delivery in nursing homes and outside hospital environments.
But there is so little of it in Europe that it's almost a moot point.

 

[jojojo]

Significant outbreak of the South African strain in Austria. Important information for Europe as the Austrian ski resorts appeared to be a significant component in the original European outbreak. Hopefully governments will be quicker off the mark this time. Looking at you, Boris.