I don't doubt the gist of that, and agree it's extremely good news, but I can't help thinking that the 75,000 trial volunteers will mostly be people who follow distancing and hygiene rules closely, whereas of the 75,000 representative Americans at least half will be deluded loons.
The vaccines | vaxxed boosted unvaxxed? New poll
- Thread starter Badunk
- Start date
Yeah that’s a very good point. Plus the trial is unlikely to recruit the very old or very unwell, who will disproportionately feature in those dead/hospitalised stats.
It's true that they aren't quite a cross-section of the population. Their own placebo groups over the efficacy trial reporting period have somewhere between 6 and 10 deaths in total and around 100 hospitalisations. Those numbers are harder to confirm though as hospitalisation criteria (and even the definition of a hospital) will vary between countries.
The trials are still ongoing, so we will gradually see more data on this. How much more data is a tricky question to answer. Trial participants are leaving trials when they get offered approved vaccines (which will make US/UK trials even more unrepresentative soon). People involved in trials of approved vaccines like Moderna and Pfizer are being given the real thing in place of the placebo. The trial I'm on is currently reviewing how to treat its guinea pigs - and it now looks as if they're going to turn it into a crossover trial - everyone gets two more jabs, placebo if you had the vaccine, vaccine if you had the placebo. I'm not sure how much extra data they get from that, but I guess they have their reasons.
Soon the only real data (which is incidentally the most important data) will be what happens to the millions who are being vaccinated.
Small study but interesting findings. Prior infection plus single vaccine jab gives Ab titres > two jabs. Might be an easy way to make finite vaccine supplies go a lot further. Especially in countries with very high caseload to begin with (e.g. Uk)
Somewhat unrelated but isn’t it people who have had COVID and then a vaccine that have felt the worst side effects?
Some more good news coming out of Israel with regards to a 2-dose en-masse Pfizer vaccination in terms of efficacy in preventing transmission and severe covid. Israel has vaccinated about 20% of its population
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55706855
https://www.iflscience.com/health-a...KyQ5-7pg1uR2U3w2wxVSH9LYC9cFp_rIJ3euI4IYLM0pY
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55706855
https://www.iflscience.com/health-a...KyQ5-7pg1uR2U3w2wxVSH9LYC9cFp_rIJ3euI4IYLM0pY
Probably not unrelated. It may be that it's telling us that prior infection is like having the first dose. In the mRNA trials a lot of the strongest side-effects have been on dose 2.
I was just reading that. Really reassuring news.
More Israeli data. Over 60s who have been vaccinated showing significant reduction in cases/hospitalisations etc
The tweet is framed as nothing but good news but the 40-60 yo graph is less reassuring. That’s a big worry for me. Once the elderly are vaccinated is there a risk we let our guard down and kick off a surge of middle aged hospitalisation/deaths. I know that once my mum and dad are vaccinated I will feel like the pandemic threat is basically over. Would suck to end up in ITU a few weeks later.
I won't relax until as close to 100% of people are vaccinated as possible. And even then it will take years to get the whole world immunised.
In Australia's case we will immunise everyone who wants it by October (#scottyfrommarketing promise so take with a pinch of salt) and them International.trabel may still be hugely impacted. Vaccination will be required to get in but with less than 100% effectiveness and inevitably the odd fraudulent vaccination certificate we will still be vulnerable.
I wish we were being harsher on those who will refuse the vaccine but it looks like we will be piss weak.
Very true, I think ideally it'll be offset by more vaccines coming to market and logistics in place to get that age group vaccinated (although I'm not sure the urgency will be the same) but demand will be there.
In addition with community spread and R number lessening enough to withstand behaviour changes with relaxation of rules through a combination of some social rules prohibiting too much mixing too quickly and decreased transmissibility (both from those who've had one vaccine, those who have had covid recently, those who had covid but a one dose vaccine).
I suppose the questions then with regards to morals of the lockdown in terms of societal impact comes into play with the elderly, vulnerable protected. Risk also with propagation of the variants too and how much that will lessen the aggregate benefit of vaccines.
But I mean we were looking for proof of conception for vaccines lessing transmission and more and more data coming in to suggest that effect is a plus overall - for vaccine confidence and eventual uptake by general population.
Weirdly I do wonder how different I'll be socially once I've had my second Pfizer dose in March.
The variants are really making me nervous. The next couple of months we’ll have millions of people partially protected by a single dose while there is ongoing rampant community spread, including variants which have already evolved to partially evade the existing immune response. That’s a slightly terrifying scenario. I think I’m going to stick my fingers in my ears and try not to think about it. We’ll probably be fine. Hopefully
Over 65’s to be invited for vaccination from next week - Daily Telegraph.
The variants are really making me nervous. The next couple of months we’ll have millions of people partially protected by a single dose while there is ongoing rampant community spread, including variants which have already evolved to partially evade the existing immune response. That’s a slightly terrifying scenario. I think I’m going to stick my fingers in my ears and try not to think about it. We’ll probably be fine. Hopefully
Won't everybody's bodies be ready for covid and it's evolving variants? At least those that were vaccinated or gained some immunity by already being infected once? Surely that's a better place to be than a year ago when we were all ripe for the picking with zero immunity programming?
So far it looks as though the variants are at least partially vulnerable to immunity from prior infection or vaccination.
The nightmare scenario is some sort of extreme escape mutation where having caught covid before or received one of the vaccines gives you no protection at all. Then the virus can spread just as quickly as it did in the very first wave. Nobody will have any protection at all. It’s also possible that this could happen with a variant that is simultaneously more lethal.
Everything that I’ve read about coronaviruses tells me that this is extremely unlikely. They tend to be stable and don’t mutate rapidly or dramatically. Immunity isn’t necessarily very long lasting but second and subsequent infections tend to be less severe. It’s just that all these recent variants have freaked me out a bit so so it’s hard not to obsess about worst case scenarios.
Agreed, I fully share the fears of worst case scenarios, sadly. But the hope has to come from SARS1, the common cold, etc, which have all mutated into less serious coronavirus variants. To kill more people in different variants is an evolutionary suicide mission. The hope again.
Very true. The press has been too busy promoting the limitations found in the trials, without mentioning the positives. First we see people extensively question vaccines' effectiveness against new strains, then the side effects (which are ordinary), and now the efficacy. All these do no good to the society but mislead people not to take vaccines.
Any reports of similar happening in the UK? That’s a lot of people turning down the vaccine!
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/01/half-of-care-home-staff-at-uks-largest-provider
Some of it seems to be about logistics issues. Sometimes the staff on duty get vaccinated, but the others don't (and don't get paid time off to go to one of the vaccination centres). I've not seen any national figures but from the anecdotal stuff - it looks like maybe 20% actually don't want it, but there another big group who simply haven't had it.
I assume it's tied in with broader cultural/societal issues. That can be the full range of things from ethnicity, religion, through to simply being young. Vaccine hesitancy is a big issue, particularly in BAME and Eastern European communities. For the younger staff, I'm guessing the reasoning is the same as on here - "I won't get that ill, why should I risk side-effects from a vaccine. I'll watch for a couple of years."
FFS. You’d theoretically expect someone who works there to be more amenable too.
It’s an interesting one. I’m sure one of our resident clinicians (@africanspur @Wolverine ) can correct me if my experiences is out of date but hep B vaccination used to be a requirement to work in hospitals. If your titre is down, get a booster. Non-negotiable. You wonder if this vaccine should also be a condition of employment?
My first reaction is that it very much should. But if that were the case then how about the likes of teachers, don't they have a duty of care to avoid infecting the children they teach and their families?
Yeah, it’s hard to know where to draw the line. Waiters in restaurants, taxi drivers etc etc
I just remember the Hep B thing being something we all accepted. There was never any choice. Maybe it was more optional than it felt like at the time? It was back in the days when people were generally a lot less aware of their rights!
Just whack an NHS surcharge tax on anyone who chooses not to be vaccinated when offered. Like we put tax on tobacco products to try to offset the additional health costs.
Problem is the vaccines don't stop the spread as far as we know, they stop people ending up in hospital and dying. You will get sick and spread it still or be like asymptomatic spreaders at best.
I think we're a long way from any kind of compulsion. We still don't know what happens in terms of spread from mild/asymptomatic cases. The antivax campaigners have damaged some people's confidence - rumours and half truths spread very fast. The focus has to be on education and rejecting misinformation.
Importantly though, there is a risk that we compound suspicion if we talk compulsion (history tells us this!) We also risk compounding health and workplace inequality. That's particularly the case for Black workers, but similar patterns of hesitancy are seen in some other minority groups.
The opinion/intention surveys suggest that the people who are most likely to accept the jab as soon as it's offered are white, British born, educated, living in postcodes with good economic profiles and low covid death rates. Building trust is too important to be left to workplace compulsion.
That said, I am a complete hypocrite on this. I would prefer to get on a plane that only vaccinated people can travel on, or in a pub where only vaccinated people can go. But that's my self preservation instincts talking, not my public health perspective.
Importantly though, there is a risk that we compound suspicion if we talk compulsion (history tells us this!) We also risk compounding health and workplace inequality. That's particularly the case for Black workers, but similar patterns of hesitancy are seen in some other minority groups.
The opinion/intention surveys suggest that the people who are most likely to accept the jab as soon as it's offered are white, British born, educated, living in postcodes with good economic profiles and low covid death rates. Building trust is too important to be left to workplace compulsion.
That said, I am a complete hypocrite on this. I would prefer to get on a plane that only vaccinated people can travel on, or in a pub where only vaccinated people can go. But that's my self preservation instincts talking, not my public health perspective.
Umm... does this mean a lot of us need to eat some humble pie? Sputnik seems to be extremely effective.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00191-4/fulltext
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00191-4/fulltext
Yep it is and in fact, it, as well as evidence of other vaccines, is compulsory to even enter medical school. At least for doctors, I'm not sure about nurses/HCAs/physio etc
I would consider it quite irresponsible tbh to be around very elderly patients and be turning down the vaccine.
And contrary to what some people think, it isn't some horrific infringement of your personal liberty. As you said, it's already a requirement for some jobs to be vaccinated. It's a requirement for some countries to be vaccinated. It's part of various social contracts around the world, which we all sign up to to some extent.
Difficult conversation generally about compulsion though, especially at this particular stage.
It's great news. Again, as with other partial publications the devil may be in the details. But the concept of switching adenovirus between the two doses was always interesting. It's part of a trial with AZ I believe (for a dose of each approach) but I don't know what the status of that is, or whether it might be an option in some rollout programs in Q2.
Like the AZ it will have to answer questions on specifics like proportions of over 70s involved in the trials and when/where the trials ran - and hence which mutations it might have been up against.
But yeah, it can only be good news. Particularly if they can get to mass production fast enough and can sell it cheap enough to help the bigger campaigns.
Pretty sure they said on Radio 4 earlier that this trial might start as soon as next week.
Great news. Small numbers but seems to be highly statistically significant. I wonder what sort or manufacturing capacity they have?
I've got to say, I've just read and (more or less) understood the full report. It's a model of clarity, and left me with none of the "what are you trying to say,/hide, were your tests as confused as your writing?" reactions I had to the AZ paper.
Just to state the obvious now. It's based on their Russian trials - so they don't have any mutation efficacy info to give us, but it is does cover the age groups nicely (though not ethnicities - but we should get more on that from their other trials). It's very open about possible serious adverse events (comparable numbers/types across vaccinated/placebo groups) and deaths (which included two covid deaths in the vaccinated arm - both of whom became symptomatic within a week of dose 1).
Very encouraging. Though doubtless someone will spot more flaws, and as always the feeling that we won't really "know" until we get mass data remains.
Where did you find the full report? I read the Lancet opinion piece but couldn’t access the report it referenced.
It's an interim report but it's got what looks like the most useful (to outsiders) data in it.
Safety and efficacy of an rAd26 and rAd5 vector-based heterologous prime-boost COVID-19 vaccine: an interim analysis of a randomised controlled phase 3 trial in Russia - The Lancet
And the appendices:
mmc1.pdf (thelancet.com)
Cool. Very little to nit-pick there (other than lowish number of subjects). A well designed, well executed study. Using a different adenovirus for second dose makes a lot of sense and might explain excellent efficacy. These are arguably the most impressive results to date.
Also worth noting they’ve had a freeze dried version already approved in Russia. Storage at 2-8C.
I always had my money on Russia saving the world from the virus.
As I just said on the main thread, this is following all the disaster movie tropes. Just when the end of our ordeal is in sight... Boom! Vaccine resistant new variant!
Makes sense that the eventual saviour would be another plot twist.
That's really good news about Sputnik V. It's cheap easy to store and unless anyone finds something hidden in the papers is high efficacy.
It sounds like the ideal candidate for a global roll-out on face value so let's hope.
It sounds like the ideal candidate for a global roll-out on face value so let's hope.
Useful assessment of Sputnik here. Seems generally good news.
Nothing about the Sputnik V vaccine news in my Google News feed. Weird.
Reading about it here though it looks really good.
Reading about it here though it looks really good.