Source? A lot of it has been speculative. I don’t think we’ve even manufactured the local one, and Sputnik is like 100m doses in q2.
At the moment it feels like a lot of speculative reporting hoping the oxford one gets approved.
The vaccines | vaxxed boosted unvaxxed? New poll
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At the moment it feels like a lot of speculative reporting hoping the oxford one gets approved.
Anybody remember me saying how the UK put all its eggs in one basket with the Oxford vaccine?
There are enough doses of the Pfizer vaccine to last until the end of January. The next shipment won't come until March. The rushed order from Moderna won't come until Spring either.
If the Oxford vaccine isn't approved there will be a 2 month pause in vaccinations
There are enough doses of the Pfizer vaccine to last until the end of January. The next shipment won't come until March. The rushed order from Moderna won't come until Spring either.
If the Oxford vaccine isn't approved there will be a 2 month pause in vaccinations
What's the alternative though? Orders of Pfizer and Moderna have production delays, and nothing else is approved.Anybody remember me saying how the UK put all its eggs in one basket with the Oxford vaccine?
There are enough doses of the Pfizer vaccine to last until the end of January. The next shipment won't come until March. The rushed order from Moderna won't come until Spring either.
If the Oxford vaccine isn't approved there will be a 2 month pause in vaccinations
Anybody remember me saying how the UK put all its eggs in one basket with the Oxford vaccine?
There are enough doses of the Pfizer vaccine to last until the end of January. The next shipment won't come until March. The rushed order from Moderna won't come until Spring either.
If the Oxford vaccine isn't approved there will be a 2 month pause in vaccinations
Again, what is the alternative? No country outside of the USA is getting the Moderna vaccine until 2021, that was a promise the company made to the American government and part of the reason most places have bought less of the Moderna vaccine than the pfizer one (along with the reduced ability to ramp up production).
This is ridiculously easy to say in hindsight, where the 2 vaccines which have been authorised so far have, by chance, been Moderna and Pfizer. If it had been Novovax and Sanofi which had been authorised, there would likely be no similar discussion.
I've seen you mention particular timings for when vaccines are supposed to be arriving in the UK but can't find much written about these, could you share your sources? When are the EU getting their shipments of Moderna and pfizer by the way?
The UK would have Moderna coming in January if they hadnt ordered it so late, and why did we only order enough Pfizer doses to last until January if we knew the next lot wouldnt arrive until March.
It's easy to say in hindsight, but a government planning a mass vaccination campaign should plan for all eventualities. Nobody else is facing these delays.
@africanspur Pfizer delay - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55372743. It's been reported all over that Moderna wont deliver to the UK until Spring 2021.
In the EU, the Pfizer vaccine is ready to go from December 27th and Moderna will be ready to begin delivery from the beginning of next year.
The UK ordered 10 million doses of the pfizer vaccine to arrive by the end of 2020. Enough to vaccinate about 1 in every 14 people in the UK if the order had come through properly. They'll be getting about 4-5 million, because of issues with how late they released their results and problems with their own supply chains. This isn't a unique UK problem, its a problem pfizer will have with their supply chains across the world and will affect all their orders. It is a problem probably all of the companies will have at some point and why its so important we all have multiple successful vaccine candidates.
https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/pfizer-...t-10-million-doses-this-year-explained-782813
Actually, other countries are facing these delays. Most others haven't even started vaccinating yet at all, how can you say they aren't facing delays? The EU haven't even approved it yet, despite pressure from quite a few of its member states. If pfizer are not making as many vaccines as they thought they'd be able to, all countries won't get as many as they initially thought they would.
As I've said multiple times, Moderna won't start shipping outside of the USA at all until 2021, having signed that agreement with the Trump administration.
And how many doses of the two will they have? How many people will they vaccinate and what percentage of their populations will they be vaccinating initially?
The last sentence is just so blase, with none of the same scrutiny as your previous statements.
'In the UK, the pfizer vaccine was ready to go from 8th December, with Moderna ready to begin delivery early next year'. Its pretty much the same.
What is in no way true is to say a country which has bought hundreds of millions of doses of vaccine, from every single major (western) vaccine candidate, covering every type of vaccine development, is putting all of its eggs into one basket.
Surely they can get more than 1 million a week done? Get the army out and every vacant building in the UK set up and let’s move on from this madness! In all seriousness I wonder how many people will need to be vaccinated before they can stop with lockdowns? I read it’s about 30 million to calm the social distancing which is bad news for certain industries as at this rate that won’t be for 6-7 months, but surely it’s only a few million before they can be confident hospitals won’t be overwhelmed?
Still, at least the “light at the end of the very dark tunnel” is there now. That’s exactly why they should have always banned Christmas so we weren’t killing our elderly relatives weeks/days before they were being vaccinated.
Still, at least the “light at the end of the very dark tunnel” is there now. That’s exactly why they should have always banned Christmas so we weren’t killing our elderly relatives weeks/days before they were being vaccinated.
In that case I don't think they'd be able to keep up with demand
In what case?
From a purely selfish point of view, I hope they vaccinate the Tier 1 areas.
At least to do some sort of attempt to stop the spread of this new strain that is 75% more infectious.
At least to do some sort of attempt to stop the spread of this new strain that is 75% more infectious.
I’ve read that a Chinese Vaccine with 89% reliability is already being rolled out in Arab nations like UAE and Saudi. Wonder if U.K. authorities are looking into viability for that?
He is speculating using some random news. Doubt either will be released without local phase 3 trial results. Oxford is most likely version to start in Jan.
I think you're underestimating the scale of problem thrown up by the Sanofi vaccine Phase 2 failure (putting back delivery to Q4 21 at earliest) and the potential approval delays for the Astra Zeneca vaccine following the messy looking results from Phase 3. Without AZ approval - nobody is getting through their priority adult population in Q1 next year. Pfizer have already delayed/reduced their rollout quantities from now through to Q2, due to manufacturing issues, Moderna don't expect to get up to full production until Q2.
A lot of attention is now on Jansenn/J&J and Novavax - both currently at Phase3. J&J may be able to ship at volume in late Q1, Novavax say something similar but have no track record of actually manufacturing (rather than designing) vaccines.
There's no special UK failure here. Just a lot of vaccines that might/might not have delivered the required efficacy/safety reports, a lot of orders, and a lot of manufacturing issues.
The equivalent story for EU procurement is outlined in:
https://www.spiegel.de/internationa...es-a-3db4702d-ae23-4e85-85b7-20145a898abd-amp
Their report is on the pessimistic side - it assumes no AZ, and doesn't really look at the (likely) ramp up of J&J and Novavax, which could be ready for approval/shipment late Q1/early Q2. But according to what I've seen the EU are really in no better shape than the UK when it comes to Pfizer/Moderna. Everyone is hoping for AZ, and relying on J&J/Novavax as backups for Q2 onwards.
Are all of the approved vaccines ones that require two doses? And are there any in the works that only require one? Knowing the general public, there will likely be a large percentage who only get the first one.
Does anyone have any more definitive information on the Chinese made CoronaVac?
Johnson and Johnson have a single dose vaccine in (late) Phase 3 trials due to report early next year. However they've also announced a Phase 3 two dose trial that's just starting. Are they running that because of problems with the single dose version, or for some other reason? I've not seen anything official on that.
There may be others. Some of the deactivated virus type vaccines are reckoned (by their makers) to start acting soon after the first vaccine so one of those may give the necessary protection after a single dose, but placebo controlled trial data is sketchy at present.
Depends what you mean be definitive I guess. It's a deactivated virus type vaccine - so a more traditional/known technology than the Pfizer/Moderna type vaccines. It's currently undergoing Phase 3 trials in Brazil and Turkey and efficacy results from those are expected this month.
It's been in use in China for a while though, apparently with a good safety/efficacy profile. The trouble is no one in the west quite trusts those Chinese results - and they've been reporting near zero community transmission for a while. I think it will get more attention internationally once the Brazil/Turkey Phase 3 reports go public.
I believe Turkey are expecting to approve it and start its emergency use rollout in the next couple of weeks.
Thanks for the reply.
Near to zero community transmission means the Chinese data will give us safety data only. You can’t demonstrate efficacy without a lot of people catching the virus.
Exactly. I think they've used it to vaccinate Chinese people travelling abroad to work as well. But that only gets you some circumstantial evidence, not placebo controlled trial efficacy numbers. Hence the Phase 3 stuff from Brazil in particular being so important.
Turkey's trial may already have been compromised. They're getting ready to roll out millions of doses without anything from the trial having been made public. Until they publish, it's hard to trust them, and it would be no surprise if the government there had opted to vaccinate because it's "safe enough" and "it's better than no vaccine." Which is a fair enough decision to take - but not one that lends itself to comparisons with other vaccines.
Feck’s sake. I guess they could at least gather some observational data from Turkey. Does sound like a shambles though.
They may already have the data. I've seen a report saying that the manufacturer plans to publish something on the 23rd. So I guess we just have to wait and see.
They may just have skipped the "press release" early information stuff that we saw from Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca. But as that material was partly done for stock market reasons, part for PR, that's perhaps no real surprise.
Am I right in thinking that AZ submit their final data to MHRA today?
Anyone seen that AZ vaccine has teamed up with sputnik to trial a mixed dose?
Something about the American politicians posting pictures of themselves getting the vaccine makes me so angry
Rupert Murdoch has been vaccinated already despite a vast number of his media outlets pushing antivaxx theories and downplaying the threat of the virus.
AOC got the vaccine & she is 31 . Easy excuse of well I am doing it just to show to people that it's safe.
It's important that public figures like her do get it and put it online because of the number of people who might reconsider their fears about getting the jab and see that if she or others get it then they could get it to. You may not like it but it's important that they do it.
I don't agree at all . Even the USA won't have enough vaccines for everyone for a while yet and most 30 year old non healthcare workers will be waiting ages before they can get it . This is just misuse of privilege in the name of spreading information. I don't mind Biden or Pelosi getting it but this leaves a bad taste
If we lived in a world were everybody is happy to get the vaccine I'd agree with you but sadly we don't and we need a high percentage of people to get it and this is one of the ways we can convince some people it's safe.
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It's a good idea for them to do it, and for anyone in the public eye (including celebrities) to do the same. Many people will have doubts about safety, some will just mistrust the vaccine, others are frightened of needles. If they see these famous people getting their shots and saying "it didn't hurt at all", that has to help.
What do you think would be more damaging,
1. AOC declining the vaccine, setting a bad example to millions.
2. 1 person misses out on the vaccine.
She didn’t solicit it, she was in line automatically as a public official.
It is essential that they do to reduce vaccine reluctance.
AOC getting the vaccine is a good thing if it helps many people getting convinced to take it.
While many young people skipping the queue to get it is bad, if only a few selected ones who are popular do so, in turn convincing many others to take it, is a very big net positive.
While many young people skipping the queue to get it is bad, if only a few selected ones who are popular do so, in turn convincing many others to take it, is a very big net positive.
the biggest single threat to the vaccination programme - and by extension to eventual recovery - is public mistrust. Politicians and leaders have to take it. If there is a risk to the vaccine (and there will be at best a tiny one, as there is with anything) they have to share it. Just the way it is.
Yeah, it's part of the explicit public health strategy. Whether or not we like it, it is undeniably the case that "influencers" - whether they're politicians, musicians or just popular social media figures - have an outsized effect on people's perceptions at this moment. There are large segments of the population that will be swayed to get the vaccine by seeing people they trust and agree with getting it. The CDC have explicitly said that. It is not the only way to influence people but there's good reason to believe that it's one of the most effective ways to influence a large number of people that need that influence to enable the vaccination campaign to succeed.
@JPRouve: I found out more about the different between the EU and UK assessment of the Pfizer vaccine, in case you're still interested. (I figured this goes here rather than in the Brexit; although it may have been covered by others in the meantime.)
So: there is an emergency protocol, which can be used to push the vaccine through more quickly. The validation of the producers' trials is the same, but less is required of the roll-out. A full and proper process would result in a 'permanent' permit to market the medication, meaning that the usual full medical information and instructions are provided with the medication, and that there are full contingency and follow-up plans. (For the vaccines, this concerns e.g. testing on groups that have not had enough exposure during the trials so far, like kids and pregnant women.) For the emergency procedure, only the trials are validated, and a temporary emergency permit is issued to market the relevant medication, with limitations based on the limitations of the trial. The other bit (full information/instructions and follow-up plans) isn't required just go get the product to market ASAP - but that also means that a full assessment process will be required again later on, once the missing information has become available.
The consequence, then, is that the EU took a little longer now, but has the vaccine more firmly in place, so to speak; while places like the UK and Canada were able to start vaccinating earlier, but will have more work left to do later on, e.g. when data on children and pregnant women becomes available.
I'm probably making some errors in terminology and details here (I'm doing this from memory based on something I read last week; kept forgetting to post it), but that's the gist of it.
So: there is an emergency protocol, which can be used to push the vaccine through more quickly. The validation of the producers' trials is the same, but less is required of the roll-out. A full and proper process would result in a 'permanent' permit to market the medication, meaning that the usual full medical information and instructions are provided with the medication, and that there are full contingency and follow-up plans. (For the vaccines, this concerns e.g. testing on groups that have not had enough exposure during the trials so far, like kids and pregnant women.) For the emergency procedure, only the trials are validated, and a temporary emergency permit is issued to market the relevant medication, with limitations based on the limitations of the trial. The other bit (full information/instructions and follow-up plans) isn't required just go get the product to market ASAP - but that also means that a full assessment process will be required again later on, once the missing information has become available.
The consequence, then, is that the EU took a little longer now, but has the vaccine more firmly in place, so to speak; while places like the UK and Canada were able to start vaccinating earlier, but will have more work left to do later on, e.g. when data on children and pregnant women becomes available.
I'm probably making some errors in terminology and details here (I'm doing this from memory based on something I read last week; kept forgetting to post it), but that's the gist of it.
I'd be curious to know the anti-vaxxer rate in the at-risk segment. I think we're in a bit of a "no atheists in foxholes" moment, and I am curious to know if there are that many people 60+ who'd refuse the vaccine.
Judging by how few people over 70 were wearing a mask at the supermarket today I'd say there will be a few.
And the most important thing is that we get as close to 100% of people vaccinated as possible irrespective of demographic.
There’s two big factors to consider there. The first is that America is a relatively old and unhealthy nation. 53m people 65+ and an incredible 100m people at risk, according to CDC analysis. So just due to the sheer number of people it would be very unlikely that millions of the vaccine hesitant people don’t overlap with those groups. It’s also the case that vaccine hesitancy among the black population has been substantially higher for a long, long time for very legitimate reasons, and they also are more likely to have some of the health conditions putting them at risk.
The other thing is there has been a lot of data collected on the subject all saying essentially the same thing. Vaccine hesitancy has fallen as the likelihood of a highly effective vaccine has gone up, and people most at risk of the virus are most likely to take it. But there are still a substantial proportion of people in those groups that say they wouldn’t take it. Donald Trump so far seems to be the poster boy of that, and people will follow his lead, guaranteed. This is the best data on it:
https://www.pewresearch.org/science...n-research-and-development-process-increases/
It’s a pure trend from a properly random sample of the populations and a large sample size. The problem is the only data you can get on intent to do something comes from surveys, and self reported data on intent to do things is inherently unreliable. We are bad at predicting our choices in situations that still feel quite distant from us. But if you accept the general pattern rather than the specificity of the data, a good chunk of 65+ are not sure they will take the vaccine when offered.