The Trump Presidency - Part 2

Here's my bleak and possibly quite wrong explanation: Trump's America wants to weaken Europe and bring it to heel, just as Putin does. Rather than allies we're considered competitors with scant resources but large wallets and large requirements. If he opens the American market to Russia while ours remains closed this offers America a competitive advantage. If he normalises "great powers" taking territory and demonstrates Europe incapable of defending itself then he provides rhetorical fuel for his threats to places like Greenland and Panama. If European nations strengthen it will rely (at least in the short term) on American military imports and will be at the expense of social investment. If America stokes nationalism in increasingly dissatisfied individual countries then it fractures the union and single nations with self interested leaders are easier to pick off at the negotiating table. Slap a bunch of sanctions tariffs on an ungrateful Europe and the pressure grows further. Under that backdrop he thinks he can then bully through favourable "deals". It's an alignment of Russian and American interests, not a puppetry exhibition and the end game is encirclement and exploitation.
 
Here's my bleak and possibly quite wrong explanation: Trump's America wants to weaken Europe and bring it to heel, just as Putin does. Rather than allies we're considered competitors with scant resources but large wallets and large requirements. If he opens the American market to Russia while ours remains closed this offers America a competitive advantage. If he normalises "great powers" taking territory and demonstrates Europe incapable of defending itself then he provides rhetorical fuel for his threats to places like Greenland and Panama. If European nations strengthen it will rely (at least in the short term) on American military imports and will be at the expense of social investment. If America stokes nationalism in increasingly dissatisfied individual countries then it fractures the union and single nations with self interested leaders are easier to pick off at the negotiating table. Slap a bunch of sanctions tariffs on an ungrateful Europe and the pressure grows further. Under that backdrop he thinks he can then bully through favourable "deals". It's an alignment of Russian and American interests, not a puppetry exhibition and the end game is encirclement and exploitation.
you are proscribing far too much strategic and long term thinking to him. He is petty, vindictive, and reactionary. Now, does he have people surrounding him who are leveraging these traits to further their goals? Absolutely.
 
you are proscribing far too much strategic and long term thinking to him. He is petty, vindictive, and reactionary. Now, does he have people surrounding him who are leveraging these traits to further their goals? Absolutely.

It's not so much him as it is the people who have his ear. They're the ones pushing the buttons imo.
 
It's not so much him as it is the people who have his ear. They're the ones pushing the buttons imo.
Seems to me that they mostly just go to heel depending on what Trump says. Apart from Musk and Putin, who seem to have his ear.

Which people do you think are having an influence on his decision making?
 
Here's my bleak and possibly quite wrong explanation: Trump's America wants to weaken Europe and bring it to heel, just as Putin does. Rather than allies we're considered competitors with scant resources but large wallets and large requirements. If he opens the American market to Russia while ours remains closed this offers America a competitive advantage. If he normalises "great powers" taking territory and demonstrates Europe incapable of defending itself then he provides rhetorical fuel for his threats to places like Greenland and Panama. If European nations strengthen it will rely (at least in the short term) on American military imports and will be at the expense of social investment. If America stokes nationalism in increasingly dissatisfied individual countries then it fractures the union and single nations with self interested leaders are easier to pick off at the negotiating table. Slap a bunch of sanctions tariffs on an ungrateful Europe and the pressure grows further. Under that backdrop he thinks he can then bully through favourable "deals". It's an alignment of Russian and American interests, not a puppetry exhibition and the end game is encirclement and exploitation.
It seems more like they are just basically saying we don't care about things that don't directly impact us anymore, let's square off potential problems with people like Russia and stay out of everything. Aligns pretty well with the core Republican value of not giving a shit about anyone other than yourself and your family. Obviously it won't actually work like that, but that seems to be the narrative anyway. Why care about Russia when Russia aren't going to invade America, why care about Europe when they don't like us and don't provide support for us the way we do for them etc. etc.
 
The idea that Trump is actually a master manipulator disguising his genius as a simpleton is as old as his political ambitions. It's hard to tell from the outside but in my opinion the way other political leaders and his own people approach him is very revealing. There were reports that Zelensky was briefed that praising Trump and getting on his good side would increase the likelihood of getting a favorable deal from him and if you listen closely to what Zelensky said during that infamous press conference, it seemed he tried to act upon that.

If top diplomats believe that this works, it means that Trump has no strategy in mind that he follows. He's an opportunist who leverages the 'cards' he's been given and sees where it takes him. That's how he became president in the first place and that's why he is so ignorant of diplomatic relations: For him, only immediate benefits are important and long term effects are left out of the equation. That's the exact opposite of strategic thinking and if it's true that they changed their mind on the security for minerals deal shortly before Zelensky arrived then this is just another example of his opportunistic and short-sighted quid pro quo philosophy.

And that's also how narcisstic psychopaths - the real life ones, not the Moriarty type of villains from movies - operate. Very good manipulation skills but a complete focus on the short term. Empathy only to the extent that they know how they can trick people into having certain images of them but they are so self-absorbed that they can't form real relationships and are ultimately dysfunctional.

He's no Russian asset, he simply sees the costs of fighting him, lacks empathy for his victims and can't see that supporting Ukraine is in the US' best interest as well. Probably even likes Putin because he sees a bit of himself in him. A person who just plays the cards he was dealt and is hated by weak people for it.
 
Seems to me that they mostly just go to heel depending on what Trump says. Apart from Musk and Putin, who seem to have his ear.

Which people do you think are having an influence on his decision making?
I don't think it's that they "have his ear", it's that they know how to play him. For me the press conference last week is the perfect Example. It was not going great, but Vance stepped in and nuked the entire thing with one comment. The better question is who is funding/feeding those people, like Vance, who has Thiels hand so far up his ass you can see his fingers when Vance talks.
 
I don't think it's that they "have his ear", it's that they know how to play him. For me the press conference last week is the perfect Example. It was not going great, but Vance stepped in and nuked the entire thing with one comment. The better question is who is funding/feeding those people, like Vance, who has Thiels hand so far up his ass you can see his fingers when Vance talks.
Who funds Project 2025?

These are the foks who are getting the people in place that feed and/or massage Trump's ego to get what they want foe a lot of this
 
I don't think it's that they "have his ear", it's that they know how to play him. For me the press conference last week is the perfect Example. It was not going great, but Vance stepped in and nuked the entire thing with one comment. The better question is who is funding/feeding those people, like Vance, who has Thiels hand so far up his ass you can see his fingers when Vance talks.
Musk seems to have his ear anyway, when Bannon tried to to bite back against Musk's plans on cuts and visas Trump made it clear who he was listening to in that case. Obviously Trump wants to keep Musk onboard until after the mid-terms at the very least, to scare anyone who would dare speak out in his own party.

Is there anything that they have done so far that actively goes against Russian interests? Just looking for something to act as a silver lining on this cloud really.
 
Seems to me that they mostly just go to heel depending on what Trump says. Apart from Musk and Putin, who seem to have his ear.

Which people do you think are having an influence on his decision making?

I suppose I mean interests rather than specific people but, for example: Vance; tech oligarchs through folk like Anton Sacks and Musk; Anton, Vought, Navarro.... Anton, for example, has in the past been vociferous in his desire for a Europe of Orbans and of rapproachment between Russia and the US as a deterrent to China. It's hard to see the beginnings of the implementation of Project 2025, see some of its leading lights brought into government and not conclude that they're having an effect.
 
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Always nice to get an informed, sober opinion, Ian Bremmer is high quality imho.


He's a smart and level-headed guy and I've been following him and his Eurasia Group for a long while, but he often shows remarkable lack of understanding of Europe and does the very American thing of assuming pretty much every society in the world operates on the same principles as American society. Also tends to be quite sensational and overrates the European far-right big time, as repeatedly proven with his big time missed predictions on France, Germany and so on. But overall I quite like to listen to him, although sometimes I wonder if I'm not being a bit misled myself - if he talks so confidently about European stuff he's plain wrong about, can I be sure he's not doing the same about American stuff, where I can't fact check him?
 
It seems more like they are just basically saying we don't care about things that don't directly impact us anymore, let's square off potential problems with people like Russia and stay out of everything. Aligns pretty well with the core Republican value of not giving a shit about anyone other than yourself and your family. Obviously it won't actually work like that, but that seems to be the narrative anyway. Why care about Russia when Russia aren't going to invade America, why care about Europe when they don't like us and don't provide support for us the way we do for them etc. etc.

Sure, I can see that argument, but ultimately Trump's driven by dollars, ego and reach arounds.
 
I suppose I mean interests rather than specific people but, for example: Vance; tech oligarchs through folk like Anton and Musk; Vought, Navarro.... Anton, for example, has in the past been vociferous in his desire for a Europe of Orbans and of rapproachment between Russia and the US as a deterrent to China. It's hard to see the beginnings of the implementation of Project 2025, see some of its leading lights brought into government and not conclude that they're having an effect.
Who is Anton?

JD is Thiel's man. And Thiel has a working relation with Musk for over 20 years, in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he was the one who pushed/accelerated Musk's jump towards fascism.

He also claims that he does not believe in democracy anymore.

The third person in this cabal of billionaires who are funding fascism has to be Mark Andreesen.
 
Who is Anton?

JD is Thiel's man. And Thiel has a working relation with Musk for over 20 years, in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he was the one who pushed/accelerated Musk's jump towards fascism.

He also claims that he does not believe in democracy anymore.

The third person in this cabal of billionaires who are funding fascism has to be Mark Andreesen.

I actually deleted the wrong name there, I meant David Sacks. Michael Anton is Director of Policy Planning and should've been in the Vought/Navarro category.
 
It seems more like they are just basically saying we don't care about things that don't directly impact us anymore, let's square off potential problems with people like Russia and stay out of everything. Aligns pretty well with the core Republican value of not giving a shit about anyone other than yourself and your family. Obviously it won't actually work like that, but that seems to be the narrative anyway. Why care about Russia when Russia aren't going to invade America, why care about Europe when they don't like us and don't provide support for us the way we do for them etc. etc.

In theory the US no longer acting as a self appointed world police is a good thing. However we know if it finds an advantageous situation they'll find their interventionist side again.
 
“This is, I guess, going to be the new approach — hands off crypto, not enforcing fraud … and I don’t think it’s going to end well,” Richard Painter, a law professor at the University of Minnesota and an ethics lawyer for the George W. Bush administration, told me. “The SEC is going to back off — because that’s what the Trump administration wants — on whatever enforcement they are able to do. I think it’s a very worrisome situation.”

 
Imagine unironically writing those first two paragraphs about another person
 
I don't know if this was already planned but does this mean threat of Tariffs work. If that is the case why didn't any US president try this before.
$65B had been committed to 3 plants (or fabs as they're called for semiconductors, 1 of the 3 is already in operation) based on $6B or so of subsidies under the CHIPS Act in the Biden admin. Don't know if this announcement will be fully incremental.

As to why this wasn't done before, in this case it's that the lack of leading edge semiconductor manufacturing in the US is a somewhat new problem. 10 years ago or so you could point to Intel and GlobalFoundries as manufacturers of leading edge chips, based in the US. But the technology has evolved and everyone got left behind by TSMC. This has only consolidated in the past 3 or so years, so that's one reason why "no president has tried this before", via tariffs, subsidies or any other option. It just wasn't the pressing issue that it is today.
 
+2 is not a good number for a new president, and it will likely deteriorate.

Sure, but he's already underwater on the economy within his first month. This is a single poll, but it's possible his bullying isn't as unpopular as it seems here.
 
What are these? Honest question. I'm not sure they ever could be trusted if things weren't in their own interest.

It's just that Trump and the incel king are absolutely blunt about it. They don't give two fecks hiding it.
Meh, i could easily be wrong and it's all just been posture, but up until Trump i've never really doubted that the Yanks would rally around Europe if western core values, democracy in general, was under threat.


Sure, but he's already underwater on the economy within his first month. This is a single poll, but it's possible his bullying isn't as unpopular as it seems here.

I don't think it's much of a surprise that the voters who put him there are happy with him. Their use of influencers and social media will probably see polls remain high no matter what he does.
 
Trumps comments on someone not wanting peace won’t be around for very long is pretty outrageous, especially from someone who’s only recently been shot at himself.
 
I read this morning how Zelensky was advised not to mention security warranties to Trump and just praise him like Macron and Starmer did. Basically he's like a little kid so whoever meets him is advised to praise him and be on his good side so he doesnt throw the toys out of the pram. But in that meeting Vance was the instigator, he couldn't wait to throw Zelensky under the bus, fekin slimeball.

Also, here's a photo of another man who didn't wear a suit at the White house.

churchill-at-the-white-house-not-wearing-a-suit-because-he-v0-31toq4e7c1me1.jpeg
Love someone to show this to Trump, Vance in front of all the world’s media.
 
One way to spin it I guess.



Yeah, and guess who people will believe?

If the economy tanks, the right is already on message that it is the Biden admin that is to blame, and they have most of the big platforms to push that message, what does democrats have?