The Trump Presidency | Biden Inaugurated

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crappycraperson said:
Some of the state polls were wrong though. Michigan poll in democratic primary itself had a 20 percent swing in favour of Bernie in terms of its difference with actual result. Same goes for state specific polls in GE when it came to Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida. Clinton was leading in polls across these states and hence why predictors of all outlets predictor her to win the electoral college too. Just saying that polls got the popular vote right is a bit of a cop out since getting so many individual states' call wrong is also a big failure.
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Way to help out Buchan :lol:
 
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but the likelihood is that all this Fusion GPS stuff he's going on about probably has very little to do with Mueller's investigation, right? He'll be chasing obstruction of justice, money trails and meetings with foreign actors like the adoption meeting.
 
ChaddyP said:
The art of the Con-way
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Every Republican being interviewed on TV or during a debate does this. They'd talk over the person they're having the conversation with and before you know it the topic is far from what was originally discussed. If you can control the conversation whatever the other person has to say becomes so muffled it's almost like they said nothing. I don't know if people are aware of this but Frank Luntz is who drives most of these common GOP strategies in public.
 
Il Prete Rosso said:
Every Republican being interviewed on TV or during a debate does this. They'd talk over the person they're having the conversation with and before you know it the topic is far from what was originally discussed. If you can control the conversation whatever the other person has to say becomes so muffled it's almost like they said nothing. I don't know if people are aware of this but Frank Luntz is who drives most of these common GOP strategies in public.
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I laugh every time the democrat surrogate gets caught in the trap. The more liberal they are they easier they get sucked in :lol:
 
C3Pique said:
Nobody following the Manafort news? How significant is it?
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He was his campaign Chairman. If they can nail him with significant jail time and give real threats of the same for family members and friends then he might be willing to give incriminating evidence on Trump and satellites and they can keep building a stronger and more significant case.

The biggest question for me is who chose Manafort to head the campaign and why him?
 
Pexbo said:
He was his campaign Chairman. If they can nail him with significant jail time and give real threats of the same for family members and friends then he might be willing to give incriminating evidence on Trump and satellites and they can keep building a stronger and more significant case.

The biggest question for me is who chose Manafort to head the campaign and why him?
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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/19/us/politics/paul-manafort-russia-trump.html

Financial records filed last year in the secretive tax haven of Cyprus, where Paul J. Manafort kept bank accounts during his years working in Ukraine and investing with a Russian oligarch, indicate that he had been in debt to pro-Russia interests by as much as $17 million before he joined Donald J. Trump’s presidential campaign in March 2016.

The money appears to have been owed by shell companies connected to Mr. Manafort’s business activities in Ukraine when he worked as a consultant to the pro-Russia Party of Regions. The Cyprus documents obtained by The New York Times include audited financial statements for the companies, which were part of a complex web of more than a dozen entities that transferred millions of dollars among them in the form of loans, payments and fees.
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crappycraperson said:
Some of the state polls were wrong though. Michigan poll in democratic primary itself had a 20 percent swing in favour of Bernie in terms of its difference with actual result. Same goes for state specific polls in GE when it came to Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida. Clinton was leading in polls across these states and hence why predictors of all outlets predictor her to win the electoral college too. Just saying that polls got the popular vote right is a bit of a cop out since getting so many individual states' call wrong is also a big failure.
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I completley agree about state polls. But he is looking at nationwide US favourability numbers. Nationwide polling was accurate regarding Trump in both primary and general. It also said he (and Clinton) were very unpopular before the election too- and this agreed with the exit poll that the plurality of voters for both people voted mainly to keep the opponent out.
I don't see any reason to doubt this polling right now. If they release a swing-state poll, sure, that might well be garbage.
 
I didn't see Moore's full reply to Trump's blatant lie until now and it's so spot on that I think he just won twitter 2017.
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This uranium one shit is so taxing. I'm not a Clinton fan but Christ this shit has been put to bed. There's just no there there.
 
unchanged_lineup said:
Literally 3 people mentioned earlier that you don't know the difference between polls and probabilities, and then you go and do this :lol:

Edit: it goes without saying perhaps, but naturally none of what you've written here proves what you were supposed to be trying to prove
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:lol:

The probabilities are calculated from the polls. Of course they are correlated. Both, as it turned out, were way out, hence my initial claim that placing any sort of faith in 'the data' is pure and utter nonsense.

Nice way to completely ignore my point about CNN producing - knowingly - skewed statistics, too. Well done.
 
Buchan said:
:lol:

The probabilities are calculated from the polls. Of course they are correlated. Both, as it turned out, were way out, hence my initial claim that placing any sort of faith in 'the data' is pure and utter nonsense.

Nice way to completely ignore my point about CNN producing - knowingly - skewed statistics, too. Well done.
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No, no, no. You still have not proven that at all! You've proven nothing you say and it's still not related to the actual question you were asked.

Why would I acknowledge it about CNN when someone else (@RedChip ) already explained what would happen there? Which you yourself ignored.

I'd ask again - if this is all you got, take it to the election thread and we can continue discussing the distant past there.
 
unchanged_lineup said:
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but the likelihood is that all this Fusion GPS stuff he's going on about probably has very little to do with Mueller's investigation, right? He'll be chasing obstruction of justice, money trails and meetings with foreign actors like the adoption meeting.
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Only thing hit has to do with Mueller is that Trump is trying to distract us from the arrests.
 
Buchan said:
:lol:

The probabilities are calculated from the polls. Of course they are correlated. Both, as it turned out, were way out, hence my initial claim that placing any sort of faith in 'the data' is pure and utter nonsense.

Nice way to completely ignore my point about CNN producing - knowingly - skewed statistics, too. Well done.
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Did the national polls prior to the election reflect the actual national voting numbers after the election?
 
berbatrick said:
I completley agree about state polls. But he is looking at nationwide US favourability numbers. Nationwide polling was accurate regarding Trump in both primary and general. It also said he (and Clinton) were very unpopular before the election too- and this agreed with the exit poll that the plurality of voters for both people voted mainly to keep the opponent out.
I don't see any reason to doubt this polling right now. If they release a swing-state poll, sure, that might well be garbage.
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I agree about that but I just don’t buy this arguement of hiding behind national polling by folks who were made to look stupid on election night due to some outlandish predictions. That too after they made a historical blunder in Michigan during primary already and had that as a warning to learn from.
 
So far this Monday

* Manafort to surrender to FBI
* Some Greek guy pleads guilty on lying charges, now working with the authorities
* Transgender military ban stopped
* Ryan Zinke in trouble with the Whitefish Puerto Rico contract

Anything I've missed so far? Great start to the Tax Reform Week.
 
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