How can you possibly use a blueprint that Stipe himself found redundant in their second fight, to the point he was completely shut out? You're denying N'Gannou's clear progress by doing so. In fact, it'd be playing into his hands trying to approach him in a way he's long since overcome.
The Stipe of last year was three years older and more punch drunk than the 35 year old Stipe who was still at the tail end of his prime years during fight one. Obviously an older Stipe was not going to be as effective against an in form Ngannou who was specifically training to avoid takedowns in fight two. This also suggests that Francis is not comfortable on the ground and has to keep the fight standing up at all costs.
To call what he does brawling is also ridiculous. Lewis and all the other plodders brawl; N'Gannou, as I stated before, sets up and makes clean, concussive connections that don't come about by windmill hands. He makes, and then exploits, those openings, they don't materialise out of thin air.
Lewis and Ngannou are both brawlers. Stylistically different, but still one dimensionally reliant on their right hands to win fights.
I honestly have no idea why you're referencing the first encounter between Stipe and N'Gannou as the foundation of your post - that version of N'Gannou was consigned to history on that very night.
The reality is you don't know which version of Francis is going to show up. Are you going to get the timid version that was scared to engage with Lewis ? Are you going to get the frustrated version who lost to Miocic ? Or are you going to get the flailing bomb thrower who easily dispatched Cain, Overreem, and Rozenstruik ? You just don't know, which is not entirely helpful in assessing his fights.
Gane hasn't done nearly enough to state his arsenal is bonafide in top 5 contests. You're using what he's done up to now against a low tier of HW and extrapolating without any grounds. He may well carry he's threats to the top, but that's far from assured, in my opinion. Stipe obviously isn't the athlete Gane is, but he is far, far more battle-tested and proven and in a different tier entirely to this point in time.
Well he easily dispatched Derrick Lewis, humiliating him before his home crowd - which Francis, for some reason, wasn't able to to do.
It's fair to say in terms of athleticism, this is N'Gannou's sternest test, but that goes by multiples more for Gane - the opponents he's faced are no preparation at all to face N'Gannou.
I don't think you're giving N'Gannou anywhere near enough credit, personally, and worse, you're not acknowledging a clear, linear line of progression and improvement.
I'm bemused by the recency bias Gane's getting as so many are backing him over an opponent who has gone through more, and better opponents to get to the top. We'll see how things go soon enough, I guess!
I don't think its recency bias as much as balancing out the narrative that Francis would have some sort of advantage over Gane. Francis is easily the best puncher in all of MMA, but as has been demonstrated by Stipe, you can still beat him, and Gane has at least as much chance of winning as Stipe had going into fight one.
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