He brings a different set of strengths than any of them for sure, but we haven't seen enough yet to really judge his weaknesses, or assess how important they are in relative terms.
Lesnar: Lesnar surely has similar or greater raw strength, incredible 'linear' speed in terms of his freaky quick double leg takedowns, brutal ground and pound, and had good raw punching power judging by that jab that floored Herring. Obviously zero instinct for the striking game, and that completely undone him before long. Ngannou's knack for the striking game seems utterly insane given his lack of experience.
Carwin: Freakish power.
Really, really freakish power, to the extent that you feared for his opponents, just like Ngannou. Miles stronger wrestling credentials than Ngannou though, and finished several fights via takedown and GnP. I could be wrong, but I don't remember him being taken down except vs Lesnar. Ngannou has (briefly) been taken down, has stood back up effortlessly in fairness, but never against top calibre opposition. Ngannou has miles better handspeed though and seems a much more technical striker. Remains to be seen whether Ngannou's stamina will hold up at this level in the later rounds, which was a weakness for Carwin.
Overeem: KO artist, very good technically, yet Ngannou beat him to the punch. Overeem's shown far, far more in the ground game than Francis, although Ngannou clearly hasn't been forced to show anything yet. Ngannou clearly has faster reflexes and handspeed than this older Overeem, and just about everyone has a better chin than him. The bulked up, Ubereem version really did look freaky very briefly - incredibly strong, big power, retained his great striking and grappling base. His chin, workrate and some dreadful decisions in terms of fight IQ just fecked him over.
This is such a rambling post I can't actually remember why I started it, but basically these invincible super-sized behemoths all tend to look invncible until, all of a sudden, they don't. We still haven't really seen Francis tested against a relentless pressure fighter, a good wrestler, a guy that can test his cardio. Stipe can do all of that, and test his chin too.
The weirdness in all of this is that if I had to bet I'd go with Ngannou by 1st round KO/TKO, but I just think that Stipe is better than people are acknowledging, and that there's been a historic tendency to overlook the (potential) flaws of the gigantic heavyweight wrecking balls that we've seen before.
I guess the way I'm waxing lyrical about a relatively unproven fighter over someone who is a tried and tested champion of the division could appear hyperbolic or premature, and I get that, but, I do believe that once in a while freakish fighters come along and change divisions or raise the bar to a degree where comparing them to others or what has gone before is pretty redundant, and I genuinely think that's the case with Ngannou just as it was with Cain.
A bit like when fighters are in camp preparing for a uniquely styled fighter and can't get anyone in who matches them and are thus still somewhat unprepared until they actually face, and survive, a round or two with the fighter in question and get a feel for them first-hand.
Funnily enough, I don't doubt Stipe's credentials; I just believe that Ngannou is basically a Super Heavyweight in a Heavyweight division, if that makes sense. You can obviously point towards loads of 260lb plus fighters and say they've come and gone in orderly fashion, but apart from Lesner, I don't think any of them fit that 'freak' category where speed and athleticism is there alongside effortless mass. By effortless mass, I mean just a bigger breed of men who walk around at the kind of size that means they have to
cut weight to make UFC's heaviest division, and not because they're out of shape or are smaller men who have packed on too much muscle, but because they are the next size up.
I'm not particularly versed in American sport, but I've been told a few times that someone like Lebron represents this in NBA for being the athletic match of much smaller and lighter men, and that the NFL is choc-a-bloc with men who get absurd results in testing that make little sense when their weight is factored in.
I honestly believe Ngannou goes into this fight as the faster, more athletic and better reflexive fighter; I think he can and will beat Stipe to the punch and react and counter better than him whilst being
20lbs+ heavier and having a longer reach. The equaliser for Miocic should be wrestling, but to wrestle, he has to close the distance, and level change as well, both of which come with a huge element of risk, especially so when shooting into a fighter whose most devastating punch is a video game uppercut.
Miocic fights with his head up and rarely takes it off the centre line, he also generally relies on his own reflexes and counters to land short hooks with little wind up after offering his chin as bait; he doesn't fight long, which makes sense given his wrestling background, but he also doesn't tuck, which is why he gets tagged a fair few times, either in pursuit or when retreating. A sequence I can imagine happening is Ngannou throwing or feinting a wide, looping overhand right that Miocic slides inside of trying to land a short hook counter of his own that is in turn met by Ngannou using his reflexes to pivot off of his baiting start point and launch a barrage of his own with a leading hook combination. It goes without saying that this is high stakes affair with a very real element of one of them going to sleep off a clean and vicious strike landed against the other betting on their own reflexes to evade.
For me, this is the most exciting HW bout in years. Huge, huge kudos to Stipe if he goes in there and makes a mockery of what I've said. In my opinion, the odds are stacked against him in this fight.
