The Hurricane Thread | Hurricane Rafael

Red in STL said:
Wasn't suggesting navigating by the stars, but if you're driving at night what's the advantage of the scenic route?
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Some of my favorite scenic routes are in the desert, like Albuquerque to Roswell, under a full moon; it's so well lit you can drive without headlights.

This scenario requires extremely low light pollution and a scarcity of life to the extent even people don't bother with the area, of course.
 
Organic Potatoes said:
Some of my favorite scenic routes are in the desert, like Albuquerque to Roswell, under a full moon; it's so well lit you can drive without headlights.

This scenario requires extremely low light pollution and a scarcity of life to the extent even people don't bother with the area, of course.
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Not sure rural Florida and Georgia are the sort of places you'd wanna drive with no lights on TBH! :)
 
Just seen an article that this is now a category 5. Mother Nature can be scarily fierce at times.

Wishing all of you who may be affected the best!
 
Red in STL said:
Well he could run some locals over, that should help Harris :rolleyes:
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I prefer to remain as Florida Man only on the caf, not the national news. Besides, if I wanted to conduct car terrorism to help a lying psycho, it would need to be in a swing state.
 
Red in STL said:
Wasn't suggesting navigating by the stars, but if you're driving at night what's the advantage of the scenic route?
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I drive a sports car so I don’t get a lot of views of the sky assuming I’d have to look up to check out the stars. However I will enjoy the views of a dark country highway, cool wind in my hair, warm smell of the peaches rising up through the air.
 
calodo2003 said:
Seeing the path of Milton coming ashore a few miles to the south of Tampa Bay. If that is indeed the case, the Bay area will suffer incalculably less damage. Fingers crossed.
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Suck the water right out of the bay to the south. But that's a disaster for Bradenton and Sarasota I presume. And Fort Myers again?
 
MrMarcello said:
Suck the water right out of the bay to the south. But that's a disaster for Bradenton and Sarasota I presume. And Fort Myers again?
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Yep, the bay will consist of puddles of water & exposed sand bars if it makes landfall south of the Skyway. No doubt Sarasota & Bradenton will suffer devastating effects if so.

I just saw an updated path which has jogged the eye making landfall just north of Pinellas County. That's quite disconcerting.
 
Disney looks like it's going to be flattened, my Mum lives nearish to Miami so she's kinda safe but damn gunna get rough, for once New Orleans is safe!
 
Florida Man said:
I prefer to remain as Florida Man only on the caf, not the national news. Besides, if I wanted to conduct car terrorism to help a lying psycho, it would need to be in a swing state.
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I was talking about rural GA roads - I agree in FL it would be as waste of time, though in the words of ASDA man 'Every little helps'
 
Carolina Red said:
Bro… wow

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Could you (or someone else) give me a tl;dr version of the pressure side of all this?

Wind speeds are fairly self explanatory, higher is worse, but seeing some of these tweets and other coverage lower pressure seems worse?
 
These theories that Biden is steering hurricanes into Republican areas to stop them voting is top tier tinfoilery.
 
Rado_N said:
Could you (or someone else) give me a tl;dr version of the pressure side of all this?

Wind speeds are fairly self explanatory, higher is worse, but seeing some of these tweets and other coverage lower pressure seems worse?
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Pressure and wind speed are directly correlated. A hurricane acts like a giant vacuum, with air rushing in toward the eye from higher pressure to lower pressure.

The area of low pressure also adds some to the amount of storm surge, as it actually creates a bulge upward in the ocean surface. Most surge though is from wind pushing the water.
 
This is going to be absolutely devastating, hotels are fully booked, flights out astronomical, a lot of people won’t have the resources to evac.

A human disaster is unfolding before our eyes, and FEMA has no money left, they are already stretched thin after Helene, and Congress wont come back into session.
 
Carolina Red said:
Pressure and wind speed are directly correlated. A hurricane acts like a giant vacuum, with air rushing in toward the eye from higher pressure to lower pressure.

The area of low pressure also adds some to the amount of storm surge, as it actually creates a bulge upward in the ocean surface. Most surge though is from wind pushing the water.
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That makes sense; thanks.

Raoul said:
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fecking hell.
 
VorZakone said:
Is Milton now a category 4 or 5? Different reports out there.
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Cat 5 now according to this article, estimated to downgrade to cat 3 by the time it hits land.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/10/07/hurricane-milton-helene-florida-tampa-debris/

The Hurricane Center predicted that the storm will weaken to a Category 3 by the time it hits land, and even small shifts north or south in the track could have a dramatic impact on how much damage communities suffer. But if weakening is more gradual than expected, meteorologists said a storm stronger than a Category 3 couldn’t be ruled out.
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I get that it's a category 5, which is the highest category, but everything I've seen till now suggests that it will drop down to category 3 by the time it reaches landfall, and the winds will be around 90mph and not the 180 that people are quoting right now.

Of course out in the sea it is 180 right now but again not when it makes landfall. If even if we 90mph winds by the time it reaches Florida, would those be amongst the strongest recorded for a hurricane?
 
hasanejaz88 said:
I get that it's a category 5, which is the highest category, but everything I've seen till now suggests that it will drop down to category 3 by the time it reaches landfall, and the winds will be around 90mph and not the 180 that people are quoting right now.

Of course out in the sea it is 180 right now but again not when it makes landfall. If even if we 90mph winds by the time it reaches Florida, would those be amongst the strongest recorded for a hurricane?
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It’s the storm surge, not the winds, that’s going to determine how much destruction this storm brings.

Also, if the vert shear brings this storm down from a 5, that means the storm actually gets physically larger in size and affects a broader area.
 
hasanejaz88 said:
I get that it's a category 5, which is the highest category, but everything I've seen till now suggests that it will drop down to category 3 by the time it reaches landfall, and the winds will be around 90mph and not the 180 that people are quoting right now.

Of course out in the sea it is 180 right now but again not when it makes landfall. If even if we 90mph winds by the time it reaches Florida, would those be amongst the strongest recorded for a hurricane?
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TBH the category is almost meaningless, windspeed isn't the main cause of death and destruction, flooding is - this BBC article explains it well
 
Around 2009 pressure and water were removed and it became a wholly inadequate measurement based on wind speed.
Wind speed is important, but really only a certain number of miles from centre, it drops off quite a bit the further out. Water is by far the biggest risk. Tampa Bay was flooded out by Helene and we didnt have anything more than strong tropical force winds.
 
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