Four teams all around 50 points. It should be an interesting finish.
The chase for 4th place (not top 4)
- Thread starter Bastian
- Start date
If they drop points at Villa or Palace it's game on.
I don't think Spurs or Utd are good enough to chase the deficit, but it's competitive.
I think they'll drop points and the kicker will be that we'll get all excited and then we'll drop points and not capitalise.
Arsenal may drop enough points, but do anyone honestly think that we will do our part to get top four?
Our confidence and motivation will be shattered after yesterday. No chance, I fear.
Our confidence and motivation will be shattered after yesterday. No chance, I fear.
Arsenal and Spuds will drop points, guaranteed.
And drop enough of them for us to be comfortably 4th.
But can we win 7/8 of the 9?
I wish I could be confident of that. It would be enough, 7 wins I would say.
And drop enough of them for us to be comfortably 4th.
But can we win 7/8 of the 9?
I wish I could be confident of that. It would be enough, 7 wins I would say.
We’ll drop as many points as do arsenal - forget 4th
Expected points lost. Next villa away on Saturday before the break and this is a crucial match for our 4th place hopes and I think Arsenal would lose points there. Villa lost v West Ham last week and had a good rest so I expect Villa to be up for it and do a job on Arsenal plus Arsenal should be abit leggy after tonight. It’s hard work against Liverpool physically and mentally. And if it’s a draw then the table would look much better for us and the gap would be only 2 points with arsenal having 1 match in hand.
For us, we have to get 18-20 points minimum in the remaining 9 matches. Leicester, Norwich, Brentford, Everton, Brighton, Palace we have to beat no matter what. Easier said than done I know but there is no choice and we have to beat Arsenal too at emirates to kill their chances.
The worry for me is Arsenal’s next 3 games after the break. Palace, Brighton, Southampton (spurs rescheduled date not decided yet). I expect palace to put up a performance at Selhurst park and hope they get something from the game. But Brighton and Southampton are in awful awful form. Arsenal has to lose some points in these 3 games. If they beat palace then they could get 9 points out of 9 if Brighton and Southampton don’t get their shit together which would be dreadful for us.
Arsenal remaining fixtures
Villa (a)
Palace (a)
Brighton (h)
Spurs (a)*
Southampton (a)
Chelsea (a)
Manutd (h)
West Ham (a)
Leeds (h)
Geordie Arabia (a)
Everton (h)
7/11 games are away so it won’t be as easy as it’s been at home for them. Atleast I expect so. And one of the home games is against us which may turn out be the decider as it’s a 6 pointer.
*I think spurs would be squeezed between Brighton and Southampton.
For us, we have to get 18-20 points minimum in the remaining 9 matches. Leicester, Norwich, Brentford, Everton, Brighton, Palace we have to beat no matter what. Easier said than done I know but there is no choice and we have to beat Arsenal too at emirates to kill their chances.
The worry for me is Arsenal’s next 3 games after the break. Palace, Brighton, Southampton (spurs rescheduled date not decided yet). I expect palace to put up a performance at Selhurst park and hope they get something from the game. But Brighton and Southampton are in awful awful form. Arsenal has to lose some points in these 3 games. If they beat palace then they could get 9 points out of 9 if Brighton and Southampton don’t get their shit together which would be dreadful for us.
Arsenal remaining fixtures
Villa (a)
Palace (a)
Brighton (h)
Spurs (a)*
Southampton (a)
Chelsea (a)
Manutd (h)
West Ham (a)
Leeds (h)
Geordie Arabia (a)
Everton (h)
7/11 games are away so it won’t be as easy as it’s been at home for them. Atleast I expect so. And one of the home games is against us which may turn out be the decider as it’s a 6 pointer.
*I think spurs would be squeezed between Brighton and Southampton.
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I honestly don’t know where some of the people here are having the confidence to think we will finish top 4.
They keep harping on about Arsenal having tough fixtures and just completely forgetting the fact we have 2 incredibly hard games in Liverpool and Chelsea let alone the fact we have to visit Arsenal.
If we are being realistic, we have to expect that we will be beaten by Liverpool and Chelsea at the moment. That gives Arsenal 4 games they can afford to lose from now on in and still remain above us. They would be able to lose against Spurs, Utd and Chelsea and any other game you choose and still be above us.
There is extremely little evidence to suggest we have hope of getting top 4 now. It’s done.
I bet next game we'll drop points to Leceister. I hope one of the players is stupid enough to tweet "we go again" after the game so we can all have a laugh.
The belief we can still get 4th is almost as annoying as the Ole in crowd.
We'll win on xG though
All the top 4 contenders have to play Liverpool, they all will likely get a loss
Arsenal have done that out of the way already. The head to head Arsenal vs Man utd and Arsenal vs Spurs would be the determinant
Arsenal have done that out of the way already. The head to head Arsenal vs Man utd and Arsenal vs Spurs would be the determinant
I think Arsenal will lose at least 3 of those looking at the fixture list.
Anyone who thinks it's over is just trying to downplay it.
Far from over, one loss against Villa and suddenly everyone is back in the race.
The game on Sunday, West Ham vs Spurs will though I think knock one of those sides out the race if they lose it.
Far from over, one loss against Villa and suddenly everyone is back in the race.
The game on Sunday, West Ham vs Spurs will though I think knock one of those sides out the race if they lose it.
The problem is, Spurs or United would have to actually string together a few wins to put pressure on you, when was the last time either side went on a winning streak?
Think 4th is yours, unless a complete collapse
Away fixtures for arsenal looks tougher suddenly,
But i think vieira will help arsenal keep in top 4 by losing or drawing? hope that doesn’t happen.
Surely Arsenal cannot Spurs this up with 2 matches in hand? A few draws in the tough games vs United and Spurs would be enough for them, can lose to Chelsea, they are not catching Chelsea anyway.
Yep. Have to win our next 4 actually. Two of them are easy. Leicester we should be better than and Arsenal we simply have to win.
People are really good at math in Redcafe. After every game they re-calculate the points they need for 4th place in the remaining fixtures. The mood swings from "it is over" to "it is still doable" after every game.
If they lose one of those and win the other the gap will be 4 points with equal games played. That's not a bad lead but it's hardly insurmountable.
We need to beat Arsenal at their place and put some doubt in their minds and they'll crumble. Thing is we won't win all our games either even if we do that. Arsenal are still favourites for that fourth spot
Spurs run in is very favourable. They are the only threat to Arsenal.
It's Spurs, beat City away at the Etihad one week, lose to Burnley the next. Spurs will find a way to screw it up have faith in them being Spursy.
itshappening.gif
People talking too much about what Arsenal need to do or not. The fact of the matter is that to get top 4 Utd will need to win about 20 points out of 27 and hope that the other teams around them don't do anything similar. Personally, it isn't that I don't see Arsenal dropping points, it is more that I do not see Utd getting enough.
Don’t think we do. It’s the chase for 4th place, not a title race. That kind of consistent winning run isn’t needed. They aren’t far off from having twice as many red cards as goals in a month and now Arsenal would be favourites if we won 9 games in a row!
This is where any hopes I have of us getting top 4 go to die.
I just don't see us beating them.
Arsenal dropping point isn't that unrealistic to think about. The problem is even if they do I have no confidence in us winning enough matches to actually overtake them. When was the last time we had any meaningful string of wins?
This is what it is. Our form. Our consistency. Us winning matches. We haven’t shown that but one can hope largely because of the caliber of remaining fixtures bar pool and maybe chelsea. After living in hope the whole season and seeing it dashed at every turn in a horrendous manner, I’m willing to fully invest myself one last time for the last 9 games of the season at the risk of being terribly disappointed and dejected. I can understand the reasons for people being mentally checked out but I have decided to go the whole hog after all it will all be pointless if I give up right now.
So back to the topic, I genuinely think Arsenal’s match against villa tomorrow can be the season defining. Arsenal has to lose points here to give us a chance. Come on villa.
So back to the topic, I genuinely think Arsenal’s match against villa tomorrow can be the season defining. Arsenal has to lose points here to give us a chance. Come on villa.
Arsenal is just one point ahead of us but they have 2 games in hand. Villa in recent years has a good record against Arsenal, if Arsenal drop points, I think we still have a chance. If they win, it's over for us. It's our inconsistency that lets us down.
No way 20pts is enough to get top 4 tbh
What now? 70 points should be enough.
Under 20 games with RR in charge we have 9 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats. We are 100% dropping points in the last 9 games.
So will others but I still think 6th is where we will finish.
So will others but I still think 6th is where we will finish.
Hopefully so !
Feck, some difficult fixtures their.
Ignore this fellas, he's just saving himself from speaking too early. He knows Arsenal will take 4th
No top 4 would be a blessing if it means ronaldo and pogba definitely go this summer
Would be a travesty for us to get Top 4, we're a complete shambles and achieving it will only paper over the cracks. Perversely, the thought of the Glazers and the players getting hit in the pocket for their failure appeals to me.