It's a weird one with him, isn't it? Completely hopeless on grass for the first couple of years of his career, then he adapted his game and became the king of Wimbledon for a few years. Then not a single QF appearance since reaching the final in 2011. Quite an unusual trajectory.
I'm always rooting for Federer, especially at Wimbledon where I think he deserves one last(?) bow. Still see him as the favourite too. He's had an easy ride and had time to enjoy himself as well as showing the strength to lift his game when needed (like yesterday when he broke back Dimitrov's serve immediately in the third set). He'll be feeling fresh and confident going into the last three matches and I don't see Raonic causing him too much trouble this year.
I think there are four players (assuming Djokovic wins today) who stand no chance of winning, Querrey, Müller, Raonic and Berdych. Murray has looked slightly shaky so far and Djoko is yet to be tested. His recent form means I make Federer favourite in an eventual semi so I'm leaning towards a Federer-Cilic final at the moment.
Indeed a strange one, but if I was to try and analyse it.. my answer would be that the following factors may have had an impact:
First a quick recap of Nadal from 2006-2011.
2006
Avoided big servers throughout this run, faced the likes of Agassi and Baghdatis.
2007
Big servers like Soderling and grass courter like Youzhny took him to the brink and he had to fight his way through 5 setters, before meeting more familiar guys like Berdych/Djokovic, who he was able to swat away with ease.
2008
Faced no big servers this campaign, and this time destroyed Youzhny. But overall up to 2008, hasn't really had to face a real grass court serving heavyweight outside of Federer who has a more all-court style.
2009 - Inured
2010
Philipp Petzschner takes him to 5 sets, another fast serving, hard hitting player. Nadal edges him out but outside of him, drops a set to Soderling but other than that is comfortable.
2011
Played likes of Mardy Fish, Del Potro, Muller and done really well.
Now one explanation is that the courts had slowed down from the 90's/early 00's and this favoured Nadal, and that the criticism Wimbledon got because of this led to them slightly quickening the courts in recent years to Nadal's detriment.
There is also the factor that even though Nadal was fit this year, he still isn't as mobile as peak Rafa from 2006-2008 period where his all-time great movement around the court, allowed him to retrieve balls which he shouldn't whereas now, he can't have the same impact when the game gets too fast for him on grass, finds it harder to get in the right position to hit difficult passing shots.
Finally the injuries, might have affected his confidence and whereas when younger, he might have fought through the Muller match yesterday, the now battle-worn Nadal, has too many mental frailties to convert these tough five setters which he did face in his prime in Wimbledon and won, but these days - it gets too much for him and he ends up crumbling a little.
For me injuries played a big part in Nadal failing to make an impact from 2012-2016. Whereas yesterday for me was just a very fit Nadal, struggling with the pace of the surface, mentally not quite as strong as he would be on clay and failing to win the clutch points enough. If he had beat Muller, I'd have fancied to beat anyone else including Federer in all honesty but that style of opponent in Muller, on a fast surface is a big weakness for him in recent years and even when fit, was too much for him to confront and edge out.
