Stars and Reserves Draft - Winner: Gio

That's really good. The one thing I'd say is that a goals per game ranking would probably more fair in terms of ranking.

Yeah of course, the pure goals totals favours players that a) never get injured and b) play in lots of competitions, which don't have much relevance in a draft. And of course different eras of football came with different approaches to the game, so a pure comparison between 80s Serie A and 10s Premier League doesn't tell the full story. All the same caveats as usual, essentially.

It's not meant to be misrepresentative, it's just probably not worth the effort to overlay that contextual info. Especially given you guys know all that stuff already so can do some of the mental maths to even the playing field.
 
Yeah of course, the pure goals totals favours players that a) never get injured and b) play in lots of competitions, which don't have much relevance in a draft. And of course different eras of football came with different approaches to the game, so a pure comparison between 80s Serie A and 10s Premier League doesn't tell the full story. All the same caveats as usual, essentially.

That's true. It's just takes on of the factors away easily to better facilitate a more rounded discussion.
 
That's true. It's just takes on of the factors away easily to better facilitate a more rounded discussion.

Totally agree. Plus I'd just like to see it for myself. Was surprised to see e.g. Kane has already matched Shearer at his peak in terms of goals output, but I'd assumed Kane played more games as he played in more competitions. Actually they're basically identical on all counts: 136 in 185 for Shearer (1993-97) and 135 in 187 for Kane (2014-18).

Think you've tempted me enough to add in the games totals...and then maybe add in the average goals record for each decade of the European Golden Shoe, to provide a basic calibration tool to even things out.

Stats are useless.

In winning these games or in making observations about players? The idea that goals records aren't important is pretty easily disproven...
 
In winning these games or in making observations about players? The idea that goals records aren't important is pretty easily disproven...

In general, all stats not just goals :)
 
In general, all stats not just goals :)

I think you'd find very few managers, going back to the 50s and probably earlier, that would agree with you that goals are even comparable to other stats, or that the goals record of their strikers didn't matter. I'd be amazed if even 10% of managers did so. On the flipside could find plenty of quotes from elite managers talking about goals totals of their main forwards, incl. our very own Sir Alex. No-one's suggesting it should define your view, but disregarding it is something else - and something unsupported by the evidence. Each to their own but it should be acknowledged there's a reason your view isn't a common one...
 
I think you'd find very few managers, going back to the 50s and probably earlier, that would agree with you that goals are even comparable to other stats, or that the goals record of their strikers didn't matter. I'd be amazed if even 10% of managers did so. On the flipside could find plenty of quotes from elite managers talking about goals totals of their main forwards, incl. our very own Sir Alex. No-one's suggesting it should define your view, but disregarding it is something else - and something unsupported by the evidence. Each to their own but it should be acknowledged there's a reason your view isn't a common one...

All of them use other stats and data thats not my point, what i meant is that stats in isolation and without a context are useless.

Perfect example is Lukaku, we bought him based on goals per games and see how that worked out....at least im hoping we bought him based on that because thats a lesser worry then if someone at the club scouted him into details and decided he is what we need.
 
All of them use other stats and data thats not my point, what i meant is that stats in isolation and without a context are useless.

Perfect example is Lukaku, we bought him based on goals per games and see how that worked out....at least im hoping we bought him based on that because thats a lesser worry then if someone at the club scouted him into details and decided he is what we need.

70 years ago they didn't use "other stats" though - they just used goals. Bunching goals in together with stats doesn't fit from a historical perspective or a value perspective. Goals have an elevated status for obvious reasons. Obfuscating that only serves to put forward an agenda rather than make a meaningful point.

Everyone agrees stats in isolation aren't useful. So the single one-liner "stats are useless" doesn't mean anything, because it doesn't represent your real views, and it doesn't fit the context in which it was placed. If someone had said x is better than y because he scored more goals then it would make sense to put that view forward in that conversation. Instead it was dropped in at a time when two people were discussing how goals need to be viewed in context to be meaningful, without any explanation...
 
Ended up pulling together a dashboard showing the goals records of all the draft forwards + a fairly random collection of other draft strikers. Looks at the highest goals total in a single season, and their records over a 4 year peak. Worked pretty well in the end. Just makes for an easy reference point for any of these draft games.

Planned on doing some kind of stat pack for all players in my team but it's only really goals data that lends itself well to data visualisation on a small scale...plus I can't really be bothered!

Nooo you missed the player with the second highest 4 year peak and the second highest single season peak :( (although I would argue it should count as the highest peak since 36 of Seeler's 49 goals came in Oberliga, which was just one of 5 regional top divisions before Bundesliga was formed).

Great work nonetheless:)
 
Nooo you missed the player with the second highest 4 year peak and the second highest single season peak :( (although I would argue it should count as the highest peak since 36 of Seeler's 49 goals came in Oberliga, which was just one of 5 regional top divisions before Bundesliga was formed).

Great work nonetheless:)

Who?! I think there were 2-3 older players I couldn't get the season-by-season data. Might've missed a couple though! Easy to add in if people point me to the wikipedia page! :D
 
70 years ago they didn't use "other stats" though - they just used goals. Bunching goals in together with stats doesn't fit from a historical perspective or a value perspective. Goals have an elevated status for obvious reasons. Obfuscating that only serves to put forward an agenda rather than make a meaningful point.

Ok ill bite, so what exactly does the goal stat tell you? The one with the highest numbers of goals is the best striker/goalscorer? No, because they didnt all play the same amount of games.
Then we move to goals per game because thats more accurate. There are some strikers that offer other things so we can disregard that but then there is a goalscorer tag. Will we know how many times did he shoot in order to get his goals? Nope.
But there is a solution for this, we can follow a stat called shoots per goal, with that we can remove selfish ones easily but what about those with high percentage of finishes, are they shooting enough? Are they postponing shoots because xy number of reasons? There was a stat Welbeck was among best finishers in the league based on this stat and before we go into it, im a Welbeck fanboy and rate him highly as a player(not as a striker though). He is very poor in front of the goal yet stats will tell you otherwise because a) he doesnt shoot much b) most of his shoots are when there is no other option and when that is the only option in most cases he is in a very good goalscoring chance.
All that without even taking into consideration level of play, opposition, the way teams(both his and opponents) play etc.

So in the end(for me at least), stats are pointless and they are there so people of knowledge(top managers) would have an easier route to explain football to media, us fans and the players - what they think and what they want.
In percentage, how many managers would watch the game, evaluate the player and then changing their mind after they saw stat sheet?

Everyone agrees stats in isolation aren't useful. So the single one-liner "stats are useless" doesn't mean anything, because it doesn't represent your real views, and it doesn't fit the context in which it was placed. If someone had said x is better than y because he scored more goals then it would make sense to put that view forward in that conversation. Instead it was dropped in at a time when two people were discussing how goals need to be viewed in context to be meaningful, without any explanation...

sorry didnt want to undervalue your work, its just that i dont pay much attention to stats even though i used them in the past as everyone really.
 
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Ok ill bite, so what exactly does the goal stat tell you? The one with the highest numbers of goals is the best striker/goalscorer? No, because they didnt all play the same amount of games.
Then we move to goals per game because thats more accurate. There are some strikers that offer other things so we can disregard that but then there is a goalscorer tag. Will we know how many times did he shoot in order to get his goals? Nope.
But there is a solution for this, we can follow a stat called shoots per goal, with that we can remove selfish ones easily but what about those with high percentage of finishes, are they shooting enough? Are they postponing shoots because xy number of reasons? There was a stat Welbeck was among best finishers in the league based on this stat and before we go into it, im a Welbeck fanboy and rate him highly as a player(not as a striker though). He is very poor in front of the goal yet stats will tell you otherwise because a) he doesnt shoot much b) most of his shoots are when there is no other option and when that is the only option in most cases he is in a very good goalscoring chance.
All that without even taking into consideration level of play, opposition, the way teams(both his and opponents) play etc.

So in the end(for me at least), stats are pointless and they are there so people of knowledge(top managers) would have an easier route to explain football to media, us fans and the players what they think and what they want.
In percentage, how many managers would watch the game, evaluate the player and then changing their mind after they saw stat sheet?



sorry didnt want to undervalue your work, its just that i dont pay much attention to stats even though i used them in the past as everyone really.

That's an argument within an argument within an argument. You've successfully argued against your own sub-argument but it doesn't get close to answering the broader point. Let's go with your Welbeck example. Is he a good goalscorer? No. Do goal stats tell you that? Yes.

Does the understanding of how he plays and where he plays extend your understanding of his goalscoring record, and his all-round output? Of course. But on the face of it, he's a 1 in 4 goalscorer. That's held true throughout his club career. Worse than someone like Louis Saha, and comparable to someone like Emile Heskey (in his 20s). Does it tell you anything more than that? Not really. But the goals records make those basic comparisons much more easier to do. It's one data point amongst many, but the consensus for decades is that it's a particularly important one.

It's the only information we have that takes into account every game and is correlated to overall effectiveness as a striker. The alternative is making assessments based on snapshots of their career, and for many people that is limited to just highlight reels. That's full of rich information but also full of gaps. The data quality issues are obvious - high validity, (often) low reliability. Goals are the opposite of that: they're much more reliable as they aren't just selective samples, but full representations of their career, but on the flipside they only tell you so much.

No-think thinks stats tell you everything, so your strawman argument exists for one purpose only - you have a strong opinion that morphed into an agenda after having too many discussions on here about stats. We all agree that stats are flawed. Goals are the most useful, by a distance, but they're still flawed. If you can only see the flaws and can't see the value, fair enough. But your explanation of it doesn't fit the evidence. There is a strong correlation between forwards' goal totals and their valuations, and that has been there for as long as valuations have been meaningful. You can argue that everyone else is wrong, but you can't explain it away by saying it's the managers trying to explain this complicated game to the common folk. They use it themselves, indirectly and sometimes directly.

The nuance here is I'm not saying that managers pay the most money for the best goalscorers - it's just a correlation, and other factors come into play. However to deny that goals are in any way in important in assessing strikers is an opinion so far outside the norm that it would need some evidence to support it. The available evidence suggests the opposite.
 
1st Round matches

Finished:

15-Tue:
EAP/Indy/OneNil vs Physiocrat 7:10
MJJ
vs Moby 16:15

16-Wed:
P-Nut0712/Arbitrium vs Don Alfredo 6 : 9
GodShaveTheQueen vs Gio 9 : 11

To play:

18-Fri

Himannv/2mufc0 vs Skizzo
Šjor Bepo/Pat_Mustard vs Brwned

19-Saturday
Ecstatic vs Jim Beam/Invictus

21-Monday
Michaelf7777777/cubemine vs green_smiley
 
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That's an argument within an argument within an argument. You've successfully argued against your own sub-argument but it doesn't get close to answering the broader point. Let's go with your Welbeck example. Is he a good goalscorer? No. Do goal stats tell you that? Yes.

Does the understanding of how he plays and where he plays extend your understanding of his goalscoring record, and his all-round output? Of course. But on the face of it, he's a 1 in 4 goalscorer. That's held true throughout his club career. Worse than someone like Louis Saha, and comparable to someone like Emile Heskey (in his 20s). Does it tell you anything more than that? Not really. But the goals records make those basic comparisons much more easier to do. It's one data point amongst many, but the consensus for decades is that it's a particularly important one.

It's the only information we have that takes into account every game and is correlated to overall effectiveness as a striker. The alternative is making assessments based on snapshots of their career, and for many people that is limited to just highlight reels. That's full of rich information but also full of gaps. The data quality issues are obvious - high validity, (often) low reliability. Goals are the opposite of that: they're much more reliable as they aren't just selective samples, but full representations of their career, but on the flipside they only tell you so much.

No-think thinks stats tell you everything, so your strawman argument exists for one purpose only - you have a strong opinion that morphed into an agenda after having too many discussions on here about stats. We all agree that stats are flawed. Goals are the most useful, by a distance, but they're still flawed. If you can only see the flaws and can't see the value, fair enough. But your explanation of it doesn't fit the evidence. There is a strong correlation between forwards' goal totals and their valuations, and that has been there for as long as valuations have been meaningful. You can argue that everyone else is wrong, but you can't explain it away by saying it's the managers trying to explain this complicated game to the common folk. They use it themselves, indirectly and sometimes directly.

The nuance here is I'm not saying that managers pay the most money for the best goalscorers - it's just a correlation, and other factors come into play. However to deny that goals are in any way in important in assessing strikers is an opinion so far outside the norm that it would need some evidence to support it. The available evidence suggests the opposite.

So im having an agenda because i dont agree with you? Fantastic.
Where exactly did i say goals are not important in assessing strikers? and im having an agenda? Top managers pay top money for goalscorers and rightly so, only difference is i dont value goalscorers by their stat sheet.
Scoring goals is just one important segment of a striker out of many, goals alone will never make a great attacker/goalscorer so whoever is paying big bucks for those players he isnt paying because of a great goals per game stat, or if he does he ends up with "turds" like Benteke, Lukaku and co.
 
So im having an agenda because i dont agree with you? Fantastic.
Where exactly did i say goals are not important in assessing strikers? and im having an agenda? Top managers pay top money for goalscorers and rightly so, only difference is i dont value goalscorers by their stat sheet.
Scoring goals is just one important segment of a striker out of many, goals alone will never make a great attacker/goalscorer so whoever is paying big bucks for those players he isnt paying because of a great goals per game stat, or if he does he ends up with "turds" like Benteke, Lukaku and co.

My response centred around this fairly central point:

So in the end(for me at least), stats are pointless

I interpret that to mean that goals totals aren't important in assessing strikers. If you mean all other stats than goals, then I half-agree, but that's why I would distinguish between goals and other stats. Otherwise I don't know how "stats are useless" and "goals are a worthwhile thing to consider when evaluating a striker" can co-exist in the same argument. They're contradictory unless there's some hidden meaning I'm missing.

The difference you perceive is non-existent, man. No-one values goalscorers by their stat sheet. Some people value goals more than others, some value stats more than others, some value the other things Lukaku offers more than others - that shouldn't be interpreted as people judging strikers purely on their stats sheet. They just feel differently to you, and think it's useful to use stats to support or expand on their point. Your last sentence is why I described it as an agenda - it's bringing prior arguments into this argument when they have no bearing, and arguing against a point that was never made because sometime someone else argued it, and you're putting me in the same bucket as him.

If you read back to the beginning of the discussion you'll see that no one has said they "value goalscorers by their stat sheet" - and the discussion started immediately after two other people made the exact opposite point - and yet that strawman argument continues to be a feature of the discussion. I think if you were looking at this from a different perspective, you'd understand why it comes across as an agenda. Not against me, or my view, because my view isn't what you perceive it to be. Just an agenda against that position. It has nothing to do with you not agreeing with me. That's healthy in a discussion.
 
My response centred around this fairly central point:



I interpret that to mean that goals totals aren't important in assessing strikers. If you mean all other stats than goals, then I half-agree, but that's why I would distinguish between goals and other stats. Otherwise I don't know how "stats are useless" and "goals are a worthwhile thing to consider when evaluating a striker" can co-exist in the same argument. They're contradictory unless there's some hidden meaning I'm missing.

The difference you perceive is non-existent, man. No-one values goalscorers by their stat sheet. Some people value goals more than others, some value stats more than others, some value the other things Lukaku offers more than others - that shouldn't be interpreted as people judging strikers purely on their stats sheet. They just feel differently to you, and think it's useful to use stats to support or expand on their point. Your last sentence is why I described it as an agenda - it's bringing prior arguments into this argument when they have no bearing, and arguing against a point that was never made because sometime someone else argued it, and you're putting me in the same bucket as him.

If you read back to the beginning of the discussion you'll see that no one has said they "value goalscorers by their stat sheet" - and the discussion started immediately after two other people made the exact opposite point - and yet that strawman argument continues to be a feature of the discussion. I think if you were looking at this from a different perspective, you'd understand why it comes across as an agenda. Not against me, or my view, because my view isn't what you perceive it to be. Just an agenda against that position. It has nothing to do with you not agreeing with me. That's healthy in a discussion.

Your interpretation is wrong then, they are important but what is also very important is how you get to that goal total and what else are you offering to the team and those things you dont see in stats, ergo stats are pointless.

You really believe nobody values goalscorers by their stat sheet? Dont you remember this summer and the outrage by many when Glen fecking Murray wasnt called into England WC Squad? You really think all those guys wanted Murray for his hold up play?
Benteke when he was at Villa and people arguing he is a top striker(irrelevant part) because just imagine how many would he score with better service at a top club(relevant).

And if we go to the beginning you will see that i dont understand what you get with goals stat so thats why i went with "valuing goalscorers by stats" as that was the only logical thing.
 
Your interpretation is wrong then, they are important but what is also very important is how you get to that goal total and what else are you offering to the team and those things you dont see in stats, ergo stats are pointless.

You really believe nobody values goalscorers by their stat sheet? Dont you remember this summer and the outrage by many when Glen fecking Murray wasnt called into England WC Squad? You really think all those guys wanted Murray for his hold up play?
Benteke when he was at Villa and people arguing he is a top striker(irrelevant part) because just imagine how many would he score with better service at a top club(relevant).

And if we go to the beginning you will see that i dont understand what you get with goals stat so thats why i went with "valuing goalscorers by stats" as that was the only logical thing.

I still don't understand how these two points in bold fit together. Either goals are important, and therefore you do know what you get with goal stats, or they're not important.

Me posting their goal stats wasn't my way of saying "here's the best strikers, ranked on the only metric that matters". It was just a dataset to explore, of what you describe as an important component of evaluating a striker. So either our positions are almost identical or you're twisting your argument at various points to win an argument that doesn't exist. If you think they are important then you don't think they're useless - that's the only logical follow-up. You might think they're less important or more important, but you think they're important. I agree.

I didn't follow any Glenn Murray discussions over the summer, so I can't speak on their behalf. Maybe they did want him in for his goals. However that could be because they only care about goals, or they thought it was necessary to have a poacher in there to provide a totally different option to the starting forwards. When I said no-one, really I meant no-one in this thread. I can't speak for everyone on this forum, never mind every football fan. However I'm pretty sure the consensus on this forum as a whole, for at least a decade, has been "stats aren't everything" and "there's more to strikers than goals". Which is essentially the same view as you, with differences in the degree of importance placed on them.

Re: your point about Benteke, I agree with you. People misinterpret stats. I think that's because they misunderstand the context rather than because they don't try to apply any kind of context. But there's no doubt stats can be misleading. That is true of any piece of information interpreted without context, though. I made largely the same point as you in this conversation a year ago. I don't do that to point score, but to illustrate that the difference in opinion you think we have is much subtler in reality.
 
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I still don't understand how these two points in bold fit together. Either goals are important, and therefore you do know what you get with goal stats, or they're not important. Me posting their goal stats wasn't my way of saying "here's the best strikers, ranked on the only metric that matters". It was just a dataset to explore, of what you describe as an important component of evaluating a striker. So either our positions are almost identical or you're twisting your argument at various points to win an argument that doesn't exist. If you think they are important then you don't think they're useless - that's the only logical follow-up. You might think they're less important or more important, but you think they're important. I agree.

I didn't follow any Glenn Murray discussions over the summer, so I can't speak on their behalf. Maybe they did want him in for his goals. However that could be because they only care about goals, or they thought it was necessary to have a poacher in there to provide a totally different option to the starting forwards. When I said no-one, really I meant no-one in this thread. I can't speak for everyone on this forum, never mind every football fan. However I'm pretty sure the consensus on this forum as a whole, for at least a decade, has been "stats aren't everything" and "there's more to strikers than goals". Which is essentially the same view as you, with differences in the degree of importance placed on them.

focus on the whole part and not just the bold part and maybe you will understand(agreed or disagreed with it), dont know a better way of explaining it.
30/30 from Lukaku isnt the same like 30/30 from Firmino or Griezmann and in stats world they are equal.
 
focus on the whole part and not just the bold part and maybe you will understand(agreed or disagreed with it), dont know a better way of explaining it.
30/30 from Lukaku isnt the same like 30/30 from Firmino or Griezmann and in stats world they are equal.

Yes, we agree. No-one in this thread has argued the opposite, nor implied it. All I'll say is your first sentence, in full, can't be characterised as "stats are useless". The minute you assign importance to it, you've assigned a use to it - it logically can't be called useless unless it's in a specific context. The contextual characterisation is "stats are useless when used out of context". Which I'd suspect over 90% of people would agree with on any subject in any country. If you were to change the statement to simply "stats are useless", a much lower number would agree because it means a different thing.
 
That's true. It's just takes on of the factors away easily to better facilitate a more rounded discussion.

Done...

Nooo you missed the player with the second highest 4 year peak and the second highest single season peak :( (although I would argue it should count as the highest peak since 36 of Seeler's 49 goals came in Oberliga, which was just one of 5 regional top divisions before Bundesliga was formed).

Great work nonetheless:)

...and done. All here.

Agree with you that Seeler's record is difficult to assess in that context. There's also a couple of odd ones where del Piero's goals peak happened to include one season in Serie B, Keegan's goals peak happened at the end of his career with two seasons in the 2nd division, Neymar's highest goals total naturally came in the Paulistão etc. Makes it easier to see it all in one place at least!
 
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Done...



...and done. All here.

Agree with you that Seeler's record is difficult to assess in that context. There's also a couple of odd ones where del Piero's goals peak happened to include one season in Serie B, Keegan's goals peak happened at the end of his career with two seasons in the 2nd division, Neymar's highest goals total naturally came in the Paulistão etc. Makes it easier to see it all in one place at least!

Not sure if you can do this but the average goals scored in the league in bracket next to goals per week would be a good way to balance things out.
 
Not sure if you can do this but the average goals scored in the league in bracket next to goals per week would be a good way to balance things out.

Tricky for two reasons! 1: Many of these players played in multiple leagues over those 4-season peaks, some even playing in multiple leagues in a single season, and 2: I don't know of any datasets that have that combination of breadth and depth in an accessible place, and doing it across various Wikipedia pages is just a step too far in terms of time investment...

An easier barometer would be the records for the European Golden Shoe, averaged out over a decade, but it's so limited that I'm not convinced it would be that useful...
 
Tricky for two reasons! 1: Many of these players played in multiple leagues over those 4-season peaks, some even playing in multiple leagues in a single season, and 2: I don't know of any datasets that have that combination of breadth and depth in an accessible place, and doing it across various Wikipedia pages is just a step too far in terms of time investment...

An easier barometer would be the records for the European Golden Shoe, averaged out over a decade, but it's so limited that I'm not convinced it would be that useful...

Yeah fair enough, hadn't considered the first point. For the second I am sure transfermarket has something like goals per season for every competition which might be helpful but again not sure how useful the information would be. Still thats a pretty good chart just to compare strikers and make a point.
 
Hey @Pat_Mustard, are we still on for tomorrow? Just want to make sure it'll be worth getting this finished tonight.