I still don't see how all of points 1-3 (assessing average points for top four or assessing 'expected points', 'expected league positions' etc...are better measures than just accepting the actual league position though. I would understand if we were talking about one off games, or small Data sets, like results over a two-month period, but there's logic behind the old saying 'the table never lies'...because over the course of 9-months, you play every team twice and will generally finish where you deserve over the course of 38 games.
We can go back and forth on this all day. The indisputable fact is that Ole had two full seasons in-charge of Manchester Utd, and we finished 3rd and 2nd. In fact, Ole has been our only manager post-SAF to achieve back-to-back top four finishes.
On point 5, I argued vigorously at the time that Jose had massively overachieved with his squad and that 2nd was a fantastic finish. Jose is also clearly a better manager, from a tactical and coaching standpoint, than Ole. The reason form dropped off massively in Jose's final year was because he seemed to throw his toys out the pram when the Board (correctly) wouldn't risk the financial stability of the club to give him an extra £200m to really try and chase down City. At that point, he began to do stupid things, like playing Herrera at CB and getting into an unnecessary war with Paul Pogba.
Back to the matter at hand and just to re-outline my original point....we can agree that Ole was massively out of his depth tactically, when it came to transforming us from a counter-attacking side to a progressive side, capable of dominating games. However, I don't agree that means we can completely dismiss what he did manage to achieve in the two seasons prior.
For example, you must acknowledge that achieving two consecutive Champions League finishes under Ole came at a very important time. Imagine we hadn't achieved qualification under Ole in his first full-season. That would have meant no Champions League football for the 3rd season out of 4. What would that have done to our commercial revenues and ability to attract top players? Do you think we would have the likes of Varane, Sancho and Ronaldo now if we hadn't qualified for the CL twice under Ole and finished 2nd last season? Personally, I don't believe we would have, so in that respect, I think Ole has left a fair platform for a more tactically astute and experienced manager to build on