So, if we go back to the OP we've done this so far:
Right Back
Released: Valencia
Signing: AWB (almost certainly now)
Darmian will probably go as we have Dalot and Young to fill in at Right Back if required. This all seems 'done' to me and is very in line with what the initial assessment was.
Centre Back
It seems like we're at least somewhat interested in Maguire, but I can't see us matching his price tag any time soon. West Ham seem unlikely to budge on Diop and want a player in return that we aren't willing to part with. Koulibaly seems to have too high of a price tag, assuming our budget for the 4-5 players we're going to sign is such an amount that we won't go spending close to £80m~ on a single player (yet to be seen, but it's possible that James, AWB, and Maguire/Koulibaly would take up in excess of 75% of our budget with 1-2 more players we'd be wanting to sign still). I think De Ligt might have always been a bit too optimistic, as he probably wants to keep playing in the Champion's League and we won't match PSG's wages for a 19-year-old IMO. I'm not sure who else we'd turn to here, but I think settling for Toby Alderweireld makes the most sense in every regard until we can develop a young CB or poach one from elsewhere. Regardless of the CB we sign, I hope we can at least rid of Rojo. I think one CB has to go and it isn't going to be Lindelof, Smalling, or Jones, which leaves Bailly or Rojo. I'm pretty sure one is leaving.
Midfield
The only movement here is releasing Herrera and re-signing Mata. I'm not sure what this means for any additional signings and there doesn't seem to be much buzz about us being very interested in a player here unless Pogba leaves. I think Pogba is more likely to stay than leave, so I don't see much movement happening. It still should and we'll probably be linked with a big buy here eventually, but at the moment I don't really see an obvious one. Re-signing Mata is a bit of a bad omen for us buying a few quality midfielders, it says to me that we're not going to be able to get who we wanted so we've just stuck with what we have for the time being.
Forward
Signed: James
This one is difficult as I was convinced Sanchez would go, but now it could be Lukaku, or it could be neither. I wouldn't be surprised to see us go with just James now as the only forward signing. I expect that another attacking player only comes in if we sell Sanchez or Lukaku this window. Sancho was the one most talked about, but I'd be surprised if it happened. He'd be a huge signing and statement of intent without us having Champion's League football.
All in all, this is looking possible at the moment:
Out: Valencia, Herrera, Darmian, Rojo/Bailly, Sanchez/Lukaku
In: James, AWB, CB, CM, FW
I've been of the opinion that despite all the smoke, only one of de Gea, Pogba, Sanchez, or Lukaku leaves this Summer and it's far more likely to be one of the forwards.
A lot depends on our transfer budget, but I'd be amazed if it's anywhere near what most of our fans/posters expect or want it to be. Our highest net spend ever was actually only £138m, so let that sink in. Are we going to give an unproven Ole more than we gave van Gaal or Mourinho? If we do, I reckon it'll be only marginally more.
AWB + James is already about £60m. If we were to sign Maguire or Koulibaly. we're already at or close to our highest ever spend without buying any top midfield or forward players which traditionally cost more. We will need to sell quite well to keep the net spend under £200m and I'd be surprised if that is what we actually blow in one go.
